Oil Prices Fall to Lowest Level since July

As the chart shows, the price of WTI oil has dropped below USD 77.50 – the last time prices were this high was in mid-July.

The decline in oil prices was contributed to by:
→ first, easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East and interruptions in the supply of oil produced in the region;
→ secondly, the data from Beijing. While China's crude oil imports rose in volume and value in October, the country's total exports fell 6.4% year on year, more than expected, CNBC reports. This points to a slowdown in demand in a world where central banks in many countries are keeping interest rates high to combat inflation.

Thus, supply forces prevail despite the fact that Russia and Saudi Arabia announced continued restrictions on oil production amid the conflict in the Middle East.

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Price of Gold Drops Below $1,950

This happened for the first time since mid-October, when gold was rapidly rising in price on fears related to the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East.

At the same time, the psychological level of USD 2,000 per ounce demonstrated its importance.

Notice the volatility spikes around it — the bulls were active in the attacks, noticeable on the 4-hour chart, but all the progress made on the upward impulses was almost immediately canceled out by the bears.

The graph shows:
→ formation of a reversal pattern SHS (head-and-shoulders). With some subjectivity, we can assume that the “neck” level is around USD 1,970. But it has already been broken after a weak rebound;
→ the price dropped below EMA (100).

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BTC/USD Analysis: New High of the Year

The bitcoin rate exceeded USD 36,500 per coin for the first time in 2023.

This is fueled by pending approval of Bitcoin ETF applications pending before the SEC. According to the latest information, SEC representatives are in contact with the Grayscale fund, one of those who submitted applications. This increased confidence that applications would be approved. Moreover:
→ applications can be approved all together and then several ETFs will start working simultaneously, making it possible that potentially billions of dollars will be directed to the purchase of bitcoins;
→ this can happen before January 10, 2024.

The creation of ETFs will open up new opportunities for a wide range of investors to easily invest in the main cryptocurrency, while reducing the risks associated with opening an account on a crypto exchange, hacked wallets, or sanctions from regulators.

The BTC/USD chart today shows that the price of bitcoin broke through the USD 36,000 level on an expanding candle, indicating the strength of demand.

How far can the bitcoin rate go up?

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ETH/USD Growing Rapidly on News from BlackRock

As it became known, BlackRock has filed an application with the SEC for an ETF based on spot Ethereum. Information about the iShares Ethereum Trust appeared on the Nasdaq website.

If such an expression is acceptable, the price of the second cryptocurrency has gone in pursuit of bitcoin, which is rewriting the highs of the year amid expectations associated with the approval of applications for ETFs for spot bitcoin — approval from the SEC already seems inevitable.

In just 10 hours after the news was published, the price of ETH/USD increased by more than 10%. The excitement is fueled by speculation that other Wall Street giants may file bids after BlackRock.

The ETH/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of Ethereum came close to the year’s high at 2140, set in April;
→ RSI indicates that the market is extremely overbought, which means it is vulnerable to a pullback.

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GBP/USD Dips Again While EUR/GBP Gains Strength

GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2430 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8755 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2310 support.

• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2245 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.

• EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8720 zone.

• There is a major rising channel forming with support near 0.8735 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2370, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2430 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2310 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.2250. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2200 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2187 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2428 swing high to the 1.2187 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 50-hour simple moving average and a bearish trend line at 1.2245. The next major resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2428 swing high to the 1.2187 low at 1.2310.

A close above the 1.2310 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2370. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2430.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2210. If there is a downside break below the 1.2210 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2185 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2120. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2040 support.

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Bank of England Initiates Stress Test In Aftermath of Liz Truss Budget Disaster

In a groundbreaking move, the Bank of England has called upon more than 50 financial institutions in the City to conduct a comprehensive stress test, simulating the repercussions of a sudden and drastic movement in bond prices. This initiative marks the first financial system-wide stress test of its kind, reflecting the central bank's proactive stance in assessing and fortifying the resilience of the financial sector.

The call for stress testing follows the turmoil experienced in bond markets and the sterling aftermath triggered by Liz Truss's mini-budget in September 2022. During this period, pension funds faced significant pressure, and some teetered on the brink of collapse. The pronounced shift in bond prices and corresponding interest rates underscored the inherent risks associated with specific forms of liability-driven investing (LDI), particularly concerning retirement savings.

This pivotal stress test, involving major players such as big banks, asset managers, hedge funds, pension funds, and major insurers, aims to evaluate how these entities would fare in the face of an unforeseen swing in bond prices. The participants are required to model and analyse the potential impacts on their operations, with results due to be shared with the central bank by January.

The stress test encompasses abrupt and sustained fluctuations in the value of both corporate bonds and sovereign debt, encompassing renowned government bonds like UK gilts. The Bank of England's scenario involves a 10-day-long "shock to rates and risky asset prices," combining multiple elements to simulate a comprehensive market disruption.

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BTC/USD Analysis: JP Morgan Analysts Warn of a Possible Correction

Last week, the BTC/USD rate rose to the level of USD 38k per coin on the excitement associated with the expected launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

However, as the week begins, bitcoin price performance shows signs that the hype appears to be waning:

→ the speed with which the price dropped from the upper boundary of the channel and the high of the year to the middle of the channel (about -USD 1,700 in a few hours) indicates the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ the price tried to resume its upward trend, but failed. This can be seen from the downward reversals from the level of 37,500
→ the fact that the slopes of trend lines (shown in black) become less sharp is also a sign of weakening bullish sentiment.

It turns out that after a pronounced surge last week, the price has already dropped below the median line of the channel, and the MACD remains in the red zone.

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London Markets Anticipate Opening Decline with Focus on US Inflation and UK Jobs Data

As investors remain attuned to the imminent US inflation report and scrutinise the latest UK jobs data, London stocks are poised to open on a downward trajectory.

The FTSE 100 opened approximately 10 points lower at 7,416 this morning in the London session.

Earlier figures from the Office for National Statistics unveiled that wage growth in the three months to September experienced a mild deceleration. However, earnings growth surpassed inflation, while the unemployment rate maintained its stability.

Including bonuses, average wage growth dipped to 7.9%, down from an upwardly-revised 8.2% the previous month. This contrasts with the 6.7% inflation rate. Economists had anticipated a decline to 7.4% in wage growth, including bonuses.

Excluding bonuses, wage growth eased to 7.7% in the same period, slipping from 7.8%. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.

The Office for National Statistics in the UK noted that labour market figures depict a relatively unaltered scenario, with proportions of employed, unemployed, and those not actively seeking employment showing marginal changes from the previous quarter.

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EUR/USD Rallies Post US CPI While USD/JPY Takes Hit

EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.0775 resistance. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 151.00 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro is rising and trading well above the 1.0835 resistance zone.

• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0775 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

• USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 151.00 and 150.70 levels.

• There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 151.65 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0660 zone. The Euro climbed above the 1.0750 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above the 1.0775 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.0885 resistance. A high is formed near 1.0887 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

If there is a downside correction, the pair might test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0665 swing low to the 1.0886 high at 1.0835. The next major support is forming near a key bullish trend line at 1.0775.

The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0665 swing low to the 1.0886 high. The next key support is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0750. If there is a downside break below 1.0750, the pair could drop toward the 1.0705 support. The main support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0660, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.0885. The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level. An upside break above 1.0920 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0980.

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Sterling Makes Modest Gains Following Cabinet Reshuffle by PM Rishi Sunak

In a move that echoed through financial markets, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak undertook a cabinet reshuffle on Monday, elevating former Prime Minister David Cameron to the position of foreign minister while simultaneously dismissing Interior Minister Suella Braverman.

The impact on the financial landscape was subtle, with analysts emphasising that short-term fluctuations in sterling would be steered more by economic indicators and the U.S. dollar's trajectory than immediate political developments in the UK.

As of the latest update, the British Pound exhibited a 0.2% increase, reaching $1.2248, and a similar uptick against the euro, standing at 87.28 pence.

While the reshuffle prompted a 0.6% rise in the FTSE 100 and a 3 basis points drop in the benchmark 10-year UK gilt yields, experts suggest that domestic political matters, including cabinet shifts, may not exert significant influence on global investors.

Investors are turning their attention to the upcoming release of the consumer price index (CPI) for October on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters anticipate a 4.8% year-on-year increase, a decrease from September's 6.7%. This shift is attributed to the slower ascent in the costs of essentials such as energy and food in recent months.

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Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024

Since the beginning of November, the price of Brent oil has decreased by more than 5%. This is due, among other things, to easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest news:
→ Reuters: Iran does not plan to fight with Israel on the side of Hamas;
→ the UN Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the conflict.

Data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States above expectations also contributed to the price decline. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4% to 439.4 million barrels from 421.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is the highest inventory level since August.

Technically, the price of Brent oil is in a downtrend (shown by red lines). Moreover:
→ on November 14, the Brent price tested the median line, which acted as resistance;
→ during this test, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed, which confirms the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ USD 81.81 may now serve as immediate resistance while another important level of USD 84.50 appears out of reach – at least in November.

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MSFT Analysis: New All-time High

Yesterday, Microsoft's share price exceeded USD 375 for the first time ever. This happened against the backdrop of news about the company’s activities, which was favorably received by investors:

→ Microsoft introduced its own Maia 100 chip for cloud computing and AI programs that create content. The company is also testing Maia 100 for Bing and Office.
→ The company also presented Cobalt — a server processor,
→ and more: new AI tools from the Copilot series. For example, Copilot for Azure is an AI assistant for clients of a cloud computing service that works in chat mode.

Expectations that the Fed will cut rates, which intensified following Tuesday's inflation news, is another factor contributing to the bullish sentiment in Microsoft shares.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.