Date : 9th December 2022.

Market Update – December 9 – Stocks Recover, USD Weaker, PPI Data Ahead.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index is down at 104.55 for a 3rd day in a row. Wall Street rebounded with the US500 +0.75% (3963) gain breaking a string of five straight losses. Treasury yields rose slightly following the deceleration in unit labour costs & rise in jobless claims. However, the 2/10yr yields are still shouting Recession – the curve remains -83bps. China confirms weak activity once again (Nov. CPI -0.2% m/m from 0.1% m/m). UK regulators fine Santander £107mn for anti-money laundering failures
*The US is set to levy fresh sanctions against Russia and China.
*EUR – retests 1.0600 amid USD weakness and trades at 1.0575 now.
*JPY – slight pull back over 136.00, to 136.30 from 135.80 lows.
*GBP – holds over 1.2200, and trades at 1.2260. Monday’s high touched 1.2345. The UK Chancellor Hunt is to announce plans to relax regulation for UK’s financial services sector, rolling back 2008 rules.
*Stocks – Dip buying and short covering helped the rally and sentiment along with signs China is moving further to ease covid restrictions. JPN225 surged 1.2% and Hang Seng index rose by 1.6% as China’s Premier stated that the shift in COVID policy would allow the economy to pick up pace. The US100 climbed 1.13% and the US30 was up 0.55%, while the rise in jobless claims yesterday (230k) helped limit the selloff, though rates were still cheaper at the end of the session.
*The US Federal Trade Commission blocks the biggest ever gaming industry deal. FTC sued Microsoft Corp MSFT +1.24% to block its planned $75 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc ATVI -1.54%

*USOil – holds at 1-year lows, below $72.00 at $71.70. USOil found some slight support (a rally to $75.00) after news that the Keystone pipeline in the US was shut down after more than 14,000 barrels of crude oil spilled into a creek in Kansas.
*Gold – extends to $1795 – 4th bullish day away from 200-day SMA.

Today – Caution prevails ahead of today’s PPI and consumer sentiment data, and next week’s CPI, and then the FOMC on Wednesday.

The recent weakening of the Canadian Dollar has been distorted by the decline in world crude oil prices. Currently, USDCAD is trading at 1.3655, strengthening by 1.5% this week. The price is above the 26-day exponential moving average and is trying to catch up to the price on the resistance’s right shoulder at 1.3807. The RSI is above the 50 level, the MACD histogram is just shy of crossing the zero line. On the downside, the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern will still function as minor support at 1.3502.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.41%). MAs aligned  lower indicating the continuation of the downtrend, MACD lines are negatively configured, RSI 31 but flat, H1 ATR 0.00113, Daily ATR 0.00872.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th December 2022.

Market Update – December 13 – Markets Await US CPI.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index holds under 105.00, currently at 104.80 as the USD consolidates ahead of today’s CPI data. US Stocks rallied on Monday (Dow the strongest +1.58%). Yields rallied over 1.23% with the  10yr closing at and holds today at 3.611%.  Asian markets mixed & European FUTS are also lower as Chinese Covid infections continue to rise. Former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried has been in the Bahamas at the “behest of U.S. prosecutors” a day before he was due to testify to Congress. Reuters also reported that Binance is under investigation for possible money laundering and criminal sanctions violations by DOJ, with possible proceedings against executives including CEO Zhao.
*EUR – rotates over 1.0500 at 1.0560 now, ahead of German ZEW data later and ECB on Thursday.
*JPY – rallied from 136.50 lows over 137.00 and trades at 137.70 today.
*GBP – Sterling rallied again to test 1.2300, consistently yesterday, but trades at 1.2285 following mixed UK jobs data and as multiple strikes hit the UK.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied yesterday (1.26-1.58%) – US500 +56.18 (+1.43%) 3990, Big movers included MRNA -6.89%, TSLA -6.27%, MSFT +2.89%. FUTS trades at 3997 now.

*USOil – SRallied over 6% from 12-month+ lows at $70.05 again on Monday to trade at $74.30 now on supply concerns.
*Gold – Declined to $1780 again, from key support at $1788.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue, but talk of “rapid rollout of global crypto standards” led by FSB keeps trades over 17k at 17.1k.

Today – UK Unemployment, German ZEW, US CPI, Japanese Tankan.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.53%) rallied from lows on Monday at 0.6728 to test 0.6775 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising and testing 0 line. RSI 58.10 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00129, Daily ATR 0.00845.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th December 2022.

Market Update – December 15 – FED: Inflation Remains Public Enemy No. 1.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The FED, as expected,  announced a 50 bp increase in the federal funds rate  to place it in a target range of 4.25%-4.50% (the highest level in 15 years – since 2007). Powell pointed out that “We have more work to do” and that “there is a long way to go” expecting “continued increases”. The first is expected to be 25bp in February, which “will depend on incoming data” and from there the pace will be set taking into account “the cumulative tightening of monetary policy”. 17 of 19 members expect the terminal rate to be over 5.1% during 2023, and “there are no rate cuts in the projections for 2023” and that there will not be until the Fed “has full confidence that inflation is continually falling to the target” , for which it will have to“maintain restrictive rates for a sustained period of time”.

The higher for longer mantra continues – its not the rate of increase but how long it remains elevated. Sounded Hawkish but markets not convinced.

*The USD Index gyrated on the FED announcement moving north of 104.00 but dipped to new 6-mth lows at 103.33 before recovering to 103.85 now. US Stocks rallied on open again but fell post FED and by close were lower (-0.42-0.76%). Yields held at lows too as Treasuries held on to Tuesday’s gains, 10yr closed at 3.503%. Commodities were mixed (Gold under $1800 but USOil holds over $76.50,  from $77.50). Asian stocks are mostly lower in the aftermath of the FOMC and disappointing Chinese activity data. 
*EUR – rotates 50 bps higher over 1.0600 at 1.0650 now, ahead of ECB later today.
*JPY – sank to 134.50 lows, ahead of the FED, spiked to 136.00 then dipped to 134.80 as Powell spoke and is back to 135.80 now. – Weak JPY (Trade) & Chinese (Ind. Production & Retail Sales) data and strong AUD jobs numbers.
*GBP – Sterling rotated a whole big number from 1.2445 to 1.2345 and trades at 1.2388 ahead of an expected 50 bp rate hike from the BoE today.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied but then closed lower – US500 -24.33 (-0.61%) 3995, and slips below 4000 again. Big movers included TSLA -2.58%, COIN -3.88%, AMD -3.80%. FUTS trades at 4012 now.

*USOil – Rallied to $77.54, post FED having touched $75.50 following huge inventory gains of 10.2 million barrels, trades at the key $76.50 now.
*Gold – Spiked down to $1795, rallied to $1815 and trades at $1788 now, unable to hold the  $1800 handle.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue from Binance & SBF but the weaker USD saw a peak over $18.3k, before a crash to $17.7k now. – FTX bankruptcy lawyers say they -“do not trust” – Bahamas government.

Today – US Weekly Claims, Retail Sales & Industrial Production, BoE, ECB, Norges Bank, SNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, European Council Meeting, Press Conferences with ECB’s Lagarde, Norges Bank’s Bache & SNB’s Jordan.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.59%) fell from highs over 0.6885 yesterday to test 0.6825 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 39.22 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00183, Daily ATR 0.00935.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th December 2022.

Market Update – December 19 – Covid outweighs Reopening.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index is hovering around 104.00 bottom, despite the renewed rise in the Treasury yield. Global stock markets made a wobbly start to the final full trading week of 2022, with the prospect of interest rates rising further next year taking the edge off festive cheer, and with concerns over China Covid Outbreak. Asian yields dipped, while US Yields also held at lows as Treasuries continued to rise, 10yr is up 3.1 bp at 3.51%. Asian stocks have remained under pressure, with concern over China’s Covid count also weighing.
*China officially reported its first coronavirus-related deaths since the unwinding of some of the strictest pandemic control measures earlier this month.

Chinese authorities have warned of three successive waves of Covid infections over the coming months, as cases continue to surge after the lifting of restrictions earlier this month. Only 42.3% for people aged 80 and above got the booster.

*EUR – up at 1.0640 now & GBP stuck at 1.2160-1.22 area.
*JPY – extends lower to 135.80, with Yen be the biggest gainer of the day as speculation building that the Bank of Japan, which meets on Monday and Tuesday, is eying a shift in its ultra-dovish stance in future.
*Elon Musk asked Twitter users to vote Sunday on whether he should step down as head of the social-media platform and pledged to abide by the results. Plus Twitter said it would  no longer allow “free promotion of certain social media platforms” like Meta Platforms Inc’s META.O Facebook and Instagram, Mastodon etc. on its sites.
*Stocks – The JPN225 declined more than -1%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -0.9% and -1.5% respectively. US500 dropped 2% last week (-20% for the year) while today US & European indixes are managing slight gains, US500 rose 0.1%.

*USOil – drifts to $74.65
*Gold – was steady at $1,793
*BTC – remained trading below $17,000.

Today – There is a heavy calendar ahead as releases are condensed ahead of Christmas on Sunday. Housing reports will highlight as that has been one of the sectors most impacted by the Fed’s tightening. China is expected to deliver a key interest rate decision on Tuesday morning, after keeping the rate steady for three straight months. Japan as well.

Today – Germany Dec .Ifo survey, Eurozone Q3 labour market!

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.59%). MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 37 & falling, H1 ATR 0.33, Daily ATR 1.93.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st December 2022.

Market Update – December 21.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The USD Index stuck at 103.50 bottom. Stocks pick up overnight, after were pummeled Tuesday by the BoJ’s surprise hawkish tweak in its yield curve control. Yields: JGB 2-year rose above zero for the first time since 2015. 10-year Treasury yield cheapened 11 bps to hit 3.706%. The curve inversion unwound another 10 bps on the day to -57.9 bps and compares to the -84 bps two weeks ago.
*EUR -jumps 20 pips at the EU open higher to 1.0630. German GfK consumer confidence improved to -37.8, a tad better than anticipated. All in all a number that ties in with expectations for a shallow and short lived recession, rather than a protracted slowdown.
*JPY – trimmed -4% to 130.55. – Higher yields at home could make it more attractive for Japanese investors to repatriate some funds.

*Stocks – Nikkei lost a further -0.7% after the BoJ’s curve ball yesterday. The ASX bounced 1.3%, and China bourses are also higher – as are stock futures across Europe and the US. The NASDAQ flat at 33,230, with the S&P 500 at 3,868, & the Dow up by 0.25%. #TSLA collapse continues -8% yesterday.
*USOil – flat at $75, with  Brent trading at $80.01 per barrel.
*Gold – higher held at $1,815.

Today – Canadian Inflation & US Consumer Confidence. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to travel to Washington to meet President Joe Biden.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.67%). Turned below 20-DMA. Intraday MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 40 & rising indicating a possible recovery or steadiness, H1 ATR 0.00151, Daily ATR 0.0084.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd January 2022.

Market Update – January 3 – JPY & Gold add to gains.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Markets are back to full-time today to kick-start 2023 with a key week topped by NFP data on Friday and undermined by the ongoing rise in Covid cases and deaths in China.  Japan and New Zealand remain closed today, but in Asia the ASX (-1.3%) is the laggard whilst Chinese bourses are on a firmer footing (Shanghai Comp +0.8%, Hang Seng +2.1%), despite weaker manufacturing PMI data from Caixin (49.0 vs 49.4).  In FX markets JPY is the notable gainer across the majors (USDJPY -0.77% @ 129.50 and 6-mth lows earlier) and the USD is receiving a bid as European markets get into full swing (EURUSD at 1.0570 from 1.0675).

*The USD Index remains capped by 103.50 today as the USD softens in early new year trading.
*EUR – rotates at 1.0570 now, having spiked to 1.0710 on Monday but unable to hold this key round number.
*JPY – moved lower again as the pivot from the BOJ becomes more baked-in to market thinking, the key 130.00 was breached earlier for the first time since June 2022.
*GBP – Sterling holds significantly over 1.2000 at 1.2070 in the first London trades of the year.
*Stocks – European and UK FUTS are higher and the US500.F trades at 3872 now, up from the 2022 close for the cash market at 3839.50.
*USOil – Rallied to breach and hold $80.00 yesterday and trades at $80.70 now.
*Gold – Has taken another leg higher today on USD weakness, continued CB rate hikes and subdued economic outlook. Breached $1830 in early trades and is testing the next resistance at $1850 now.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue – the biggest coin trades at $16.7k today.

Today – German CPIs, Turkish CPI, UK & US final MFG PMI, US Construction Spending.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.79%) into fourth consecutive day lower from 143.00 thighs last week to 138.30 today. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative and falling. RSI 24.10 OS and still falling, H1 ATR 0.350, Daily ATR 1.823.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update – January 5 – FOMC: Inflation still Public Enemy No. 1.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The FOMC minutes continued to show inflation was the overriding concern. Participants generally noted that upside risks to the inflation outlook “remained a key factor” for policy. It was repeated that a restrictive stance would have to be maintained for a sustained period until inflation was “clearly” on a path toward 2%. US Data yesterday showed ISM Manufacturing PMI’s missing at 48.4, but Jobs Openings remaining very strong beating expectations at 10.46m. Kashkari called for 5.4% terminal rate.

*The USD Index held 104.00 yesterday as the USD steadied post FOMC mins. 104.20 now.
*EUR – back to test 1.0600. Germany November trade balance beats €10.8 billion vs €7.5 billion.
*JPY – rallied from new 7-mth lows under 130.00 yesterday to 132.50 now
*GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.2080 before sinking back to key 1.2000 today.
*Stocks – The US markets closed up (+0.40-0.76%). US500 -28.03 (0.75%) at 3853. TSLA +5.12%, BABA +13%, MSFT -4.37%.

*USOil – Tanked –9% Monday, Tuesday ($72.75 lows) and has recovered 1.1% today to trade at $73.50 ahead of inventories later
*Gold – Breached $1850 in early trades, rallied to $1860 and trades at $1850now.
*BTC – Sentiment woes continue – the biggest coin trades at $16.8k today. FTX’s former top lawyer aided US authorities in Bankman-Fried case.

Today – EZ Construction PMI, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, EZ PPI, US Challenger Layoffs, Canadian Trade Balance, US Claims, US EIA Inventories, speeches from Fed’s Bostic and Bullard.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.45%). Declined from 1.5660 pivot yesterday to test 1.5400, before recovering and rallying to test 1.5600 today.  MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising. RSI 52.00 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.00306, Daily ATR 0.01388.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th January 2022.

Market Update – January 9 – USD Index falls 9% from peaks.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Treasury and Wall Street soared on the heels of the NFP data where the net effect is a tempering in Fed rate hike expectations. The markets are cheering the cooling in wage growth and a softer but still resilient labor market. The erosion in the service sector is a bit ominous but adds to the belief that the FOMC will soften its stance with a 25-50 bp hike on February 1 following the 50 bp tightening in December.

The jump in the workforce and easing wage growth & further signs of an economy slowing down with services contracting for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December = US economy recession, & Fed on its hiking path but no need to do too much!

*The USD Index falls 9% from peaks. It drifted to 103.23 from 105.40 on Friday after the NFP. Fed funds futures are suggesting a 4.958% terminal rate in June.
*China’s re-opening of its borders – could add further pressure on USD.
*EUR – spiked to nearly 1.0700.
*JPY – slightly higher today at 132.16 from 131.20 bottom.
*GBP – gaining 0.42% to 1.2166, after spiking 1.5% on Friday.
*Stocks – The US markets surged. US500 +2.28% and USA100 +2.56%. APPL +3.68%, AMZN +3.56%, MSFT +1.18%. 
*Treasury yields dove, led by the short end as the market priced out the more hawkish Fed bets. The 2-year rate plunged 20 bps to a low of 4.243%.

*USOil – rose after Chinese announcement. Today trades at $75.30.
*Gold – reversed 60% from 2022 downleg. Breached $1880.
*BTC – rise to 17166.23.

Today – Fed’s Bostic and BOE’s Pill speak, Japan’s PM Kishida meets with France’s President Macron, Eurozone unemployment. Earnings season kicks off this week with the major US banks.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.78%). Trade-and-China sensitive AUD up to 0.6945 today.  MAs flattened but MACD histogram & signal line remain positive and rising. RSI 67 but turns slightly lower, H1 ATR 0.00166, Daily ATR 0.0096.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th January 2022.

Market Update – January 11 – Dollar stands still ahead of Thursday’s CPI.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Treasuries were more unidirectional while Yields have crept higher led by the long end. The curve has bear steepened to -65.6 bps from -68 bps Monday and -74 bps before Friday’s data. Wall Street was very choppy, trading either side of unchanged, after a positive opening. Chair Powell did not comment on policy matters in his Riksbank remarks. But Governor Bowman echoed hawkish comments from others of late. Gains had been shed as the market is pushed and pulled by crosscurrents of Fed policy dynamics, recession uncertainties, and upcoming earnings reports. Stock markets moved higher in Japan and Australia, the latter helped by stronger than expected retail sales numbers, which helped to balance the uptick in inflation that sparked fresh rate hike bets.

*The USDIndex bounced to 103.35 from a low of 103.03, adding to some of the volatility in stocks.
*EUR – ranging between 1.0700 – 1.0760.
*JPY – neutral, hovering around 132.30
*GBP – holds Friday’s gains. Range at 1.2110 – 1.2210.
*Stocks – The US100, US30 and US500 are fractionally higher with +1.01%, +0.56% and +0.7% respectively. US100 remains stuck in the 10800-11400 range. Note the fact we are getting tighter and tighter inside the triangle like formation. The 100-day SMA and the negative trend line are the big resistance levels to watch, while 10800 is the “must hold” level.

*USOil – fell by -0.48% to $74.66 per barrel and down from the $80.26 to end 2022.
*Gold – up at $1884.60.

Today – Crude Oil Inventories & New Zealand Building Permits.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+1.46%). Spiked to R2: 23.93. MAs slightly higher, MACD histogram & signal line are close to zero. RSI 63 but flattened, H1 ATR 0.094, Daily ATR 0.589.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th January 2022.

Market Update – January 13 – CPI as advertised, USD sank!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The December CPI report came in as advertised, indeed even better than expected for the headline. Treasuries saw strong gains, while there were more moderate gains on Wall Street. Overall inflation continues to come down & Fed Harker & Bullard comments boosted expectations the FOMC will further downshift rate hikes with a 25 bp increase seen in February. Yields dropped measurably. Futures markets have priced in 25 bp and several rate cuts this year.

*The USDIndex slumped to 101.79 yesterday. Today eased at 102.00.
*EUR – held above 1.0800.
*JPY – rallies to 7-month high as JGB yields also remain on bid on the anticipation of a potential policy shift. Nikkei down by 1.3%. USDJPY down by 2.7% last night.
*Reuters: A newspaper report flagging the possibility of more flexibility has redoubled bets on a coming shift out of ultra-easy policy that seeks to pin yields near zero.
*GBP – settled at 1.2200. UK GDP rose 0.1% in November. Figures showed that in the three months to the end of November, the economy shrank by 0.3%. If two consecutive quarters of contraction are confirmed then that could count as a recession.

*Stocks – Wall Street rallied too, with the US30 and US100 up 0.64%, and the US500 0.34% firmer. Strength in energy supported.
*USOil – held above $78.
*Gold – retests $1900.
*BTC surged 5% to break above $19,000.

Today – University of Michigan sentiment. Earnings: Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.93%). Plummets to 81.95, from 84.36 high yesterday. Fast MAs aligned lower & RSI at 17, MACD histogram & signal lines extended lower. H1 ATR 0.203, Daily ATR 1.157.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th January 2023.

Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds at 7-mth lows, Mixed data from China & UK.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese GDP for 2022 at 3.0% missed expectations (5.5%) significantly and represented the slowest growth for the world’s second largest economy since 1976 and the end of the austerity of Mao Zedong. Q4 GDP beat expectations at 2.9% vs 1.8% but was still very weak. Retail Sales  & Unemployment also beat at -1.8% vs. -9.5% and 5.5% vs. 5.8%, respectively. Japanese 10-yr yields still trade over the 0.50% above the BOJ ceiling ahead of BOJ tomorrow. The UK Jobs market remains v tight (Unemployment 3.7%) – Earnings up (6.4% vs 6.1%) but still way short of Inflation. (CPI & Retails Sales data tomorrow). German HICP inflation confirmed & unchanged at 9.6%.

*The USD Index recovered from under 102.00 at 101.70, to 102.15 now.
*EUR – holds over 1.0800. The pair touched 1.0875 on Monday (9-mth highs) and trades back to 1.0820 now.
*JPY – dipped again touching 127.20 lows, but is now back over 128.00 and has tested 128.80 today.
*GBP – Sterling tested 1.2290, slipped back to 1.2160 lows and has recovered 1.2200 following the UK data.
*Stocks – The US markets closed higher on Friday (+0.33-0.71%), following generally good Banking Earnings, tempered by cautious outlooks and job losses. US500 FUTS trade at 4002.
*USOil – rallied again to test $80.00 lbut has since slipped to $79.00 following the Chinese data. 
*Gold – the Bid remains strong as $1900 holds, and $1930 was tested yesterday, the precious metal is back to $1910 now.
*BTC – Weak USD helps to lift prices over $20k and holds over $21k today.

Today – Canadian CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Centeno & Chinese Vice Premier Liu. Earnings – Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley & United Airlines.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.53%). Bounced from a test of 137.50 zone on Friday and adds to gains today at 139.20 but is down from 149.00 highs in December. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 66.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.230, Daily ATR 1.856.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th January 2023.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks sink, USD rises after weak data & JPY bounces back.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Weak data (Retail Sales & PPI) from the US added to recession worries – More Hawkish comments from a raft of FED speakers talking 5.25-5.5% terminal rates added to a safe haven bid for the USD, Stock markets to collapse (-1.24% to -1.81%) under key technical levels and speculators to back the YEN and push the BOJ once more. Bonds rallied, the US 10-yr yield dropped to 3.75%. Asia markets are lower and rangebeound & European FUTS are also mixed. NZD unmoved from surprise the PM Ardern will step down in Febrary ahead of October elections.

*The USD Index hit a new 7-mth low at 101.25, before the data and a recovery of the  102.00  handle.   
*EUR – holds at 1.0800 now, following a new  8-mth high over 1.0870.
*JPY – Rip roaring day from 131.60 highs yesterday completely reversed and back to test 128.00 now.
*GBP – Sterling has breached 1.2400, following the US data and currently trades at 1.2335.
*Stocks – The US markets were weak into close (-1.24% to +1.81%). US500 -1.56% to 3928 and below 200 EMA and testing the 50MA. PNC -6.04%, UAL -4.57%,  US500 FUTS trade at 3937.

*USOil – rallied again to test $82.50 before the US economic data and inventories took it lower to $79.00 where it holds now.
*Gold – has tested $1900 again today from highs of $1922 yesterday, trades at $1912 now. 
*BTC – Continues to hold over $20k this week but has relinquished the $21k today to trade at $20.7k.

Today – Building Permits/Housing Starts, Weekly Claims, Norges Bank & CBRT Announcements, ECB Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Brainard & Collins, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel & Knot, Earnings – Procter & Gamble and Netflix.

Biggest FX Mover@ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.41%). Rejected & reversed the post BOJ rally to  92.00, tanking close to 400 pips to test 88.00 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling. RSI 22.87, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.239, Daily ATR 1.278.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.