EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is currently undergoing a test of the Tenkan-Sen line. The pair is trending downwards, beneath the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a potential bearish trend. It's anticipated that there will be a test of the Cloud's upper boundary at 1.0565, which will then be followed by a drop to 1.0365. A bounce off the bullish channel's lower boundary will serve as an additional signal to confirm this downward trend. However, if there's a breakout at the Cloud's upper boundary and the price stabilizes above 1.0605, this scenario will be invalidated, suggesting a possible rise to 1.0705.

SOLUSD Analysis
Amidst the ETF rumors, Solana’s price experienced a significant surge, peaking at $27, a trend that was mirrored by other cryptocurrencies. This spike in SOLUSD’s price resulted in it reaching the $24 - $27 resistance zone, causing both the RSI indicator and Stochastic oscillator to enter the overbought region.

Technical indicators suggest an impending market correction. With SOLUSD breaking the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, it’s anticipated that Solana will correct its recent gains and potentially decline to $22.4, aligning with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands.

This scenario is contingent on SOLUSD closing below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart, which is currently around $23.5. If bearish momentum is observed, we can expect SOLUSD’s bearish trend to persist, with initial targets set at $23.24, followed by the $22 pivot point.

EURJPY

At the time of this EURJPY market analysis, the EURJPY is navigating a bullish channel, with the RSI indicator maintaining a position above the 50 level. On October 3, the pair managed to stay above the Ichimoku cloud, resulting in the continuation of the EURJPY uptrend. The primary hurdle for the EURJPY bulls is at the 158.64 mark.

For the bullish trend to persist, it’s crucial for the EURJPY bulls to achieve a close above the 158.64 level. Should this occur, the next target for this currency pair would be projected towards the 162.0 area.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has successfully breached the $28,000 threshold. This significant level had previously maintained Bitcoin’s price within a range of $28,000 to $25,000 since mid-August 2023.

Upon examining the BTCUSD 4-hour chart, it’s evident that Bitcoin, often referred to as ‘digital gold’, is trading within a bullish channel. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is currently in the overbought zone. The critical level that sustains BTCUSD’s bullish trend is $27,952. As long as the price remains above this level, Bitcoin is likely to trade above the median line of the bullish channel. Given that the RSI is in the overbought territory, a minor decline to the R1 level is anticipated. This level presents a substantial supply zone for BTCUSD bulls.

If the R1 level is breached, the next bearish target for the bulls would be the $27,237 pivot point, followed by the lower boundary of the bullish channel.

EURJPY: Navigating the Fluctuations and Identifying Trading Opportunities

The EURJPY currency pair seems to have returned to its usual fluctuations after resisting a downward trend two weeks ago, which saw it drop to a three-month low at 154.39.

This decline went below the low of September and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but managed to close above these levels in the following sessions.

This situation could present opportunities for a range trading strategy. For more insights on range trading, explore our related resources.

In terms of support, it could be found at the breakpoint and a recent low around 156.50. If there’s a continued downward trend, keep an eye on the previous lows and breakpoints at 154.39, 153.45, 151.60, 151.40, and 151.07.

Looking upwards, resistance might be encountered at recent highs and breakpoints near 158.65, 159.50, and 159.75.

October 19 Market Overview

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has noted that there are distortions in the market prices. For example, the DXY is trading above its 50-year monthly average at around 99.00, and GBP/JPY is trading between 179.50 to 181.07, which is between its 36 and 37-year monthly averages. Last year, WTI traded at the 24-year monthly average when it was in the 70's. USD/JPY and EUR/USD need to align with DXY's 50-year monthly averages.

The SPX 500 is trading normally between its 1 and 10-year monthly averages. The speculation for XAU/USD and Gold, priced in all currencies, also trades between their 1 and 10-year monthly averages. However, these will not adjust to distorted locations and prices until the currency price trades normally again.

Central banks need to lower interest rates to normalize markets and currency prices. This is because the Federal Reserve's (Fed) increase of 500 points has caused distortions in market prices, especially since these increases did not reduce inflation.

The Fed's strategy to follow Volker was a complete failure. If the Fed had not increased rates, markets would be trading normally today and inflation would also be at normal levels and decrease faster than expected.

In terms of monetary policy, central banks consider inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates as import lines. The exchange rate should ideally be in the middle of import and export lines. Export lines include GDP, money supplies, and producer prices.

The position of the exchange rate is currently incorrect due to central bank increases which have distorted import/export prices and consequently, market prices.

Market normalization only occurs two weeks of every month when most vital GDP and inflation are released as import and export lines. GDP and inflation are running per month at differences of 0.10 to 0.20. At this rate, central banks may take until 2050 to normalize inflation at 2% while markets remain distorted and GDP remains low.

A major issue is the daily trade of interest rates at 2, 3, and 5 points. Central Banks raise by 500 points but offer daily trades at only 5 points. This problem won't see normalization anytime soon.

In terms of exports exceeding imports, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is doing well compared to the Fed, Bank of Japan (BOJ), Bank of England (BOE), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) where imports exceed exports.

Last week, EUR/USD and other EUR currencies were oversold but have since risen. This week, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/CHF are deeply oversold while EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD are overbought. GBP is trading similarly to EUR with GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, and GBP/JPY being deeply oversold.

There are issues as overbought EUR/AUD trades oversold to GBP/AUD, overbought EUR/NZD trades oversold to GBP/NZD, and oversold GBP/CAD trades oversold to EUR/CAD.

Next week we're watching for GBP/AUD at 1.9196 while GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD correct lower but fail to break any significant averages.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD are all not only massively oversold but close to extreme oversold. There's no concept of shorts for next week.

EUR/USD must trade at least to 1.0652 then trade above 1.0685 to easily target 1.0819 or higher.

GBP/USD has a minimum target at 1.2332; AUDUSD at 0.6539; NZDUSD has a minimum target between 0.6047 and 0.6214.

The anchor pairs must bring us back to normal trading again which means wider ranges, more profitable trades, and more currencies to trade.

The USD/JPY pair has a target of 148.07 for next week. The long-term targets are 144.27, 136.53, 131.99, and 128.60. It’s important to note that the 128.60 level in January was at 122.00, and this line has increased by about 60 pips each month for the past nine months.

The USD/JPY pair has the potential to move by 1000 pips in a day, but this isn’t seen as a significant move. Currently, USD/JPY is trading with daily movements of only around 50 to 70 pips, indicating significant distortions.

For the EUR/JPY pair, there’s a significant drop to 156.21, and for GBP/JPY it’s 180.62. GBP/JPY is expected to lead the way for all JPY cross pairs. Keep an eye on AUD/JPY next week for potential long and short positions at 94.32 and NZD/JPY at 87.61.

USD/CAD is trading in an overbought condition as usual and continues to aim for the long-term target in the 1.3100 range. The best strategy is to only trade short in order to follow the trend.

EURUSD

Stable Interest Rates and Outlook: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates and its outlook stable in its upcoming meeting. The current interest rate level is seen as contributing substantially to achieving the inflation target.

Impact of Higher Oil Prices: Questions may arise about the impact of higher oil prices due to a potential crisis in the Middle East. The effects could vary, with possible inflation increase on one hand, and loss of purchasing power for households and businesses on the other.

Decline in Inflation Rate: A long-term decline in the inflation rate is expected, with uncertainty about the speed. Factors such as a weak economy could accelerate the decline, while stronger wage increases could slow it down.

Eurozone PMI Data: A flash estimate of Eurozone PMI data will be published next week, with no immediate improvement in sentiment expected for October. However, an increase in growth momentum in the Eurozone is anticipated from the first half of 2024.

Technical

The currency pair is currently trending downwards within a bearish channel, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the verge of dipping below the midpoint of 50. If the bears manage to close below the bullish channel (indicated in blue), we can expect the downward trend to persist, with targets set at Support 1 (S1) and subsequently Support 2 (S2).

On the other hand, Resistance 1 (R1) is set at 1.06. If the currency pair closes above this resistance level on the 4-hour chart, it would indicate a continuation of the bullish trend that began earlier this month.

EURGBP

The EURGBP currency pair has been increasing in value for six consecutive days, reaching its highest point in over five months. This rise is part of a larger upward trend that started on August 23, 2023, when the value was at 0.8492.

This trend has been boosted by weaker than expected retail sales in the UK in September. The value has surpassed a significant level at 0.8735 but may face some resistance as the market is overbought and traders might start taking profits, which could lead to a period of stability.

Despite this, the pair is set to make substantial gains this week, indicating that the upward trend is still strong. Any short-term stability should ideally be above the previous high of September 26 and the 200-day moving average (0.8705 / 0.8695) to maintain the upward momentum.

However, be cautious if the value drops significantly and closes below 0.8678 as this could weaken the upward trend and make further declines more likely.

The resistance levels to watch are: 0.8735; 0.8792; 0.8808; 0.8863. The support levels to watch are: 0.8705; 0.8695; 0.8678; 0.8662.

Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride: Predictions from the Pros

As Bitcoin’s wild ride keeps everyone guessing, big names are dropping hints about where it might head next. Currently, Bitcoin is at $30,377, a tiny bit higher than yesterday.

The Dollar’s Dive: Schiff’s Scary Prediction

Peter Schiff, a money expert, thinks trouble’s brewing for the US dollar. He predicts a long-lasting money slump and prices going up too fast, which isn’t good news for folks with dollars. But for Bitcoin, it might be a silver lining.

Saylor Says Bitcoin’s a Winner

Then there’s Michael Saylor, a big Bitcoin fan, showing off how well his Bitcoin plan has worked. His company, MicroStrategy, loves Bitcoin so much; they bought more, now owning a stash worth a whopping $4.68 billion. This big move might be giving Bitcoin’s price a nudge up.

Kiyosaki’s Crystal Ball: Gold Glitters, Bitcoin Booms

Robert Kiyosaki, the guy who wrote “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” thinks Bitcoin could shoot up to an amazing $135,000. He’s also big on gold, expecting it to do pretty well.

Predicting Bitcoin’s Next Move

Looking at Bitcoin’s recent price chart, there are some key numbers to watch. It’s swinging around $29,208, with the next big hurdle at $31,207. If it breaks through that, it could head for $32,440 or even $34,473. But if it starts slipping, it might drop to around $29,174 or lower.

[H2]Gold [/H2]

Gold prices have stopped rising just below a five-month high on Monday. The rapid increase in prices slowed down as it got close to the $2000 mark. After a strong push back on Friday, it's clear that the $2000 area is a big hurdle. This has led traders to take some profits from the over 7% increase in the last two weeks.

Daily indicators suggest that this pause was expected, although the slight drop shows that buyers are still interested in pushing the price above $2000.

Due to unrest in the Middle East, traders are looking for safer options. The possibility of conflict escalating increases the demand for gold, which continues to drive up its price.

The slight drop in price has stabilized above the rising 5-day moving average ($1960). Any further drops are expected to stay above $1945 (the halfway point between $2080 and $1810), indicating a normal correction and keeping the overall upward trend intact.

Crude Oil

The U.S. oil industry, known as "Big Oil", is seeing growth in production and mergers. Active drilling rigs increased to 502 for oil and 122 for gas last week, marking a second week of growth. Daily oil production has hit a record 13.2 million barrels per day.

Crude oil stocks are 4% lower than last year, possibly encouraging more investment in oil production. The U.S. government's decision to buy oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve may have also played a part.

Chevron is buying Hess for $60 billion, following Exxon Mobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources for $58 billion. The easing of sanctions on Venezuela could benefit U.S. oil producers with operations there.

Long-term factors like Middle East conflicts and potential supply disruptions are encouraging investment in U.S. oil production. Despite this, OPEC+ countries are limiting production to maintain prices.

This could signal a shift from focusing on profits to a battle for market share, a challenging task given years of record interest rates. However, major players with substantial capital reserves and strong government lobbying power are now involved.

Crude oil prices are currently testing the lower boundary of a bullish channel, with the Stochastic oscillator indicating an oversold market condition. If prices manage to settle below this critical level, we could see a continuation of the downward trend, potentially reaching the S2 support level around $83.

Gold

The price of gold has retreated from the $2,000 mark and is currently testing the $1,949 support level. This decline was anticipated as the RSI and Stochastic indicators were in the overbought zone.

A closer look at the 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of gold’s price action. The precious metal formed a hammer candlestick pattern at the pivot point ($1,962), and the stochastic oscillator is nearing the overbought zone, indicating a potential exit from this area. The RSI indicator remains above 50.

Considering current market data, technical indicators, and key levels, if the price can maintain above $1,949, it’s likely that the XAUUSD price will rise to R3 ($2,025).

Conversely, if bears manage to push the price below $1,949, we could see a continued decline towards the upper line of the bearish channel around $1,900.