The XAGUSD pair continues its local corrective trend and is now around 18.94.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price of the precious metal is declining within the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries at 20 – 16. After reaching the resistance line at 20.9, the trading instrument reversed and formed another wave of decline. The target could be the global support level of 16.68. On the four-hour chart, the downside potential looks quite high, and if the quotes consolidate below the initial trend level of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension, which coincides with the low of the year at 18.31, there will be no serious support for the price, and the position can be realized.

Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed the first downward bar after moving into the sell zone.

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FTSE 100 - British business activity data disappointed investors

The UK stock market this week will remain focused on today's publication of data on business activity in the leading sectors of the economy. As analysts expected, the slowdown in indicators continued, which in the long term is a negative signal. Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.0 points from 52.1 points, and Services PMI amounted to 52.5 points after 52.6 points recorded in the previous period.

In the corporate segment, the telecommunications company Vodafone Group Plc. sold its Hungarian division 4iG Public Limited. The amount of the deal is estimated at 1.78 billion dollars, and some experts consider it too low. In turn, the UK bond market continues its upward correction: the yield on 10-year government bonds amounted to 2.514%, while the rate on conservative 20-year bonds again reached its June peak at around 2.929%.

Quotes of the index continue to trade within the global side channel, approaching the upper limit. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which has recently begun to weaken: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 7456, 7200 | Resistance levels: 7558, 7693

GBPUSD - the pound tries to recover from record lows

The British pound is showing mixed dynamics, testing 1.1830 for a breakout. The day before, the GBPUSD pair showed a moderate corrective growth, which was partly caused by the depreciation of the US currency in almost the entire spectrum of the market.

Among other things, pressure on dollar quotes was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the US. Thus, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global in August corrected from 52.2 points to 51.3 points, although analysts expected a decrease to only 52 points, and the Services PMI fell sharply from 47.3 points to 44.1 points, while it was expected that the indicator would rise to 49.2 points. However, it should be noted that the British statistics also turned out to be disappointing: the Services PMI in August corrected from 52.1 points to 46.0 points, while the forecast was at the level of 51.1 points.

Investors today are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the results of the symposium in Jackson Hole, which is to be addressed by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The official is expected to give clear signals on the pace of interest rate hikes in September and beyond, as well as comments on the prospects for a recession amid deteriorating energy markets.

Meanwhile, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said most people in the country will not be able to pay their heating bills and even afford food this winter amid record inflation, which has reached 10.1% in annual terms, the highest since 1982. According to Bloomberg analysts, electricity tariffs will reach 4K pounds per month by January next year. The UK Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) may set a price ceiling of around 4.266K pounds in the first months of next year, nearly 0.650K pounds more than the agency's previous forecast.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having retreated from its lows, is trying to recover, indicating the corrective growth development in the near future.

Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1933, 1.2, 1.2054 | Support levels: 1.18, 1.1758, 1.17, 1.165

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EURUSD - The euro against the dollar fell to a record low in 20 years

The EURUSD pair is actively declining, trading around 0.9957. This week, the instrument renewed its 20-year low, consolidating below 0.9950 on the back of continued growth in gas prices, recession risks in the EU, and negative macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, Services PMI in France fell to 51.0 points from 53.2 earlier, Services PMI in Germany fell to 48.2 points from 49.7 points earlier, and the aggregate value for all EU countries dropped to 50. 2 points from 51.2 a month earlier. Business activity in the French manufacturing sector fell to 49.0 points from 49.5 points earlier, in Germany – to 49.8 points, and in the EU – to 49.7 points, down 0.1 points.

By the end of yesterday, the situation changed, and the trading instrument stopped actively falling due to the decline in the US dollar, which began to sell off after the publication of disappointing data on new home sales in the US. Thus, in July, the indicator decreased to 511.0K from 585.0K in June, yielding the forecast of 575.0K. The total drop in sales was 12.6%, the lowest figure since February 2016. Seriously disappointed investors and business activity, which weakened to 44.1 points in the service sector and 51.3 points in the manufacturing sector.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars, falling in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.006, 1.0347 | Support levels: 0.9898, 0.9650

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The price of North American Crude Oil is correcting within the uptrend around 93.32.

Since the beginning of the year, the United States has been actively trying to influence OPEC+, persuading it to increase oil production and thereby reduce fuel prices on the world market. Still, the cartel ignores these requirements, forcing the American authorities to reduce national strategic reserves to the lowest level since 1985 of 453.1M barrels. It, in turn, puts pressure on energy carriers: since the beginning of summer, prices have already fallen by more than 20 dollars, but yesterday, the alliance members again stressed that they could correct their dynamics with their intervention. Thus, the head of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, confirmed that OPEC+ would begin developing a new agreement soon, under which the group intends to reduce production, which will normalize the current situation by reducing volatility. Also, the likely positive decision on the "nuclear deal" with Iran and the entry of cheap oil into the market remains a key factor. Thus, Saudi Arabia once again made it clear that the oil quotes and its supply are under full control, and in case of unforeseen circumstances, the organization is ready to intervene immediately.

Investors perceived this situation with a clear positive, and in the first two days of trading during the week, Crude Oil quotes increased by 8 dollars, reaching 93 again.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price left the limits of the local downwards channel, having consolidated above the resistance line. Technical indicators confirm the high probability of continued corrective growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to actively approach the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new upward bars, approaching the transition level.

Resistance levels: 96, 102.37 | Support levels: 91.33, 85.3

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USDCAD - A fall is possible.

On the weekly chart, the downward correctional wave of the higher level 4 develops, within which the wave (C) of 4 forms. Now, = the third wave 3 of (C) is developing, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3 has formed, and a local correction is ending as the wave (ii) of i of 3.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDCAD pair will fall to the area of 1.201 – 1.1426. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3224.

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GBPUSD - Traders are confident in the acceleration of the pace of rate hikes by the Bank of England

A regular meeting of the Bank of England is scheduled for September 15, at which the issue of further tightening monetary policy will be discussed. Judging by the dynamics of futures, traders expect an increase in interest rates to at least 75.0 basis points from the current 50 points, but a 100 basis point increase is not ruled out. These options became more actively discussed after the price of natural gas on the London Intercontinental Exchange reached 3.1 dollars per thousand cubic meters, which makes imports much more expensive and increases the burden on consumers.

The US dollar retreated somewhat from its highs and is trading at 108.600 in the USD Index. Investors reacted weakly to yesterday's data on durable goods orders, which remained in June, although basic orders rose slightly, adding 0.3%. The US housing market is still experiencing some difficulties, as evidenced by yesterday's data on the index of pending sales: the index fell by 1.0% in July, which indicates a large number of pending transactions.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, falling towards the support line. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the EMA on the Alligator indicator continues to expand in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1883, 1.2219 | Support levels: 1.1717, 1.1452.

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ADAUSD - Price decline may resume

As an additional driver for the asset movement, new challenges are seen with testing a key update of the Cardano Vasil network, which should lead to a significant increase in network performance through the launch of a data pipeline function, expand the use of smart contracts and optimize processes for the growing volume of applications in the DeFi market. Cardano lead developer Adam Dean said on Friday that a serious bug has occurred on the testnet, and nodes 1.35.2 and 1.35.3 are out of sync. He also accused the project management of the extreme rush to launch the fork, which is why the failures occurred. These comments raised concerns among investors that the timeline could be revised again, but on Monday, Ding said the bugs had been consolidated, and the outlook for the update is "better than ever," which supports the ADA/USD pair.

The trading instrument is testing 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8]), 0.5127 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands). The key "bearish" level is 0.4394 (Murrey [2/8]), the breakdown of which allows further decline to 0.4150 (Murrey [1/8]) and 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators reflect a downward trend: Bollinger bands reverse downwards, and the MACD histogram increases in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.4638, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4394, 0.415, 0.3906

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USDCAD - Canadian labor market continues to recover

The Canadian currency is trying to win back losses against the US dollar against the backdrop of positive macroeconomic statistics from the national labor market. Now the USDCAD pair is correcting downwards, trading around 1.2954.

As Statistics Canada reported yesterday, employment in the service sector rose by 0.6% in June, and almost all areas showed positive dynamics: education, the indicator added 1.9%, food – 1.3%, and healthcare – by 0.4 %. During this period, the total number of vacancies increased by 3.2%, which means the appearance for the third consecutive month of more than 1.0M additional unfilled positions and, as a result, an increase in demand for labor by 1.4% compared to May of this year – to 17.7M. The most demanded are still specialists in the healthcare sector, where the rate of posted vacancies rose by 40.8% YoY and by 0.2% MoM. These data indicate that the Canadian labor market is starting to grow rapidly, which will undoubtedly positively impact the national economy.

On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200 towards the support line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3222 | Support levels: 1.2893, 1.2727

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Crude Oil - The price is in a correction; a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C ended, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave a of 2 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of a has formed, and a local correction is developing as the fourth wave (iv) of a.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price of the asset will fall to the area of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 103.55.

Silver - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is developing, within which the wave (i) of i has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave (ii) of i.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 22.47 – 25.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.05.

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Digital gold under pressure after Jerome Powell's speech

The reason for the weakening of "digital gold" and, with it, the majority of alternative digital assets was the Friday comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At the Jackson Hole symposium, the official said the regulator would continue to adjust interest rates even as they put pressure on economic growth. At the same time, he noted that the increase cycle could not be stopped or slowed down, although inflation could already have reached its peak. After the indicator approaches the level necessary for a sustained downward movement in consumer prices, it will linger in this area for a while and not go down. Powell's position did not live up to the expectations of investors who were counting on the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening in the US after the July rollback of inflation from 9.1% to 8.5%. The US Federal Reserve will continue raising rates, and the US currency will continue to receive serious support, strengthening against its main competitors.

In general, the forecast of Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, who previously noted that the cryptocurrency market would remain under pressure for the entire period of tightening monetary policy in the United States, is justified.

Currently, the trading instrument is close to 19531 (Murrey [1/8]), a downward breakdown of which will give the prospect of further decline to 18750 (Murrey [0/8]) and 17800 (the area of June lows). Bollinger bands downward reversal and MACD histogram increase in the negative zone indicate the continuation of the short-term downward trend, while Stochastic reversal in the oversold zone does not rule out corrective growth to 21093 (Murrey [3/8]), although its potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 20312, 21093, 21875 | Support levels: 19531, 18750, 17800

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