ETHEREUM

ETHEREUM price fell over 6.0% on Friday and broke below psychological support at $1600, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave started in June 2022. Currently buyers attempt to halt declines around local support at $1550, which is marked with previous price reactions. However, should break lower occur. sell-off may deepen towards recent lows at $1460.

GBPUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1650 – 1.1420. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2285.

EURJPY

The EURJPY pair failed to surpass 145.25 barrier, to force it to postpone the bullish attack and form correctional bearish rebound to touch the additional support at 144.

We expect to form mixed sideways trades between the mentioned levels, to recommend neutrality and monitoring the price behavior until surpassing one of these levels to manage to detect the next trend, noting that breaking the support will activate the correctional bearish track that might target 143.25 and 142.60 levels.

EURUSD

ECB's Holzmann calls for 50 BPS hikes at the next 4 meetings. In addition he would like the PEPP program to be included in the balance sheet reduction, whose maturing instruments are reinvested for the time being. In his opinion, PEPP should be "pulled" into QT in autumn. These comments are very hawkish, however Holzmann belongs to the extreme group of "ultrahawks" at the ECB.

EURUSD tried to rebound slightly after Holzmann's comments.

Dow Jones

Volatility in the US stock market increased again, reaching its peak in trading on Friday against the background of the rhetoric of a number of experts regarding possible actions by the US Federal Reserve at a meeting on March 22. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, said that the regulator is ready for a sharper increase in the cost of borrowing than previously planned. The official's words led to a change in the balance of opinion in futures on the expected interest rate: the probability of an increase in value by 50 basis points is now estimated at 28.4% after 25% at the end of last week.

In turn, the bond market on Friday updated all-time highs: the yield on 10-year Treasuries exceeded 4% for the first time since November last year, but then a correction followed and now the figure is held at 3.944%, which contributed to the positive dynamics in the stock market. Today, auctions are scheduled for the placement of 3- and 6-month treasury bills, which may also have an impact on the stock index quotes.

On the daily chart, the index quotes continue their corrective dynamics, being in the middle of the local downward channel, and the technical indicators are ready for a reversal and have almost given a new buy signal.

Support levels: 33000, 32000 | Resistance levels: 33700, 34600

USDCAD

The USDCAD pair fluctuates around 1.3600 level, noticing that the price continues to record lower highs, while stochastic shows new negative overlapping signal now.

Therefore, we believe that the chances valid to resume the expected bearish bias on the intraday basis, which its targets begin by breaking 1.3570 to confirm rallying towards 1.3500, reminding you that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on the price stability below 1.3630 and 1.3680 levels.

Gold

Gold price retested the breached neckline of the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern and keeps its stability above it, to start providing positive trades in attempt to move away from this level that represents key support at 1843.70, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid and active for the upcoming period, which targets testing 1878.80 mainly.

Stochastic shows clear positive signals now, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price, to get positive motives that we are waiting to assist to push the price to achieve the waited rise. On the other hand, we should note that breaking 1843.70 followed by 1828.70 levels will stop the expected bullish trend and push the price to return to the correctional bearish track again.

Gold

US indices finished yesterday's trading significantly lower following a hawkish testimony from Fed Chair Powell. Powell hinted that Fed is ready to accelerate rate hikes if situation requires it
Some banks and institutions are now seeing chance of Fed hiking rates to 6% and holding them there for a longer period of time
2y-10y and 2y-30y yield curves are the most inverted in over 4 decades with both spreads exceeding -100 bps
S&P 500 dropped 1.53%, Dow Jones moved 1.72% lower and Nasdaq declined 1.25%. Small-cap Russell 2000 traded 1.11% lower
Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly lower today. S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.8%, Kospi plunged 1.3%, Nifty 50 dipped 0.5% and indices from China traded 0.3-2.3% lower. Nikkei was outperformer and managed to finished 0.5% higher
DAX futures point to a slightly lower opening of the European cash session today
RBA Governor Lowe said that rate hike cycle may be paused at the next meeting if incoming data warrants it
OPEC Secretary General Al Ghais said that Russian oil production remains resilient
According to poll conducted by Reuters, majority of economists surveyed expect Bank of Japan to end yield curve control this year
According to Washington Post, US is preparing to lift Covid-19 travel testing restrictions for arrivals from China
API report pointed to a 3.83 million barrel drop in US oil inventories (exp. -0.5 mb)
Cryptocurrencies are pulling back today. Bitcoin and Dogecoin drop around 0.5% each while Ethereum trades flat
Energy commodities trade higher - oil gains 0.4-0.5% while US natural gas prices climb 0.5%
Precious metals trade mixed - silver drops 0.1%, gold trades flat and platinum adds 0.5%
AUD and USD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and CHF lag the most

GOLD took a hit yesterday on hawkish Powell testimony and plunged around 2%. Precious metal erased most of the gains made over the previous week and is once again trading near the support zone ranging above $1,800 mark.

USDCAD

USDCAD is one of the pairs that will be on watch this afternoon. There is a number of events scheduled that could move the pair. ADP employment report for February at 1:15 pm GMT will be the first one of these and it will also be the final hint ahead of Friday's NFP report. ADP release will be followed by trade balance data for January from US and Canada at 1:15 pm GMT. However, the biggest USDCAD volatility today is expected around 3:00 pm GMT when Powell holds the second day of his semi-annual testimonies and Bank of Canada announces rate decision.

While speech from Powell and BoC rate decision are key events of the day, traders should keep in mind that there is also risk that they will turn out to be non-events. Powell will deliver the same speech as he did yesterday and the only thing that may differ are questions from lawmakers. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is expected to live up to its pledge of pausing rate hike cycle and leave rate unchanged at a meeting today.

Taking a look at USDCAD chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has been trading in an upward channel recently. The pair reached the highest level since early-November 2022 but the upward move slowed today as investors seem to be in wait-and-see mode ahead of USDCAD volatility events later in the day. As Powell is unlikely to make any major statements we have not heard during the first day of testimonies, surprise from Bank of Canada could be a massive volatility trigger. However, BoC has been quite clear about a plan to pause rate hike and failing to do so could have a negative impact on its credibility. Not to mention that situation in the Canadian economy did not change too much from the previous meeting.

US500

Wall Street indices took a hit yesterday after Powell struck a hawkish note during semi-annual hearings before the Senate Banking Committee. Fed Chair hinted that the pace of rate hikes may accelerate back to 50 basis points if economic developments warrant it. Yields and US dollar caught a bid while S&P 500 plunged 1.53% and moved below the 4,000 pts mark. However, an attempt to climb back above this hurdle can be spotted on the S&P 500 futures market today (US500).

Fed Chair Powell is set to appear on Capitol Hill today for the second day of hearings but as text of the speech will remain unchanged from yesterday, this may not be as big of a volatility event as yesterday. However, traders will be offered ADP employment report for February 2023 today at 1:15 pm GMT and it will be a final hint ahead of Friday's NFP report for February. Market expects ADP report to show a jobs gain of 200k, down from +106k signaled by API for January but also significantly below +517k shown by NFP report for January. A point to note is that US CPI report for February will be released on Tuesday next week and those 2 pieces of data (jobs report and inflation data) are likely to be key for the upcoming FOMC decision (March 22, 2023). Currently money markets price in around 40 basis points of tightening for the meeting and strong jobs report compared with still-high inflation could see those move even closer to 50 basis points.

Taking a look at S&P 500 futures chart (US500) at the H1 interval, we can see that the index took a big hit yesterday following Powell's hearings at Congress. Drop was halted at the 3,985 pts short-term support zone and an attempt to launch a recovery move can be spotted today. Index made an attempt at breaking above the 4,000 pts resistance zone, marked with previous price reactions as well as 200-hour moving average (purple line), but bulls were unable to break above. While the first attempt failed, index remains nearby and another attempt cannot be ruled out, especially if ADP data comes in softer than expected.

USDCHF -Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9600 – 0.9819. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9287.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair fluctuates around 1.0840 level since yesterday, and continues to move within the correctional bearish channel, waiting to resume the bearish bias that its next main target located at 1.1625, supported by stochastic loss to the positive momentum clearly.

By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming double top pattern that hast negative targets that surpass the above mentioned level to reach 1.1370 areas, to suggest the domination of the bearish trend on the longer term basis. Therefore, we are waiting for more decline in the upcoming sessions, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, reminding you that it is important to hold below 1.1940 to achieve the waited targets.