EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.03.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing notable fluctuations influenced by a mix of European economic data and US market dynamics. Today's EURUSD calendar includes significant releases like the Real Retail Sales from Germany and the French General Budget Outcome, both pivotal in shaping the Euro's trajectory. Concurrently, the speech by Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel is highly anticipated, with potential implications on the Euro's strength depending on the tone and content regarding future monetary policy. Across the Atlantic, the US market awaits the PMI data, which is a critical economic health indicator. Such data can directly impact the USD's strength against a backdrop of global economic uncertainties.

Price Action:
The EUR/USD Price Action has shown a consistent bearish trend on the H4 chart, marked by a descending channel pattern. Recent sessions have recorded a narrow oscillation between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, indicative of bearish momentum with intermittent stability. The last three candles, specifically bearish, reinforce the downtrend, hinting at potential continued bearish pressure if the upper resistance of the channel holds.

Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EUR/USD's price movement within the Bollinger Bands displays a bearish trend, as it hovers between the middle and lower bands. The narrowing of the bands slightly suggests a decrease in market volatility and a potential consolidation phase could be nearing.
Parabolic SAR: Indicative dots positioned above the candles signal continued bearish dominance, aligning with the overall downtrend observed in the price channel.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): With an RSI value at 34.28, the market is nearing oversold territory, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish momentum or a forthcoming bullish correction.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The %R indicator at -87.38 further corroborates the strong bearish momentum, as it lies close to the extreme end of its range, signaling that the market might be oversold.

Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest significant support level is observed around 1.09470, which aligns with historical lows and the lower Bollinger Band.
Resistance: Resistance can be found at approximately 1.11095, coinciding with the channel's upper boundary and the middle Bollinger Band.

Conclusion and Considerations:
The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bearish phase, indicated by both price action and key technical indicators within the H4 timeframe. Investors should remain cautious, as the upcoming economic announcements from both Europe and the United States could inject significant volatility and potentially alter the currency pair's direction. Traders are advised to watch for any breakout above the channel resistance or a bounce from support levels as key signals for short-term trading opportunities.

Disclaimer: The EUR/USD H4 analysis is provided as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Financial trading involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a professional advisor before making any investment decisions. Changes in market conditions can occur rapidly, requiring constant review and adaptation of strategies.

FXGlory
09.03.2024

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.06.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair remains sensitive to key economic releases from both the U.S. and Canada. On the U.S. side, today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data will have a major impact on the U.S. Dollar’s strength. Positive employment data can strengthen the Dollar as it signals economic growth and could lead to further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, any hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams and Christopher Waller, will be closely watched for clues on monetary policy direction. On the Canadian side, the upcoming employment and unemployment data are key drivers for the Canadian Dollar. Better-than-expected employment figures can boost the CAD, indicating stronger economic activity in Canada. These releases will likely bring increased volatility to the USD/CAD forex pair.

Price Action:
On the H4 chart, the USD CAD is currently in a bearish trend, trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Over the last few sessions, the price has been consolidating between the 1.34827 support and the 1.35562 resistance level. The pair briefly attempted to recover but has since retraced and is now hovering near the lower Bollinger Band. The bearish pressure is strong, though a potential bullish correction could be on the horizon if key support levels hold.

Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The USD-CAD price is in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bearish pressure. It is trying to move closer to the middle band, signaling a possible consolidation phase. The bands have widened recently, indicating increased volatility, which may precede a breakout in either direction.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots have recently flipped above the candles, indicating that the current trend is bearish. Traders should watch for any reversal signals that could emerge if the price moves above key levels.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.55, which is below the 50 neutral mark but far from the oversold territory. This suggests that while the bearish momentum is intact, there may still be room for further downside before the market becomes oversold.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is slightly below the zero line, showing weak bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, but any potential crossover could indicate the beginning of a bullish correction.

Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The immediate support is located at 1.34827. A break below this level could open the door for further downside, potentially targeting the next key support at 1.34000.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.35562. If the price manages to break above this level, it could trigger a bullish correction towards the next resistance at 1.36300.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a clear bearish bias, with key indicators like the Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD signaling downward momentum. However, upcoming fundamental data, especially from the U.S. labor market and Canadian employment figures, will likely play a critical role in determining the pair's next move. Traders should remain cautious and monitor support and resistance levels closely, as a break could signal a shift in momentum. Additionally, news from Federal Reserve officials may provide further insight into the USD’s potential strength.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Always stay updated on the latest market conditions, as they can change rapidly.

FXGlory
09.06.2024

GBPAUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.10.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
Upcoming economic data releases from both the UK and Australia will play a crucial role in predicting the direction of the GBP/AUD pair. Key releases for the GBP currency include Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, and the Unemployment Rate. The Claimant Count Change is expected to show an improvement from 135K to 95.5K, suggesting a slight improvement in the UK labor market. Average Earnings Index 3m/y is forecasted to dip from 4.5% to 4.1%, indicating weaker wage growth. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%, which may keep investor confidence intact but limits any significant bullish move in the GBP.
On the Australian side, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment data, along with the NAB Business Confidence report, is expected to provide insights into the current economic outlook. If both data sets show improving confidence, it could strengthen the AUD in the short term.

Price Action:
The GBP/AUD price line has entered a correction phase after a strong bullish wave. Currently, the price is consolidating above the Ichimoku cloud, which suggests that bullish sentiment may remain dominant in the near future. RSI (Relative Strength Index) is not yet in the overbought area, and the stochastic indicator shows that the bearish momentum is nearly exhausted. Traders should keep an eye on the bearish trend line within this correction phase, as a breakout above this area could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.

Key Technical Indicators:
RSI: The RSI is hovering below the overbought level, suggesting more room for upward movement before reaching overextended conditions.
Stochastic: The stochastic oscillator is showing signs of reaching the end of a bearish run, hinting at a potential bullish crossover.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the cloud, which is a bullish signal, and could indicate further upside if the price sustains above this area.

Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The nearest support is at 1.9500, just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. A break below this level could signal further bearish correction toward 1.9450.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at the descending trend line formed in the current correction phase. A breakout above 1.9600 could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance around 1.9700.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/AUD H4 chart suggests that while the pair is undergoing a corrective phase, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to the price holding above the Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks above the current descending trend line during this correction, bulls are likely to take over the market again. Traders should also pay close attention to upcoming GBP and AUD economic data releases, as these can highly influence the pair’s movement in the short term.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
09.10.2024

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.12.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The USD/CAD forex pair represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar, with both economies being heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil. Recently, the U.S. dollar has experienced some fluctuations due to upcoming U.S. economic reports, such as unemployment claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which are crucial for gauging inflation and labor market conditions. For Canada, today’s focus is on oil inventories and the performance of the Canadian economy, heavily tied to global oil prices. Any unexpected movements in oil prices can have a direct impact on the Canadian dollar. As of now, the pair is in a tight range as traders await these key economic releases, with cautious sentiment dominating the market.

Price Action:

In terms of price action, the USD CAD pair has shown an upward trend over the past few sessions but is currently consolidating. It recently retraced from the upper Bollinger Band and has now touched the middle band, which appears to act as support. The last two candles are bullish, indicating potential upward momentum. However, the presence of the Parabolic SAR dots above the price suggests caution, as this can indicate selling pressure. The price is fluctuating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, with resistance near the 23.6% level. A break above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend.

Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the upper band towards the middle band, which is acting as a dynamic support. Currently, the price is showing signs of a potential bounce as the last two candles have turned bullish, indicating that the middle Bollinger Band has provided temporary support.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR points are positioned above the candles, which signals potential downward pressure. However, since the price is still holding above key support levels, traders should watch for a reversal signal if the dots shift below the price.
MACD: The MACD indicator is currently showing weakening bullish momentum. The histogram is positive but shrinking, indicating that while the uptrend remains, momentum has slowed. A potential bearish crossover could occur if this trend continues, signaling a potential downside move.
%R (Williams %R): The %R is currently around -61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral level suggests there is still room for price action to go either way, depending on market sentiment and upcoming fundamental factors.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: Immediate support can be seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3550, followed by more substantial support near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3520.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3590. A successful breach of this level could pave the way toward the next resistance at 1.3630, which coincides with the recent swing highs.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD pair is showing mixed signals on the H4 chart. While the price action indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend after bouncing off the middle Bollinger Band, the technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and weakening MACD suggest caution. Traders should closely monitor the price’s behavior around the 23.6% Fibonacci level for a potential breakout, while also keeping an eye on upcoming economic releases for both the U.S. and Canada. With upcoming news such as U.S. unemployment claims and Canadian oil inventories, volatility can be expected, which could further influence the pair's direction.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is important to stay informed of the latest developments.

FXGlory
09.12.2024

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.16.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair is facing mixed market conditions today as the U.S. dollar is influenced by the release of the New York Manufacturing Index, which serves as a leading indicator of U.S. economic health. A higher-than-forecast reading would likely support the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) is in focus, which measures the change in asking prices for homes. Although the housing sector is less correlated to actual selling prices, it provides an early look into market conditions. With U.S. economic data expected to drive the dollar and UK housing data potentially offering limited support for the pound, traders can expect GBP/USD volatility today.

Price Action:
In the GBPUSD H4 chart, we observe an upward trend, with the price currently trading between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This signals a continuation of the upward movement after a recent pullback. The GBPUSD price action shows bullish momentum as it attempts to break higher levels, with candles forming higher lows in the last few sessions. The pair appears to be trading within a rising channel, indicating further potential upside if support levels hold.

Key Technical Indicators:
Short SMA (9): The short-term moving average has crossed above the long-term moving average (SMA 17), suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term.
Long SMA (17): The long SMA shows gradual upward movement, reinforcing the continuation of the bullish trend as the price action respects this indicator as a dynamic support.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This supports the possibility of further upward movement as buying pressure increases.
Volumes: Recent volume data shows increased buying interest, supporting the recent price surge. However, traders should watch for potential exhaustion if volume starts to decline.

Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support level is at 1.3070 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a stronger base at 1.3040, aligning with the lower boundary of the channel.
Resistance: Key resistance stands at 1.3160 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 1.3240, which marks the 100% Fibonacci extension.

Conclusion and Consideration:
GBP/USD continues to display bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators like the SMA crossover and MACD’s positive trend. With key support levels holding, the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory. However, U.S. data releases could play a crucial role in determining the dollar’s strength, which might influence this trend. Traders should monitor upcoming news for both GBP and USD to gauge potential market reactions, particularly if the U.S. data exceeds forecasts.

Disclaimer: This GBP-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s important for traders to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions. Always consider market volatility and news events before entering any trade.

FXGlory
09.16.2024

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.18.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

Upcoming economic data releases from the US and Australia are significant for understanding potential movements in the AUD/USD pair. From the US, the focus is on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to increase from 5.25% to 5.50%. Such a hike could strengthen the USD as higher interest rates usually attract foreign capital. Additionally, the FOMC Economic Projections and Statement will provide deeper insights into future monetary policy, which could sway market sentiment significantly. The TIC Long-Term Purchases, indicating foreign investments, jumped from 54.9B to an expected 96.1B, reflecting a robust interest in US financial assets.
From Australia, the Employment Change is set to show a sharp rise from 26.4K to 58.2K, suggesting strong job market conditions, which could bolster the AUD. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, supporting a stable economic outlook in Australia.

Price Action:

The AUD/USD price shows a consolidation above the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 chart, indicating a bullish sentiment in the near term. The RSI is above 50 but not yet in the overbought territory, suggesting there is room for upward movement without immediate reversal risks. The Stochastic indicator hints at the end of a bearish phase, potentially signaling an upcoming bullish crossover.

Key Technical Indicators:

RSI: Hovering above 50,ing towards potential upward movements.
Stochastic: Indicating the exhaustion of bearish momentum with a possible bullish turn ahead.
Ichimoku Cloud: The price residing above the cloud supports bullish dominance, suggesting potential further upsides.

Support and Resistance:

Support Levels: The nearest support level is found just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud at 0.6600. A drop below this level could lead to further bearish corrections towards 0.6550.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is observed at the downward trend line from the recent correction phase. A decisive breakout above 0.6750 could reaffirm the bullish trend, aiming for the next resistance at 0.6800.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD H4 chart points to a bullish continuation as long as the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud. The anticipated breakout above the current descending trend line could usher in renewed bullish momentum. Traders should closely monitor the forthcoming economic data from both the US and Australia, as these will likely drive short-term price action and confirm or adjust the current bullish outlook.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
09.18.2024

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.20.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD forex pair is influenced today by key fundamental events from both the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., the market anticipates remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker at Tulane University. Traders will be watching for any hawkish signals regarding future monetary policy, which could strengthen the USD. On the Canadian side, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference in Toronto. His commentary could provide insights into future interest rate policies, impacting the CAD. Additionally, the release of retail sales data and industrial product prices from Canada could drive market volatility depending on how the actual figures align with market forecasts.

Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, USDCAD has been trading in a range between 1.3500 and 1.3650 over the past few sessions, indicating consolidation after a bullish recovery. The price attempted to break out above 1.3650 but failed, pulling back toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The recent candles suggest indecision as the price hovers near the 1.3565 level. This area has acted as a key pivot zone over the past few sessions, reflecting the current battle between bulls and bears.

Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on the USD/CAD H4 chart have widened, signaling increased volatility. The price has moved toward the lower band after touching the upper band near 1.3650, indicating a potential downward pressure. However, the price remains within the bands, suggesting the market is not yet oversold. Traders should watch for a breakout of the bands to signal the next directional move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator shows a weakening bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram in negative territory. This bearish crossover signals a possible continuation of the downside momentum unless the MACD can reverse and move back above the signal line. However, the low distance between the lines suggests the trend could reverse if fundamentals support USD strength.
DeMarker (DeM 14): The DeMarker (DeM) indicator sits at 0.429, indicating potential oversold conditions. This suggests that there might be some buying interest soon if the indicator starts to rise. However, for now, the DeM signals that the downside pressure could continue in the near term unless a reversal occurs.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support for USDCAD is at 1.3565, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the recent price pivot. If the pair breaks below this, the next key support is at 1.3500, a psychological level that has historically acted as a strong barrier.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is found at 1.3640, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and marks the upper boundary of recent price action. A breakout above this level could push the pair toward 1.3695, the 50% retracement level, where further resistance may be encountered.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD pair is currently in a consolidation phase after failing to break above the 1.3640 resistance level. With technical indicators pointing toward slight bearish momentum and upcoming key fundamental events, the pair could face heightened volatility. Traders should closely monitor the speeches from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada governors, as these could provide clues on future interest rate decisions and drive price action. A break above 1.3640 would confirm a bullish breakout, while a move below 1.3560 could see the pair targeting 1.3500.

Disclaimer: The USD CAD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in the foreign exchange market involves significant risk, and it is essential for traders to conduct their research and stay updated with market conditions before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
09.20.2024

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.24.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD pair is currently influenced by critical economic events. Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, which was anticipated by the market, accompanied by the RBA Rate Statement and subsequent Press Conference. These factors are crucial in shaping the Australian dollar's direction against United States’ Dollar. The RBA’s stance was seen as relatively neutral, keeping future rate hikes uncertain. Meanwhile, on the USD side, significant events like the upcoming FOMC member Bowman’s speech and data releases, such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (5.9%, below the expected 6.5%) and the CB Consumer Confidence report, are likely to weigh on the US dollar’s performance. With the U.S. data releases showing mixed results, traders are closely monitoring the market for any clues on future Fed policy moves.

Price Action:
The AUD/USD H4 chart today shows a correction following a bullish rally. The price has now moved lower, testing a key support zone, indicating a consolidation phase. The Bollinger Bands show a sharp decline in volatility, with the price touching the lower band, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the pair remains under pressure as both fundamental and technical factors point to a cautious sentiment. If AUD/USD breaks below current support, further downside may be expected, while holding above could see the pair attempt a recovery.

Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is currently hugging the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a possible oversold condition in the short term. A contraction in the bands suggests lower volatility, signaling that a breakout might be imminent.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bearish territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is also below zero, supporting the bearish outlook. This indicates a potential for further downside if momentum doesn't shift soon.
DeM (DeMarker Indicator): The DeMarker indicator is currently reading at 0.334, signaling that the pair may be in an oversold condition, which could indicate a short-term bullish reversal if buyers step in at current levels.

Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support is at 1.35000, aligning with a key psychological level. A stronger support level is noted at 1.34610, which coincides with a previous low from earlier sessions.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.35700, which aligns with the middle of the Bollinger Bands and prior consolidation. The next significant resistance is around 1.36050, which marks the upper boundary of the recent price action.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook as the pair consolidates within the lower Bollinger Band range, signaling potential short-term downside pressure. However, oversold conditions on both the DeM and Bollinger Bands suggest a possible rebound if key support holds. Traders should monitor the MACD for confirmation of continued bearish momentum or potential reversal on AUDUSD price chart. Additionally, economic events like the RBA Press Conference and upcoming U.S. data releases could add volatility to the pair. In this uncertain market environment, prudent risk management is advised, with close attention paid to the 1.35000 support and 1.35700 resistance levels for any breakout signals.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
09.24.2024

USDCAD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.27.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today’s key events impacting this pair include the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could hint at future monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates and the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor force. In addition, traders are waiting for important US inflation data and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ upcoming reports on trade and income. On the Canadian side, attention will be on GDP figures, which offer insights into the country's economic performance. These events could drive significant volatility for USDCAD in the coming sessions.

Price Action:
On the H4 chart, USDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal after a strong bearish move. The price is currently in an upward channel following a drop, indicating a recovery phase. The pair recently found support around 1.3430 and has started to retrace upwards, moving closer to the 1.3470 resistance level. There are multiple signs suggesting a possible breakout if the bullish momentum continues, but traders should be cautious as the pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling potential further consolidation before a stronger move.

Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a bearish long-term sentiment. However, the upward trend from recent lows indicates potential bullish recovery, though it remains weak until the price breaks above the cloud.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is slightly below the signal line, and the histogram shows weak bearish momentum. Although there is some upward movement, a clearer bullish signal would emerge only if the MACD line crosses above the signal line, indicating stronger buying pressure.
DeMarker (DeM 14): The DeMarker indicator stands at 0.587, suggesting that the market is approaching an overbought condition. While not fully signaling exhaustion, traders should watch for any overbought conditions that might lead to a temporary pullback.
Williams %R (14): The Williams %R is at -14.71, nearing overbought territory. This suggests that the current upward momentum may face resistance soon, and a retracement could be imminent if the pair fails to break above key resistance levels.

Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support is at 1.3430, a level where the price recently found a bounce.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at 1.3480, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The next key resistance is at 1.3525, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD H4 chart is showing signs of a possible bullish recovery following a recent drop. However, the pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting the longer-term trend is still bearish until confirmed otherwise. The MACD and Williams %R indicators show cautious optimism, but traders should be wary of overbought conditions, especially as the price nears key Fibonacci resistance levels. With upcoming fundamental news from both the US and Canada, volatility is expected. As always, traders should stay informed of breaking news and economic data to avoid unexpected market movements.

Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions may change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
09.27.2024

EURCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.01.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/CAD pair is currently influenced by various economic developments. The Canadian Dollar's movement is heavily tied to oil prices, and recent volatility in the oil market has caused fluctuations in the CAD. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to hold interest rates has also kept the CAD under pressure. Meanwhile, Eurozone data continues to show mixed results, with weaker industrial production in Germany. However, inflationary pressures persist in the Eurozone, adding complexity to the European Central Bank's (ECB) future policy moves. Both these factors are shaping the EUR/CAD's performance this week, with upcoming economic data releases and oil price movements playing a critical role.

Price Action:
The EUR/CAD H4 chart indicates that the pair is trading in a consolidation phase after a recent bullish push. The price action shows a pullback from the 1.5170 resistance level and is currently hovering around the 1.5060 level. The pair is testing the lower boundary of a consolidation range, with key support at 1.4900. Bollinger Bands show decreased volatility, suggesting the potential for a breakout in the near term. Traders should watch for a decisive break either above the resistance at 1.5170 or below the 1.4900 support to determine the next move.

Key Technical Indicators:
William %R: The Williams %R on the EUR/CAD chart is near -56, indicating a neutral state with no strong overbought or oversold signals. A further drop below -80 could indicate oversold conditions, signaling potential buying opportunities.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bearish territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is also below zero, supporting the bearish outlook. This indicates a potential for further downside if momentum doesn't shift soon.
DeM (DeMarker Indicator): The DeMarker indicator is near 0.45, indicating that the pair is not in an oversold condition but may face continued selling pressure if it breaches key support levels.

Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support is found at 1.4900, a psychological level that has acted as a strong base in previous sessions. Below this, 1.4850 could provide further support.
Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.5170, a critical level that the pair has struggled to break. If EUR/CAD manages to close above this level, it could test the next resistance at 1.5270, marking the upper boundary of recent price action.

Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/CAD analysis suggests a cautious approach as the pair continues to consolidate near key support. Fundamental factors such as Canadian oil price movements and Eurozone inflation will play a significant role in shaping the direction of the pair. While technical indicators like the MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest the possibility of a breakout, traders should wait for confirmation before entering new positions. Prudent risk management is advised, with close attention to the 1.4900 support and 1.5170 resistance levels for potential breakout signals.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
10.01.2024

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.03.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The NZD/USD forex pair, also known as “Kiwi,” is often influenced by commodity prices and global risk sentiment, and continues to be impacted by macroeconomic data from both New Zealand and the U.S. Today, traders are watching upcoming U.S. reports, including jobless claims and the job cut announcements, which will provide insight into the U.S. labor market's health. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. dollar, as it reflects an improving economy and increases the likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the New Zealand side, global commodity prices, particularly those of agricultural goods and dairy products, remain a key driver for the NZD. With the latest ANZ Commodity Price Index on the horizon, any significant changes in global prices could have a direct impact on the Kiwi’s forecast today.

Price Action:

The NZD/USD H4 chart shows a clear downtrend, with the pair moving within a descending channel. The pair’s price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment. The pair recently broke below a key support level of 0.6296, which has now turned into resistance. Current NZDUSD price action suggests that bearish momentum may continue unless a clear reversal signal appears.

Key Technical Indicators:

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently at 35.99, which indicates that the pair is approaching oversold conditions. However, there is still room for further downside before the RSI reaches extreme levels, suggesting that the pair’s bearish momentum could persist in the short term.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator is at 16.69, deep in the oversold zone. This suggests that while the pair remains under selling pressure, a potential bullish reversal could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram showing increased downward pressure. The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.

Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:
The nearest support level is at 0.6230, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. If this level breaks, further downside toward 0.6175 could be expected.
Resistance Levels:
The immediate resistance is now at 0.6296. A break above this level would indicate a shift in sentiment and could signal the start of a bullish correction.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The NZD/USD technical analysis today shows the pair remains in a strong downtrend on the H4 timeframe, with key technical indicators pointing to its continued bearish pressure. The RSI and Stochastic oscillator both suggest the pair is nearing oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term reversal. However, as long as the price remains below the resistance level of 0.6296, the bearish momentum is likely to continue. Traders should watch for upcoming U.S. data releases, as stronger-than-expected numbers could further strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting additional pressure on the Kiwi. Risk management is crucial in this volatile environment, and traders should consider setting stop losses near key support and resistance levels.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
10.03.2024

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.07.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis:

The AUD/USD forex trading pair, also known as the “Aussie”, continues to experience significant movements, as the pair’s fundamental forecast is influenced by various factors impacting both the Australian and US economies. Recently, US Federal Reserve officials, including Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari, have provided hawkish views regarding the US economy and future interest rate hikes. These statements are strengthening the USD, putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Moreover, a US Consumer Credit report is anticipated, which may further support the USD if consumer debt levels exceed expectations. In Australia, markets are adjusting to the observance of Labor Day in some states, contributing to lower liquidity and increased volatility. On the economic front, Melbourne Institute data on consumer price inflation is also relevant, as it could signal future adjustments in Australian monetary policy, especially given the RBA’s focus on inflation control.

Price Action:

the AUD/USD H4 candle chart, shows the pair is trending downward within a well-defined bearish channel, having failed to break the upper resistance around 0.6840. The pair is currently trading near 0.6794, approaching a significant support level of 0.6770. The Aussi’s price action shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming its bearish market sentiment. Buyers are attempting to regain control, but the prevailing market momentum suggests that the downtrend is still dominant.

Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands:
The price is currently close to the lower Bollinger Band, which may act as a short-term dynamic support. The bands are widening, indicating increasing volatility in the market. A breakdown below the lower band could signify continued AUDUSD bearish pressure, while a bounce might suggest a temporary reversal or consolidation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, with the histogram showing a growing negative divergence. This suggests that the bearish momentum is still intact, and further downside is likely unless there is a strong reversal in the coming sessions.

Support and Resistance:

Support Levels:
The immediate support is at 0.6770, which aligns with recent price action and the lower Bollinger Band. If this level breaks, the next major support could be found around 0.6700, a key psychological level.
Resistance Levels:
The closest resistance is at 0.6840, near the middle Bollinger Band. A successful breach above this level would suggest a potential recovery, but strong resistance is expected at the 0.6885 level.

Conclusion and Consideration:

The AUD/USD technical analysis today shows the ongoing bearish trend, supported by strong downward momentum in both the pair’s price action and its technical indicators. The widening Bollinger Bands and bearish MACD signal suggest that the pair may face further downward pressure, especially if the 0.6770 support level is breached. However, traders should be cautious of any potential rebounds from the lower Bollinger Band or support levels, which may trigger short-term corrections. The upcoming US economic data and Australian inflation reports could further influence the AUDUSD market direction. Given the current market conditions, employing risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, is crucial in navigating this volatile environment.

Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.

FXGlory
10.07.2024