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Forex Software → Market Analysis → Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

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1,151 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: the strong US labour market supports growth in the pair

The USDJPY rate is approaching the 149.35 resistance level amid uncertainty regarding the BoJ policy. Discover more in our analysis for 7 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The number of US jobs increased by 254,000 in September, marking the highest gain over the past six months

  • The likelihood of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve interest rate cut decreased to 4.3%

  • Japan’s Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest level since October 2020

  • USDJPY forecast for 7 October 2024: 145.95, 144.30, and 142.68

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has decreased significantly since last week’s surge. The yen came under pressure due to statements from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who called for caution regarding further BoJ interest rate hikes, considering the current economic conditions.

The additional weakening of the yen is caused by the strong US employment report released on Friday. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, showing the most substantial growth over the past six months and reducing market expectations of a potential significant interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut in November decreased to 4.3%, while the odds of a softer 25-basis-point reduction increased to 95.7%. Such expectations in today’s USDJPY forecast may prompt buyers to break above the 149.35 resistance level.

Japan’s Leading Economic Index, which evaluates the prospects for the months ahead, decreased to 106.7 points in August 2024 from 109.3 in July, reaching its lowest level since October 2020. Japan’s Coincident Index, which includes data such as production output, employment, and retail sales, dropped to 113.5 in August from 117.2 a month earlier, marking the lowest reading since February.

Traders are currently focusing on the upcoming wage data in Japan, which may impact inflationary expectations and the BoJ’s monetary policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,152 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Brent declines moderately following a surge to 81.00 USD

Brent prices surged to 81.00 USD amid increasing tensions in the Middle East. Growth may continue after a minor correction. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 8 October 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

  • US data: the market awaits the API crude oil stock report today

  • Current trend: correcting as part of the uptrend

  • Brent forecast for 8 October 2024: 81.00 and 77.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes are experiencing a strong upward rally (rising by about 10% in a week) following escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to release US crude oil stock data today. A decline in inventories may support Brent prices, while an increase may conversely push the asset price down.

The market is also awaiting US inflation statistics this week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday and Friday. Oil will likely react to the US stock market’s response to inflation data. A rise will propel Brent’s price, while a decrease will push it down.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,153 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY is in a consolidation phase: the market requires new signals

The USDJPY pair has been holding in a range for the third day. Investors are cautious. Find out more in our analysis for 9 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair has started to consolidate

  • Investors are conserving strength in anticipation of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes

  • USDJPY forecast for 9 October 2024: 146.36, 144.20, and 143.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is stable, hovering around 148.34 on Wednesday.

Although interesting signals emerge, Japan’s domestic statistics do not affect the JPY trajectory. The Tankan sentiment index rose to 7 points in October, above the forecasted 6, which is a positive signal for Japan’s economy.

Investors are awaiting the release of the previous US Federal Reserve meeting minutes today to gain insights into the regulator’s true intentions regarding the future of interest rates. Current expectations now suggest two rate cuts before the end of the year, of 25 basis points each. The minutes will reveal whether this perspective will persist or be revised to a more aggressive stance.

The USDJPY forecast appears neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,154 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD appears weak: US inflation data ahead

The EURUSD pair declined markedly. The market believes in the US dollar’s “exceptionalism”. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair fell to a low seen on 13 August

  • The market increasingly favours the US dollar

  • EURUSD forecast for 10 October 2024: 1.0905

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating around 1.0943 on Thursday.

This is the euro’s lowest level since 13 August. As they say on the stock market, investors were again drawn to the idea of the US currency’s “exceptionalism”.

According to the latest US Federal Reserve meeting minutes released yesterday, the regulator remains focused on maintaining the health of the labour market. The US economy is growing strongly, providing solid support for the USD position.

Interesting US inflation data for September will be released today. The weekly jobless claims report is also worth noting.

The EURUSD forecast remains cautious for now.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,155 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) reversed upwards from 2,600 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction, with the chart showing an upward reversal. The market will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. More details and insights are available in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: market participants are awaiting today’s US inflation statistics, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release

  • Current trend: the pair is trading in an uptrend

  • USD forecast for 11 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,670

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction, receiving active support from buyers near 2,600 USD. Gold continues to attract demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Yesterday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data broadly aligned with market expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is due today. A weaker-than-expected reading could exert pressure on the USD and help strengthen gold. Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure would support the US dollar, potentially pushing XAUUSD prices lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,156 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) continues its ascent, rising above 2,650 USD

XAUUSD price has completed a downward correction and decisively reversed upwards. The price is expected to continue ascending and potentially hit a new all-time high of 2,685 USD. Discover more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 14 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: last week’s US inflation statistics came out roughly in line with forecasts

  • Current trend: trading in an uptrend

  • XAUUSD forecast for 14 October 2024: 2,630 and 2,685

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have completed a downward correction and reversed upwards in line with the trend, receiving active support from buyers at around 2,600 USD. Gold is in demand from global central banks and investors, with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding to its appeal.

Last week’s US inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), roughly aligned with forecasts. The stock market responded to the released statistics with a rise, and gold also strengthened against the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,157 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD declines for the third consecutive week

The EURUSD rate continues to edge down, falling below 1.0900. Discover more in our analysis for 15 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 86.8%

  • The ECB is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%

  • EURUSD forecast for 15 October 2024: 1.0890 and 1.0850

Fundamental analysis

The euro continues to trade under pressure from strong US labour market data as markets expect the Fed to reduce interest rates at a more measured pace.

At its Thursday meeting, the ECB is expected to lower the interest rate from 3.50% to 3.25%. The projected rate cut pressures the European currency, pushing the EURUSD pair down.

Today, the market will focus on the euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), industrial production growth rates, and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. Depending on the data released, volatility in the EURUSD pair may increase sharply.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,158 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: BoJ’s uncertain stance and weak data put pressure on the yen

The USDJPY rate rose slightly on Wednesday but remains below the resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 16 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • Seiji Adachi’s speech did not significantly impact the volatility of the USDJPY pair

  • According to the BoJ official, interest rate hikes should be gradual to avoid the risk of deflation

  • Japan’s machinery orders fell by 1.9% in August

  • USDJPY forecast for 16 October 2024: 150.22, 151.30, and 153.22

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate continues to test the 149.45 resistance level. However, buyers have yet to secure a position above it. The speech by BoJ official Seiji Adachi, which could have shed light on the BoJ’s future monetary policy moves, did not significantly impact the currency pair’s movements.

In his speech, Adachi said that the interest rate should be raised gradually to avoid the risk of deflation. He noted that the Japanese economy has already created conditions for normalising monetary policy, but slowing global demand requires a thorough assessment. The regulator’s official also emphasised that it is necessary to maintain a loose financial policy until inflation reaches a stable level.

Meanwhile, machinery orders in Japan decreased by 1.9% in August 2024, although analysts expected a 1.5% increase. This represents the fifth contraction this year. Orders declined by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly contrasting with the 8.7% growth in July. Therefore, this data within today’s USDJPY forecast may exert additional pressure on the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,159 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

AUDUSD rises on positive employment data

The AUDUSD rate remains above the EMA-200 line, thanks to the stable Australian economy. Discover more in our analysis for 17 October 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Analysts expect the RBA not to lower interest rates until the first half of next year

  • The Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the forecast of 25,000

  • Australia’s labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September

  • AUDUSD forecast for 17 October 2024: 0.6645

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate rose on Thursday after falling for three consecutive days. A robust employment report supported the Australian dollar, reinforcing the hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy.

The data showed that the Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 25,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The labour force participation rate increased to a record 67.2% in September, up from 67.1% in August and above analysts’ forecasts of 67.1%. The results indicate the labour market’s resilience, reducing the likelihood of an RBA interest rate cut in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the central bank remains committed to controlling inflation amid steady price growth. According to analysts (given the strengthening labour market), the regulator will not lower interest rates until the first half of next year, which may support the Australian dollar as part of today’s AUDUSD forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,160 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: Japan’s inflation eases but remains above the BoJ’s target

The USDJPY rate is hovering around an 11-week high. Find out more in our analysis for 18 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, the lowest level since April

  • Tokyo’s core inflation index increased by 2.4% in September, remaining above the BoJ’s 2.0% target

  • Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, warned against excessive yen volatility

  • USDJPY forecast for 18 October 2024: 151.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is undergoing a correction after rising for two days. The yen remains under pressure due to easing inflation in the country, which weakens the national currency despite expectations that the BoJ will tighten its monetary policy. According to today’s USDJPY forecast, the currency pair will likely continue its upward trend.

Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, down from 3.0% in August. This is the first time inflation has slowed since March and the lowest since April 2024. The core inflation index, closely monitored by the BoJ, rose by 2.4%, marking the lowest reading since April after a 2.8% increase in August. The figure has remained above the regulator’s 2.0% target for 30 months. Inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.1% in September, up from 2.0% in August.

Bank of Japan Policy Board member Seiji Adachi recently noted that the pace of interest rate hikes should be moderate, warning against abrupt policy changes due to uncertainty in the global economy and the country’s wage growth rate. At the same time, the yen’s weakness prompted Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, to remind the Japanese government that it is closely watching foreign exchange movements and to emphasise that excessive volatility is undesirable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,161 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD: the resilience of the US economy supports the US dollar

The EURUSD rate declines after rebounding from the 1.0870 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 21 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The US dollar has strengthened for the third consecutive week amid expectations of a softer Federal Reserve rate cut

  • Markets estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November at 90.9%

  • This week, investors are focusing on corporate reports and risks related to the US election

  • EURUSD forecast for 21 October 2024: 1.0820 and 1.077

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction after Friday’s rise, remaining below the EMA-200 level, indicating persistent pressure from sellers. The US dollar has strengthened for three consecutive weeks amid expectations of a softer Fed rate-cutting cycle and higher chances of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming elections.

Analysts note that the current US interest rate helps strengthen the US currency. At the same time, rate cuts in other countries only add to the USD’s appeal. Experts believe this trend may persist until the election, and if Donald Trump wins, it will likely continue. The markets currently estimate the likelihood of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in November at 90.9%.

Investors are now awaiting the release of data on new home sales and durable goods orders in the US. The markets will primarily focus on corporate reports and risks related to the upcoming election. Retail sales data and the previously released robust statistics on the labour market and inflation show that consumer spending is stable. This reflects the resilience of the US economy, which is still far from a recession. According to today’s EURUSD forecast, this may support the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,162 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY continues its ascent, reaching a three-month high

The USDJPY pair has reached a new three-month peak. The market does not rule out currency interventions from the Bank of Japan. Find out more in our analysis for 22 October 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair has surpassed a three-month high

  • The yen has weakened, increasing the likelihood of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan

  • USDJPY forecast for 22 October 2024: 151.25 and 153.20

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose by 150.95 on Tuesday, the highest level in the last three months.

Investors believe the odds of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan increased after the USDJPY tested the 151.00 level. However, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki did not comment on a news media question about currency fluctuations. Last week, one of the top currency diplomats, Atsushi Mimura, noted that the authorities are closely monitoring all market movements. He also added that excessive volatility was undesirable. These remarks can be interpreted differently, but the market typically views them as a signal of readiness to influence the situation.

Currency interventions occurred in early 2024 when the yen breached the 160.00 level.

This time, the JPY began to weaken in mid-September due to rising uncertainty about the trajectory of BoJ interest rate hikes.

The USDJPY forecast does not rule out further growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,163 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

PepsiCo’s revenue falls, but its stock price continues to rise. What is the secret behind the popularity of PepsiCo shares?

Despite the challenges PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) has faced, its stock price has been rising steadily. On 8 October, the company released its Q3 2024 report, posting revenue lower than the corresponding period in 2023. Nonetheless, the stock price continued its upward trajectory.

PepsiCo Inc.’s business model

PepsiCo divides its operations into three major segments, publishing information on each separately in its quarterly reports. Below are the segments in which the company operates:

  • Frito-Lay: here, PepsiCo focuses on producing and selling various snacks. The range includes products from many popular brands (Cheetos, Doritos, Lay’s, Ruffles, and Tostitos). Its leading position in the US salty snack market is supported by these high-margin products

  • Quaker Foods: this includes Quaker products, one of the pioneering brands in PepsiCo’s portfolio, which specialises in healthy eating. Quaker offers cereal bars, cereals, muesli, oatmeal, and other products. This sector focuses on breakfast and healthy eating products.

How inflation impacts PepsiCo Inc.’s revenue

Experts are increasingly suggesting online that US inflation may begin to rise again and exceed the 2022 figures. If these forecasts materialise, how could this influence the company’s revenue? It is impossible to predict reliably how exactly things will evolve. However, we can analyse past periods when the company operated amid both high and low inflation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,164 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

AUDUSD rises slightly, but pressure persists

The AUDUSD pair remains in a downward trend, pausing for corrections. Risk appetite is weak. Discover more in our analysis for 24 October 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The AUDUSD pair declines

  • The RBA is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged this year

  • AUDUSD forecast for 24 October 2024: 0.6696

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6647.

The Australian dollar reached a two-month low, as the strong US dollar and rising yields on US government bonds left it little chance of recovery. The market expects the Federal Reserve to gradually reduce interest rates. Investors also anticipate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election in November.

According to new statistical data, Australia’s private sector activity was more stable in October. Activity in the services sector continued to grow, while the manufacturing segment contracted at its sharpest pace since May 2020.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted earlier this week that the central bank is ready to respond based on incoming data. He highlighted the country’s unexpectedly strong employment growth, which came as a surprise.

The baseline AUDUSD forecast appears mixed and suggests that the interest rate in Australia will remain unchanged this year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,165 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

NZDUSD under pressure: consumer confidence in New Zealand decreases

The NZDUSD rate is declining within a descending channel, attempting to secure a position below the support level. Find out more in our analysis for 25 October 2024.

NZDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr confirmed that the low inflation target is attainable, adding to arguments for an interest rate cut in November

  • New Zealand’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 95.1 in September to 91.2 in October

  • NZDUSD forecast for 25 October 2024: 0.5984 and 0.6052

Fundamental analysis

The NZDUSD rate declined to 0.5987 on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive week of losses. The pressure on the New Zealand dollar is mounting amid rising expectations of a moderate Federal Reserve rate cut and uncertainty about the upcoming US presidential election.

Domestically, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr noted that attaining low and stable inflation has become a realistic target. This adds to arguments supporting another substantial RBNZ rate cut in November. The markets have already priced in a 50-basis-point cut and are also assessing the likelihood of a 75-basis-point reduction. As part of today’s NZDUSD forecast, these factors exert pressure on the currency pair.

The significant economic news from New Zealand includes a decrease in consumer confidence in October after three consecutive months of growth. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell to 91.2 points in October from 95.1 in September, indicating the end of the recovery period. Employment figures remain extremely weak, with 22% of respondents reporting a weaker financial position than last year and only 14% expecting improvements next year. This is significantly lower than the September indicator of 25%.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,166 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD: Strong US economy and expectations of Trump’s victory exert pressure on the euro

The EURUSD rate slightly declines, remaining within the range. More details in our analysis for 29 October 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Positive US economic indicators continue to exert pressure on the euro

  • The increasing likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election supports the US dollar

  • Traders are focused on the upcoming releases of crucial economic data, such as US GDP, CPI, and the employment report

  • EURUSD forecast for 29 October 2024: 1.0780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to correct for the fifth consecutive trading session. Buyers have so far managed to maintain the 1.0775 level. In addition to positive economic data supporting the strength of the US economy, the US dollar is bolstered by rising expectations of Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming US presidential election.

Traders now focus on preliminary US Q3 GDP data due on Wednesday and the core PCE price index for September, a crucial inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, scheduled for release on Thursday. The US nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, potentially increasing market volatility.

Overall, the US dollar remains stable as signs of steady economic growth have reduced expectations of a sharp Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Market participants now believe that after starting the easing cycle with a sizeable 50-basis-point cut in September, the regulator will limit itself to a more moderate 25-basis-point move in November. The market estimates the likelihood of such a reduction at 95%, which, as part of today’s EURUSD forecast, continues to weigh on the euro.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,167 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) hit a new all-time high today, hovering above 2,780 USD

XAUUSD prices have completed a correction and are steadily rising, surpassing the previous all-time high of 2,758 USD. A triangle pattern has formed on the instrument chart. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 October 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: market participants are awaiting the US labour market statistics this week, including the ADP report, nonfarm payrolls, and the unemployment rate

  • Current trend: a strong uptrend is underway, with a triangle pattern formed on the chart

  • XAUUSD forecast for 30 October 2024: 2,758 and 2,800

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to trade in an uptrend, reaching another all-time high around 2,790 USD today. A downward correction is complete, and growth is likely to resume. The precious metal appears buoyant, supported by robust demand from central banks and investors.

The current Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cutting cycle, high geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflict escalation in the Middle East, and the upcoming US presidential election in November are all factors strengthening the prices of Gold.

US employment statistics from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) are scheduled for release during today’s American session. If data exceeds the forecast (+115,000 jobs), the US dollar will receive support, and the XAUUSD pair may enter a local correction again. If data falls short of the forecast, this will drive further growth in the XAUUSD pair.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,168 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: BoJ left the interest rate at its highest level since 2008

The USDJPY rate has declined, securing below the 152.65 support level. Discover more in our analysis for 31 October 2024

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The Bank of Japan left the interest rate at 0.25%, the highest level since 2008

  • The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3, slightly below the forecasted 3.0%, with personal consumption and sales figures remaining high

  • Investors cautiously await Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data

  • USDJPY forecast for 31 October 2024: 152.40 and 150.80

Fundamental analysis

At its two-day meeting, which concluded on Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This result aligned with analysts’ expectations that monetary policy would remain unchanged, exerting pressure on the USDJPY rate. This year, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate twice, in March and July.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has already warned of increasing uncertainty in the global economy, noting that the regulator has time to thoroughly analyse risks without hastily tightening monetary policy. Traders are now scrutinising information from the BoJ chief’s post-meeting briefing, looking for hints about the timing and pace of further interest rate hikes.

According to the quarterly survey, the Bank of Japan maintains its inflation outlook and expects inflation to remain close to the 2.0% target level in the coming years. The projected core inflation rate, excluding food prices, remains at 2.5%.

Investors are now cautiously awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payroll data and next week’s US presidential election. Meanwhile, the ADP report recorded a surge in private-sector employment in October, indicating labour market resilience. The US economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q3 2024, slightly falling short of the forecasted 3.0%. However, solid growth in personal consumption and high sales figures confirm consumer activity, which may support the US dollar as part of today’s USDJPY forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,169 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD undergoes a correction ahead of a key US employment report

The EURUSD rate is falling after rebounding from the 1.0885 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 1 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since May, coming in at 216,000

  • Traders forecast gains of 113,000 jobs in the employment report

  • US personal income rose by 0.3% in September 2024, with spending increasing by 0.5%

  • On an annual basis, growth in US personal consumption expenditures slowed to the lowest level since February 2021

  • EURUSD forecast for 1 November 2024: 1.0922 and 1.0960

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate declines after rising for four days. Investors are focused on the upcoming US employment report, which is expected to confirm the resilience of the US economy ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the presidential election.

The US employment statistics for October close the current trading week, and traders expect 113,000 jobs to be created. However, recent natural disasters may affect the final reading, increasing the likelihood of deviation from forecasts. A muted market reaction to the report will help the EURUSD maintain its current trend as part of today’s forecast.

Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to their lowest level since May. The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits decreased by 12,000 to 216,000, while analysts predicted an increase to 230,000 on average.

Additionally, in September 2024, US personal income rose by 0.3% from August, while spending by Americans increased by 0.5%. Last month, the PCE index was up 0.2% compared to the previous month. The annual index growth rate slowed to 2.1%, marking the lowest since February 2021. This indicates potentially easing inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,170 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY rose: a crucial week begins

The USDJPY pair is undergoing a correction, with the US dollar retreating ahead of the US presidential election. Find out more in our analysis for 4 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • The USDJPY pair declines

  • Safe-haven assets are in demand this week

  • USDJPY forecast for 4 November 2024: 151.00 and 150.80

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 151.75 on Monday.

The Japanese yen has gained an opportunity to strengthen while the US dollar retreats in anticipation of this week’s US presidential election. The next five business days will be tense, with the US presidential campaign nearing its conclusion and the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting. The market will require strength and safe-haven assets.

The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points.

Last week, the Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% per annum. The central bank is pausing a series of adjustments in monetary conditions as it assesses the risks of a political imbalance in Japan. This adds to the uncertainty regarding the country’s fiscal policy. The interest rate may change in January, but several key economic indicators will be released by then.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,171 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD awaits the news, with the focus on the US presidential election

The EURUSD pair remains in a consolidation phase. A critical moment is approaching. Find out more in our analysis for 5 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The EURUSD pair is consolidating

  • Initial, accurate data on the US presidential election will emerge a few days after the vote

  • EURUSD forecast for 5 November 2024: 1.0950

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around the level of 1.0878 on Tuesday.

The stock market holds varied opinions on who will win the US presidential election. Over the weekend, Donald Trump was the favourite, and the US dollar was rising. Now, support has shifted to Kamala Harris.

The major currency pair will undoubtedly experience increased volatility this week. The only question is its direction. According to stock market consensus, the US dollar could decline by 1-2% if Harris wins, and it may rise significantly if Trump emerges victorious.

The election winner will only be known a few days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump will likely challenge any signs of defeat, as he did in 2020.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,172 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDCAD resumed growth: the market is watching the US election results

The USDCAD pair is confidently rising, with the US dollar in demand as the majority of votes favour Trump. More details in our analysis for 6 November 2024.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

  • The USDCAD pair surges

  • The market is following the first reports on the US presidential election

  • USDCAD forecast for 6 November 2024: 1.3950

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate rose to 1.3921 on Wednesday.

Although the pair declined yesterday evening, the situation changed today with the release of the first US presidential election results. The US dollar is in strong demand as presidential candidate Donald Trump gains more votes than his opponent, Kamala Harris.

Canadian statistics remain off the market’s radar. However, the private sector PMI rose to 50.7 points following a four-month decline. Oil prices also increased after OPEC+ decided to postpone its planned output increase. Although these factors support CAD’s fundamental strength, fortune favours the USD today.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,173 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

AUDUSD recouped mid-week’s losses

The AUDUSD pair is rising on Thursday, with the Aussie supported by the RBA’s stance. More details in our analysis for 7 November 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

  • The AUDUSD pair halted its rapid decline

  • A tough RBA stance helped reduce this week’s losses

  • AUDUSD forecast for 7 November 2024: 0.6688

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate recovered on Thursday, reaching 0.6620.

The Australian dollar has successfully recouped nearly all recent losses, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish outlook and market optimism over potential measures to stimulate the Chinese economy.

The AUDUSD pair fell by 1.9% yesterday due to pressure from a strong US dollar following Donald Trump’s resounding victory in the US presidential election.

The RBA left the interest rate unchanged this week and signalled that monetary policy would remain restrictive for some time, supporting the AUD position.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,174 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Gold (XAUUSD) found support around 2,643 USD

XAUUSD prices declined to 2,643 USD as part of a correction amid the US dollar’s strengthening, driven by the US election. The asset encountered strong demand at this level and is attempting to reverse upwards. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 8 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

  • Market focus: Donald Trump confidently won the US presidential election

  • Market focus: the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25%

  • Current trend: a local correction is underway as part of the uptrend

  • XAUUSD forecast for 8 November 2024: 2,643 and 2,710

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes continue to trade within a local correction, after which upward momentum is expected to resume. The decline in Gold prices was due to the growth of the US dollar, supported by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

At yesterday’s meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously decided to lower the interest rate by 0.25%, aligning with market expectations. In its accompanying statement, the US Fed noted that labour market conditions have generally improved, and inflation continues to gradually move towards the 2.0% target.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

1,175 Reply by Vlad RF

  • Registered: 2019-08-07
  • Posts: 480

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

USDJPY: the yen has a strong chance of strengthening

Stable bank lending and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions may support the yen’s strengthening against the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 11 November 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

  • Japan’s Bank Lending Rate (y/y): previously at 2.7%, currently at 2.7%

  • The Bank of Japan summary of opinions

  • Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey: previously at 49.0%, currently at 47.5

  • USDJPY forecast for 11 November 2024: 150.55

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s Bank Lending Rate shows the total funds Japanese banks provide to borrowers, including businesses and individuals. The indicator is an important gauge for understanding economic activity, as growth in lending indicates increased spending and investment. The Japanese central bank closely monitors bank lending to regulate monetary policy effectively and stimulate economic growth.

An increase in bank lending volume signals economic recovery, as rising demand for loans reflects confidence in economic prospects.

Fundamental analysis for 11 November 2024 indicates that the lending rate remained at the previous level of 2.7%, which may suggest a stabilisation in Japan’s economy and inflation.

The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions is a report released after BoJ monetary policy meetings. This document outlines the principal opinions and discussions of the Policy Board members concerning the current economic situation, inflation, and financial conditions in Japan. It provides insight into the Bank of Japan’s assessment of economic risks and potential measures it may implement to stabilise inflation and promote sustainable economic growth.

The summary of opinions is valuable to analysts and investors as it indicates potential changes in Japanese monetary policy.

Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey is a monthly indicator measuring economic sentiment and expectations among representatives from various Japanese business sectors, including retail, transport, and services.

The index is based on surveys of professionals directly involved with consumers, enabling timely observations of changes in demand and public sentiment.

The index consists of two parts: current economic conditions and expectations for the coming months. An increase in the index indicates economic improvement, while a decline signals potential economic challenges. The indicator is widely used to forecast short-term trends in the Japanese economy.

Although the forecast for 11 November 2024 suggested the index could fall to 47.2, the actual reading was 47.5. While this exceeded the forecast, it was below the previous level. Nevertheless, the actual result may be viewed positively for the Japanese yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

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