EURUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) ended, within which the fifth wave v of (C) formed. Now, the upward wave (C) has started, within which the entry first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.0366 – 1.0612. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9858.

USDCHF - Swiss economy remains under pressure

Switzerland's trade balance will be published tomorrow, which could fall to annual lows of 2.9B francs due to the continued rise in the cost of imports: this figure added 8.6% in August compared to last year's value. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will publish fresh economic forecasts, which will reflect the situation with inflation, which due to rising import prices, may increase to 3.3–3.5% this month, which is another anti-record for the country.

On the daily chart, the price is correcting within the downwards corridor, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a sell signal, which has weakened due to an upward correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another downward bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.9843 | Support levels: 0.9587, 0.941

BTCUSD - The price falls before the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve

BTC is declining before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that this week the agency will again raise the interest rate by another 75.0 points, and several investors are considering the possibility of growth by 100.0 points at once, as a result of which the rate will be at the highest level since 2008 and will continue to put serious pressure on speculative assets, including digital ones. In the context of rapid inflation, the US regulator will keep interest rates high for a long time, even after they reach the "neutral" level. Thus, the negative impact on the cryptocurrency market will be long-term.

The trading instrument maintains a short-term downward trend. The breakdown of 18750 gives the prospect of further decline to 17800 (June lows), 17187.5 (Murrey [–2/8]), and 16900 (Fibonacci 100.00 extension). The key "bullish" level is 20312.50 (Murrey [2/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it consolidates above it, the quotes may begin to recover to 21875 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger bands), 23437.5 ( Murrey [6/8]), 25000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%).

Technical indicators reflect the possibility of further decline: Bollinger bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is horizontal near the oversold zone.

Resistance levels: 20312.5, 21875, 23437.5, 25000 | Support levels: 17800, 17187.5, 16900

Walmart - Technical analysis

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting upwards after a significant decline, forming a local ascending channel with boundaries of 132 – 146. Now the quotes have reached the support line of the range, after which an upward wave began. On the four-hour chart of the asset, the price is above the key level of the basic correction of 38.2% Fibonacci around 133 in favor of continuing the positive dynamics, after consolidation above which, the growth may continue to a full correction of 61.8% Fibonacci around 144.

Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, despite ambiguous fluctuations, is moving in the buying zone.

Crude Oil - Oil prices are consolidating

Brent Crude Oil prices show near-zero dynamics, consolidating near the level of 91. Pressure on quotes is exerted by expectations of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the interest rate may be raised by 75 basis points for the third time in a row. The Bank of England and the National Bank of Switzerland are also expected to tighten their monetary policies this week. The increase in interest rates is aimed at containing the sharp increase in inflation, but also leads to a slowdown in economic activity. In particular, analysts assess the risks of a recession in the European economy, which also faced serious challenges due to the energy crisis.

Another negative factor affecting the quotes of "black gold" is the fall in industrial activity in China due to its zero tolerance policy towards COVID-19. Finally, the markets are concerned about the restrictions that apply to the import of oil and oil products from the Russian Federation. Western countries continue to discuss the introduction of marginal prices for Russian "black gold".

Today, the focus of investors will be data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended September 16. The previous report reflected a sharp increase in reserves of "black gold" by 6.035 million barrels, while the US Department of Energy reported an increase of only 2.442 million barrels.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics, having reversed upwards at the end of last week. Current readings of the indicators signal in favor of a corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 91, 92.47, 94.5, 96.54 | Support levels: 88.79, 87, 86, 85

AUDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended, and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is developing, within which the wave (v) of v is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6917.

GBPUSD - The pound is preparing to renew the year's lows

The pound has consolidated near another historical low and is being traded in anticipation of new macroeconomic data but investors are paying attention to consumer sentiment now. Yesterday, Prime Minister Liz Truss said that the issue of rationing electricity tariffs is not worth it, as they will be frozen. Ordinary Britons fear the measure will come at a too high current cost: rates have risen sharply in recent times, putting a heavy strain on households that risk a financial crisis by the start of winter.

The US dollar continues to develop positive dynamics in anticipation of today's meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors perceived yesterday's data on the housing market as neutral: the number of building permits issued in August decreased to 1.517M from 1.658M, which is a fairly significant drop when taking into account the average values of the current year, and the volume of construction of new houses, on the contrary, showed a significant increase, amounting to 1.575M instead of 1.404M a month earlier.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, declining along the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1462, 1.1686 | Support levels: 1.13, 1.11

EURUSD - In anticipation of poor statistics on business activity in the EU

The European currency is showing negative dynamics against its main competitors in anticipation of tomorrow's publication of an extensive block of macroeconomic statistics: analysts predict a decline in business activity indicators for September in almost all leading EU countries. Thus, Composite PMI in Germany may fall to 46.0 points from 46.9 points in August, and Composite PMI in France may fall to 49.8 points from 50.4 points earlier. EU Composite PMI index of business activity in the EU is expected to be 48.2 points, down from 48.9 points in the previous period.

Yesterday, analysts' attention was focused on the US markets. The US dollar renewed the year's high and is currently trading around 111.200 in the USD Index after the country's financial regulator raised its interest rate by 75.0 basis points to 3.25% and provided forecasts for the development of the economic situation. Expectations worsened on all three main indicators: inflation in 2022 is expected at 5.4% from 5.2% previously, unemployment will increase to 3.8% from 3.7% earlier, and economic growth may slow to 0.2% from 1.7% earlier, which most disappointed experts, as the decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) confirms the annual recession.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain an increasing sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9900, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.9800, 0.965

Crude Oil - Growth in US inventories puts pressure on asset quotes

According to a Reuters report yesterday, OPEC+'s target deviation in production is currently around 3.58M barrels per day (about 3.5% of global demand). The excess relative to the August value of 2.89M barrels amounted to 24%. According to cartel representatives, the negative dynamics are observed due to insufficient investment in oil projects in Nigeria and Angola and the impact of Western sanctions on Russian production. Thus, the production of hydrocarbons in Nigeria in August fell by a record 1.0M barrels against fuel theft from pipelines.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, approaching the year's low. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator remain below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 91.15, 96.4 | Support levels: 86.85, 77.66

Visa - Technical analysis

On the daily chart, a global Triangle pattern is developing with dynamically narrowing boundaries of 185 – 214, and at the moment the price has come close to the support line, preparing to break it. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that the potential for quotes to consolidate below the support line of the figure around 185.00 is much higher since it has entered its last third, which, according to statistics, increases the likelihood of implementation. If the support is not broken, the trading instrument may reverse and correct towards the pattern's resistance line at 212.00.

Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is directed downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars.

XAUUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction forms as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) develops as a momentum. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C of (4) is forming, within which the wave (v) of iii of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the area of 1621.9 – 1515.1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1736.8.

USDCAD - Trend change in the pair

This week, there was a lack of Canadian statistics published, which allowed the quotes of the trading instrument to remain under the full control of the US currency, but today the situation may change after Statistics Canada publishes data on retail sales for July. According to forecasts, the underlying indicator may decline by 1.2% after rising by 0.8% a month earlier, while retail sales may decrease by 2.0% after rising by 1.1% in June, which only exacerbates the dynamics of the trading instrument.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price continues to trade above the resistance line of the wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.28 – 1.34, confidently holding in the uptrend. The Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the AO oscillator's histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.354, 1.375 | Support levels: 1.34, 1.322