EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Falls to Its Lowest Level Since Mid-August

EUR/USD

The euro strengthened on Monday as the dollar fell on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again. Traders this week will have to weigh data on how the US economy performed in the third quarter, as well as key data on consumer inflation and spending, both of which could play an important role in setting expectations for the timing of the first rate cut.

The focus this week will be Thursday's October US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report, which is said to be the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, as well as eurozone consumer inflation data for greater clarity on where prices and monetary policy are heading. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the nearest resistance can be seen at 1.1023, a breakout to the upside could trigger a rise to 1.1046. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0966, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0924.

At the highs of the week, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue its corrective decline.

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BTC/USD Analysis: New High for the Year Shows Bulls Are Indecisive

During November, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 10% in anticipation of the launch of a bitcoin ETF. But the positive sentiment of crypto investors is seriously overshadowed by news regarding Binance:

→ Changpeng Zhao resigned as head of Binance.US, pleading guilty to money laundering charges. He also agreed to pay $50 million in a lawsuit from the US Department of Justice, and his company will have to pay $4.3 billion. This fine to Binance was one of the largest in the history of punishment of corporations. In addition, Zhao faces up to 10 years in prison. The judges banned him from leaving the United States until the proceedings are completed.

→ Cristiano Ronaldo was sued for $1 billion for advertising Binance. This was done by people who claim they suffered losses by buying unregistered securities that the sports star was promoting.

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European Currencies at Strategic Levels

The downward trend in the US currency continues to gain momentum. Thus, the euro/dollar pair yesterday tested important resistance at 1.1000, the pound/dollar pair strengthened to 1.2700, and the usd/cad pair fell below 1.3600. A lot of important groundwork is expected today in both the European and American sessions. Depending on the published data, these pairs may either go into correction or continue the main movements.

GBP/USD

The British currency is growing for the third week in a row. Yesterday, buyers of the pair managed to rise above 1.2700, but so far there has been no confident consolidation above this level. A reversal bar has formed at 1.2660 on the daily timeframe. If it begins to work out, a corrective price reduction to 1.2600-1.2500 is possible. A price move above yesterday's high at 1.2730 may contribute to a test of the psychological level at 1.3000.

Today at 10:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the Nationwide House Price Index in the UK for November.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

The USD/CAD Rate Drops to Its Minimum of 2 Months

This morning, 1 USD was selling for less than 1.354 Canadian dollars – for the first time since October 1st.

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the weakening of the USD was facilitated by the news published yesterday:
→ Canada's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in September, which exceeded analysts' expectations and reduced the relevance of the recession scenario in Canada.
→ The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week amounted to 218k (a week earlier it was 211k), which may indicate a cooling of the US economy.
→ The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell to 3% from the previous value of 3.4%. While 3% remains too high to declare victory over inflation, it marks a new series low that is sure to reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.

In our previous analysis of the USD/CAD market, we wrote that the price could form a rebound from support in the area of 1.36625. However, the rebound to point E was very weak, and after the breakdown, the level 1.36625 showed resistance properties.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Growing Against Euro and Pound

The US personal consumer spending price index rose 3% in October from a year earlier, down from the three-month rate of 3.4%, although still above the Fed's 2% target, raising the possibility of an early rate cut. Jobless claims rose over the past week, indicating a slowing labour market. Inflation, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), remained unchanged in October after rising 0.4% in September.

EUR/USD

According to the technical analysis of EUR/USD, the pair is showing noticeable growth, correcting after an active decline the day before, which turned out to be the most significant in the last few weeks. The euro is testing the 1.0900 mark for an upward breakout, awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the EU and the USA. Among other things, speeches are expected throughout the day from the heads of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, who are likely to comment on the likelihood of ending the monetary policy tightening program amid a sharp slowdown in price pressure.

The day before, November inflation data was published in the eurozone. The consumer price index in annual terms fell from 2.9% to 2.4%, which was significantly lower than forecasts of 2.7% and was the slowest growth rate since July 2021, and in monthly terms the figure was -0.5%. Core inflation slowed from 4.2% to 3.6% in annual terms, which was also below expectations at 3.9%, and in monthly terms the index decreased by 0.6%. At the same time, the day before, ECB head Christine Lagarde said that price growth could resume in the near future due to certain factors.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0940, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1000. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0872, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800.

Based on the lows of two days, a new downward channel has formed. Now the price has moved away from the lower border of the channel and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens after Fed Chairman's Comments

Today, investors are assessing the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the interest rate is currently at a restrictive level, but the regulator allows for the possibility of another increase if necessary. The manufacturing business activity index from S&P Global in the US remained at 49.4 points, which coincided with analysts' forecasts, and the same indicator from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained at 46.7 points, contrary to forecasts for growth to 47.6 points. The manufacturing index of gradual acceleration of inflation from the ISM in November sharply increased from 45.1 points to 49.9 points, while experts expected 46.2 points. In the US today, statistics on the volume of manufacturing orders will be presented: in October, the figure may lose 2.5% after growing by 2.8% in the previous month.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the euro is testing the 1.0870 level for a breakdown downwards, but activity on the market remains restrained. Investors today are watching publications from Germany, where exports in October adjusted from -2.5% to 0.2%, and imports from -1.9% to -1.2%, while the trade surplus widened from 16.7 billion euros to 17.0 billion euros, signaling the recovery of the national economy, despite the long-term hawkish course of the ECB. In addition, representatives of the European regulator, as well as its head Christine Lagarde, are expected to speak during the day. Officials may refine their plans for the monetary policy outlook given that inflation continues to show fairly consistent signs of decline.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0892, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0977. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0822, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0758.

Based on last week's lows, a new downward channel has formed. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline after approaching the upper border of the channel.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

5 Stocks To Consider in December 2023

As we approach the curtain call for 2023, it's time to reflect on a year filled with market-shaping events. From the resurrection of tech stocks to the fall of financial institutions, the capital markets sector has been anything but dull. Against a backdrop of geopolitical shifts and the paradox of rising interest rates amid reduced inflation, investors and traders are closing the year with a multitude of perspectives.

In the heart of December, the spotlight is on tech stocks, particularly those powerhouse companies headquartered in Silicon Valley. Here are the top five movers in the global stock markets as the last month of the year gets underway, each with its own narrative and potential.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P500: The end of a significant rally?

Opinions vary across the financial markets this morning as the S&P 500 index, a prestigious benchmark tracking the performance of 500 major US companies, takes centre stage in recent market discussions. Just days ago, on the first trading day of December, the S&P 500 soared to its highest point in over a year, capping off at 4,594.63 points.

This upward momentum persisted until yesterday morning when the US market concluded its session, witnessing a sudden tapering of the rally. While not indicative of a crash, the decline in the S&P 500's value has piqued the interest of financial analysts. The significance lies in whether this marks a temporary blip in the midst of a more extended upward trajectory or signals the conclusion of a sustained period of growth since its all-time high in 2022.

What adds intrigue to this scenario is the S&P 500's five-week upward trend, raising questions about the potential impact on the longer-term direction of the index. A critical point of comparison emerges when assessing these traditional 'bricks and mortar' stocks against the dynamic tech stocks listed on NASDAQ. The blue-chip Dow has recorded a modest 9% gain for the year, in stark contrast to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite's impressive 35% climb in 2023.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Gold Price Retreats From Highs and Crude Oil Price Dives

Gold price is correcting gains below the $2,050 support. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $75.90 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price rallied to new highs above $2,120 before it corrected lower against the US Dollar.

• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,025 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.

• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $75 support zone.

• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $73.35 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,000 resistance. The price even traded to a new high at $2,135 before there was a downside correction.

There was a move below the $2,072 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,050 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $2,010 zone. A low is formed near $2,009.78 and the price is now attempting a fresh increase.

It is now facing resistance near a key bearish trend line at $2,025. The next major resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,135 swing high to the $2,009 low at $2,040.

The main resistance could be $2,050, above which the price could test the $2,072 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,135. An upside break above the $2,135 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,220. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,350 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,010 level. The first major support is near the $2,000 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,000 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,965 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Will rate hikes end when 2023 ends?

Finally, after a seemingly endless period of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve over the past few years, there is some degree of inkling that the rate rises may come to an end at the end of this year.

This morning, some mainstream media speculation has surfaced, considering that Federal Reserve officials are finally looking at making no further interest rate increases in 2024.

Currently, this is pure speculation based on some recent sentiment from the central bankers, and there has been some mention of a potential cessation in increasing interest rates in the last quarter of this year, which did not come to fruition. Instead, the current monetary policy continued, despite inflation now being very much under control and nowhere near the double-digit figures of two years ago, which caused the Federal Reserve (and other central banks in Western markets) to increase interest rates.

Therefore, the currency markets have responded accordingly. Rather than a sudden rise in the value of the US dollar, the British pound has been forging ahead.

In the period between November 9 and December 1, the British pound surged against the US dollar, going from 1.2290 to 1.27. Such gains are relatively rare among major currencies, and quite often, just a 1-cent difference is considered a notable movement.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

S&P 500 Analysis: Why Santa May Have Problems Rallying

It is traditionally believed that the Santa Rally occurs at the end of December and the first days of January, but according to many opinions it is acceptable to think that it begins much earlier.

At the beginning of December, the values of the S&P 500 index came close to the highs of the year in the area of 4,611, but have declined to date, forming a number of bearish signs:

→ the candle on November 29 has a long upper shadow — a sign of seller activity;
→ the same can be said about yesterday’s candle;
→ candles on December 1-4 form a bearish engulfing pattern;
→ all of the listed candles form a head-and-shoulders pattern (shown by the letters SHS).

That is, the chart indicates activation of sellers near the yearly high — and this is a problem that can affect the so-called Santa Claus rally (the active channel, shown in blue, actualizes the theme associated with the rally).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NIKKEI Analysis: Japanese Stock Market Outlook

In the first half of 2023, the Japanese stock market was dominated by bullish sentiment due to (still) negative interest rates — while the rest of the G7 countries raised their rates to combat inflation.

The NIKKEI-225 index grew by 30% in the first half of the year. But then the balance of supply and demand was achieved, judging by the daily chart, where a range was formed (shown in blue), framing the index’s fluctuations in the second half of the year. Judging by the change in the slope of the bullish trend lines, demand was sufficient to maintain the price at the lower limit of the range, but not enough to go beyond the upper limit.

The situation is fundamentally reversed. While interest rates in the US, Europe and elsewhere are thought to be near the top, there is growing talk in Japan that the central bank will begin raising them after years of being stuck in negative territory:
→ Bloomberg: The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will be held on December 19 – speculation is growing that the Bank will move away from negative interest rates as early as this month.
→ Reuters: 22 of 26 economists (85%) surveyed in November believe the Bank of Japan will abandon its negative interest rate policy by the end of next year.

The winding down of ultra-loose monetary policy could have a negative impact on the growth of Japanese companies - accordingly, the growing bearish sentiment is reflected in the index quote. Since the end of November, the NIKKEI 225 has dropped almost 5%.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.