BTCUSD - The medium-term trend has changed to an uptrend
The "bears" failed to break through 18500 down and update the June low in the BTCUSD pair. The weakness of sellers is due to the strengthening of the positions of risky assets against the backdrop of a downward correction in the US dollar exchange rate.

Investors have begun to re-examine alternative means of investment, including cryptocurrencies. So, on September 4, the BTC hash rate was 298.5 EH/s, renewing the previous high of August 280 EH/s, which indicates that miners continue to introduce new capacities, thereby increasing the security and stability of the network.

Meanwhile, against an intensifying sanctions policy against the national economy, the Russian authorities announced the need to legalize cross-border transactions using digital instruments. According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev, the department is now ready to allow residents of the country to open cryptocurrency wallets. He also pointed out that the positions of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia regarding mining activities began to converge, and already in the autumn session, the State Duma could pass a law that would regulate this segment. Recall that at the end of last month, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin proposed using digital currencies in foreign trade (particularly when importing and exporting goods) as an alternative to existing means of payment.

The impossibility of breaking through the support level of 18500 led the instrument to grow by 20%, and now the target for the movement of quotes is 25000. If this level is held, the fall of "digital gold" will continue, and the June low of 17670 is likely to be renewed. Otherwise, the cryptocurrency will continue to strengthen with the targets at 27444 and 32100.

The medium-term trend has changed to an uptrend. Currently, the price has consolidated above the resistance level of 21600.00, which suggests an upward movement to the area of 22700. The breakout of 22700 will allow the quotes to strengthen to 24200.00 and 24600.00.

Resistance levels: 24900, 27444, 32100 | Support levels: 18500, 13200

Shares of Pfizer, the largest US pharmaceutical company, are trading around 48. On the daily chart, a global corrective trend is forming, and the price is clamped within the Triangle pattern with dynamic boundaries of 45 – 51.

On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the local decline ended with the support line at 45, after which a reversal was formed, and the quotes of the trading instrument are heading towards the resistance line at 50.3. Taking into account the lengths of local waves, the moment of the pattern implementation will not come soon, and the asset is expected to decline after the end of the current upward impulse.

At the moment, fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming up bars in the sell zone.

AUDUSD - The market is waiting for the US inflation data

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its second-quarter housing stock data today, showing total home values down 162.4 billion Australian dollars for the first time since March 2020 after peaking in the previous quarter. The number of residential buildings increased by 45.2 thousand, while the average price of a house decreased by 18.9 thousand Australian dollars. In addition, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index showed positive results, adding 3.9% in September after falling 3.0% in the previous month.

The key influence on the AUD/USD pair is provided by the US dollar, which for the first time since the beginning of August corrected below 108 in the USD Index. Today at 14:30 (GMT+2) the market will follow the data on the dynamics of consumer prices for August, and analysts predict a decline in inflation to 8.1% from 8.5% a month earlier. The current indicator is also important as a key benchmark for the US Federal Reserve, which is going to continue the aggressive tightening of monetary conditions. Investors hope that positive macroeconomic statistics may act as a driver for the revision of plans to raise interest rates, which will ease the pressure on the economy, which is at risk of recession.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting upwards, moving away from the lows of the year. Technical indicators start to reverse towards growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram started reversing towards the transition level while forming new ascending bars.

Support levels: 0.6829, 0.6698 | Resistance levels: 0.6916, 0.7050

CAC 40 - French stock market is recovering

The quotes of the trading instrument were supported by the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise the interest rate by a record value of 75 basis points. At the same time, not all officials of the regulator are confident in the need to continue such a "hawkish" course. Thus, ECB Governing Council member Edward Scicluna recognized the adjustment as necessary in the current economic conditions, noting that the maximum level of correction of the indicator will probably not be applied in the future. European officials intend to focus on inflation statistics and do not rule out a slowdown to 25 basis points.

The index quotes have reversed and continue to show active growth. Technical indicators are preparing to issue a new buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are rapidly approaching the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the sales zone, forms ascending bars.

Support levels: 6234, 5871 | Resistance levels: 6408, 6624

NZDUSD - Candlestick analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, a Bearish Marubozu pattern formed at 0.6018. In addition, above the support level of 0.5963, a reversal "bullish" candlestick analysis model, Inverted Hammer, was formed, which signals the weakening potential of the "bears". In this situation, a scenario with an uptrend from the support level of 0.5963 to the resistance level of 0.6073 seems likely, overcoming which will allow buyers to restore the price higher to the area of 0.6258–0.6528. An alternative scenario is possible if the "bears" can overcome the support level of 0.5963, then the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 0.5577.

D1
On the daily chart, a Falling Wedge price pattern is forming, and a Hammer pattern has formed above the support level of 0.5963, signaling that the price has bottomed and is ready for a quick reversal. In turn, the Bearish Marubozu pattern, having blocked the previous five-day growth of the asset, warns of a change in market sentiment. In the current situation, a scenario is likely with the recovery of the asset's positions to the resistance level of 0.6073, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the range of 0.6258–0.6528.

Support levels: 0.5963, 0.5845, 0.5577 | Resistance levels: 0.6073, 0.6258, 0.6528

The XRP coin moves within a corrective sideways channel at 0.3364, reversing downwards.

H4
On the four-hour chart, the key support is 0.3130. After its breakdown, the decline may reach the year's low of 0.2873. The technical indicators have already fully reversed and issued a sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone.

D1
On the daily chart of the asset, a local ascending channel is forming with dynamic boundaries 0.3200–0.4200, and the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.3130. Technical indicators are uncertain and preparing to issue a new sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is still quite narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars.

Overall, both charts point to a likely continuation of the decline, with a global target around the all-time low of 0.2873.

Resistance levels: 0.3605, 0.4299 | Support levels: 0.3136, 0.2873

EURTRY - The price rushed to the historical high around 18.6

Lira quotes are strengthening after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unveiled a plan to allocate 50.0B dollars for the construction of new residential buildings and office buildings. As part of the initiative, the government will extend the mortgage repayment period to 20 years to keep monthly payments below 125.0 dollars at a minimum monthly salary of 300.0 dollars. If we pay attention to macroeconomic statistics, then according to the July report, the volume of industrial production in Turkey slowed to 2.4% from 8.8% earlier, and retail sales decreased by 0.3%, which led to a slowdown in the annual rate to 2.0 %.

Despite the decline of the euro against the backdrop of yesterday's report on the index of economic sentiment from ZEW to –60.7 points from –54.9 points, it is the European currency that controls the dynamics of the asset, which will not change soon due to the too large gap in the strength of the economies of the two countries. Until Friday, the current trend may continue, and at the end of the week, statistics on consumer prices in the EU will be released and judging by the strong reaction of the market to yesterday's similar data from the US, we can assume that if the indicator drops below 9.1%, the pair EUR/TRY is expected to rise again.

The trading instrument demonstrates positive dynamics as part of the next wave of global growth, approaching the all-time high around 18.6. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 18.6, 19.3 | Support levels: 17.923, 17.241

Gold - Candlestick Analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern at the level of 1696.34; however, the attempt of the "bulls" to seize the initiative in the XAU/USD pair was unsuccessful. This can be seen in the formation of a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which showed that the market is still under the influence of sellers. The appearance of opposite figures states uncertainty, and in the current situation the price may reverse at the support level of 1682.63 and head higher to the resistance level of 1732.43, overcoming of which will open the way for the "bulls" to the zone of 1808.60–1879.88. An alternative scenario is likely if the price breaks down the support level of 1682.63, then the instrument may drop to the area of 1628.66–1551.08.

D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 1696.34, there is the formation of Inverted Hammer and Hammer candlestick analysis patterns, which warn of a likely price reversal upwards, and at the moment, at the level of 1717.8, another Inverted Hammer model is being built. After a long decline in the asset, the price has probably reached the bottom and is preparing for a reversal. In the current situation, it seems possible to restore quotes to the level of 1732.43, overcoming which will allow the price to strengthen to the area of 1808.6 – 1879.88.

Support levels: 1682.63, 1628.66, 1551.08 | Resistance levels: 1732.43, 1808.6, 1879.88

NZDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B. Now, the wave C of (B) is developing, within which a local correction has ended as the fourth wave of the lower level iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.591 – 0.58. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6165.

USDCAD - Canadian household wealth hits historic low

The "hawkish" policy of the Bank of Canada, which is actively raising interest rates and has brought the rate to 3.25% at the last meeting, has caused serious pressure on households. The previous day, the Statistics Office reported a drop in their wealth in the second quarter to the lowest value in history at –6.1%, which amounted to 775.0B dollars. One of the key factors behind the negative dynamics was a 419.0B dollars decline in real estate prices and corrections in the stock market. The debt-to-income ratio increased to 181.7% from 179.7% a quarter earlier, and analysts expect this trend to pick up in the year's second half.

The US dollar has almost regained its lost position and is now confidently trading above 109 in the USD Index, although macroeconomic statistics record negative dynamics in many industries. Thus, the rate on 30-year loans from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reached a historic high of 6.01%, rising from 5.94%, once again increasing the debt burden on households. It is worth noting the decrease in the producer price index by 0.1% in August and, as a result, the slowdown in the annual rate to 8.7% from 9.8% a month earlier.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2800–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. The Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms multidirectional bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3374 | Support levels: 1.3116, 1.2955

USDJPY - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is developing, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has ended, and a local correction is developing as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 147.5 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 138.32.

Gold - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction develops as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) forms as a momentum. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C of (4) is developing, within which the wave (v) of iii of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAU/USD pair will fall to the area of 1621.9–1515.1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1735.23.