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Forex Software → Market Analysis → Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

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1,176 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDCHF is on the rise: the US dollar leaves no alternatives

The USDCHF pair is rising, with investors favouring the US dollar. More details in our analysis for 12 November 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

  • The USDCHF pair has gained significantly

  • The SNB may lower the interest rate by 50 basis points at once at its December meeting

  • USDCHF forecast for 12 November 2024: 0.8850

Fundamental analysis

The USDCHF rate is rising to 0.8811.

In this pair, as in USDJPY, the strong market bias towards the US dollar leaves the second currency with little support. Investors believe that the protectionist policies promoted by the administration of the elected US President, Donald Trump, will drive up inflation. This will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher than expected, favouring the USD.

Switzerland’s inflation eased to a three-year low, reaching 0.6% in October.

This data has heightened expectations of an interest rate cut from the Swiss National Bank at its December meeting, with borrowing costs potentially reduced by 50 basis points at once.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,177 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDCAD: the pair continues to reach new highs

The latest data from the US indices suggest that the US dollar is likely to strengthen further. Discover more in our analysis for 13 November 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

  • The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index: previously at 48.41

  • US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) in October: previously at 0.3%, projected at 0.3%

  • US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y): previously at 3.3%, projected at 3.3%

  • US CPI (m/m): previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2%

  • USDCAD forecast for 13 November 2024: 1.4040

Fundamental analysis

The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer sentiment based on a target group survey. The index fell to 48.41 last month, indicating negative consumer sentiment. Given that the index has declined over the past three months, the forecast for 13 November 2024 may be unfavourable for the Canadian dollar as the actual reading may fall again.

The CPI reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services and is a key indicator for the direction of purchases and US inflation. Readings below the forecast are considered negative for the US dollar, while stronger-than-expected figures are considered positive.

The CPI is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Expectations that the estimates will align with actual data are low so far. A better-than-expected performance in US fundamental indicators could further boost the USDCAD rate.

Fundamental analysis for 13 November 2024 indicates that the US CPI (m/m) is projected to remain at last month’s level of 0.2%. While such figures are encouraging for the national currency, they are not yet indicative of a significant positive shift.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,178 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD: the euro falls along with the eurozone’s industrial production

The decline in the eurozone’s industrial production and the stagnation of GDP growth may further weaken the euro against the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 14 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Eurozone Q3 GDP (y/y): previously at 0.9%, projected at 0.9%

  • Eurozone industrial production (m/m): previously at 1.8%, projected at - 1.3%

  • US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1,892 thousand, projected at 1,880 thousand

  • EURUSD forecast for 14 November 2024: 1.0540 and 1.0505

Fundamental analysis

GDP reflects the total value of all goods and services produced in a country; considering only end products, excluding raw material costs.

Fundamental analysis for 14 November 2024 shows that eurozone GDP may remain around 0.9%, consistent with the previous period. GDP has demonstrated modest growth over the past few months, suggesting that stronger-than-forecast data could support the euro.

European industrial production reflects the eurozone’s total output, including utility services, industrial plants, and mines. The previous reading was 1.8%, and the forecast for 14 November 2024 suggests a decline to -1.3%. Industrial production in the eurozone continues to contract. Negative readings could be due to expensive energy tariffs, forcing companies to reduce production or even shut down, further adding negative pressure on the euro.

US continuing jobless claims reflect the number of recurring claims for unemployment benefits. Fundamental analysis for 14 November 2024 indicates that claims may decrease to 1,880 thousand. Compared to the previous period, the forecast appears favourable for the US dollar. The actual reading may differ from expectations, but if it exceeds the last figure, it will support the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,179 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY develops a rally: the yen is again a victim of market developments

The USDJPY pair continues its ascent as investors assess Japan’s GDP data. Discover more in our analysis for 15 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair moves in line with the rally

  • Investors assess the latest Japanese GDP statistics

  • USDJPY forecast for 15 November 2024: 157.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate surged to 156.38 on Friday.

The market is scrutinising today’s statistics. Japan’s economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, a significant slowdown compared to the 0.5% growth in Q2. Nevertheless, this marks the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. On a year-on-year basis, the economy expanded by 0.9%, significantly below the 2.2% level of Q2.

Uncertainty remains high regarding the normalisation of the Bank of Japan’s policy. Mixed statistics and recent political developments suggest an even gloomier outlook. Making critical decisions under such conditions proves challenging.

The USDJPY forecast is so far in favour of the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,180 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD remains subdued: the market continues to favour the US dollar

The EURUSD pair starts the week quietly, with the US dollar maintaining its strength. Find out more in our analysis for 18 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair opened the week on a stable note

  • All market sympathies are with the US dollar as investors expect reduced activity from the Federal Reserve

  • EURUSD forecast for 18 November 2024: 1.0400

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0531 on Monday morning.

Last week ended with the most substantial weekly gain for the US currency in a month, driven by a global reassessment of expectations regarding future US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors are factoring in President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-inflationary policies and adjusting their outlook accordingly.

This benefits the US dollar, as heightened inflationary pressures would compel the Fed to maintain higher interest rates than previously anticipated.

Last Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the regulator need not rush into cutting rates, causing a widespread revision of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December decision.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,181 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: the yen may continue to lose ground

The increase in US building permits and a Fed official’s speech may support the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 19 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • US Housing Starts in October: previously at 1.354 million, projected at 1.340 million

  • US building permits in October: previously at 1.425 million, projected at 1.440 million

  • Speech by Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Schmid

  • USDJPY forecast for 19 November 2024: 157.60

Fundamental analysis

Housing Starts, representing the total number of projects initiated during the reporting month, are compiled from surveys of property owners and construction companies. These statistics cover approximately 95% of all housing projects in the country. The data are adjusted for seasonal factors and weather conditions to improve accuracy.

This indicator is published during the second ten-day period of each month as part of the general construction report, including data on building permits and completed projects. According to the fundamental analysis for 19 November 2024, construction activity may decline to 1.340 million from the previous reporting period. However, this decrease is not critical and is unlikely to impact the USDJPY rate.

Building permits reflect the seasonally adjusted number of permits issued to start new projects. These figures represent an annualised housing construction rate and should be interpreted as the projected number of permits for the year if current trends persist. This indicator is considered a vital metric of the housing market and a reflection of the overall state of the economy. As a leading metric for one of the most critical economic sectors, building permits provide insight into broader economic trends. The forecast for 19 November 2024 anticipates an increase in issued building permits to 1.440 million. Although the rise is modest, it is a positive factor for the US dollar.

Fed official Jeffrey Schmid, the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is scheduled to deliver a speech by the end of the US trading session. His report may include data on the near-term development of the US monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,182 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Lower BoC rate expectations add to pressure on the USDCAD

The USDCAD rate is testing the critical support area. Find out more in our analysis for 20 November 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

  • The strengthening of the Canadian dollar is due to a rise in Canada’s inflation to 2% in October 2024

  • Prices increased across five of eight CPI components, primarily driven by petrol price growth

  • Weaker expectations of a substantial Bank of Canada rate cut are putting pressure on the USDCAD currency pair

  • USDCAD forecast for 20 November 2024: 1.3900

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is bouncing off the 1.3950 support level. The currency pair is slightly correcting after declining for two consecutive trading sessions. The US dollar lost over 1% amid buyers’ failure to gain a foothold above the 1.4100 level. The current strengthening of the Canadian dollar is fuelled by inflation data, which eases expectations about the size of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts.

Canada’s inflation rose to 2% in October. Prices increased across five of eight CPI components, primarily driven by petrol price growth. The return of inflation to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target suggests that rate cuts will continue, but the size of cuts will depend on the analysis of economic data. According to today’s USDCAD forecast, lower expectations of a substantial BoC rate cut will further pressure the currency pair, contributing to a potential breakout below the key 1.3950 support level.

Market expectations about the Fed’s policy also changed. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised economic resilience, which allows the regulator to maintain a restrained approach to interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a December rate cut decreased to 58.9% from 76.8% a month ago.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,183 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD halted its decline: correction is complete; the market awaits news

The EURUSD pair has halted its decline. The market is awaiting greater clarity on Trump’s policy. Find out more in our analysis for 21 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair is no longer in a downward trend

  • The market is analysing what to expect from the new US White House administration

  • EURUSD forecast for 21 November 2024: 1.0464

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0552 on Thursday, following yesterday’s decline.

Investors are exercising caution as they await further data on the future actions of US President-elect Donald Trump. Additionally, forecasts of a less aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cut have already been priced into the primary currency pair.

The market needs to interpret what exactly Trump’s campaign promises mean not only for the US but also for the rest of the world.

The US dollar has strengthened by over 2% since the US presidential election.

The EURUSD forecast for today remains neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,184 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) rises, reaching 2,700 USD

XAUUSD prices continue strengthening significantly after forming a local trough and reversing upwards. Further growth may follow a brief correction. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 22 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: US statistics on the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index are due today

  • Current trend: strong upward movement

  • XAUUSD forecast for 22 November 2024: 2,643 and 2,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction and reversed upwards, displaying significant growth towards the long-term trend. This growth is supported by demand from central banks, the Federal Reserve’s interest policy of cutting interest rates, and escalating global geopolitical tensions.

A crucial release of US statistics is expected today – the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Weaker-than-forecast statistics could exert pressure on the US dollar and support XAUUSD. Conversely, stronger figures may prompt a correction in the pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,185 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD is in a consolidation phase following a sharp decline: the market is too nervous

The euro hit a new low before recovering. Investors are observing signs of a slowdown in European economies. Find out more in our analysis for 25 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair reached a new low and recovered

  • Investors expect a swift reduction in ECB interest rates to support weak economies

  • EURUSD forecast for 25 November 2024: 1.0500 and 1.0414

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0476 on Monday after dropping to 1.0331 earlier.

A rather gloomy business survey triggered the euro’s decline, which revealed a contraction in the two largest European economies – France and Germany – in November. The market believes that the re-election of Donald Trump as US president will further weaken the already fragile European economy. Potential import duties could hurt Germany’s export-oriented economy. These risks are significant, putting substantial pressure on the EUR rate.

As a result, the market is betting that the ECB will lower interest rates more aggressively to address the economic weakness. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to take a more cautious approach. An increase in the interest rate differential will make the euro less appealing, boosting demand for dollar-dominated assets.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,186 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Swiss franc declines: markets again favour the US dollar

The USDCHF pair shows moderate gains with accelerated growth potential. Find out more in our analysis for 26 November 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

  • The USDCHF pair is poised for growth

  • The SNB prioritises low inflation

  • USDCHF forecast for 26 November 2024: 0.8815

Fundamental analysis

The USDCHF rate is hovering around 0.8863.

The Swiss franc recently fell to its mid-July 2024 low against the US dollar due to the rapid strengthening of the US currency. Strong expectations persist in the market that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate cuts due to robust economic data. Additionally, market participants are overly cautious, given the significant impact of US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies.

The Swiss National Bank’s inflation target ranges between 0% and 2%. The SNB intends to prioritise maintaining low inflation as the foundation for its monetary policy.

Annual inflation in Switzerland fell for the third consecutive month in October, reaching 0.6%, marking its lowest level since June 2021.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,187 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDCAD: pressure on the Canadian dollar intensifies

The USDCAD rate strengthens despite yesterday’s rebound from the key resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 27 November 2024

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

  • The US Federal Reserve noted uncertainty in economic data, which complicates interest rate decisions

  • The Bank of Canada is considering further rate cuts; however, the chances of a 50-basis-point cut have decreased due to rising inflation

  • Canada’s core inflation grew to 2.6% in October, exceeding expectations

  • Canada’s wholesale sales increased by 0.5% in October but fell short of forecasts

  • USDCAD forecast for 27 November 2024: 1.4011

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate has risen for the fourth consecutive trading session, showing a steady bullish trend. Buyers are likely preparing to retest the crucial 1.4110 resistance level. The Canadian dollar fell to 2020 lows after Donald Trump threatened to raise Canadian import tariffs by 20%.

The Federal Reserve emphasised the difficulty of making decisions amid uncertainty in evolving data and the impact of a neutral interest rate. The policy remains dependent on economic trends, so interest rates are expected to remain elevated if inflation stays steady and be reduced if the labour market weakens. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December rose to 62.8% from 55.9% a week ago.

The Bank of Canada is poised to lower the interest rate next month. However, the likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut decreased after the release of inflation data. Core inflation, the gauge preferred by the Bank of Canada, rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, exceeding forecasts. According to today’s USDCAD forecast, lower expectations of an aggressive Bank of Canada rate cut could limit the potential for further US dollar strength.

Meanwhile, Canada’s wholesale sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in October, following a 0.8% rise in September, but missed the forecast of 0.9%. The growth was partly due to increased sales in the automotive sector, including spare parts and accessories.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,188 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY is under pressure amid expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike

The USDJPY rate is recovering after falling for two days. Discover more in our analysis for 28 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The Japanese yen has strengthened by over 2.6% in the past two days due to expectations of a monetary policy tightening by the BoJ

  • The Bank of Japan’s chief hinted at the likelihood of a December interest rate hike to support the yen

  • Market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike in Japan stand at 60%

  • Analysts expect Tokyo’s core CPI to rise to 2.3% in October

  • USDJPY forecast for 28 November 2024: 152.90

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rises following the bears’ failure to secure a position below the 151.25 support level. The Japanese yen has strengthened by more than 2.6% in the past two days due to expectations that the BoJ may raise the interest rate as early as next month. The US dollar is under additional pressure from a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December. In addition, key US inflation data aligned with market expectations, signalling no changes in the Fed’s monetary policy.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had earlier referred to the likelihood of a December interest rate hike, citing the need to support the yen. Market players expect a 25-basis-point rate hike in Japan with a 60% probability, well above the 50% recorded a week ago. Most analysts share these expectations.

Investors are also eagerly awaiting Friday’s release of Japan’s inflation data, which may affect the BoJ’s further actions. Tokyo's core CPI is projected to rise to 2.3% in October from 1.8%, heightening expectations of monetary policy tightening. Against this backdrop, today’s USDJPY forecast shows that the Japanese yen will likely strengthen further.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,189 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) is up, rising above 2,650 USD

This week, XAUUSD prices received support from buyers at the 2,600 USD level and reversed upwards, with growth likely to continue. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 29 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: the US markets are closed as the country celebrates Thanksgiving Day

  • Current trend: Upward movement

  • XAUUSD forecast for 29 November 2024: 2,650 and 2,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes completed a downward correction and confidently reversed upwards, resuming the long-term uptrend. Gold remains in strong demand from central banks and investors, supported by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing and the escalation of local military conflicts. The decline in the US dollar against major currencies also contributed to Gold’s growth this week.

With US markets closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, no macroeconomic data is expected to be released. Without major news, Gold may continue to strengthen moderately within the current technical framework.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,190 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

GBPUSD declines at the beginning of the week as the news lull ends

The British pound sterling is undergoing a correction after its recent rise and is trading at 1.2691, as the impact of the US dollar has returned in full force. Find out more in our analysis for 2 December 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The GBPUSD pair rose briefly before pausing

  • The extended US holidays provided support for the pound’s rise

  • GBPUSD forecast for 2 December 2024: 1.2635 and 1.2763

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate has dropped to 1.2691.

At the end of last week, the GBP strengthened against the US dollar as overseas investors observed an extended Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volumes were low, but November proved to be highly volatile.

However, the pound’s November losses against the US dollar were less pronounced than the euro’s. The GBP’s resilience was supported by expectations of a more decisive monetary policy from the Bank of England and the threat of tariff complications from the new US administration. For the pound, the absence of news was indeed good news.

The GBPUSD forecast appears moderate.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,191 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY resumes growth, but the yen will not retreat easily

The USDJPY pair rose to 150.06 on Tuesday. Despite sustained pressure, the Japanese yen remains resilient. Find out more in our analysis for 3 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair recorded modest gains

  • Investors remain optimistic about a December Bank of Japan interest rate hike

  • USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2024: 150.70

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY exchange rate rose to 150.06.

Despite local pressure from the US dollar, the yen remains close to a seven-week high. The optimism is attributed to expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in December.

Last weekend, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that further rate hikes were imminent as economic data aligned with expectations.

Investors currently assess the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike this month at 60%, compared to no more than 50% last week.

The USDJPY forecast is neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,192 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD remains in a consolidation phase, with crucial news ahead

The EURUSD pair is stable around the 1.0502 level. The market is conserving strength ahead of US statistics. More details in our analysis for 4 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair remains in a consolidation phase

  • Market participants are awaiting November US employment reports

  • EURUSD forecast for 4 December 2024: 1.0628

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0502 in the middle of the week.

The primary currency pair has seen only modest movements in recent days. Political turmoil in France has already been priced in, but the market still seeks safe-haven assets, keeping the euro relatively low.

The release of US labour market data supported the US dollar. The number of job vacancies in the US increased moderately in October while layoffs decreased, which is a positive sign for the sector as a whole.

The market’s focus now shifts to the ADP private sector employment change data due on Wednesday and a large batch of employment statistics on Friday.

The EURUSD forecast remains moderate.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,193 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

AUDUSD halted its decline: even sellers take a break

The AUDUSD pair has paused around 0.6434. The Australian dollar could tumble at any moment. Find out more in our analysis for 5 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The AUDUSD pair halted its decline

  • The market capitalised on trade surplus statistics to pause AUD sales

  • AUDUSD forecast for 5 December 2024: 0.6480

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6434 before stabilising.

The latest data revealed that Australia recorded its largest trade surplus in eight months this October, thanks to a recovery in exports.

However, the AUD remains near a four-month low against the US dollar as the market continues to factor in weak GDP data and anticipates an imminent easing of monetary policy by the RBA.

On Wednesday, the AUDUSD pair declined by almost 1%.

The AUDUSD forecast appears bleak, with sellers likely to return to the market at any moment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,194 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating within a range ahead of nonfarm payrolls

XAUUSD prices are consolidating within a narrow range near the 2,650 USD level as market participants await US employment statistics. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 6 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: market participants await US labour market data, with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate due today

  • Current trend: consolidating within a range

  • XAUUSD forecast for 6 December 2024: 2,700 and 2,600

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to hold firmly above 2,600 USD. The asset appears poised to complete its correction and move towards annual highs. The US labour market statistics released during the American trading session could drive further price increases.

The data released by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday showed an increase of 146 thousand in US jobs, which was nearly in line with the forecast of +150 thousand.

The market awaits another batch of US employment statistics today: nonfarm payrolls (the economy is projected to show an increase of 200 thousand jobs) and the unemployment rate (projected at 4.2%). Better-than-forecast data will support the US dollar, likely extending the correction in the XAUUSD pair. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could trigger a return to Gold’s annual highs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,195 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD declines to 1.0539: investors avoid risk

The EURUSD pair is under selling pressure, with the market favouring the US dollar again. Find out more in our analysis for 9 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair has been declining for the second consecutive trading session

  • This week’s US inflation report will be the last statistics to be released before the Federal Reserve meeting

  • EURUSD forecast for 9 December 2024: 1.0535, 1.0480, and 1.0460

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.0539 on Monday.

The US dollar earlier came under pressure as investors were selling the USD following the release of US labour market statistics for November. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. It remained unchanged for two consecutive months and has only now shifted in a negative direction. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 227 thousand, while a month ago, the indicator increased by a symbolic 36 thousand.

Monthly job gains in the past four reports averaged 150 thousand. The figure is less than required to provide jobs for the constantly growing population.

This week, the focus will be on the inflation release, the last significant report before the December Federal Reserve meeting.

The EURUSD forecast appears negative.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,196 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Brent is trading below 72.00 USD following the OPEC+ meeting

Brent is trading within a broad sideways range, with prices currently hovering around 72.00 USD. Market participants did not receive significant signals from the OPEC+ meeting. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 10 December 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

  • Current trend: trading within a broad consolidation range

  • Market focus: the OPEC+ decision aligned with market expectations

  • Brent forecast for 10 December 2024: 72.00 and 70.00

Fundamental analysis

At Thursday’s meeting, OPEC+ decided to keep oil output at current levels for Q1 2025. The group plans to gradually increase production starting from Q2 and continue this policy until September 2026. This decision aligned with market expectations, resulting in no strong reaction from oil quotes, with prices remaining in the 70.00-76.00 USD sideways range.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release US oil stock statistics today, with data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due tomorrow. A reduction in oil reserves may support Brent prices, whereas an increase in the figures could push the asset lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,197 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY halted its rise, pausing ahead of a new wave of growth

The USDJPY pair is consolidating around 151.60. The prerequisites for further growth remain in place. Discover more in our analysis for 11 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair halted after a wave of growth

  • The local strengthening of the US dollar is exerting pressure on the yen

  • USDJPY forecast for 11 December 2024: 150.77

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 151.60 and then paused to consolidate.

The Japanese yen remains near a two-week low against the US dollar, as expectations surrounding the release of the US inflation report are supporting the USD.

Japan’s Tankan Index data was negative in December, while the BSI in the manufacturing sector improved in Q4 2024. Producer price statistics were also released, showing Japan’s fastest growth in 16 months. The focus of yen supporters has shifted to the December Bank of Japan meeting. While the market anticipates an interest rate hike, doubts about it remain significant.

The USDJPY forecast does not rule out further price increases.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,198 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

AUDUSD: the Australian dollar has a chance of strengthening

Amid positive data from Australia, the AUDUSD rate may continue its ascent to the 0.6444 level. More details in our analysis for 12 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Australia’s employment change in November: previously at 12.2 thousand, currently at 35.6 thousand

  • Australia’s unemployment rate in November: previously at 4.1%, currently at 3.9%

  • US initial jobless claims: previously at 224 thousand, projected at 221 thousand

  • AUDUSD forecast for 12 December 2024: 0.6444

Fundamental analysis

Australia’s employment change reflects the difference in the number of officially employed citizens over the reporting period. The previous value was 12.2 thousand, while the actual figure came in at 35.6 thousand, exceeding both expectations and the earlier reading. This could indicate some improvement in Australia’s economic climate. Following the release of the employment data, the AUDUSD pair underwent a correction.

Australia’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, down from the previous reading. Fundamental analysis for 12 December 2024 shows that this improvement in unemployment figures became a positive factor for the Australian dollar.

The forecast for 12 December 2024 suggests that US initial jobless claims for the previous week are likely to fall to 221 thousand from the previous 224 thousand. The decrease is expected to be minor, serving as a neutral factor for the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,199 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Weak US unemployment data supports a decline in EURUSD

Despite the ECB decision, the EURUSD rate remains under pressure, currently standing at 1.0461. Discover more in our analysis for 13 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The US dollar remains under pressure even after a 25-basis-point ECB interest rate cut

  • US initial jobless claims rose to 242 thousand, reaching the highest level since mid-October

  • US PPI increased by 3.0%, marking the most substantial growth since February 2023

  • Traders expect the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 0.25% next week, with the probability estimated at 96.4%

  • EURUSD forecast for 13 December 2024: 1.0460 and 1.0410

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining for the sixth consecutive trading session, with sellers seeking to establish a foothold below the 1.0465 support level. The US dollar remains under pressure despite the ECB reducing the interest rate by 25 basis points. Markets are now likely to expect another 25-basis-points cut by the Federal Reserve next week. However, the US regulator’s future actions in 2025 remain uncertain, which adds pressure to the pair according to today’s EURUSD forecast.

The ECB reiterated its commitment to reducing inflation to its medium-term target. However, its press release omitted the statement regarding keeping rates at restrictive levels as long as necessary. The regulator noted that future interest rate decisions would be based on economic data analysis at each meeting without pre-committing to a predetermined course of action.

Meanwhile, the US initial jobless claims rose by 18 thousand to 242 thousand, the highest level since mid-October. This data reinforced expectations of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with the markets estimating the odds at 96.4%. At the same time, producer prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, marking the most substantial increase since February 2023 and greatly exceeding analysts’ expectations. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.4%, matching October’s pace and exceeding the average expert forecast of 3.2%.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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