Gold Price Rallies Toward $2K While Crude Oil Price Takes Hit

Gold price surged above the $1,960 resistance during the Israel-Hamas war escalated. Crude oil price struggled and declined below the $85.75 support.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,974 zone against the US Dollar.

• A key bullish trend line is forming with support near $1,982 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.

• Crude oil prices failed to clear the $89.50 region and started a fresh decline.

• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $83.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,940 zone. The price remained in bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,960 during the Israel-Hamas war.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,974 and $1,982 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $1,995 zone before the bears appeared.

There was a minor downside correction below $1,980 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

The price remained strong above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,953 swing low to the $1,993 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,982. Initial support on the downside is near $1,982 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major support is near the $1,974 zone. If there is a downside break below the $1,974 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,960 support.

Immediate resistance is near the $1,995 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,000 level. An upside break above the $2,000 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,050 level.

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Price of Gold Stabilises Near Its 5-month Highs

The XAU/USD rate fluctuates around $1,987 – the July high was formed around this price. And having overcome it, the market stabilized, as evidenced by the ADX indicator, which dropped to its minimum for the month.

Gold is up about 9% in three weeks on war fears. Moreover, if we take the year 2023, then gold has become a more profitable investment than the stock market, since according to Dow Jones Market Data, as of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 SPX index has gained 7.8% since January 1, at that time as front-month gold futures gained 9.2% over the same period.

On Friday, gold traders are focused on the release of US Core PCE Price Index values at 15:30 GMT+3. News about inflation could cause significant turbulence in the gold market.

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GBP/USD Remains At Risk While EUR/GBP Turns Green

GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.2285 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and might climb above the 0.8720 resistance.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.2200 support.

• There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2155 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.

• EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8700 zone.

• There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8720 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair attempted a fresh increase above 1.2200, as discussed in the previous analysis. However, the British Pound failed above 1.2285 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.2200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair 1.2155. Finally, there was a spike below the 1.2110 support zone. A low was formed near 1.2069 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

There was a minor move above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low.

On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key contracting triangle at 1.2155. The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2284 swing high to the 1.2069 low at 1.2200.

A close above the 1.2200 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2285. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2350.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.2110. If there is a downside break below the 1.2110 support, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 1.2075 zone, below which the pair could test 1.2020. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2000 support.

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Economic Calendar: BoE and Fed Meetings, Apple Earnings, and US Labour Data

On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Analysts' opinions are divided. Some believe that the surge in bond yields signals that the Fed will likely keep the rate at 5.5%. Others say strong GDP and PCE data released on Friday strengthened the case for the Fed to keep rates higher for an extended period. Therefore, one more rate hike may occur before this tightening cycle is over. The hawkish tone of the central bank may contribute to the growth of the US dollar and decline in the S&P 500 index, which has fallen over 10% since late July when it reached a one-year-high.

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USD/JPY Analysis: Playing with Fire Continues

Yesterday, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the Bank of Japan is considering adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

This provoked a strengthening of the yen (1). The USD/JPY rate dropped to a two-week extreme of 148.8 per US dollar in anticipation of news from the Bank of Japan.

The news followed this morning (2). The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at -0.1% and also said the 1% ceiling on the benchmark 10-year yield would be an upper bound rather than a hard limit.

As a result of the Bank's decision, the USD/JPY rate returned to the area above 150 yen per US dollar.

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EUR/USD Resumes Drop, USD/JPY Extends Surge

EUR/USD is again moving lower below the 1.0615 support. USD/JPY surged and broke the 151.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0675 support zone.

• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 levels.

• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 149.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0700 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0615 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0595 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0570. A low is formed near 1.0557 and the pair is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0585.

The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.0595. The first key resistance is the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0675 swing high to the 1.0557 low at 1.0615.

A clear move above the 1.0615 level could send the pair toward the 1.0675 resistance. An upside break above 1.0675 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0750.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0560. The next key support is at 1.0525. If there is a downside break below 1.0525, the pair could drop toward 1.0500. The next support is near 1.0485, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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Bank of England's November Interest Rate Decision and Its Potential Impact on the Pound

The British pound faces a crucial test as the Bank of England (BoE) prepares to announce its November interest rate decision. The outcome could significantly influence the pound's value, but several factors come into play.

If all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote to maintain the current interest rate, and there are no substantial alterations to inflation and growth forecasts, the pound may remain relatively unaffected. This decision aligns with market expectations and is unlikely to cause significant ripples in financial markets.

However, for forward-looking observers, the key focus will be on the guidance provided in the policy statement and the forecasts outlined in the Monetary Policy Report.

Some market sentiment suggests that the BoE might aim to maintain its 'high-for-longer' message, ensuring it remains the primary takeaway from November's policy statement. Such a message could lend support to the pound.

In recent times, there have been no upward adjustments to the base rate, accompanied by indications that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon. This message may offer some upside for GBP, especially given the already modest expectations for further tightening.

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Bitcoin Updates Its Maximum for the Year

The cryptocurrency market showed a correlation with the stock market, gaining bullish momentum amid softening rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

The price of the main cryptocurrency reached USD 35,900 for the first time in 18 months.

Wherein:
→ the positivity is also due to expectations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a Bitcoin ETF. According to analysts at Bernstein (an asset management firm), this could happen by the first quarter of 2024.
→ according to the same analysts, the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 150k by 2025;
→ Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, called bitcoin a commodity currency or exponential gold that aims to be a store of value and a hedge against monetary depreciation.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Show Signs of Life

AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb above 0.6450. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.5915 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6350 and 0.6400 levels against the US Dollar.

• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6425 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.

• NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.5870 support.

• There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with support near 0.5885 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6320 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6350 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6400 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6455 zone. A high is formed near 0.6456 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6425. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near the same zone.

The next support could be the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6400. If there is a downside break below the 0.6400 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6318 swing low to the 0.6456 high at 0.6350.

Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6320. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6455.

The first major resistance might be 0.6480. An upside break above the 0.6480 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6550 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6620 resistance zone.

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US Economic Conundrum: Will Rising Interest Rates Affect Spending or the Job Market First?

It is a classic economic puzzle akin to the chicken-and-egg dilemma: as interest rates reach their highest levels in over two decades, which vital component of the economy will give way first—spending or employment?

When consumers tighten their purse strings, businesses experience a drop in revenue, and this, in turn, can lead to layoffs as profits dwindle. Conversely, when companies reduce their workforce, individuals find themselves with less money to spend. It is a delicate dance, and the intricacies of this relationship remain a subject of much debate among economists.

For now, it appears that spending remains robust, and businesses continue their hiring spree. The key question is why? Some contend that the robust job market is driving consumer spending, while others argue that strong consumer demand enables employers to maintain a solid hiring pace.

Consumer spending plays a pivotal role in the US economic landscape, contributing to approximately 70% of the nation's economic output. Consequently, it acts as a litmus test for the overall health and trajectory of the American economy.

Determining which will weaken first—spending or hiring—entails consideration of various nuances. Factors such as the lingering effects of pandemic-era savings, varying degrees of pent-up demand for specific goods and services, and the ever-evolving economic landscape across different business cycles all come into play.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.