AUDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has developed as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is forming, within which the wave (iii) of v is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.701.

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XAUUSD - Quotes failed to consolidate at the August highs

Gold prices are moderately declining, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The XAU/USD pair failed to consolidate on Tuesday at its local highs of August 30, reacting to the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US.

The downtrend in demand for gold, which began in early August, is still observed. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in the precious metal corrected from 125.8 thousand to 117.7 thousand, thus, the tendency for sellers to reduce their positions continues. "Bears" still hold the lead in market positions, but the number of positions of "bulls" has also significantly adjusted, amounting to 21.925 thousand against 53.688 thousand for sellers. This week, buyers liquidated 0.615 thousand contracts, while sellers liquidated 2.989 thousand.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range widens marginally, following the resumption of "bearish" momentum in the ultra-short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is reversing downwards after a short rise at the end of the last trading week, indicating the risks of the development of "bearish" dynamics in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 1700, 1720, 1730, 1752.87 | Support levels: 1688.5, 1675, 1660.1, 1644.3

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IBM - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) forms, within which the fifth wave 5 of (1) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 is forming, within which the wave (i) of iii has developed, a local correction has ended as the wave (ii) of iii and the wave (iii) of iii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 153.45–160. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 118.84.

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ADAUSD - Candlestick Analysis

H4
The four-hour chart shows the formation of a Bullish Engulfing pattern, which included a reversal candlestick Hammer, as well as the appearance at the level of 0.4718 of the Three Advancing White Soldiers and Hammer patterns. The combination of these patterns signals that the asset has reached the bottom level, where buyers have become active. In the current situation, a scenario with the uptrend to the resistance level of 0.5831 seems likely, overcoming which will open the way for the "bulls" to the area of 0.7820–0.9362. An alternative scenario is likely in case the "bears" break through the key support level of 0.4159, and then the decline may intensify up to the level of 0.2098.

D1
The daily chart shows that the asset has been consolidating for a long time in the range of 0.4159–0.5831, which may indicate a likely upward reversal. In addition, the fact that the asset has reached the area of low prices, where the "bulls" have activated, is also signaled by the formation of Hammer and Inverted Hammer reversal patterns, while another Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern has formed below the level of 0.4718, which included the Inverted Hammer candle. At the moment, the upward dynamics to the level of 0.5831 seems to be the most probable. In case of a breakout of the key resistance level, the asset may recover higher to the area of 0.7820–0.9362.

Support levels: 0.4159, 0.3031, 0.2098 | Resistance levels: 0.5831, 0.7820, 0.9362

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USDCHF - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed, and a local correction has ended as the second wave 2 of (1), within which the wave c of 2 has developed.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will fall within the wave 3 of (1) to the area of 0.92 – 0.8916. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9889.

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EURUSD - Market awaiting ECB interest rate decision

Thus, the Q2 EU economy increased by 0.8%, which exceeded the forecasted 0.6%: gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 4.1% YoY compared to 5.4% in the previous period. Nevertheless, it was higher than preliminary estimates of 3.9%, allowing the European Central Bank to continue tightening monetary policy parameters without fear of a possible recession. At the moment, analysts expect an interest rate hike of 75 basis points from 0.5% to 1.25%, but this forecast was made without considering yesterday's GDP data, which means that the agency can act more aggressively by adjusting the value by 100 basis points.

The American currency did not stay at absolute highs for a long time, and by the end of yesterday's trading fell below 110 in the USD Index and is now trading around 109.7. The main reason for the negative dynamics of the asset was the disappointment of investors in mortgage interest rates: the indicator almost reached an absolute maximum of 6%, amounting to 5.94%, and against this background, demand for mortgages in the United States fell to a minimum in 22 years. The index of the number of mortgage applications fell to 258.1 points from 705.6 points at the beginning of the year, and the downward trend continues.

The trading instrument is moving toward the support line within the global downward channel. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.007, 1.037 | Support levels: 0.9862, 0.965

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American Express - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave 4 of (5). Now, the fifth wave 5 of (5) has started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 5 has formed, and a local correction has ended as the second wave (ii) of i of 5.

If the assumption is correct, the asset will grow to the area of 183.5–199.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 146.38.

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NZDUSD - Candlestick Analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6031, there is a formation of a reversal Bullish Engulfing candlestick analysis pattern, signaling a change in the balance of power towards buyers, as well as a Gravestone Doji pattern, which, as a rule, appears at the top and is reversal. It can also be fixed at the base, but for this it is necessary to obtain additional confirmation. In the current situation, the likely scenario is the growth of the asset to the resistance level of 0.6172, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the range of 0.6453–0.6703. An alternative scenario is likely if the "bears" break through the key support level of 0.6031, and the price may drop to the area of 0.5849–0.5622.

D1
The daily chart shows the formation of two Hammer figures, which are reversal and signal that the price has reached the bottom. In this case, long positions can be opened after overcoming the resistance level of 0.6172, when the "bulls" test it. If the buyers fail to hold the level of 0.6031, the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 0.5622.

Support levels: 0.6031, 0.5849, 0.5622 | Resistance levels: 0.6172, 0.6453, 0.6703

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Shares of eBay, an American online retailer, are trading at 44.

On the daily chart, the price, having left the limits of the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 38 – 45, is kept above it, despite approaching the previously passed resistance level.

On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the attempt to enter a full-fledged correction failed, the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction level at 50 was not broken, and the quotes received a downward impulse, directing them to the year's low at 40.40, which may be reached in the coming days. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

GBPUSD - The instrument is moving within the global downward channel

Investors are evaluating the announcement of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss on the abolition from next month of indexation of electricity bills, which will now not exceed 2.5K pounds a year. She also stated the need to expand the sources of electricity supply through increased oil and gas production in the North Sea. Although households have taken the initiative of the official positively, for the economy as a whole, this may become a new problem since 130 – 150 B pounds annually will need to be allocated to finance such a measure. Some experts suggested that these funds would be raised through government loans, which would then be repaid through gradual tariff increases over two years.

In the UK, national mourning has begun in connection with the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The heir to the throne was her son, Prince Charles of Wales, who will be officially proclaimed King Charles III on September 10. The country may enter a new era of change, and it is not yet known how actively the new monarch will be involved in the state's political affairs.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, reversing towards a local increase. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range narrows slightly, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1652, 1.2 | Support levels: 1.14, 1.115

AUDUSD: consolidation after reaching local highs in August

The AUDUSD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.6830. Investors are trying to predict the situation in the market after many currencies showed a confident upward rally against the US dollar at the end of last week. So, for only one trading session on Friday, September 9, the Australian dollar recovered to the local highs of August 31.

At the same time, traders were disappointed by the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics from China, where, in particular, a decrease in inflation in August by 0.1% from 0.5% last month was recorded, while the growth rate adjusted from 2.7% to 2.5% YoY with preliminary estimates of experts at 2.8%, which is a signal of a slowdown in the national economy.

Following the publication by the analytical company Impact Economics and Policy of information about the inflated costs of post-COVID rehabilitation of citizens in the amount of 3.6B US dollars, the Australian authorities launched a parliamentary inquiry to determine the exact number of people who need medical care after an infection. In particular, according to the information provided, taking into account weekly expenses, which amount to about 100.0M Australian dollars, the losses of the national budget for the year amount to 5.2B Australian dollars. As a result, the authorities will submit a report that will collect expropriated treatments and determine whether those who have been ill will be able to receive payments from the state.

On Thursday, Australian investors are focused on the report on the national labor market for August, and analysts predict an increase in employment by 50.0K after falling by 40.9K last month.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse in the horizontal plane: the price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal and above the signal line. Stochastic shows a confident upward direction, but at the moment, it is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.69, 0.695, 0.7 | Support levels: 0.680, 0.675, 0.67, 0.665

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USDCAD - Candlestick analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, under the resistance level of 1.3214, there is the formation of Hanging man and Shooting star reversal models of candlestick analysis, as well as the appearance of the Three black crows trend continuation pattern at 1.302. At the opening of the trading session, the “bulls” tried unsuccessfully to restore their positions, which is confirmed by the “Bearish” belt hold figure. However, in the current situation, the continuation of the downward dynamics of the asset to the support level of 1.2960 is likely, the breakdown of which allows the “bears” to head lower to the area of 1.2661− 1.2322. If the buyers hold the support level of 1.2960 and the price reverses upwards, the growth to the resistance level of 1.3214 is expected, the breakout of which will become a catalyst for the movement to the area of 1.3412−1.3729.

D1
On the daily chart, under the resistance level of 1.3214, a series of Shooting star and Hanging man reversal candlestick patterns are formed, which signal that the price has reached the local high and the market is under the control of the “bears.” Also, the Three black crows downtrend continuation model has formed, and in this situation, most likely, a further decline in the asset in the range of 1.2960–1.2322 is expected.

Support levels: 1.2960, 1.2661, 1.2322 | Resistance levels: 1.3214, 1.3412, 1.3729