Intel, the price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (iv) of iii the price will fall to the levels of 31.5 - 24.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 48.95.

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Stocks of Meta Platforms, which owns Facebook, the world's largest social network, continue to trade in a corrective trend and are around the 160 mark. At the end of last week, the results of almost a decade of the company's activity were finally summed up. The last thing that connected Meta Platforms Inc. with the previous name was its stock ticker FB, which has now also changed to META and is already used in trading on the Nasdaq exchange. It should be noted that the rebranding did not contribute to improving the financial situation of the company. Since the beginning of 2022, the shares have fallen by 51.4%, and there are no prerequisites for a trend change yet. Previously, the Ministry of Digital Information of the Russian Federation published statistics according to which Meta Platforms Inc. lost about 80% of its traffic on social networks Facebook and Instagram due to blocking in the country. Through dedicated VPN channels, services are now visited by only 10%-12% of the volume recorded before blocking.

As for the global state, the financial report for Q2 will be published in July, which may reflect revenue of 29.29B dollars and earnings per share of 2.63 dollars, which is even inferior to the 2.72 dollars shown in Q1.   

The price is trading in a global downtrend and on the eve set a new low of the year at around 160. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable sell signal: the fast EMAs of the alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the sales zone, forms descending bars.

Support levels: 155, 130 | Resistance levels: 175, 211

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Crude Oil - The price may fall.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 82.3 – 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 123.8.

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Netflix - The price may grow.

If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 326.97 – 397. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 163.03.

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Crude Oil: prices are recovering after a sharp decline last week
Quotations are supported by data indicating growing imports of oil and oil products from China. According to the report of the General Administration of Customs of China, "black gold" from Russia is sent to the country both by sea and through the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean pipeline. In May, deliveries reached 1.98 million barrels per day, which was a record value, exceeding the April figure by a quarter, while for liquefied gas this figure was fixed at around 400 thousand tons, adding 56% compared to May 2021. Analysts note that the discount policy adopted by Russian officials against the backdrop of sanctions imposed after the start of the military conflict in Ukraine contributes to the increase in imports.

Investors expect that the recovery of the Chinese economy will contribute to a further increase in demand for petroleum products, which will support prices at current levels or contribute to their growth. In turn, fears about possible interruptions in Russian supplies to Western countries still persist. By the end of this year, the EU intends to significantly reduce the volume of imports of oil from the Russian Federation, and then to find alternative sources altogether.

In the near future, investors expect the publication of statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of "black gold" reserves for the week ended June 17. The previous report showed a weak increase of 0.736 million barrels, which, however, put additional pressure on the quotes.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is expanding, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is testing the zero level for a breakdown. Stochastic, having approached the level of "20", reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the growing risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 114.09, 116, 120, 123.24 | Support levels: 112, 109, 106, 102.57

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USDJPY - The probability of a downward correction remains
The USD JPY pair is trading around 135.11. The asset failed to break the resistance level of 135.5, which suggests the development of a downward correction. Last Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged at –0.10%. Earlier, representatives of the regulator have repeatedly announced their intention to adhere to the course of ultra-soft monetary policy to increase household spending and stabilize the labor market. Now the focus of investors is on the minutes of the meeting on the monetary policy of the central bank, which will be published on Wednesday. Considering the latest changes, inflation in Japan was 2.5% YoY, and the base indicator reached 2.1%, which is above the target level of 2.0%. Traders want to know how long the current approach to monetary policy will last and when to expect a move to tighten.

As for the US dollar, the likelihood of its appreciation remains against the backdrop of the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve. On Friday, the department's chairman, Jerome Powell, reaffirmed his determination to contain inflation, which peaked in the last 40 years, and declared his readiness to continue adjusting interest rates further.

After the technical correction, the next target for the USD JPY pair quotes will be 139 and 141.

The long-term trend is upwards. Now the price is trading below the resistance level of 135.5, which implies the possibility of opening short positions with the target at 131.4 but in case of its breakout, the positive dynamics will continue to 139.

The medium-term trend remains upwards. Last week, traders unsuccessfully tested the key trend support 131.63–131.29, as a result of which an increase in the number of open long positions was recorded, the target of which is to renew the high of the last week and then move to zone 3 (137.09–136.72).

Resistance levels: 135.5, 139, 141 | Support levels: 131.4, 126.5, 124.08

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ETH USD - Murray analysis
The ETHUSD pair continues to trade within a wide descending channel and last week fell to its lower border in the area of the lowest values since December 2020 at 880.

Currently, the price is making an attempt to grow, but for a serious recovery it needs to break above the level of 1562.5 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement of 23.6%, Murray [1/8]). In this case, the movement will continue to the levels of 1875 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%, Murray [2/8]) and 2187.5 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%, Murray [3/8], the upper line of the Bollinger Bands). The key for the "bears" remains the level of 937.50 (Murray [-1/8]), at the breakdown of which the downward dynamics will continue to the area of 625.00 (Murray [-1/8]), 500. The current downward trend persists: the Bollinger Bands have reversed downwards, while the Stochastic is directed upwards, and the MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone, which creates the probability of a corrective growth, but is unlikely to lead to a reversal of the current trend.

Resistance levels: 1562.5, 1875, 2187.5 | Support levels: 937.5, 625, 500

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AUD USD - Technical analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart above the level of 0.6901 there is a "bullish" Engulfing Pattern, which signals a price reversal at the bottom, as well as a Bullish Belt Hold pattern, explaining that the buyers attempted to counterattack, but the "bears" seized the initiative, which became a driver for the decline in instrument quotes. At the moment, the most likely scenario is with an uptrend from the support level of 0.6841 to the resistance area of 0.7048, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to move higher into the range of 0.7270–0.7581. An alternative scenario may be relevant if the buyers fail to hold the support level of 0.6841: then the price may fall down to the level of 0.6539.

D1
On the daily chart, there is a formation of a Double Bottom price pattern. An additional signal for a reversal may be the formation of a large Bullish Candle above the support level of 0.6841, which is also a Bullish Belt Hold pattern. Next is the formation of another Bullish Belt Hold pattern, which is similar to the Piercing Pattern of the reversal at the bottom. In the current situation, it is possible to retest the level of 0.6841, from where the instrument may bounce to the resistance level of 0.7048, with its subsequent overcoming and the price recovering to the zone of 0.7270–0.7581.

Support levels: 0.6841, 0.6693, 0.6539 | Resistance levels: 0.7048, 0.7270, 0.7581

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NZD USD - New Zealand dollar remains under pressure
The New Zealand dollar is actively falling during morning trading, testing the level of 0.6265 for a breakdown. NZD USD is updating local lows from June 16, reacting to the recovery in demand for the "safe" US dollar, as well as to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation after the Lithuanian authorities announced restrictions on the transit of Russian goods to the territory of Kaliningrad.

Additional pressure on the positions of the trading instrument was exerted by rather weak macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. Westpac Consumer Survey in Q2 2022 fell from 92.1 to 78.7 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 100 points. Global Dairy Trade index declined 1.3% after gaining 1.5% in the prior period, with only a 0.1% downward correction forecast. The volume of Exports from New Zealand in May rose from 6.16 billion to 6.95 billion dollars; however, against the backdrop of an increase in imports from 5.72 billion to 6.69 billion dollars, the trade deficit in May only increased from –9.29 billion to –9.52 billion dollars.

Resistance levels: 0.63, 0.635, 0.64, 0.645 | Support levels: 0.6244, 0.62, 0.6156, 0.61

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Nasdaq 100 - Murray analysis
The Nasdaq 100 index continues to move within the long-term downward channel. This week, the price tried to start a corrective growth, having reversed around the level of 11250 ([2/8]), but in the end all the positions won were lost.

The reversal level of 11250.0 is still the key for the "bears". Its breakdown will give the prospect of further decline to the lower limit of the Murray trading range in the area of 10000 ([0/8]). When the level of 11875 ([3/8]) and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands break out (12090), quotes will be able to continue growing within the central Murray channel to the level of 13125 ([5/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, the Stochastic is directed upwards. 

Resistance levels: 12090, 12500, 13125 | Support levels: 11250, 10625, 10000

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GBPUSD - UK inflation hits 40-year high
The British pound is trading with multidirectional dynamics against the US currency, consolidating near the level of 1.2260. The day before, GBP/USD also closed with a minimal deviation from the opening levels of the daily session.

Investors are evaluating macroeconomic data from the Office for National Statistics, released yesterday, which reflected an increase in consumer price growth in May: the figure reached 9.1%, which is a record since 1982. The negative dynamics is due to the rapid increase in tariffs for electricity and raw materials in general, which have set a high since 1985, adding 22.1% to the cost against the background of the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the monthly inflation rate slowed down from 2.5% to 0.7%, and the Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.2% to 5.9%, which turned out to be even slightly better than market forecasts of a reduction to 6.0%. In turn, the Retail Price Index in May showed an increase of 11.7%, accelerating from 11.1%, while the forecasts suggested an increase of only up to 11.4%; on a monthly basis, the indicator slowed down from 3.4% to 0.7%, while the market expected a decline to 0.5%. At the same time, according to officials of the Bank of England, consumer price growth may reach 11% by October, exacerbating the crisis in the cost of living for British families. An increase in the interest rate for the fifth time in a row to 1.25% has not yet had the desired effect on the economy, only increasing the risks of a recession. In turn, inflation, taking into account the costs of homeowners for housing maintenance, increased to 7.9% from 7.8% a month earlier.

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of statistics on business activity from S&P Global for June. Forecasts suggest that Manufacturing PMI will show a decrease from 54.6 to 53.7 points.

Resistance levels: 1.2328, 1.2400, 1.2457, 1.25 | Support levels: 1.2250, 1.2163, 1.2074, 1.2

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