USDTRY - Turkish authorities intend to prevent currency fluctuations in the last week of the year

Last week, the main financial regulator of the Republic of Turkey sent out notices to commercial banks asking them to refrain from buying large amounts of US currency for their corporate clients so as not to provoke an increase in the USDTRY pair before the new year. Since the beginning of autumn, the agency has already artificially limited foreign exchange operations several times, focusing on the priorities set by the country's leadership, which believes that only loose monetary policy can lead to economic growth and record inflation is only a temporary problem that will be resolved along with the macroeconomic recovery indicators.

Meanwhile, Turkey is still pursuing its attempts to take a central place in the energy agenda of the Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea, and the Middle East and reduce its dependence on the supply of resources from outside. Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of a new gas field in the Black Sea, whose reserves are estimated at 58.0B cubic meters, and the total cost is 1.0T dollars. The total gas volume in Turkish territorial waters has risen to 710.0B cubic meters.

On the four-hour chart, the quotes of the USDTRY pair are moving within the next wave of the global side corridor. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable buy signal.

Support levels: 18.68, 18.62 | Resistance levels: 18.74, 18.785

CAC 40 - Bond growth is the main factor in the correction of index quotes

Thus, the popular 10-year notes are traded at a rate of 3.046%, which exceeds the October year's high of 2.998%, while the conservative 20-year notes are traded at 3.317% while yielding the peak value of 3.420%. The global 30-year bonds' yield is at 3.219% compared to 3.290% in October. Although the values have not yet reached highs, the situation in the global economy and the gradual approach of a recession will most likely support their positions further, provoking a decrease in investment demand for high-risk shares of companies.

In the meantime, the country's economy remains under pressure due to mass actions of civil servants demanding higher wages: despite an agreement between the authorities and the leadership of the French National Railway, 40% to 50% of high-speed trains were canceled on Christmas Day, and medical workers institutions intend to hold demonstrations until January 2, demanding a 50% increase in the cost of admission.

On the daily chart, CAC 40 quotes continue to trade within the global Expanding formation pattern and are currently developing a new wave of decline. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a new sell signal.

Support levels: 6370, 6170 | Resistance levels: 6580, 6810

EURJPY faces strong negative pressures

The EURJPY pair surrendered to the negative pressures represented by the moving average 55 consolidation near 142.40 resistance in addition to stochastic exit from the overbought areas, to provide chances to get the negative momentum and notice its crawl towards 140.95, to record the first waited negative target.

We expect to face more negative pressures, to form new negative attack and press on 140.25 level, while breaking it will extend trades negatively towards 139.80 followed by reaching the next main target at 138.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 141.70 and 140.25.

USDJPY Resumes the Main Bearish Track

The USDJPY pair faced strong negative pressures in the previous sessions to return to the main bearish channel, and begins today with additional decline to break 130 barrier and open the way to continue the bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, making the bearish trend dominant in the upcoming sessions, and we expect to target 128.90 followed by 127.85 levels as next main stations.

The EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 130.55 and holding above it, as breaching this level might push the price to test 132.35 areas initially before any new negative attempt.

The expected trading range for today is between 128.60 support and 130.50 resistance

BTCUSD - Uncertainty remains in the crypto market

The BTCUSD pair started the first week of the new year with a moderate attempt at growth and reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands around 16800. Market activity remains subdued due to the loss of investor confidence in digital assets after the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.

Currently, experts are trying to predict the dynamics of "digital gold" in the coming year, but there is no consensus on this issue: according to preliminary estimates, the value of BTC can rise to 250,0K dollars per coin or fall to 10,0K. Nevertheless, most experts are inclined to believe that serious price jumps should not be expected, and the overall situation of the sector will remain rather negative. Pressure on it will continue to be exerted by the course of tightening monetary policy taken by the world's leading central banks, aiming to significantly reduce inflation, and the growth of activity of regulators seeking to limit the activities of crypto companies, thus ensuring greater protection of investors' capital. The main hopes for significant growth are associated with 2024, when a reversal of the policy of the US Fed is expected and the beginning of a significant reduction in interest rates, as well as another halving of BTC, which traditionally has a positive effect on the price of the first cryptocurrency.

As for the mid−term outlook, the BTCUSD pair is likely to continue trading within the sideways range of 17500 − 16250 (Murray levels [6/8]-[5/8]). Now the price is testing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands 16800, when consolidated above which it will be able to rise to 17500 (Murray level [6/8]) and 19100 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The key for the "bears" is the level of 16250 (Murray [5/8], the lower line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakdown of which will increase the prospects for the downward movement of the trading instrument to the area of 15700 (the area of November lows) and 15000 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 16800, 17500, 19100 | Support levels: 16250, 15700, 15000

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil price approached our waited target at 81.60 but it bounced downwards strongly to reach the key support 78.93, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as continuing the negative pressure and breaking this level will stop the correctional bullish trend and push the price to suffer new losses on the intraday basis, while consolidating above it will lead the price to test 81.60 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 78.60 support and 82.00 resistance.

GBPJPY Under the Negative Pressure

The GBPJPY pair ended yesterday by touching 155.35 level, to approach the previously waited target followed by bouncing temporarily towards 157, noting that the bearish track will remain valid depending on 158.70 level forming additional barrier, to expect gathering the additional negative momentum by reaching 155 level followed by attempting to press on the historical support at 154.55.

Any attempt to rally above the mentioned barrier might lead to postpone the negative attack and start the correctional bullish track again, to target 160 as a first correctional station. The expected trading range for today is between 157.6 and 154.6.

EURJPY Takes Breath

The EURJPY pair started to form intraday sideways trades by consolidating near 138.2 level, attempting to take a breath after suffering additional losses yesterday and touching 137.40 target.

We remind you that forming continuous barrier at 138.8 and getting negative momentum by the major indicators will reinforce the domination of the bearish bias for the upcoming period, to keep waiting to resume the negative attack and attempt to reach 136.55 that forms the next target for the negative trades.

The expected trading range for today is between 138.80 and 137.

NZDUSD - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the development of the wave (C) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed, and a local correction is developing as the second wave ii of 1 of (C), within which the wave (c) of ii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6383.

Gold Price Gathers Positive Momentum

Gold price continues to rise, organized inside new bullish channel that appears on the chart, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum gradually, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that its next target located at 1900. Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid and active unless breaking 1820.50 and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.

Crude Oil Price Hits the Extended Target

Crude oil price succeeded to achieve our main waited target at 73.30 and fluctuates near it, and we believe that the way is open to achieve more decline in the upcoming sessions, to head towards visiting the recently recorded low at 70.30 as a next main target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain suggested on the intraday and short term basis, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, noting that breaching 74.20 will push the price to achieve intraday gains that target testing 75.63 before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 71.50 support and 75 resistance.