Date : 21st September 2022.

Market Update – September 21 – Riksbank spooked markets ahead of Fed, BoE, SNB & Norges Bank.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – extended gains to 110.26, stocks and bonds were down while the 10-year yield surged over 10 bps to hit 3.60%, but slid to finish at 3.555%. It is the first close over 3.5% since April 2011. The curve steepened to -39 bps from -45 bp.
*ECB’s Lagarde expects to raise rates further over the “next several meetings,” in her speech on Monetary Policy in the Euro Area. That and the surprisingly bold 100 bp rate boost from Sweden’s Riksbank kicked off a very heavy week of central bank decisions and got trading off on the back foot. The markets are repricing for the possibility other central banks will be in more of a rush to tighten policy.
*Putin declares partial military mobilisation to bolster Ukraine war effort.
*EUR – plummets below 0.9900.
*JPY – topped 144.00, before drifting by 60 pips on the EU open as Yen strengthened. The BoJ left its bond buying schedule unchanged and signalled ongoing focus on trying to cap yields which may have helped to soothen nerves.
*GBP – dipped to 1.1338, at 37-year lows.
*Stocks: US500 and the US30 were down just over -1%, with the US100 off -0.95%. European rates closed up over 10 bps, and bourses dropped over -1%. JPN225 and ASX closed with losses of -1.6% and -1.4% respectively yesterday, and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -1.2% and -0.3%. US and European equity futures are also in the red.
USOil – ticked up to $85.50.

Overnight – BoJ maintains bond buying program, with the focus on trying to keep a lid on yields, ahead of the policy decision later in the week. The BoJ plans to buy 150 billion yen of debt in the 5-10 year and 100 billion yen of securities with maturities of 10-25 years. That is on top of the offer of unlimited purchases of 10-year bonds at 0.25%. The 10-year rate climbed to the 0.25% upper limit of the BoJ’s tolerated range last week for the first time in three months, as officials tried to talk up the Yen.

Today – The FOMC began its 2-day meeting.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.80%) dipped to 142.00. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line turned negative and falling. RSI 69, H1 ATR 0.271, Daily ATR 1.56.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd September 2022.

Market Update – September 23.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – holds above 111.
*Yields:  10-year surged 18 bps to hit 3.71% but finished at 3.69%. 2-year was 9 bps higher at 4.15% before easing off. It was an 11th straight session of losses, the longest on record (data going back to 1976), according to Bloomberg. The 10-year has sagged for 13 consecutive days. The curve inverted to -54 bps early on before rising to -42 bps late in the day.
*EUR – broke below 0.9800.
*JPY – remained supported after officials stepped in and intervened on forex markets yesterday. USDJPY is at 142.20.
*GBP – remains in the doldrums with Cable at 1.1200.
*Stocks were mired in the red, at 2 year lows, with weakness in consumer discretionary and financials. Some bargain hunting lifted the indexes off of their lows and saw the US30 edge fractionally higher temporarily, but dropped at the close to finish down -0.35%. The US100 lost -1.37%, and the US500 was off -0.85%.
*USOil – hovering at 80-82 area.

Overnight – Globally hot inflation rates have resulted in historically tough action from nearly every central bank around the world this week and over the month. Over the past 24 hours there has been a total of 250 bps in rate increases. Many emerging market central banks have been in action too, forced to keep pace with the Fed and to defend their currencies. South Africa lifted rates 75 bps, with Indonesia and the Philippines hiking 50 bps. The BoJ remained the odd man out, though it intervened in the currency market to support JPY. While the FOMC’s 75 bp hike was expected, the upward revisions in the dots to a 4.6% estimate for the terminal rate, and Chair Powell’s hawkish stance, caused much of the repricing in the markets. Additionally, Powell’s warning that there will be further pain in the housing market and that the risks for recession were on the rise exacerbated investor angst. That and the rise in yields knocked mega-tech sharply lower. Nevertheless, many doubt the FOMC will carry through with its projected policy path, while some found buying opportunities amid the downdraft in stocks.

Today – Preliminary PMIs from UK, Germany, EU, and US alongside Canadian Retail Sales and Fed’s Chair Powell.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.63%) MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal lines extend well below 0, RSI 30.62, H1 ATR 0.00175, Daily ATR 0.01282.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th September 2022.

Market Update – September 27.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – at 113.40 after hitting another new 20+ year high at 114.41, as treasuries continue to rally. 10-year yield surged over 20 bps to test 3.898%, the highest since early 2010. The 2-year was over 13 bps cheaper to 4.340%, a new 15-year peak. The 30-year bond was up only 10 bps to 3.715%, an 8-year high. The curve held in the -44 bp area.
*EUR –  lifted slightly amidst a general correction in the Dollar, at 0.9652.
*JPY traded at 144.20. Resistance set at 146.00.
*GBP dropped to an all-time low of 1.035 overnight, but bounced to 1.0800 currently. BoE’s Bailey said the Bank will not hesitate to change rates as much as needed while noting he is monitoring the financial markets. That disappointed as the markets hoped to hear something firmer and more definitive on the crash in Cable. The UK100 bounced and managed a fractional gain at the end of the day.

*Stocks: Stock markets started to stabilize overnight and Nikkei and ASX managed gains of 0.5% and -0.4% respectively. Wall Street gave up early gains and closed with losses of over -1.0% on the US30 and US500, with the latter at 3655, piercing the 3666 nadir from June 16, and is the weakest since December 14, 2020. The US100 slid -0.60%.
*USOil closed yesterday below $76 (9-month low) on indications that OPEC+ may enact output cuts to avoid a further collapse in prices.
*Gold – drifted to $1621 outside daily BB.
*BTC – higher at $20,162.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.27%). Retesting 50-hour SMA at 0.5715, Intraday fast MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line hold negative but close to 0, RSI rise to 57, H1 ATR 0.00175, Daily ATR 0.00878.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th September 2022.

Market Update – September 29 – Sterling & Stocks drift as BoE boost fades.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – tumbled at 112.43 after the BoE’s actions ( worst session in 2.5 years). Today it found some ground edging towards 113.35, buoyed by renewed pressure on the pound.
*Yields: UBoE’s announcement that it will buy up to GBP 5 bln a day for 13 days in a bid to stabilise markets bruised by the government’s mini-budget may have helped Gilts and wider bond markets to recover somewhat yesterday, but while Australia and New Zealand bonds rallied in catch up trade, yields are already rising again in Europe and the US. Record surge in Gilts where the 30-year rate plunged an historic 105 bps to 3.913%, unwinding the better than 130 bp selloff to a 5.135% high. The 10-year Gilt crashed 50 bps, the most since 1992, to 3.999%.

While intervention supported Gilts, Treasuries rallied on haven demand amid global investor jitters, bargain hunting, a solid 7-year auction, and a month-end bid.

*GBP remains volatile as BoE presses panic button. Sterling rallied on the BoE’s initial announcement of bond purchases, but Cable has since settled at 1.08 area as the rapid switch from scheduled asset sales to “temporary” bond purchases has not really helped to instill confidence in the currency.
*EUR – returned to 0.9665.
*JPY traded at 144.70.
*Stocks:  The 1.96% bounce to 3718 in the US500 snapped a six-day string of losses, the worst since February 2020, as the index climbed off of Tuesday’s 3647, a new 2022 low. Strength was broadbased with energy climbing over 4%. The US100 jumped 2.05% to 11,051, and the US30 rose 1.88% to 29,683.
*USOil up to $81. Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger USD. China’s travel during the upcoming week-long national holiday is set to hit the lowest level in years as Beijing’s persistent zero-COVID rules prompt people to stay at home and economic woes dampen spending. Citi economists have lowered their China GDP forecast from 5% year-on-year growth to 4.6% for the fourth quarter of 2022.
*Gold – after some buying retreats to $1647.
*BTC – at 19375.
*Today: German Inflation, ECB’s Panetta, de Guindos, Elderson and Lane speech, US GDP and Jobless claims.

Biggest FX Mover@ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.05%) back to 0.5655. Intraday fast MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line are turnign to 0, RSI at 2342, H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.00953.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd October 2022.

Market Update – October 3 – New Week, Month & Quarter.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Holds Friday’s range at 111.80. Dollar remains in demand following a weak 3rd quarter, HOT CORE CPE inflation on Friday and an emergency FOMC meeting  behind closed doors today. Asian stock markets struggle in key Holiday week, risk appetite remains fragile ahead of more rate hikes and US jobs on Friday. The JPY underperforms in the Asian session. 
*EUR – Trades at 0.9820 now, capped by an 8-day high at 0.9900 but off last weeks 0.9550 low. Alternative gas supplies began to flow over weekend for Greece, Bulgaria & Poland.
*JPY –  Remains weighed as 145.00 is tested once more. Fin. Min. Suzuki –  Japan stands ready for “decisive” steps in the foreign exchange market if excessive Yen moves persist.
*GBP – Continued to recover following mini-budget inspired collapse last week. Capped at 1.1200 so far today ahead of Fin Min Kwarteng’s speech. Rumours swirl of U-turns on tax cuts.
*Stocks US stocks moved lower again on Friday remain pressured. Third consecutive Quarterly fall, largest percentage fall for Q3 in the S&P500 in 20 years, 3rd consecutive week lower and 2nd consecutive month lower.  The first 9-months of 2022 has been the worst since 2008.  APPL, MSFT led tech lower on Friday, biggest losers Nike -12.8% & Carnival -23.3% both following warnings regarding margins due to inflation. Q3 Earnings now expected to be +4.5% down from 11.1% on July 1.

*USOil rallied over 3% to test $82.00 after weekend reports of OPEC+ cutting production “up to 1.5 million barrels per day”.
*Gold – holds at $1665 but remains capped at $1675.
*BTC – rejected $20.0k on Friday and trades at $19.2k now.

Today EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, George & Williams, BoE’s Mann & UK Chancellor Kwarteng.

Week Ahead – US Services,  RBA & RBNZ Rate decisions, ADP & CAD & US (NFP) Jobs.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.82%) Rallied from Friday’s collapse from 83.00 to 81.00, to test 82.00 today. MAs now aligning higher,  MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 52.05 & rising, H1 ATR 0.253, Daily ATR 1.233.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th October 2022.

Market Update – October 5 – Stocks Leap 3%, USD & Yields Sink.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Sank and descended into 110.00 as USD and Yields slipped (US 10yr @3.61%). JOLTS missed significantly (10.05m vs 11.24 last time), adding to hopes Fed may be on the cusp of moderating and possibly even ending rate hikes in coming months (the Fed Pivot). Stocks charged higher (NASDAQ+3.34%). The 5.7% start to Q4 2022 after two days is the best start to a new quarter since Q2 1938 (+8.7%). RBNZ confirmed expectations with a 50bp interest rate hike. NZD rallied. MUSK said TWTR (+22.4%) deal was back on at original $54.20 per share.
*EUR – A weak USD saw EUR storm through 0.9900 and rally to Parity at 1.0000. Trades at 0.9967 now.
*JPY – Reversed from 145.00 to as low as 143.60 trades at 144.00 now.
*GBP – Sterling continued to rally, despite more public disagreements within Government. Cable stalled short of 1.1500 at 1.1490. Cable now trades at 1.1460.
*Stocks – US stocks, leapt again, over 3%. US500 +112.50 (+3.06%) 3790. All sectors rallied significantly. Asian markets ahead, European futures flat ahead of open.

*USOil rallied again to $86.60 (9% in 2-days) ahead of OPEC+ meetings today with production cuts now  “up to 2.0 million barrels per day”.
*Gold – spiked higher again holding the key $1700 and trades at $1725 now.
*BTC – rallied over the key $20k yesterday to $20.2k now.

Today EZ, UK & US Final PMIs, US ISM Services, ADP, OPEC, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & UK PM Truss.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.81%) Rallied from Monday’s low at 0.5500 to 0.5696 yesterday, remains resistance today. MAs now aligning higher,  MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 56.44 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00216, Daily ATR 0.84006.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th October 2022.

Market Update – October 7 – NFP Day – USD Remains on the Front Foot.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Rallied again yesterday and trades over 112.00 (up 1.85% in 2-days) currently. The chorus of Fedspeak (Cook, Evans, Kashkari, Waller & Mester) all pushed the Hawkish tone. BOC’s Macklem also very Hawkish too. Weekly Claims rose to 219k from 190K but remain historically low. Fed Funds Futures now have an 85.5% chance of 75bp rate hike at Nov. 2 FOMC meeting.  Stocks closed -1%, Yields rallied (10-yr 3.83% from 3.55% earlier in the week). Oil rallied again to $89.00, Gold slipped but holds $1700 and BTC is under $20K again. Japan published more mixed data, (Earnings and Leading Indicators up, Household Spending down). German Import Prices rose significantly, Retail Sales & Ind. Production missed. Asian & European stocks are lower following a weak Wall St.  Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat biggest risk since Cuban Missile Crisis and that the US is reviewing ‘response options’ on Saudi relations after OPEC+.
*EUR – A brief break of 0.9900, reversed all the way to 0.9786 now. ECB remains pressured to take more decisive action as Energy crisis swirls and fractures with EU persist, despite the “Prague” accord, with Putin increasingly cornered. 
*JPY – Rallied from lows yesterday at 144.50 to once again test the key 145.00 now. Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record $54 billion in September, as the BOJ tried to defend the Yen.
*GBP Sterling sank another 240+ pips yesterday and is under pressure along with new PM Truss.  From over 1.1350 to 1.1110 lows yesterday, Cable trades at 1.1340 now.
Stocks – US stocks, were heavy all day and close down (-1.01%), US500 -38.00 at 3744. TWTR -3.72%, TSLA -1.11% (Musk lawsuit dropped & deal to close 28/10, also said Pepsi will get first semi trucks in December). LEVI -3.92% (ahead of weak Earnings; -6.34% after hours). US FUTS at 3740.

*USOil rallied again to $89.00 after OPEC+ agreed 2.0 million barrels per day production cuts this week, provoking major rebuke from the US.
*Gold – declined from another test of $1725 yesterday before again moving back to  $1710. 
*BTC – dipped below the key $20k again today having tested $20.2k yesterday. Trades at 19.8k now.

Today US & Canadian Jobs reports, BOE’s Ramsden, Fed’s Williams, Kashkari, & Bostic.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.25%) Continued to decline from 6-day high at 165.500 on Wednesday to test 161.00 yesterday and trades at 161.35 now.  MAs aligned lower,  MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling RSI 35.28 & falling, H1 ATR 0.359, Daily ATR 3.498.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th October 2022.

Market Update – October 11 – Risk Off – Gilts lead Yields & USD Higher, Stocks, Gold & Oil Sink.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Rallied again (113.40) as US moves to curb US chip technology to China hit Chinese hi-tech companies. UK GILTS lead US Yields higher. BOE – Widening the scope of its daily Gilt buying operations from 11-14 October. Cable tests 1.1000. Stocks remain on the back foot (-1%).  Asian markets hit by US Chip move (TSMC -8.33% & $240b wiped off wider market value) & European FUTS lower. PUTIN reacts to bridge attack with attacks on 13 Ukraine cities further undermining confidence. RISK OFF Tuesday. 
*EUR – trades as low as 0.9670, today under pressure from safe haven bid for USD.
*JPY – rallied as high as 145.85 today and the “BOJ intervention” levels of September 20-22.
*GBP – Sterling sank again too as UK Gilts rallied, Cable  back to 1.0996 with the pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng showing no signs of waning.
*Stocks – US stocks, were heavy again on Monday and closed down -1.04% to -0.32%. US500 -27.7 at 3612. AMD -1.08%, Ford -6.89%, NVDA -3.36%. US FUTS tested the key 3600 level on Monday and trades at 3613 now.

*USOil – declined into $90.00 from $93.00 highs as USD accrued and sentiment waned.
*Gold – declined again as strong USD and high Yields weighed, October lows of $1661 have been tested today.
*BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank under $19k to trade at $18.9k.

Today UK JOBS beat expectations, US IBD/TIPP, Speeches from ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Harker & Mester, BOE’s Bailey & Cunliffe, SNB’s Jordan, RBA’s Ellis, Astana Summit.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.54%) Continued to decline as risk off took hold. Down to test 0.6250 today. MAs aligned lower,  MACD histogram & signal line negative & falling, RSI 36.52 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00149, Daily ATR 0.01109.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th October 2022.

Market Update – October 13 – FOMC Minutes Remain Hawkish – CPI Today.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Held 113.00 yesterday and again tested 113.44. Yields cooled from recent highs. (US 10yr at 3.902%). US PPI was hotter than expected (0.4% vs 0.2% & -0.1% prior). FOMC Mins. less Hawkish than many anticipated but far from indicating a pivot anytime soon. “Participants judged that a softening in the labor market would be needed to ease upward pressures on wages and prices.” and “emphasized the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action.”
*The UK’s new  fiscal policy remains squarely under threat and the BOE’s Bond-Buying, beyond Friday is still being questioned despite BOE denials. Sterling recovered yesterday but Gilts remain very fragile. US Stocks closed flat, Asian markets lower (Hang Seng -1.13%) & European FUTS also flat.
*EUR – rotates through  0.9700, up from 0.9670 lows but unable to hold over 0.9720.
*JPY – rallied through 146.00 to new 24-year highs yesterday within a few pips of 147.00. 146.85 now. 
*GBP – Sterling rallied from a new 11-day low at 1.0923 over 1.1000 to 1.1075. Immense pressure on new PM Truss & Chancellor Kwarteng to reverse tax cuts or face a major rebellion.
*Stocks – US stocks, were mixed but biased lower on Wednesday and closed down US500 -033%, -11.81 at 3577. MRNA +8.28%, PEPSI +4.18%, VLO +5.02%. US500 FUTS trades at 3586 now.

*USOil – declined again on global recession worries into $86.25, back to $87.15 now.
*Gold – remained range bound between $1665 support zone and $1675. Trades at $1668 now but remains pressured.
*BTC – also weighed by weak sentiment and a strong USD sank to $18.8K yesterday trades at $19.1k now.

Today German HICP confirmed at  record 10.9%  US CPI, US DoE, IEA OMR,  Speeches from ECB’s de Guindos & BOE’s Mann.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.30%) rallied from sub 160.00 lows yesterday to 163.25 highs today, before declining into 162.50. MAs declining now,  MACD histogram & signal line positive but starting to decline,  RSI 54.40 & declining, H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 3.201.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th October 2022.

Market Update – October 17 – Tug-of-war!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – steady at 112.90 following US inflation which reinforced bets of a 90.9% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike, and a 9.1% chance of a 100 bp increase in the Fed’s next meeting. Yields down, 10-year Treasury rate is down -4.1 bp at 3.977% and the German Bund future has corrected -6.3 bp, after the JGB rate corrected -0.3 bp to 0.24%.
GBP – Sterling rallied to 1.1300 on calls for PM Truss to resign and ahead of UK Chancellor announcement for tax and spending measures, 2 weeks earlier than scheduled, as he tries to stem a loss of confidence in the government’s fiscal plans. Truss said on Friday that corporation tax will rise to 25% from April 2023 instead of remaining it at 19% as part of her government’s initial “mini-budget”. Medium-term fiscal plan remains as scheduled on Oct. 31.
Daily Mail reported that: “British lawmakers will try to oust Truss this week despite Downing Street’s warning that it could trigger a general election.”
EUR – slightly up to 0.9735.
JPY – pinned to 32-year (1990) highs at 148.79 as markets await signs of intervention from Japanese authorities.
Stocks – Stock markets have remained under pressure overnight, after a weak close on Wall Street Friday, after inflation concerns were rekindled by a US survey showing the first rise in inflation expectations in a while. Still, US futures are higher and with a nearly 1% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way.
China and Hong Kong stocks fell after Chinese President Xi talked up national security, while dashing hopes of any changes in growth-hitting zero-COVID policies and property sector curbs. Xi called for accelerating the building of a world-class military, while touting the fight against COVID-19 as he kicked off the Communist Party Congress on Sunday by focusing on security and reiterating policy priorities. Greater emphasis on national security comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The biggest applause came when Xi restated opposition to Taiwan independence.

*USOil – holds support at $85.
*Gold – $1650.
*BTC – down for the day to $19214.

Today US Monthly Budget, BOC Outlook Survey. All eyes remain on UK though and the speech of Chancellor Hunt.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (+0.23%) rallied at EU open to 6907 but pulled back asap. MAs flattened,  MACD histogram & signal line hold below 0,  RSI 46 & falling, H1 ATR 19.84, Daily ATR 142.87.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th October 2022.

Market Update – October 19 – Inflation hasn’t disappeared.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex steady below 20-DMA at 112.20.  Yields are rising and the rally in stocks is petering out, although ASX and Nikkei still managed to post modest gains and futures are up across Europe and the US. The 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 4.4 bp to 4.05% though and the Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 2.3%.
*EUR – holds Tuesday’s gains at 0.9830.
*JPY – at 149.42 and eyeing the psychologically important 1.50 mark.
*GBP – slightly below 1.1300 again. UK inflation higher than expected at 10.1% in September, versus 9.9% in August and compared to consensus expectations for a 10.1% y/y reading. RPI, still an important indicator for wage negotiations, lifted to 12.6% from 12.3%.  Numbers will add to the arguments in favor of at least a 75 bp hike from the BoE in November.

*Stocks – Stocks surged at the open, rising over 2%, but closed with gains of 1.13% on the US30, 1.16% on the US500 (back over 3700), and 0.90% on the US100. Some decent earnings news and hopes for more of the same (Netflix beat in after-hours release) helped underpin.
*Netflix shares ticked up to the highest at $248.98 following results that beat consensus estimates: EPS: $3.10; Rev: $7.93B; Global Subscribers: +2.41 mil. The management ‘very optimistic’ regarding its new ad-supported plan. But later closed the day lower at $240.74.
*USOil – dropped -2.67% to $83.18 after the White House confirmed additional supply of 10 to 15 mln barrels will be released from the SPR and natgas tumbled -4.77% to $5.71, the lowest close since July 7.
*Gold – dropped to $1642.

Today EU HICP, BoC Inflation and US Housing Starts & Building permits.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD drifted to 1637. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line extend down, RSI 22 but flattened.  H1 ATR 3.16, Daily ATR 26.11.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th October 2022.

Market Update – October 24 – Mixed China Data, Sterling Rallies, Yen Whipsaws.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*USDIndex – Spiked down to 111.30 following more BOJ intervention as the JPY whipsawed and GBP rallied following the news that Boris Johnson will not run for PM again. USDIndex is now back to 112.00.  Xi Jinping cemented power for a third 5-year term, Chinese data very mixed, GDP & Ind Production & Trade balance all big beats but Unemployment rises and Retail sales misses significantly.  AUD & JPY Manu. PMI’s both missed.  More Fedspeak over weekend shows signs that some may be looking to slow down rate hikes, possibly as early as the December meeting. Has cycle-high “Peak Dollar” been realised? Asian markets also very mixed following Chinese data, despite strong Wall Street close (Nikkei +0.51% Hang Seng -5.54%), European FUTS higher.
*EUR – rotated from 0.9700, lows on Friday to 0.9900 today as USD demand swung wildly. 
*JPY – FT reported that BOJ bought $30 bln Yen on Friday as the pair hit 152.00, spiked to down to 146.00, before rallying to 149.50 again today and then further signs of BOJ action took the pair to 145.70 before once again recovering to 149.00 now.
*GBP – Sterling rallied from 1.1060 lows on Friday to close at 1.1300 and then rally to 1.1400 on open following Johnson news. Trades at 1.1360 now. A Sunak/Hunt combination the most acceptable to the markets, Gilts, Sterling and FTSE FUTS all higher.
*Stocks – Wall Street rallied on Friday (+2.37-2.47%) and had its best week (+4.74- 5.22%) in 4 mths. SNAP tanked -28.08% on worst Earnings in 5-years as Advertisers cut back (Pintrest -6.4%, META -1.6%) Weak earnings too from AMEX -1.67% & Verizon -4.46%)   US500 3752 (+2.37%) US500 FUTS trades at 3766 now. Biggest week ahead for Earnings.

*USOil – from $83.00 lows on Friday to $85.51 highs today and now trades at $84.00.
*Gold – plunged to $1617 lows on Friday before recovering to $1670 peaks today and trades at $1654 now.
*BTC – plummeted to test $18.5K on Friday, spiked to $19.7k today before slipping back to $19.3k now.

Today EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, UK Conservative Party Leadership Election (Sunak likely new PM).

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+1.11%) Johnson will NOT run – Sterling rallied from sub 165.500 lows Friday and again today to 169.75 highs.  MAs aligned higher,  MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising,  RSI 57.50 & rising, H1 ATR 1.117, Daily ATR 3.005.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.