USDJPY - Bank of Japan started foreign exchange interventions

The Bank of Japan conducted the first foreign exchange intervention since 1998 to support the yen after the decision to keep interest rates at a very low level of –0.10%. Its value is unknown but judging by the movement on the stock exchange, it was a test operation to determine the “depth” of the market, but more serious steps may follow from the financial authorities, which will provoke new pressure on the USD/JPY pair. It is obvious that the key point for making a decision will be 145.00, upon reaching which the officials are likely to approve new interventions. It is quite logical that in the current situation, macroeconomic statistics faded into the background, but this morning, Service PMI in Japan was published, which in September rose to 51.9 points after three months of decline in a row.

The trading instrument is moving within the global uptrend, holding near the high of the year, around 145.9. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms bars well above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 144.55, 145.9 | Support levels: 142.30, 140.33

USDCHF - the "bulls" intend to break out the 0.985 level

During the morning trading, the price of the USDCHF pair came close to the resistance level of 0.9850. Buyers are probably preparing to break through this mark and continue to grow with a target at the highs of May-June 2022. The growth of quotations is due to two factors: the strengthening of the US currency due to the increase in the interest rate of the US Fed (last week the regulator adjusted the value by 75 basis points to 3.25%) and the weakening of the euro, which also affects the currencies of neighboring countries, including the Swiss franc.

The USDCHF pair is trading in a long-term uptrend. The growth target is to update the highs of May-June 2022 at 1.004, the breakout of which will allow the instrument to continue the upward trend with a target at 1.0120. In turn, holding the resistance level of 0.9850 will lead to a price correction in the area of 0.965 – 0.96.

The mid-term trend is upward. Last week, market participants broke through target zone 2 (0.9762–0.9749), and the next growth target is zone 3 (0.9903–0.9890). The key trend support is shifting to 0.9733–0.9720. If the "bulls" test this zone as part of the correction, new long may be considered.

Resistance levels: 0.985, 1.004 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.96

XAUUSD - Demand for gold continues to decline

Gold prices show a slight increase, retreating from their April 2020 record lows, updated the day before, and trying to consolidate above 1630 amid increasing uncertainty about the global economic outlook.

The pressure on the XAUUSD pair remains, as the market expects further tightening of monetary policy by global financial regulators. In particular, the US Federal Reserve may go for at least one more major interest rate hike before the end of the year. In turn, the Bank of England may hold an emergency meeting in order to correct the rate, although it was previously noted that the regulator plans to take a wait-and-see position until November.

Demand for contracts based on the precious metal continues to decline: this week, the rate of liquidation of transactions for sale significantly exceeds the statistics for purchases. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased to 65.7 thousand from 97.3 thousand a week earlier. As for the balance of sellers and buyers, the "bears" still hold the lead in the positions of swap dealers, and their number is 150.801 thousand against 96.613 thousand for the "bulls". This week, buyers again increased the number of contracts by 6.691 thousand, which is almost 10 times more than last week's increase, while sellers reduced their positions by 21.070 thousand contracts, which is 4 times higher than the rate of liquidation last week.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic retains downward direction but is located in close proximity to its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold gold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1640, 1653.92, 1675, 1688.58 | Support levels: 1620, 1600, 1579.25, 1562.7

Crude Oil - US strategic oil stock hits 1984 low

The dynamics of the asset are affected by the continued release of oil from US reserve storage facilities. As noted in The Wall Street Journal, energy stocks fell last week to a minimum since 1984, reaching 427.0M barrels, and fell below commercial reserves held by US firms, which raises fears of experts ahead of the entry into force of the ban. for the import of Russian "black gold" by the EU countries from December 5. According to preliminary estimates, the market may lose up to 1.0M barrels per day, which will lead to a sharp increase in prices and have nothing to compensate for.

Despite the fall in quotations, the demand for contracts from investors continues to rise for the third week, reaching a value of 239.9K against 227.1K a week earlier. Such values were last recorded in 2016, during the first serious decline in oil prices to levels around 30 – 40 dollars per barrel, and at the current level of demand, there is no increase in asset quotes expected.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line and move away from it, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 85.5, 92 | Support levels: 82.4, 76.8

Alphabet - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) formed and a downward correction develops as the fourth wave (4), taking a shape of a double zigzag WXY. Now, the wave Y of (4) is developing, within which the wave a of Y is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 84.35–77.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 122.33.

EURUSD - US dollar continues a record growth

The cost of gas to consumers could rise by 60% in the fourth quarter, with a new high for electricity at 66.6 cents per kilowatt-hour, up 25.0 cents from the previous quarter, according to forecasts by Italian analyst Nomisma Energia. The supply of "blue fuel" from Russia was again under threat after reports were received of the destruction of three strings of gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system near the Danish island of Bornholm. According to representatives of Nord Stream AG, which is the operator of the project, critical damage has been recorded, the timing of the repair of which is still unknown. Meanwhile, experts predict a slowdown in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Italy at least by two times, and the inflation rate is expected to be around 10.0%. Last month, energy prices in the country rose by 44.9% compared to 42.9% a month earlier, food prices rose by 10.5%, and durable goods by 3.9%. The Italian authorities have already allocated more than 50.0 billion euros to stabilize the economic situation, but it is obvious that this is not enough.

The trading instrument is traded within the global downward channel and has almost reached the support line. Technical indicators continue holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 0.948, 0.93 | Resistance levels: 0.967, 0.986

XRPUSD - Murray analysis

Against the background of the possible imminent completion of the lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple Labs, the token price rose to five-month highs around 0.5548, after which it resumed its decline, which continues to this day. Now the quotes are close to the 0.4000-0.3906 support zone (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [0/8]), the breakdown of which will open the prospect of a further decline to 0.3418 (Murray [-1/8]), 0.3200, 0.2930 (Murray [-2/8]). With a reverse breakout of 0.4395 (Murray [1/8], Fibo retracement 23.6%), the instrument is likely to return to 0.4883 (Murray [2/8]) and 0.5219 (Fibo retracement 38.2%).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the preservation of the short-term upward trend, but the Stochastic is directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone, not excluding the development of a decline. 

Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4883, 0.5219 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3418, 0.3200, 0.2930

AUDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) ended, and a downward correction formed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) ended. Now, the third wave (3) is developing, within which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the AUD/USD pair will grow to the area of 0.6912–0.7135. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6362.

EURUSD -The euro returns to declining

The European currency is falling, retreating after an active corrective growth the day before, when quotes retreated from record lows. The reason for the strengthening of the downtrend was mainly technical factors, as well as the prospect of foreign exchange interventions by regulators.

In turn, the news background remained quite pessimistic, which did not allow the "bulls" to develop an uptrend. In particular, Gfk Group's Consumer Confidence Index, published yesterday in Germany, corrected from -36.8 points to -42.5 points in October. In addition, the index of Economic Expectations in Switzerland in September from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) fell from -56.3 points to -69.2 points.

The focus of investors today will be a block of data on the level of Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment in the euro area for September. Also during the day statistics on the dynamics of inflation in Germany is expected to be released: the figure may accelerate sharply from 7.9% to 9.4% in September.

According to Bloomberg, the EU states intend to postpone the final decision on the issue of setting a price limit for Russian "black gold". Earlier it was predicted that the amendments could be part of another package of sanctions against the Russian economy, which is likely to target specific sectors such as aviation, as well as affect the export of technologies for industry. In particular, it was not possible to obtain unanimous approval of all EU member states: among those who expressed disagreement, Bloomberg names Cyprus and Hungary. Against this backdrop, the region's authorities are discussing other sanctions policy options against Russia, which include control over the supply of diamonds and a ban on the export of certain products made from steel and wood.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.975, 0.98, 0.985 | Support levels: 0.9600, 0.9534, 0.945, 0.94

Crude Oil - Markets fear restrictions on oil imports from Russia

The quotes moved to corrective growth after it became known that the European authorities are intending to return to the issue of setting a maximum price level for the oil supply from Russia. Initially, such an initiative was not supported by all the states of the EU (Hungary and Cyprus were opposed), but yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that restrictions could appear in the new, already eighth package of sanctions against the Russian economy. The European Union also intends to limit the import of products to up to 7B euros and prohibit EU citizens from entering the management bodies of Russian companies, which is now quite common. Thus, investors fear that by December, the region will experience not only a shortage of gas, the supply of which has practically ceased after reports of the destruction of three pipelines of the Nord Stream system near the Danish island of Bornholm but also oil due to a "mirror" response to the introduction of sanctions by official Moscow.

On the daily chart, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 89.68, 97.1 | Support levels: 82.54, 76.2

ADAUSD - the token remains under pressure

The release of the Cardano Vasil network update made it more scalable and improved the convenience of working with smart contracts but could not provide serious support to the positions of ADA. Experts identify two main reasons that led to pressure on the token.

Firstly, modernization was postponed for a long time. Investors managed to factor in the positive effect of it into the price, and, accordingly, after the activation of the quote, they began a corrective decline. A similar technical picture was observed earlier after the release of Cardano Shelley and Alonzo forks. The tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve remains a long-term factor that puts pressure on the entire cryptocurrency sector: at the last meeting, the regulator again raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing it to the range of 3.00–3.25%, and predicted its preservation for high levels over the next few years. Accordingly, the US currency may soon continue to strengthen against alternative assets, including digital ones.

The trading instrument fell below 0.4394 (Murrey [2/8]), which gives the prospect of further decline to 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]), 0.3662 (Murrey [–1/8]). The key “bullish” level is 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, upon the breakdown of which it will be possible to resume growth to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators reflect that the downtrend is continuing: Bollinger bands and Stochastic are reversing downwards, while the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.4638, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662