GBPUSD - The pound took advantage of the weakness of the dollar

Today the dynamics in the GBP/USD pair can change against the backdrop of the publication of an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the data on the country's Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) coincided with forecasts, and the indicator added 0.2% after growing by 0.8% a quarter earlier, acting as a catalyst for a slowdown from 8.7% to 4.4% YoY. Today, traders are also following statistics on consumer lending, which recorded a decrease in September from 1.425B to 1.077B, with a forecast of 1.400B, while the number of borrowings approved by citizens increased from 63.77K to 74.34K.

Meanwhile, British investors are concerned that Prime Minister Liz Truss has shrugged off the concerns of the country's leading economists by refusing to consider canceling a project recently announced by the Treasury to reduce the fiscal burden on households and businesses. The official said the 60.0B pound household support measures are helping the economy out of the crisis, but analysts are worried about lifting restrictions on bonuses to the top management of banks, as well as reducing stamp duty on property purchases.

The trading instrument is trying to return to the previously abandoned downwards channel. Technical indicators maintain a decelerating sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator began to narrow slightly, and the AO oscillator's histogram formed a new upward bar.

Resistance levels: 1.1250, 1.154 | Support levels: 1.1, 1.069

USDJPY - US dollar holds near its record highs

The American currency continues its moderate growth during the Asian session, again testing the psychological level of 145 for a breakout. The US dollar is in high demand among investors in anticipation of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. It is predicted that by the end of the year the regulator will make at least one more large increase in the indicator, and the adjustment can immediately reach 1.25%. In turn, the Bank of Japan does not change its wait-and-see tactics, as it fears the return of the previous deflationary risks.

The published macroeconomic statistics from Japan put additional pressure on the yen. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in the third quarter showed a decrease from 9.0 points to 8.0 points, while analysts expected growth to 11.0 points, and the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 51points to 50.8 points with a forecast of 51.5 points.

US investors will be watching today for data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry and is calculated based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. The indicator is projected to decrease from 52.8 points to 52.2 points. In addition, during the day there will be a number of speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.

Resistance levels: 145, 146, 147, 148 | Support levels: 144, 142.54, 141.5, 140.78

Gold under the pressure of the "hawkish" policy of the world's leading central banks

Quotes of the XAUUSD pair are holding near the level of 1660, receiving moderate support from the corrective weakening of the US dollar at the end of last week, but the "bulls" still remained under pressure. In addition, gold is still reacting negatively to the rising yields of US government bonds.

It is likely that this week the precious metal will return to the downward plane, as the world's leading financial regulators continue their policy of tightening monetary conditions. On Tuesday, October 4, a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held, which may adjust the interest rate from 2.35% to 2.85%, and the next day, officials of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably increase the rate from 3.0% to 3.5%. At the end of the week, investors will be watching the rhetoric of the representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, hoping to hear plans for further tightening of monetary policy against the background of increased inflation to 10.0% in the EU.

It is worth noting the high interest in gold from British investors after the plan announced by the national Ministry of Finance to reduce the fiscal burden in the context of the energy crisis. Long positions in the asset contrast sharply with the "bearish" sentiment in the precious metals market, as XAU/USD quotes have lost 11% since the beginning of the year, which was facilitated by the "hawkish" policy of the US Federal Reserve. However, the precious metals' status as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation keeps high demand from retail investors.

Resistance levels: 1675, 1688.58, 1700, 1720 | Support levels: 1653.92, 1640, 1620, 1600

BTCUSD - Long-term market pressures persist

The BTCUSD pair has been trading in the main range 19800−18750for more than two weeks: last week, the quotes of "digital gold" actively tested its upper limit, but could not consolidate higher and resumed the decline.

In general, the instrument remains under the influence of long-term negative factors. The continued increase in interest rates by the US Fed, the constant expectation of tighter regulation of the cryptocurrency market in the world's leading economies, the growth of geopolitical risks and the high probability of a global economic recession make digital assets less attractive to institutional investors. Moreover, recently there has been a tendency to decrease the popularity of cryptocurrencies among ordinary market participants. So, according to the latest Bankrate survey conducted among American youth, no more than 30% of respondents were interested in cryptocurrencies this year, while in 2020 this figure reached 50%. Experts believe that then the interest was primarily related to the rise in prices of digital assets and the possibility of quick earnings, the probability of which has sharply decreased in the current conditions.

Technically, the key for the "bears" remains the mark of 18750 (Murray [0/8]) at the lower border of the trading range, consolidation below which will allow the quotes to continue the downward movement to the levels of 17800 (June lows), 17187.5 (Murray [-2/8]), 16900 (Fibo extension 100.00). The most important for the "bulls" is the 19800 mark. If the price consolidates above it, the recovery of the positions of the trading instrument may begin in the area of 21093.75 (Murray [3/8]), 21875 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 19800, 21093.75, 21875 | Support levels: 18750, 17800, 17187.5, 16900

USDCHF - The pair is consolidating near 0.992

The US dollar shows mixed dynamics of trading during the Asian session, consolidating near local highs from September 28 and 0.9920, despite the fact that the macroeconomic background from the US remained rather weak, and data from Switzerland supported buyers of the franc.

Business activity index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in September showed a decline from 52.8 points to 50.9 points. It is worth noting that a similar index from S&P Global rose from 51.8 points to 52.0 points in September with analysts' neutral forecasts. In turn, data from Switzerland pointed to a slowdown in inflation. In September, the Consumer Price Index showed a decrease of 0.2% after rising by 0.3% last month. Finally, the Business Activity Index from SVME recorded a moderate increase from 56.4 points to 57.1 points with analysts' neutral forecasts.

Resistance levels: 0.9948, 1, 1.005, 1.01 | Support levels: 0.9868, 0.9807, 0.9762, 0.97

Crude Oil - Upward correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

According to sources within the organization, during the meeting, a decision may be made to reduce the production of "black gold" by 1 million barrels to stabilize prices. Larger production adjustments than previously expected will be an indicator of producers' concern about the rapid slowdown in the global economy in the face of active tightening of monetary policy by leading central banks. A number of experts believe that a consistent increase in interest rates carries the risk of a contraction in the economy in the future. These fears led to the most rapid drop in oil prices since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, forcing OPEC+ to think about ways to stabilize the market. Any move by the cartel to raise prices could put additional pressure on Western consumers, who are under unprecedented pressure amid the energy crisis.

An additional factor contributing to the strengthening of the Brent Crude Oil rate remains the disruption of energy supplies to Europe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that gas consumption in the countries of the region will decrease by 10% this year alone, outstripping the indicators of the largest economic crisis in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Of course, fuel shortages, as well as a complete restructuring of supply chains, will put pressure on oil prices for a long time. Against this background, one can assume that in the long term the quotes of the trading instrument will correct to the level of 95.50, in the area of which the further direction of quotes will be determined.

The long-term trend is downward, but at the moment a correction is developing with the target at 95.5. If the "bears" hold this level, the decline will continue to the area of 89. Otherwise, growth to 104 can be expected.

The midterm trend remains downtrend. Now the price is moving towards the key resistance at 92.77–91.92, after the test of which it is worth considering new short positions with a target at the September low of 83.50. If the resistance of 92.77–91.92 is broken upwards, then the trend will change to an upward one, and in this case, it is worth moving on to looking for long positions with the target of 101.27–100.42.

Resistance levels: 95.5, 104 | Support levels: 88, 83.5

AUDUSD - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) has completed and a downward correction has formed as wave (2), in which wave C of (2) has appeared. At the moment, the third wave (3) is being formed, in which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) was formed.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will rise to the area of 0.6912–0.7135. The level of 0.6362 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Crude Oil - Upward correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting

According to sources within the organization, during the meeting, a decision may be made to reduce the production of "black gold" by 1.0 million barrels to stabilize prices. Larger production adjustments than previously expected will be an indicator of producers' concern about the rapid slowdown in the global economy in the face of active tightening of monetary policy by leading central banks. A number of experts believe that a consistent increase in interest rates carries the risk of a contraction in the economy in the future. These fears led to the most rapid drop in oil prices since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, forcing OPEC+ to think about ways to stabilize the market. Any move by the cartel to raise prices could put additional pressure on Western consumers, who are under unprecedented pressure amid the energy crisis.

The long-term trend is downward, but at the moment a correction is developing with the target at 95.50. If the "bears" hold this level, the decline will continue to the area of 89.00. Otherwise, growth to 104.00 can be expected.

The midterm trend remains downtrend. Now the price is moving towards the key resistance at 92.77–91.92, after the test of which it is worth considering new short positions with a target at the September low of 83.50. If the resistance of 92.77–91.92 is broken upwards, then the trend will change to an upward one, and in this case, it is worth moving on to looking for long positions with the target of 101.27–100.42.

Resistance levels: 95.5, 104 | Support levels: 88, 83.5

XRPUSD - Technical Analysis

This week, cryptocurrency quotes are actively adding in value, heading above the key level for the "bulls" of 0.4883 (Murray [2/8]) with subsequent targets at 0.5219 (Fibo retracement 38.2%) and 0.5548 (the area of September highs). The key for the "bears" is the support level of 0.4395 (Fibo retracement 23.6%, Murray [1/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakdown of which will be a catalyst for the development of downward dynamics to the levels of 0.3906 (Murray [0/8]) and 0.3418 (Murray [-1/8]), however, at the moment this option price movements seem less likely.

Technical indicators point out the continuation of the short-term upward trend: the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic are reversing upwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone. 

Resistance levels: 0.4883, 0.5219, 0.5548 | Support levels: 0.4395, 0.3906, 0.3418

USDCHF - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, a downward correction has ended as the second wave of the higher level 2, and the formation of an ascending third wave 3 has also begun, in which wave (1) of 3 is developing. At the moment, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is being formed, within which wave iii of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the quotes of the USDCHF pair will continue to move towards the 1.0200–1.0300 area. The level of 0.9487 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

ADAUSD - Murray analysis

The ADAUSD pair continues to trade within the short-term downtrend and this week tested the 0.4150 mark (Murray [1/8]), but could not consolidate below it. If successful, the downward dynamics of the cryptocurrency will resume to the levels of 0.3906 (Murray [0/8]) and 0.3662 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 0.4394 (Murray [2/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, when overcoming which it will be possible to reverse the current trend and strengthen the positions of the digital asset to the levels of 0.4882 (Murray [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murray [5/8]).

The downtrend persists, as evidenced by the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the stabilization of the MACD histogram in the negative zone, however, the upward reversal of the Stochastic does not exclude the continuation of corrective growth, but its potential is seen to be limited.   

Resistance levels: 0.4394, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4150, 0.3906, 0.3662

Crude Oil - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, and the formation of downward correction ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the development of the upward third wave (3) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 103.83 – 115.12. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 76.07.