Date: 2nd May 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings.
*Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance.
*The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets.
*Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message.
*Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency.
*Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex has corrected to 105.58, but USDJPY is already inching higher again, after a sharp drop to a low of 153.04 on Tuesday that sparked fresh intervention speculation. The pair is currently trading at 155.38.
*Treasury yields plunged and were down over double digits before profit taking set in.
USOIL finished with a -3.6% loss to $79.00, the lowest since March 12. Currently it is as $79.53.
*Gold was up 1.4% to $2319.55 per ounce, reclaiming the $2300 level.

Market Trends:

*Wall Street climbed initially with gains of 1.4% on the NASDAQ, 1.2% on the Dow, and 0.96% on the S&P500. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed with losses of -0.3%, while the Dow was 0.23% firmer.
*The Hang Seng rallied more than 2%, and the ASX also posting slight gains, while CSI 300 and Nikkei declined.
*Apple’s earnings report is due after the US market closes today, will give investors a better sense of how the iPhone maker is weathering a sales slump, due in part to a sluggish China market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight

Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings.
* Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance.
* The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets.
* Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message.
* Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency.
* Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has corrected to 105.58, but USDJPY is already inching higher again, after a sharp drop to a low of 153.04 on Tuesday that sparked fresh intervention speculation. The pair is currently trading at 155.38.
* Treasury yields plunged and were down over double digits before profit taking set in.
* USOIL finished with a -3.6% loss to $79.00, the lowest since March 12. Currently it is as $79.53.
* Gold was up 1.4% to $2319.55 per ounce, reclaiming the $2300 level.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street climbed initially with gains of 1.4% on the NASDAQ, 1.2% on the Dow, and 0.96% on the S&P500. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed with losses of -0.3%, while the Dow was 0.23% firmer.
* The Hang Seng rallied more than 2%, and the ASX also posting slight gains, while CSI 300 and Nikkei declined.
* Apple’s earnings report is due after the US market closes today, will give investors a better sense of how the iPhone maker is weathering a sales slump, due in part to a sluggish China market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th May 2024.

The BoE To Cut Rates In September. US Employment Data Falters!

Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

* The UK economy experiences its strongest growth since August 2023, with Monthly GDP increasing 0.4%, four times higher than expectations.
* The Bank of England saw 2 out of 9 members vote for an interest rate cut. The dovish members of the BoE are Dr Swati and Sir Ramsden.
* The BOE Governor, Mr Bailey, said two rate cuts are likely in 2024 as “one cut will keep us in restrictive territory”. However, he advises there is a higher chance the first cut will come in September.
* The UK’s FTSE100 declines close to 0.20% as the UK’s GDP reading indicates an interest cut is less likely to take place in June 2024.

GBPUSD – The UK Economy Moves Out of a Technical Recession!

The GBPUSD over the past 24-hours has been influenced by three factors: the monetary committee’s votes, the Governor’s guidance and the UK’s latest GDP figure. The GBPUSD first fell to a 2-week low due to the higher number of votes for an interest rate cute. However, the GBPUSD has since risen 0.77%. Therefore, how can traders view the price movement and the latest developments?

A large factor influencing the pricing is whether the regulator is likely to adjust its policy in June or September. A rate cut in September would support the GBP as it would keep rates higher for longer compared to the Eurozone and other competitors. The Monetary Policy Committee votes indicates the BoE is almost ready to cut rates. The Governor also said they wish to steadily move away from a restrictive policy. In the UK a restrictive monetary policy is 5.00% and above.

The reason for the price increase is the Governor indicating that there is a higher possibility the regulator will cut in September not June. In addition to this, the strong economic growth confirmed this morning further lowers the possibility of a cut in June. This is because there is less pressure on the BoE to support a stagnated economy. Therefore, a rate cut is now likely to take place in September 2024, which is on par with the Federal Reserve’s guidance for its own policy.

The Federal Reserve and The US Dollar

The US Dollar on Thursday evening was considerably pressured by the Weekly Unemployment Claims, which normally has a limited affect. The US Unemployment Claims rose to 231,000, higher than predictions of 212,000 and the highest since November 2023. Therefore, the US has seen lower NFP data, higher unemployment rate and now higher unemployment claims. This has investors questioning if the US employment sector may be weakening for the first time since raising interest rates. If so, the Federal Reserve may consider a cut in July. Currently, the CM Exchange’s tool shows a 30.8% chance of a cut in July, if this figure rises, the US Dollar could potentially weaken.

GBPUSD – Technical Analysis

Technical analysis indicates the price of the GBPUSD may rise to the previous resistance levels between 1.25650 and 1.25936. However, if the market continues to price a Fed rate cut in September, it is improbable the exchange rate will reach the resistance level at 1.26340. The exchange rate currently trades above most trend lines such as the 75-Bar EMA and is above the 60.00 mark on most RSI periods. The price has slightly retraced since rising after the GDP announcement. For this reason, the buy signal has turned into a neutral. However, if the price rises above 1.25362, the buy signal may materialize again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th May 2024.

Market News – May 14.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*Asian stocks and European futures kept to small ranges as focus turned to upcoming US inflation reports.
*JGB yields surged to their highest levels in over a decade amid growing speculation that the BOJ might raise interest rates soon.
*Former central bank executive Momma stated that the BOJ might opt to deduct its planned bond purchases next month in an effort to revive a bond market that has been largely impaired by its ongoing substantial purchases.
*BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the importance of the market determining long-term yields independently rather than relying solely on the central bank’s actions.
*UK wage growth remained solid amid a slowdown in the job market, providing further arguments for the BOE’s monetary policy hawks to await more concrete signs of easing inflationary pressures before considering interest rate cuts.
*Eyes today are on producer price data in the US, followed by consumer price data the next day, which will provide insights into whether the Fed will consider interest rate cuts later in the year or postpone them until 2025.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex is steady at 105 lows.
*The Yen extended losses for an 8th day against the Greenback to a 2-week low. Currently USDJPY is at 156.45.
*EURUSD rebounded slightly to 1.0785, however overall holds within a downwards channel with key resistance at 1.0850.
*USOIL held steady ahead of the release of an OPEC market outlook, with traders eagerly awaiting signals regarding the extension of supply curbs. Despite a decline since April, oil prices have remained relatively high this year due to ongoing supply restrictions by OPEC and its allies, with expectations that these curbs will be prolonged into the second half of the year. Currently USOIL is at $77.78.
*Gold (-0.93%) declined further to $2338 per ounce. Copper rose at +2.46% and Platinum +0.54%.

Market Trends:

*The 10-year JGB yield to a 6-month high of 0.965%. The 2-year JGB yield, which closely reflects policy expectations, rose to 0.340%, its highest since June 2009. The 20-year and 30-year JGB yields also surged to their highest levels in 11 years and since July 2011, respectively.
*FTSE100 stands by record highs, the S&P500 is close to topping March’s record high. The Nasdaq rose by 0.3%, with four of the Magnificent Seven stocks rising. The Hang Seng has added 20% in a rally that is entering a fourth week.
*Alibaba and Tencent report earnings later today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th May 2024.

Market News – Stagflationary Risk for Japan; Bonds & Stocks Higher.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*Stocks and bonds gave a big sigh of relief after CPI and retail sales came in below expectations, supporting beliefs the FOMC will be able to cut rates by September.
*The markets had positioned for upside surprises. Wall Street surged with all three major indexes climbing to fresh record highs.
*Technical buying in Treasuries was also supportive after key rate levels were breached, sending yields to the lows since early April.
*Fed policy outlook: there is increasing optimism for a September rate cut, according to Fed funds futures, BUT most officials say they want several months of data to be confident in their actions. Plus, while price pressures are receding, rates are still well above the 2% target, keeping policy on hold. But the market is now showing about 22 bps in cuts by the end of Q3, with some 48 bps priced in for the end of 2024.
*Stagflationary Risk for Japan: GDP contracted much sharper than anticipated, for a 3rd quarter in a row. This is mainly due to consumer spending. The GDP deflator though came in higher than expected but still down from the previous quarter. The sharper than anticipated contraction in activity will complicate the outlook for the BoJ, and dent rate hike bets.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex slumped to 103.95, the first time below the 104 level since April 9.
*Yen benefitted significantly, with USDJPY currently at 154.35 as easing US inflation boosted bets on the Fed easing monetary policy this year, weakening USD, boosting the Yen.
*Gold benefited from a weaker Dollar and a rally in bonds and the precious metal is trading at $2389 per ounce. At the same time, the precarious geopolitical situation in the Middle East is underpinning haven demand.
*Oil prices rebounded slightly after the shinking of US stockpiles and the risk-on mood due to declined US Inflation. However USOil is still at the lowest level in 2 months, at 78.57.

Market Trends:

*The NASDAQ popped 1.4% to 16,742. The S&P500 advanced 1.17% to 5308, marking a new handle. And the Dow rose 0.88% to 39,908.
*Treasury yields tumbled sharply too on the increasingly dovish Fed outlook. Additionally, the break of key technical levels extended the gains to the lowest levels since early April before the shocking CPI data on April 10 boosted rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th May 2024.

Gold Reaches a New All-Time High: What’s Driving the Surge in Prices?

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*Gold renews its all-time highs after surging 1.64% on Friday and a further 1.24% during this morning’s Asian session.
*The price of Gold has risen due to 3 factors; Iran’s helicopter crash killing at least 2 politicians, a potential rate cut and a weaker US Dollar.
*Commodities all continue to increase with Copper leading after rising a further 3.45% intraday.
*Investors are refocusing on the NASDAQ in anticipation of NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings report, which will be made public mid-week.

XAUUSD – Weaker Dollar and Chinese Demand!

Gold’s price has been increasing for the past 2 weeks but saw significant gains mainly on Friday and early this morning. Another factor investors should note is that the demand is not solely coming from the US trading session but rather all 3 trading sessions (Asian, European & US). Why is Gold again renewing its highs?

The first factor that investors need to take note of is that the price of all commodities have been rising over the past 2-weeks. Here we can see that commodities in general are seeing demand and lower supply, not solely Gold. The second factor is that China is still noticeably increasing their reserve in Gold as the country looks to enhance its currency. Additionally, the country is looking to de-Dollarize ahead of the US elections. China has considerably increased their orders for the commodity and investors should note that the Renminbi has become the fifth most traded currency in the world.

According to economists, the higher price has a lot to do with the increase in orders from certain countries. In addition to this, some investors continue to predict a rate adjustment from the Federal Reserve after a slight decline in inflation from 3.5% to 3.4%. However, traders should be cautious that the Fed’s representatives are not changing their rhetoric. Loretta Mester said that achieving their target of 2% will take longer than expected, but maintaining current interest rates will help reduce price pressure. The official added that the US Fed needed more evidence of an inflation reduction to begin easing monetary policy. Below are the dates some of the main global banks expect the Federal Reserve to start easing:

July 2024 – JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs

September 2024 – Morgan Stanley & UBS Group

December 2024 – Bank of America and Deutsche Bank AG.

Technical analysis continues to point towards an upward price movement including the VWAP, Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands, though the price is understandably overbought on most oscillators including the RSI. However, based on the previous two impulse waves on the daily chart, the price potentially can increase a further 2-3% before losing momentum if it is going to follow previous patterns.

USA100 –  Investors Focus On NVIDIA Earnings Report

The USA100 was the worst performing index on Thursday and Friday. However, the index will again be under the spotlight as NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report will be released Wednesday evening. Economists have said one of the main reasons behind the loss of momentum towards the end of the week was the “higher weight” stocks underperforming. Of the “magnificent seven” stocks, only three have outperformed the NASDAQ over the past month. These include NVIDIA, Alphabet and Amazon.

On the positive side, the price this morning is increasing as are other global indices, indicating a “risk-on” appetite.  Furthermore, an influential factor will be NVIDIA’s earnings and revenue data. Analysts expect the company’s Earnings Per Share to rise 7% and revenue to increase to $24.55 billion, a new record high. If the report is higher than expectations, the price of the stock is likely to rise and support the NASDAQ accordingly.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd May 2024.

UK Inflation Drop Boosts GBP, But Analysts See Correction Signals.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The NASDAQ forms its 5th bullish wave resulting in the index trading 8% higher this month alone. Investors are waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings report.
*The market awaits the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes for further indications on the potential rate adjustments.
*The US Dollar Index declines to a 7-week low, but can tonight’s Meeting Minutes change the trend? Read below what economists are predicting.
*UK inflation declines from 3.2% to 2.3% in its largest drop since December 2023. The Pound increases as the inflation rate did not decline to 2.1% as previously

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Drops But Does Not Meet Previous Expectations!

The GBPUSD is trading 0.30% higher after the release of April’s UK inflation figures. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are the worst performing currencies of the day. Traders looking to speculate a rising Pound may benefit from these weakening currencies. The GBPJPY is trading 0.47% higher so far. However, investors should be cautious of any change in price action as the next session (European Market) opens.

The UK’s inflation figure fell from 3.2% to 2.3% which is the largest drop in 2024 so far and brings the Bank of England closer to its target. This would normally pressure the currency, but there are some factors which have triggered a bullish Pound. This includes the Core Consumer Price Index which fell from 4.2% to 3.9% instead of falling to 3.6% which were the previous expectations. Also, certain sectors did not see a decline in inflation in April, which is a continued concern. For these reasons, investors have increased their exposure to the Pound, supporting the currency. Also, economists are advising that the weakening inflation rate can increase investment demand which also further supports the country’s economy and subsequently the currency.

Furthermore, investors will also need to take into consideration the price condition of the US Dollar individually. Dollar traders will be focusing on tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Meeting Minutes. The market will particularly be looking for clarity on how many adjustments are likely in 2024, if any at all. In addition to this, if an adjustment is likely in July, September or later in the year. If the report indicates less cuts and a delay, the US Dollar potentially can witness further demand and a change in trend. This is something which was particularly seen in April 2024.

The price action of the GBPUSD is forming a bullish trend and most trend-based indicators are signalling a higher price. However, there are signs that the price may correct back to the previous range. For example, on the 4-Hour chart the price is witnessing a divergence signal. in addition to this, the price is also trading at a significant resistance level from November, December and January. Though, for the resistance level to become active, the Dollar will likely require support from the upcoming Meeting Minutes. In the short term, sell signals are likely to materialize after crossing 1.27400 and 1.27268.

USA100 – Bullish Trend, But Investor Focus On Meeting Minutes & NVIDIA Earnings

The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price as the US Open was approaching, however, the price momentum quickly changed when US investors started trading. The index rose 0.30% by the end of day and was the best performing US index. During the US Session 62.5% of stocks holding a weight of more than 1.00% rose while 37.5% fell. The main price drivers which supported the upward price movement were Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, NVIDIA and Netflix.

Investors will closely be monitoring the upcoming earnings report for NVIDIA, but also the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. A more restrictive monetary policy can pressure the stock market, but the level of pressure and downward price movement will also depend on the results of NVIDIA’s earnings. Additionally, shareholders will also focus on Intuit’s Quarterly Earnings Report tomorrow evening, but this will have a lesser effect compared to NVIDIA.

A concern for intraday traders is the decline in indices around the world in markets which are currently open. For example, the DAX, FTSE100, CAC and Nikkei225 are all trading lower. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond Yields are trading 0.0027% higher which is additional pressure on equities. Nonetheless, technical analysis in the medium to longer term continue to point to a continued upward trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th May 2024.

Market News – Erosion in Fed rate cut odds; Stocks, Oil & Gold under pressure

Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Nvidia bigger than entire stock market – Market cap now greater than Australia,  South Korea and Russia.

* After the massive Nvidia beat, rallying over 9% on the day, failed to reinvigorate the rally at the close. It was unable to support the major indexes.
* Wall street: The profit takers ruined the party, taking advantage of recent record highs to take some chips off the table. Erosion in Fed rate cut expectations provided extra incentive to sell.
* Strong US economic activity: Strong PMI, tight jobless claims, slump in Home sales and high home prices pushed Fed rate cut expectations further back. US jobs data released showed initial applications for unemployment were slightly lower than expected, indicating the economy was holding up despite high rates. The data, Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes, have cast doubt over whether officials will have enough evidence of the disinflation trend to begin cutting rates by September.
* It is an early close in bonds today and that could accelerate activity as traders position ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend.

Asian & European Open:

* Asian equities dropped today, following Wall Street lower.
* Chinese officials announced an Rmb300bn ($42bn) lending package to help buy back real estate from the nation’s indebted property developers.
* Japan: Inflation slowed for the 2nd straight month in April, making it difficult for BOJ to proceed with further tightening. Inflation could pick up due to weaker Yen and rising Oil.
* BOE UK consumer confidence recovered while retail sales slumped. For the BoE that means there is less risk of a wage-price spiral as companies will increasingly struggle to pass on higher labor costs. More arguments in favor of an early rate cut then, despite recent data showing that headline inflation is not coming down as fast as hoped.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex found its footing, extending against G10 for a 5th day.
* Pound dropped after the UK Retail Sales, with GBPUSD at 1.2670.
* Oil declined after hitting its 3-month low as the market flashed signs of weakness ahead of the US summer driving season. Elsewhere, Gold remains weak at $2337, for a 3rd day.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The Dow lost -1.5% to 39,065 with Boeing down over -7%. Live Nation dove as the DoJ filed suit to divest Ticketmaster. The S&P500 slumped -0.74% to 5267. And the NASDAQ declined -0.39%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th May 2024.

Market News – Stocks Mixed, USD Down ahead of crucial inflation data later this week.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*ECB officials continue to flag a June cut, but even ECB chief economist Lane, hardly one of the hawks, stressed that policy settings will likely have to remain restrictive for the rest of the year. ECB’s Schnabel wants to reserve QE for moments of crisis. Villeroy says ECB shouldn’t rule out July cut.
*Lagarde will have to perform a difficult balancing act next week, to convince markets that all options remain open for the second half of the year.
*FT reported: Chinese property developers saw their shares rally in recent weeks after Beijing announced a real estate support package, but have subsequently sold off amid concerns the measures will not be enough to help the stricken sector.
*Japan’s service prices rose 2.8% year-on-year, the fastest increase in over 30 years, indicating a broadening inflation trend. This jump, surpassing economists’ 2.3% forecast, supports the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The BOJ sees service prices as crucial for gauging inflation spread. This data may prompt the BOJ to consider an earlier rate hike, with some forecasts suggesting a possible move by July.

Asian & European Open:

*Chinese equities declined with real estate companies dragging down the country’s benchmark index.
*European & US futures arehigher as the Dollar slipped before a swath of inflation prints that’s expected to influence the direction of global monetary policy.
*All eyes this week are on fresh inflation data from Australia to Japan, the euro region and the US. The ECB is set to release its April CPI expectations later in the day.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex slipped for a 2nd day, retesting 6-month trendline. Currently set at 104.35.
*Gold prices remained steady as the Dollar eased, with investors eyeing key US inflation data for hints on potential Fed rate cuts. Spot gold held at $2,342 per ounce.
*Oil prices steadied after 2 days of gains, i.e. at $78.70, despite rising Middle East tensions following the death of an Egyptian soldier in a clash with Israeli troops. Overall, prices have dipped since early April due to weakening demand from Asia, leading Brent’s prompt spread close to a contango structure, signaling increasing supply relative to consumption.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th May 2024.

Market News – Yields jump; Stocks under pressure.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The FOMC’s high-for-longer stance, along with some increasing fears of a rate hike, continue to weigh on Treasuries. That’s taking a toll on Wall Street too with profit taking from recent record highs knocking stocks down further.
*There was weakness in EGBs after stronger German inflation and wage data.
*US Yields have risen since the market breathed a sigh of relief after cooler CPI and retail sales, and are back near the highs since November.
*Global equities are headed for their worst week since mid-April.
*In New Zealand, the new government delivered on its election promise to cut taxes in its first budget even as the Treasury forecast bigger deficits and a delayed return to surplus.

Asian & European Open:

*Wall Street dropped, led by the Dow’s -1.06% decline. The S&P500 declined -0.74%, with the NASDAQ -0.58% lower. Several earnings reports have been less than stellar as well. Salesforce disappointed today, while HP beat. Meanwhile, retailers are coming into the spotlight and there are fears of weakness.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex has been benefiting from the hawkish outlooks. It has bounced back over 105.
*The USDJPY fell, with the Yen advancing after weakening to beyond 157.50 on Wednesday, falling through a level that had prompted the latest round of suspected action.
*The Rand extended losses as South Africa’s election vote count gathers pace.
*Gold and Oil steadied. USOIL is well below the week’s high however it has been ranging since  yesterday afternoon as traders look to US stockpile data later today and an OPEC+ meeting at the weekend for more clarity on the supply and demand outlook.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th June 2024.

The Euro Declines As The ECB’s Rate Decision Approaches!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The EURUSD retreats from recent highs and gains strong indications from momentum indicators. The Euro also declines against the Japanese Yen.
Stocks decline in Tuesday’s pre-trading session, but will lower oil prices soon prompt a new surge of buyers?
*The US economy shows signs of slowing, but analysts advise no recession while employment remains strong.
*Chip-makers save the NASDAQ from witnessing a strong decline on Monday. NVIDIA rises 4.90% and Micron Technology 2.54%.

USA100 – NVIDIA Saves the NASDAQ From Another Decline!

The NASDAQ saw prices increasing throughout the day but fell within the first 4 hours of the US session. However, like Friday, investors re-entered the market at the lower price in the second half of the session. As a result, the NASDAQ ended the day 0.47% higher, but this was largely due to good performance from NVIDIA stocks which rose more than 4.90%. According to Wall Street, without NVIDIA, the NASDAQ would most likely have ended lower. NVIDIA is currently the fourth most influential company amongst the NASDAQ’s components.

The latest news which is holding investor attention is the latest Purchasing Managers Index, which is one of the few leading indicators. Other economic data are known as laggings as they are based on past data rather than sentiment and future outlook. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Prices both read lower than expectations and lower than the previous month. However, investors should not necessarily “overreact” as analysts advise this would not mean anything unless employment also contracts. Additionally, the Final Manufacturing PMI read 51.3 which still indicates economic expansion, and the lower oil prices can support stocks in the longer term.

A slight decline is not necessarily negative for the stock market as long as there is not a higher risk of a recession. The lower consumer demand and economic activity could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider more than 1 rate cut in 2024. 53.0% of large traders are betting on this, up from 49.0% before the publication of the statistics. Additionally, most experts predict that the regulators will cut the interest rate twice over the course of the year, totalling 0.50%.

Nonetheless, technical analysis indicates there is still the possibility of the price declining. The price was unable to remain above the main sentiment lines and did not form a higher high. At the moment, the RSI is currently priced at 50.30 which indicates the price may witness a reverting price condition.

If the price rises to a new high breaking above $18,638.50, the momentum could indicate upward price movement again. Otherwise, bearish crossovers on the 5-minute chart will continue to indicate valid downward momentum. Currently, European stocks are declining and if they keep falling, investors can use this as an indication of a risk-off sentiment.

EURUSD – The Euro Gives Up Gains As The ECB’s Rate Decision Approaches

The price of the EURUSD continues to form higher highs and higher lows but is currently trading within a downward price movement. If the price declines below 1.08576, the bullish trend pattern will be broken. Investors are currently contemplating the timing of the European Central Bank’s first interest rate cut.

The EU Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.7 points to 47.3 points, and the German PMI from 42.5 points to 45.4 points, justifying preliminary estimates. Experts believe that the European economy is gradually recovering but sustainable growth has not yet been achieved. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will make a decision on its policy: according to forecasts, regulator officials will reduce the interest rate from 4.50% to 4.25%, the deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, and the marginal rate from 4.75% to 4.50%.

The EURUSD is seeing indications of upward price movement on the 2-hour timeframe, but so far is declining against most currencies. In addition to this, the price is witnessing strong bearish momentum and bearish indication on the 5-minute chart. Therefore, the current signals point towards a short-term bias. However, if the momentum continues investors may revisit this outlook and consider a full correction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th June 2024.

Ideal Economic Conditions Push The NASDAQ To New Highs!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*Economists expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this afternoon. However, investors will be keen to hear how many cuts are likely in 2024 after strong wage growth.
*The NASDAQ climbs to a new all-time high while economic data indicates an earlier rate adjustment but not a recession.
*The NASDAQ rises more than 2.00% on Wednesday. 88% of the most influential components within the NASDAQ rose.
*The US employment sector continues to witness signs of a slowdown, but investor sentiment rises while the ISM Services PMI rises to a 9-month high.

USA100 – 88% of NASDAQ’s Components Rise!

The NASDAQ rose again to an all-time-high after obtaining the ideal economic data to signal a sooner rate adjustment but not a harsh landing. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change fell to 152,000 and the JOLTS Job Openings to 8,060,000. The data indicates the US employment sector is now at a higher risk of declining, but not yet necessarily on the downturn. Simultaneously the ISM Services PMI rose to a 9-month high which points to potential economic growth in the services sector.

As mentioned during yesterday’s market analysis, in order for the stock market to witness a stronger bullish impulse wave, investors will be looking for two elements. Economic data to pressure the Fed to adjust interest rates, but also some positive data to lower the risk of a recession. This was the primary reason for the strong trend observed during yesterday’s US session, marking one of the rare occasions when the asset increased without any pullbacks.

The 11 stocks with the highest “weight” all rose in value and only 12% of the most influential stocks declined. The best performing stocks were Broadcom (+6.18%), Applied Material (+5.25%) and NVIDIA (+5.16%). The only stocks which did not witness an increase were PepsiCo which fell 0.23% and Cisco Systems which fell 2.95%.

The NASDAQ is obtaining clear indications of upward price movement on all indicators (2-Hour & 4-Hour Chart). However, the price is trading slightly lower this morning which may prompt short term traders to hold off buy signals. In order to obtain a further buy signal, technical analysts point to 3 potential entry points. Based on the 100-Bar SMA the 5-Minute chart indicates a buy signal above $19,077.09, Fibonacci indicates a buy signal at $19,082.50 and the breakout level is at $19,095.00.

However, volatility is likely to rise after the European Cash Open and after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. Most economists believe the European Central Bank will cut interest rates 0.25%, and according to Bloomberg, this has almost been fully priced within the market. However, economists advise a key factor will be how many rate cuts are likely. Over the past two weeks, the Eurozone witnessed higher wage growth, economic growth and sticky inflation. Therefore, the main question will be how many interest rate cuts will come in the rest of 2024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.