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Silver - Growth is possible.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed, and the third wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (i) of I is developing.
If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the area of 22.47 – 25.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 19.5.
EURJPY Technical Analysis
Despite the EURJPY pair’s trading within the bullish channel, the contradiction between the major indicators and the attempt to fluctuate below 136.60 level will postpone the bullish attack for now, to start suggesting the correctional negative trades that might target 135.50 and 134.40 levels. On the other hand, renewing the bullish attempts requires forming new bullish rally to manage to hold above 137.55 and open the way to target the positive stations near 138.60 and 139.70 levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 136.80 and 135.50
BTC USD - short-term price correction possible
The main driver of positive dynamics was the July data on US inflation: a slowdown in its growth to 8.5% made many investors hope that the peak of consumer price growth in the country has passed, and the indicator will now begin to move towards the target level of 2.0%, which may force the US Federal Reserve to abandon a sharp rate hike of 75 or 100 percentage points at the next meetings. It, in turn, became a catalyst for the active decline of the dollar against its main competitors. Also, the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) proof algorithm, scheduled for mid-September, arouses the interest of traders in the entire cryptocurrency market and “digital gold” in particular.
The price has rolled back down and not consolidated above 25000. Judging by the reversal of Stochastic near the overbought zone, the decline may continue to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 23650, and in case the quotes consolidate below it and 23437.5, return to 21875. Otherwise, growth will resume towards 25000, 26562.5, and 28125.
Resistance levels: 25000, 26562.5, 28125 | Support levels: 23437.5, 21875, 20312
NZDUSD - Inflation in New Zealand remains high
On Friday, Stats NZ published a report on food prices, which rose by 7.4% in July in annual terms. Among the key categories of price increases are: basic food products (+7.5%), restaurant meals (+6.6%), fruits and vegetables (+10.0%), meat and fish (+7.7%) and non-alcoholic drinks (+4.6%). On a monthly basis, the growth in food inflation amounted to 2.1%, and the fact that the negative dynamics is recorded taking into account lower energy prices indicates that the measures taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are not enough yet.
Quotes of NZDUSD continue to trade within the global downtrend, gradually approaching the resistance line.
Support levels: 0.6360, 0.6211 | Resistance levels: 0.6470, 0.6670
GBPUSD - The UK economy is rapidly slowing down
The pound failed to continue active growth after the publication of poor macroeconomic data on Friday: the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) in July fell by 0.6% compared to the previous month, although in June, it showed a positive trend of 0.4%. The indicator declined by 0.1% in the second quarter, slowing down the value to 2.9% YoY from 8.7% a quarter earlier. Also to GDP, a significant weakening was recorded in the leading sectors of the economy: the volume of industrial production fell by 0.9%, and the volume of production in the manufacturing industry decreased by 1.6%. However, this is the first quarter when GDP is negative, which means formally a recession in the UK economy is not yet.
The pair continues to trade within the global downward channel, coming close to the resistance line, indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buy zone.
Resistance levels: 1.2240, 1.2630 | Support levels: 1.2048, 1.1761
GBPUSD - Growth is possible
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the third upward the wave (3) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) has started, and a local correction is developing as the second wave (ii) of i.
If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the GBPUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.239 – 1.2674. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.176.
NZDUSD - Technical analysis
On the four-hour chart, at the resistance level of 0.6453, there is the formation of an Evening Doji Star reversal candlestick pattern, as well as a Three Black Crows pattern, which included a Bear Marubozu candlestick. The combination of these figures indicates pressure on the price from sellers and indicates a continuation of the downtrend with the target of 0.6279, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to continue moving to the area of 0.6107–0.5944. An alternative scenario can be realized if the quotes consolidate above 0.6453; then the asset will be able to restore its positions in the range of 0.6598–0.6748.
After the uptrend on the daily chart at the level of 0.6453, a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern appeared, which signals an imminent price reversal, and there is also a red long Engulfing reversal candle, warning the "bulls" of the upcoming trend change. In this situation, it is more likely that the quotes will fall to the support level of 0.6279, consolidation below which will allow the "bears" to head to the area of 0.5944.
Support levels: 0.6279, 0.6107, 0.5944 | Resistance levels: 0.6453, 0.6598, 0.6748
EURUSD - Growth is possible.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level ended as the wave (B), within which the wave C of (B) formed, and the upward wave (C) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (C) is developing, within which the wave i of (i) has formed, and the local correction is developing as the wave ii of (i).
If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the EURUSD pair will grow to the area of 1.0612 – 1.0787. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.
USDJPY - Japan's economy grew in the second quarter
The yen continues to resist the recovery of the dollar, but at yesterday's trading retreated somewhat from its local highs after the publication of macroeconomic statistics. Japan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) added 0.5% in the second quarter, compared to a 0.6% growth forecast, and grew 2.2% year-on-year, also slower than the 2.5% expected by analysts. Nevertheless, experts assessed the released data positively, as the Japanese economy became one of the few that showed positive dynamics in the second quarter of 2022. The outlook for the future, however, is negative due to the new coronavirus outbreak and higher commodity prices. In addition to GDP, Consumer Spending also rose, adding 1.1% in the second quarter after rising 0.1% in the previous period. The main positive moment of the report was the data on the volume of Industrial Production, which grew by 9.2% in July, despite the fact that analysts expected a reduction of 7.5%.
USDJPY is trading within the global uptrend, being at the support line. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal, which has recently intensified: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is still wide and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars, being in the sales area.
Support levels: 131.57, 126.8 | Resistance levels: 134.97, 138.95
Crude Oil - Reports of a reduction in oil exports from the Russian Federation lead to lower prices
According to Bloomberg, in general, the volume of "black gold" transported by sea from Russia decreased to 3.24 million barrels per day from 3.32 million barrels per day, and exports to Asian countries decreased to 1.75 million barrels per day from 2.1 million barrels per day earlier. First of all, experts attribute the decline in imports to Asian countries' purchases of about 16.0 million barrels of cheaper American oil, which turned out to be much more profitable for them than the new proposal from Saudi Arabia, which significantly increased selling prices at the beginning of the month, adding a premium of 10.8 dollars per barrel.
On the weekly chart of the asset, the price remains within the local descending channel, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a clear sell signal, which excludes the possibility of a reversal of quotes: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, is forming new descending bars.
Support levels: 92.1, 85.6 | Resistance levels: 96.35, 105.23
Nasdaq 100 - the US stock market recovers
Yesterday, the chief executive officer of investment fund Third Point LLC announced the buyout of a substantial stake in entertainment company The Walt Disney Co. and plans to discuss strategic changes with its management, as a result of which the papers of the corporation began to grow actively. Another leader in the information background is the manufacturer of electric vehicles Tesla Inc., whose head Elon Musk is preparing to appear in court and argue his refusal to purchase the social network Twitter Inc. Already, the businessman is trying to form a positive fundamental background around his company so that if a decision is made in favor of the plaintiff, he will be able to pay penalties. In particular, he said that Tesla Inc. has already produced more than 1.0M vehicles at the new plant in Shanghai, which was the reason for the growth of its stock quotations by more than 3.0%.
The trading instrument continues its positive dynamics, leaving the limits of the downwards channel. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is steadily rising in the buying zone.
Resistance levels: 13891, 15148 | Support levels: 13318, 12574
USDJPY - Technical analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart, the quotes of USDJPY are moving in an uptrend channel. After a false breakout of its lower border at the level of 132.54, a Hammer reversal pattern is formed. Next, a Three Advancing White Soldiers pattern was formed, signaling the continuation of the uptrend; however, the emerging Long-Legged Doji pattern warns market participants about the existing uncertainty and signals a possible downward reversal. In this situation, a likely scenario may be a decrease in the quotes of the trading instrument to the support level of 132.54, consolidation of the price below which will allow the "bears" to go lower, to the area of 130.45–126.78. An alternative scenario can be realized if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 135.39. Then the quotes may recover to the range of 136.85 – 139.46.
D1
On the daily chart, at the resistance level of 135.39, there is the formation of a Tower Top candlestick analysis pattern, which is formed in the area of high prices and is a downward reversal pattern. At the moment, the price is moving in an uptrend; however, a possible scenario could be that it overcomes the lower border of the trend channel and consolidates below the level of 132.54, which will strengthen the downtrend to the area of 130.45 – 126.78.
Support levels: 132.54, 130.45, 126.78 | Resistance levels: 135.39, 136.85, 139.46
USDCHF - A fall is possible.
On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 3 is forming.
If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will fall to the area of 0.8916 – 0.8730. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9647.
GBPUSD - Trading instrument is preparing to continue to decline
After an unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.2262, the GBP/USD pair fell to the level of 1.2020 and is now preparing to continue its downtrend against the background of increasing inflationary pressure in the UK. Data on the Consumer Price Index were published the day before, which in annual terms amounted to 10.1% against the projected 9.8%, and in monthly terms it amounted to 0.6%, while market expectations were at the level of 0.4%. Thus, despite the aggressive increase in interest rates by the Bank of England, officials have not yet been able to contain inflation. Probably, at the next meeting of the regulator, scheduled for September 15, the value will be adjusted again, but the effectiveness of this measure remains in question.
The long-term trend is downward. Yesterday, market participants attempted to break through the support level of 1.2020, but failed to do so the first time. If successful, the decline in quotes of the trading instrument will continue with the target at the July low of 1.1768.
The medium-term trend is upward. The growth target is the zone of 1.2448–1.2415; however, as part of the correction, the quotes may test the key trend support at 1.1932–1.1896, after which traders should consider long positions with the first target at last week's high at 1.2270.
Resistance levels: 1.2262, 1.2655 | Support levels: 1.2020, 1.1768.
USDCAD - Technical analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart, a Bullish Flag price pattern is forming, the completion of which is expected above the resistance level of 1.2960, since the breakout of its upper border was carried out by impulsive green candles in the form of a Three Advancing White Soldiers pattern. However, the movement slowed down with the appearance of a Hanging Man reversal candlestick pattern below the level of 1.2960, which is observed in the area of prevailing "bullish" activity. Therefore, to confirm a reversal at the local top, the formation of other "bearish" signals is required. Since the asset continued to grow after the formation of this pattern, one can assume that the quotes will continue their uptrend or consolidation in a narrow range of 1.2900–1.2960. If the "bulls" manage to successfully overcome the level of 1.2960 and consolidate above it, one should expect the quotes to continue moving towards the area of 1.3228–1.3630. An alternative scenario is possible in case of overcoming the support level of 1.2762 by the "bears". Then the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 1.2295.
D1
On the daily chart, there is a Falling Wedge price pattern. At the moment, it is clear that the price has broken through its upper limit, but confirmation of this has not yet been received. In addition, at the support level of 1.2762, one of the varieties of the Morning Star candlestick pattern has formed, which indicates the prevailing "bullish" sentiment. In case of successful testing of the broken level and fixing the price above 1.2960, the quotes will most likely go higher, to the area of 1.3228–1.3630.
Support levels: 1.2762, 1.2534, 1.2295 | Resistance levels: 1.296, 1.3228, 1.363
XAUUSD - Investor demand for gold is actively increasing
The XAUUSD pair is correcting in a downtrend at 1764 amid strengthening US dollar positions: the quotes rose from 105.3 to 106.6 in the USD Index due to several factors, including confirmation of the US Federal Reserve's plans to tighten monetary policy. Thus, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), published yesterday, outlined the department's plans for September, which include raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points to combat record inflation.
Another factor in the local downward dynamics of gold was data on industrial production in China: the figure was 3.8%, which is lower than 3.9% a month earlier and significantly lower than 4.6% expected by analysts, which confirmed investors' fears about the stability of the economy of one of the largest importers and producers of precious metals.
On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is above the resistance line of the global downward channel with dynamic boundaries 1780 – 1650. Despite the local slowdown, technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving above the signal line, while the AO oscillator histogram remains in the buy zone.
Resistance levels: 1782, 1847 | Support levels: 1753, 1696
GBPUSD - UK inflation tops 10%
The pound continues to lose positions against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic data and at the moment GBPUSD is correcting around 1.2039. Consumer inflation in the UK, the first among developed countries, exceeded the 10% threshold and amounted to 10.1%, rising from 9.4% a month earlier, with a monthly increase of only 0.6%. Even more worrisome is the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy, climbing to 6.2% from 5.8%, catalysing the Bank of England to be more "hawkish" in terms of monetary tightening.
In turn, the US dollar is holding above 106 in the USD Index, sagging slightly after yesterday's US Retail Sales data. The index in July fell to 0.0% from 0.8% in the previous month, which disappointed analysts who had expected a rise of 1.0%. Obviously, the continuing decline in Retail Sales is a direct consequence of rising prices, which the US Federal Reserve is unable to seriously influence. The Core Retail Sales Index, in turn, also slowed to 0.4% from 0.9% a month earlier.
GBPUSD continues to trade within the global downward channel, retreating somewhat from the resistance line. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal for the start of sales: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations is expanding in the direction of decline, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.
Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1756 | Resistance levels: 1.2218, 1.2588
AUDUSD - Technical analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart, under the resistance level of 0.7030, a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern was formed, after which the trading instrument showed a decrease to the area of 0.6912. In addition, the Bear Marubozu pattern was included in this model, emphasizing the predominance of sellers. Currently, quotes have formed a Hanging Man figure, which in this situation may mean a continuation of the downtrend. A likely scenario is a decline to the support level of 0.6862, overcoming which will allow the "bears" to go lower, to the levels of 0.6680, 0.6420. An alternative scenario can be realized if the "bulls" hold their positions and the quotes recover to the resistance level: a breakout of the key level of 0.7030 will open the way for buyers to the range of 0.7184–0.7400.
D1
On the daily chart, under the resistance level of 0.7184, a reversal candlestick pattern Evening Doji Star is observed, after which the asset began to decline down to the level of 0.6912. This pattern is a strong signal to alert traders to declining long positions, giving the "bears" an opportunity to correct the price down. A more likely scenario at the moment is a downtrend towards the key support level of 0.6862. A breakdown of this level will mean the final weakening of the "bulls", which will strengthen the downtrend of the instrument to the zone of 0.6680–0.6420.
Support levels: 0.6862, 0.668, 0.642 | Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7184, 0.74
USDCAD - Canada loses revenue due to lower export fuel prices
The Canadian currency lost its leading position against the US dollar amid a decline in revenues received by the country from energy exports. According to Statistics Canada, the Commodity Price Index lost 7.4% in July. Similar dynamics led to inflation adjusting to 7.6% from 8.1%, but food prices, which are the second key component of the indicator, continued to rise, adding 0.9% in July. This movement is clearly seen in the calculation of Core CPI, excluding Food and Energy prices: the figure corrected to 6.6% from 6.5% a month earlier, and is now the main problem for the Bank of Canada.
In turn, the US dollar continues to grow, the day before exceeding 107 in the USD Index. The main reason for the positive dynamics was the report on Initial Jobless Claims, which for the first time in a long time showed a decrease in the number of applications to 250 thousand after 252 thousand recorded a week earlier, while analysts expected an increase in the number of applications to 265 thousand.
On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is trading within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200, rising again towards the resistance line. The EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator signals a possible growth, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new rising bars, being in the sell zone.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2739 | Resistance levels: 1.2985, 1.3133
USDCHF - Growth after the release of positive statistics from the US
The situation in the Swiss economy is relatively stable: the labor market is showing strength, which is confirmed by data from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Thus, the number of employed in the second quarter increased by 1.6% compared to last year, and the number of hours worked per week increased by 3.0%, while the unemployment rate calculated by the International Labor Organization was 4.1%, having decreased from 5% a year earlier.
On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the downwards Triangle pattern, preparing to continue the decline. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming up bars in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 0.9620, 0.9816 | Support levels: 0.9553, 0.9408
The EURUSD pair is trading in a downtrend, currently at 1.003.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the global corridor with dynamic boundaries 1.024 – 0.97, getting ready to test the key historical support around 1. The four-hour chart shows that the potential for a downward movement is quite high, and the nearest solid support for the trading instrument can only be the initial trend of 61.8% of the Fibonacci extension around 0.9814. If the quotes fix below it, the downward dynamics may continue up to the basic trend of 100.0% on the Fibonacci extension around 0.9494.
Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.
NZDUSD - Technical analysis
H4
On the four-hour chart, there is the formation of a Three Black Crows candlestick analysis pattern, which means a continuation of the downtrend. In addition, under the resistance level of 0.6239, another Three Black Crows figure appeared, which confirms the previous pattern and emphasizes the strength of the "bears". However, at the moment, one can see the construction of the Morning Star reversal pattern above the level of 0.6152, which means that a strong support line has formed at the current level, where buyers have activated, but in order to fully confirm the reversal, the "bulls" should consolidate above the resistance level of 0.6239. In this case, the asset can restore positions to the zone of 0.6362 – 0.6475. If the trading instrument reaches the key support level of 0.6102 and consolidates below it, one should expect further downward movement to the range of 0.5929 – 0.5785.
D1
On the daily chart, at the level of 0.6362, there is the formation of a Hanging Man reversal pattern, after which the asset showed a decrease to the level of 0.6189. In addition, the movement was accompanied by the formation of the Three Black Crows candlestick analysis model, which included the Shooting Star candlestick. The combination of these figures may mean a continuation of the negative dynamics for the instrument after a short-term price rebound. It is likely that the NZD/USD pair will continue to lose positions after an upward correction to 0.6239, thus testing the broken down level, overcoming which will allow quotes to reach the area of 0.6102, where the buying zone is concentrated. If the "bulls" fail to hold this level, the asset may fall down to the level of 0.5785.
Support levels: 0.6102, 0.5929, 0.5785 | Resistance levels: 0.6239, 0.6362, 0.6475
The EURUSD pair is trading in a downtrend, currently at 1.003.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the global corridor with dynamic boundaries 1.024 – 0.97, getting ready to test the key historical support around 1. The four-hour chart shows that the potential for a downward movement is quite high, and the nearest solid support for the trading instrument can only be the initial trend of 61.8% of the Fibonacci extension around 0.9814. If the quotes fix below it, the downward dynamics may continue up to the basic trend of 100.0% on the Fibonacci extension around 0.9494.
Technical indicators keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.
Against the background of the growth of the American currency, the GBPUSD pair is correcting around 1.1826.
On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the long-term channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.14 – 1.214, preparing to test the year's low at 1.1741. The four-hour chart shows that the year's low coincides with the initial trend of 61.8% on the Fibonacci extension (1.1741), and in the case of consolidation below it, the downward movement may continue and reach the basic trend of 100% on the Fibonacci extension around 1.1400, which corresponds to the support line of the downward channel.
Technical indicators confirm the high probability of a downward trend and keep a sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.
AUDUSD, H4
On the four-hour chart, above the level of 0.6846, there is a formation of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which may warn market participants that the asset is in the area of low prices and will soon begin to unfold. In addition, a Doji pattern was formed, signaling the uncertainty in the market and the equality of the forces of "bulls" and "bears". This pattern usually indicates reversals in the instrument; however, it requires additional "bullish" confirmation in the local basis. Thus, at the moment, it is most likely that the quotes of the AUD/USD pair will fall to the support level of 0.6846, overcoming which will open the way for the "bears" to the zone of 0.6680 – 0.6401. An alternative scenario is possible after fixing the quotes of the trading instrument above the resistance level of 0.7031 with the targets at 0.7184 – 0.7392.
AUDUSD, D1
On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Bear Marubozu candlestick analysis pattern, which emphasizes the strength of sellers, as well as the formation of a Three Black Crows figure under the resistance level of 0.7031, which also signals a continuation of the downtrend. Currently, the asset is most likely forming a Falling Three Methods pattern, which is a continuation of the trend and warns that quotes may continue to move down. More likely is a scenario with a downtrend to the level of 0.6846, the overcoming of which will allow sellers to strengthen the movement up to the level of 0.6401.
Support levels: 0.6846, 0.6680, 0.6401 | Resistance levels: 0.7031, 0.7184, 0.7392
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