Saudi Arabia's Dec 2023 Trade Surplus Dips Amid Lower Sales

Solid ECN - In December 2023, Saudi Arabia's trade surplus shrank to SAR 38.2 billion from SAR 44.2 billion the year before. The country's exports dropped by 9.7% to SAR 98.5 billion, mainly due to a 15.8% decrease in oil product sales, which make up 73.1% of total exports. Also, non-oil product exports decreased by 3% to SAR 19.15 billion, with a significant fall in plastics and rubber goods sales by 7.6%.

The main export destinations were China (14.8%), Japan (11%), and India (8.8%). On the other hand, imports decreased by 7.1% to SAR 60.4 billion, though there was a rise in the intake of machinery, appliances, and electrical gear by 21.5% and transportation equipment by 20%. China was the largest source of imports, accounting for 21%, followed by the US (8.1%) and UAE (7.8%).

USDCAD Tests Fibonacci Resistance Amid Bullish Wave

Solid ECN – The USDCAD pair is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at the 1.3529 mark, following the bullish wave that began on February 15th from the 1.3447 mark, the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have crossed above the bearish trendline with a long-bodied candlestick. This could be interpreted as a continuation of the uptrend momentum. Interestingly, the technical indicators back up this momentum, with the relative strength index pointing upwards and the awesome oscillator flipping above the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the U.S. dollar is likely to gain more against the Canadian dollar, and the next target for the buyers could be the 1.3585 resistance.

On the flip side, the bullish trendline is the primary support for the uptrend. The uptrend scenario outlined above should be invalidated if the price falls below this level corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level or the 1.3471 mark.

USDCAD Price Analysis: Testing 23.6% Fibonacci Resistance

When writing, the USDCAD price is 1.352, slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance currently under test. The technical indicators are bullish, with the RSI floating above 50, and the AO bars are green beyond the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the bulls must break the 1.3529 resistance for the primary uptrend to continue. If this scenario unfolds, the next bullish target will be the February higher high at 1.3585.

On the flip side, if the USDCAD price falls below the 1.3504 mark, the decline would extend to the 50% Fibonacci resistance. This is where the ascending trendline supports the trend. It’s worth noting that as long as this trendline remains unbroken, the primary USDCAD trend should be considered bullish.

U.S. Dollar Index Tests Fibonacci Support: A Technical Analysis

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar index is testing the $10,341 mark, below the 23.6% Fibonacci support level. Subsequently, the DXY index is experiencing a decline within the bearish flag following its breakdown from the bullish channel, as depicted in the 4-hour chart. The technical indicators also show similar patterns in alignment with this new trend. Specifically, the RSI indicator is floating below 50, and the bars of the awesome oscillator are in red.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the trend is downward as long as the index trades below the Ichimoku cloud. If the bears maintain their positions, the next target could be the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, followed by the $10,240 mark.

On the flip side, if the bulls push the price above the Ichimoku cloud, the bearish scenario mentioned earlier would be invalidated. In such a scenario, the index would likely test the February 14th higher high at the $10,460 mark.

Happy trading!

Pound Rises Against Dollar, Eyes Key Levels

Solid ECN – The British pound is on an upward trajectory against the U.S. Dollar, with the exchange rate hovering around 1.2600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is poised to enter the overbought zone, suggesting that the pair might soon test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before potentially launching on another bullish wave.

Furthermore, the 61.8% level, or the 1.2668 support, presents a favorable opportunity for traders to place bids in the GBPUSD bullish market. Should the 61.8% level hold, the next target for buyers could be the February high, around the 1.277 resistance mark.

Conversely, a failure to maintain levels above 1.2668 could result in the price descending to test the 50% Fibonacci support. This shift would signify a notable change in market sentiment, potentially leading to reevaluating the current bullish trend.

Offshore Yuan's Rise Amid Weakening Dollar

Solid ECN – The offshore yuan has seen a notable appreciation, reaching its highest level in three weeks, climbing toward 7.20 against the dollar. This rise is primarily attributed to the dollar's decline amid increasing uncertainties regarding future interest rate decisions in the United States. Additionally, the Chinese currency is riding a wave of positive sentiment as investors show renewed interest in Chinese markets.

This is evidenced by the significant upswing in mainland stocks, which have soared their highest points in two months. This surge in investor confidence and currency value reflects a broader trend of optimism in Chinese financial assets.

China's Aggressive Monetary Easing

In a move that surprised many, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) significantly reduced its five-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 3.95%. This decision exceeded the expectations of a modest 15 basis points cut and marked the most substantial reduction since this rate's inception in 2019. The aggressive cut underscores China's intensified efforts to stimulate economic growth amidst various domestic and global challenges.

However, the PBOC opted to maintain the one-year loan prime rate at 3.45%, indicating a nuanced approach to monetary policy. These measures are part of a broader strategy to invigorate the Chinese economy, reflecting a balanced mix of short-term stability and long-term growth initiatives.

Unleashing Capital for Growth

Earlier in the month, the PBOC took another significant step by reducing the reserve requirements for banks by 50 basis points. This strategic decision has released approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term capital, aiming to lubricate the economy's gears by enhancing liquidity and encouraging lending.

This substantial capital is anticipated to bolster economic activities, support small and medium-sized enterprises, and stimulate consumer spending. By easing the reserve requirements, the PBOC is providing banks with a greater capacity to finance business projects and consumer needs, thereby fueling the overall growth trajectory of the Chinese economy amidst evolving global financial landscapes.

GBPUSD Bullish Trend Faces Slowdown

Solid ECN – The GBPUSD trades inside the bullish channel and above the 50 exponential moving average (EMA). This indicates that the primary trend is bullish. However, the awesome oscillator shows signs of a slowdown in the trend.

From a technical standpoint, the 50%Fibonacci retracement level supports the bull market, and the bottom line of the flag further supports this zone. Therefore, as long as the pair trades above it, the technical analysis for the GBPUSD predicts more upward momentum. In this case, the channel's upper band can be considered the next bullish target. It is worth noting that the price must exceed the declining trendline, depicted in blue, to reach the target.

Conversely, the above technical analysis would be invalidated if the price falls below %50 Fibonacci. If this scenario continues, traders should wait to see how the price reacts to the 50 EMA and the Ichimoku cloud support zone.

US Building Permits Dip Slightly in January 2024

Solid ECN – In January 2024, the US saw a slight drop in building permits by 0.3%, adjusting to 1.489 million from the previous month's 1.493 million, yet this was still above the early estimate of 1.470 million. The permits for more significant developments, specifically those with five or more units, decreased significantly by 5.8% to 419 thousand, marking the lowest point since October 2020.

However, there was a positive turn in the permits for single-family homes, which climbed 2.2% to reach a 20-month peak of 1.021 million. Geographically, permit numbers went down in the South by 7.8% to 793 thousand but rose in other areas: 0.3% to 339 thousand in the West, 5.6% to 208 thousand in the Midwest, and a substantial 52% to 149 thousand in the Northeast.

Natural Gas Prices Edge Up Amid Oversupply Issues

Solid ECN – US natural gas prices slightly increased to just over $1.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) after falling by 7.5% in the previous session. This change is happening as the market deals with an excess supply, high levels of storage, and reduced need for heating because of the hot winter. Nevertheless, there is some upward pressure on prices as producers cut back on how much they produce.

Although there was a short interruption in supply in January because of freezing weather, gas production is still at all-time highs. The warm conditions have resulted in much higher than average gas reserves, with recent data from the Energy Information Administration indicating that storage is 22.3% above normal levels. Chesapeake Energy has reduced its production outlook for 2024 by about 30% after a significant price fall to the lowest point in over three years. Important companies like Antero Resources, Comstock Resources, and EQT have also reduced their drilling and production activities due to the current market scenario.

USDJPY Pair Analysis: Bullish Channel and Ichimoku Cloud

Solid ECN – The USDJPY pair is testing the lower band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the Ichimoku cloud. The 4-hour chart has formed a doji candlestick, which can be interpreted as a signal for the continuation of the bull market.

From a technical standpoint, if the Ichimoku cloud remains intact, the bullish trend should continue, and the first milestone would be the 150.8 resistance.

On the other hand, if the USDJPY price falls below the Ichimoku cloud, the consolidation might extend to the 148.9 support.

Gold Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge Amid Technical Indicators

Solid ECN – The price of gold has fallen to \$2,030 against the U.S. dollar, reaching the lower band of the bullish flag, depicted in red. The Awesome Oscillator indicator shows signs of divergence, suggesting that the bears attempt to cross below the \$2,028 threshold. Adding to this bearish sentiment, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is closing below the median line, lending credibility to the recent XAU/USD price decline.

From a technical perspective, for the bull market to continue, the price of gold needs to stabilize above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a task that it failed to achieve this week.

On the flip side, if the price crosses the bullish flag and maintains a position below the \$2,039 resistance level, the decline will likely extend its reach to the Ichimoku cloud, a resistance level further powered by the 50% Fibonacci level.

EURUSD Analysis: Bearish Trend is Likely to Continue

Solid ECN – The Euro trades around 1.082 against the U.S. Dollar in Wednesday's trading session, stabilizing itself below the broken ascending trendline, as illustrated in the 4-hour chart. This breakout could be interpreted as a temporary or long-term shift in market direction, transitioning from a bull to a bear market.

Furthermore, as the EURUSD tests the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, technical indicators suggest that the decline, which began from the 1.0865 higher low, is likely to continue.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, with the price maintaining its position within the bearish flag, depicted in black lines, the bear market is expected to extend and potentially test the 50% Fibonacci support, followed by the 61.8% level.

Conversely, the 1.0866 level acts as resistance. The bearish outlook should be invalidated if the EURUSD price exceeds this level.