Topic: Stategy and Rational Justification / Criteria

Hey chums:
I've been using FSB on an off for a month now. I've done a little demo testing without much success. But I've been learning and finding new tips and tricks etc.

Here's the strategy I am currently demoing. When I make a strategy there are a couple things I've come to look for:
  - First has always been that it has a reasonable curve, instead of jumping all over or being significantly flat.
  - Second is that it makes a sufficient number of trades.
  - Third, I want it demonstrated that the strategy can perform in all sorts of markets. That is, I want a rugged system. And THAT is what I think I have here. In the screenshot I show how the system deals with both bull, bear, flat, bull markets. The strategy is a 5 minute strat, and it's long/short trade success correlate with these markets as seen in the 1day chart on mt4 (From now back until September 2, 2010)
  - Fourth, I like to be able to understand what is going on. I've done a lot of generating, and I have done some building by hand. Either way. If it doesn't make sense to me, I'm not too comfortable with it.

What do you think of the strat?
What do you think of the criteria?



P.S. Because of char limit the strategy will be in next post.

Re: Stategy and Rational Justification / Criteria

Forex Strategy Builder v2.56.4.0
Strategy name: Generated - Starc Bands - Steady Bands
Exported on: 2/3/2011 9:13:20 AM

Automatically generated on 1/30/2011 8:39 PM.
Out of sample testing [percent of bars]: 30%
Balance: 1098.07 USD (1/14/2011 10:40 AM  Bar: 7027)

Market: EURUSD 5 Minutes
Spread in pips: 3
Swap Long in pips: 2
Swap Short in pips: -2
Commission per lot at opening and closing in pips: 0
Slippage in pips: 1

Use account % for margin round to whole lots
Maximum open lots: 20
Entry lots: 2% of the account for margin
Adding lots: 1% of the account for margin
Reducing lots: 1% of the account for margin

Intrabar scanning: Accomplished
Interpolation method: Pessimistic scenario
Ambiguous bars: 3
Tested bars: 29837
Balance: 618 pips (1618.11 USD)
Minimum account: 0 pips (1000.00 USD)
Maximum drawdown: 128 pips (128.22 USD)
Time in position: 97 %

A same direction signal - Does nothing
An opposite direction signal - Does nothing
Permanent Stop Loss - 1000
Permanent Take Profit - 300

[Opening Point of the Position]
Starc Bands
     Enter long at the Upper Band
     Smoothing method  -  Simple
     Base price  -  Close
     MA period  -  12
     Multiplier  -  1.77
     Use previous bar value  -  Yes

[Closing Point of the Position]
Steady Bands
     Exit long at the Lower Band
     Smoothing method  -  Smoothed
     Base price  -  Typical
     MA period  -  160
     Margin in pips  -  990
     Use previous bar value  -  Yes

Post's attachments

Generated - Starc Bands - Steady Bands.xml 2.76 kb, 45 downloads since 2011-02-03 

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Re: Stategy and Rational Justification / Criteria

My comments/questions:

*Risk/reward ratio not great, if you make a losing trade, it will take more than 3 trades to make up the loss, assuming tp/sl get hit before the lower band.
*Post the strategy overview as well (with additional statistics turned on, so we know the Sharpe value).
*How does it behave on other pairs? Many believe that a robust strat shows good results on different pairs.
*If you enlarge the data horizon to, say, 1st of January 2010, is the strat working similarly as later?
*Drawdown - compare DD shown in backtest and in demo, is there remarkable difference?
*I don't quite agree with you that your strat works in different market conditions, in the equity chart it's visible that on certain periods long trades are profitable and short aren't.
*How often is strat optimized?

Since I started working with FSB I'm also trying to crack the code, so to speak. Understand what is going on and how to successfully find and implement an edge, and the questions above reflect a part of my criteria, hope you'll find them helpful.

Re: Stategy and Rational Justification / Criteria

Excellent feedback footon.

Re: Stategy and Rational Justification / Criteria

Wow !!!
Really nice strategy build up . . . !!!
That is just excellent .

Re: Stategy and Rational Justification / Criteria

This Strategy sounds to be really nice, But I want to know that have you implemented it so far? And if so, what are the results...!! So that others could also consider it.