GBP/USD: the pound retreats from local highs 29.12.2021 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound is trading in different directions during the morning session, consolidating around 1.3400. Activity during the last trading week of the year remains low, as investors are in no hurry to open new positions on the eve of the New Year holidays, while the news and macroeconomic background are not very informative at the moment.

The macroeconomic statistics released the day before from the United States turned out to be ambiguous, but still contributed to the short-term strengthening of the American currency. The Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ended December 24 showed an increase from 16.4% to 21.4%, and the October Home Price Index strengthened by 1.1% from 0.9% in September, while preliminary estimates analysts were in the area of 1.2%. The S&P/CaseShiller House Price Index for the same period increased by 18.4%, slowing the upward dynamics from the previous indicator of 19.1%. Finally, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing PMI in December rose moderately from 12 to 16 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands show a stable increase in D1 chart. The price range expands from above, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD is also showing an uptrend, maintaining a strong buy signal, being located above the signal line. Stochastic, having approached its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600.
Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3460 with the target at 1.3550. Stop-loss – 1.3400. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The return of a "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 1.3400 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.3300. Stop loss – 1.3460.

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USD/JPY: low trading activity – a catalyst for price strengthening 03.01.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The Japanese currency continued its upward trading dynamics after the start of today's session, and this week, the USD/JPY pair may start testing the global maximum of last year at 115.50. Instrument quotes are going up against the background of the lack of resistance from the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the epidemiological situation in Japan remains difficult. In his recent address to the nation, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that the restriction on the entry of foreign nationals into the country would be extended indefinitely. Therefore, the manufacturing sector, which is experiencing an acute labor shortage, could stop its recovery altogether. Tomorrow, Manufacturing PMI for December will be published, after which experts will have the opportunity to assess the negative impact of the new restrictive measures on the indicators. Analysts expect the index to fall to 54.2 points from 54.5 points a month earlier.

The low trading volatility keeps the USD Index at the levels of the end of last year, around 96 points. JOLTS labor market data for November is due tomorrow, and analysts say US job growth will continue, surpassing the 11.033M recorded a month earlier. Also, traders should pay attention to Manufacturing PMI for December, which may significantly decrease from 61.1 points to 60.2 points.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument continues to correct, approaching the global high of the year. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new upward bars in the buy zone.

Support levels: 114.47, 112.71.
Resistance levels: 115.53, 116.70.

Trading tips

After growth or consolidation above the global year's maximum at 115.53, buy positions with the target at 116.70 are relevant. Stop loss – 115.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

After reversal and decline, or consolidation below 114.47, sell positions with the target at 112.71 are relevant. Stop loss – 115.00.

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Brent Crude Oil: growth amid fears of production cuts 07.01.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on Brent Crude Oil for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Benchmark Brent crude oil continues to rally around 82.25 amid investor concerns over disruptions in energy supplies from Kazakhstan.

The situation in the country remains tense. Residents of the oil-producing Mangystau region went to peaceful rallies against the increase in tariffs for liquefied gas, which then escalated into serious violations of public order. Experts fear that this could hinder oil production, the volume of which in the country currently stands at 1.6M barrels per day. Production activity at the Tengiz oil and gas field in the Atyrau region of Kazakhstan, which produces 650K barrels per day, continues as usual, despite the fact that some employees of subcontractors supported the protesters. In the meantime, an adjustment in the production of "black gold" is expected in Libya, where the pipeline is currently being repaired (the reduction may be from 200K to 500K barrels per day).

Also worth noting is the decline in weekly stocks in the US by 2.144M barrels, according to the national Energy Information Agency (EIA). Analysts had expected a 3.283M barrels cut, roughly in line with last week's -3.576M barrels. At the same time, a significant increase in gasoline reserves was recorded, which amounted to 10.128M barrels after falling by 1.458M last week. Analysts attribute the current dynamics to the population's refusal to travel during the Christmas holidays.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the asset continues to increase as part of the correction. Technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal: the fluctuation range of the Alligator EMA is expanding and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the buy zone, forms bars with an uptrend.

Support levels: 79.80, 71.57.
Resistance levels: 84.37, 88.00.

Trading tips

If the asset continues corrective growth and the price consolidates above the local resistance level of 84.37, long positions will be relevant with target at 88.00. Stop-loss – 83.00. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

If the asset reverses and continues to decline and the price consolidates below the local low at 79.80, short positions can be opened with the target at 71.57. Stop-loss – 82.00.

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GBP/USD: the pound is updating November highs 12.01.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pound is trading upward against the US currency during the morning session, renewing new local highs from November 4 and testing 1.3645 for a breakout.

Significant support for the instrument is still provided by the expectations of a further increase in interest rates from the Bank of England, which is still ahead of the US Fed, having adjusted its monetary policy in December. In addition, investors are positive about the success of the British government in overcoming the next wave of coronavirus. The country has managed to avoid the return of large-scale restrictions, while, despite high incidence rates, the UK has not faced an overload of the health care system due to high herd immunity and low fatality of the Omicron strain.

But the macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday left much to be desired. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales fell sharply from 1.8% to 0.6%, which turned out to be worse than analysts' average forecasts. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on the dynamics of GDP and industrial production in November.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating strongly overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800.
Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3460.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3650 with the target at 1.3750. Stop-loss – 1.3600. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 1.3650 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.3600 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.3500. Stop-loss – 1.3650.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: glossary

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GBP/USD: the pound retreated from its local highs for a short time 17.01.2022 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound traded with rising dynamics against the US currency during the morning session, recovering from the "bearish" correction last Friday. The end of the last trading week was marked by an active rise in the US dollar exchange rate, and there were practically no fundamental reasons for this.

In turn, the macroeconomic statistics from the UK, which appeared last Friday, provided additional support to the pound. UK GDP rose 0.9% in November after rising 0.2% in October. Analysts expected an increase of only 0.4%. The growth rate of Industrial Production for the same period amounted to 1.0%, while the market expected only 0.2%. In October, production volumes showed negative dynamics at the level of –0.5%. In annual terms, however, production slowed down from 0.2% to 0.1%, which was much worse than investors' expectations of growth of 0.5%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is slightly narrowing, staying spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD indicator is declining and is getting ready to form a new sell signal (the histogram should consolidate below the signal line). Stochastic shows a slightly more confident decline, quickly retreating from its highs.

Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3833.
Support levels: 1.3650, 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.3650 with the subsequent breakout of 1.3700 with the target at 1.3800. Stop-loss – 1.3650. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The breakdown of 1.3650 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 1.3550. Stop-loss – 1.3700.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: glossary

Beginning traders certainly face a lot of specialized concepts and lexicon on FOREX, which are often not fully been understood. Swap, tick, hedge, margin calls are often unfamiliar to beginning traders. But the lack of knowledge of these fundamentals make a competent market vision impossible. So glossary on the NPBFX analytical portal could be an excellent helper in this case, which contains all the main definitions with explanations in a compact and accessible form. All concepts are arranged in alphabetical order, so that you can easily and quickly find and explore a new concept for yourself.

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AUD/USD: the Australian dollar ends the week with flat dynamics 21.01.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The Australian dollar, thanks to the active actions of the “bears”, is losing ground at the end of the current trading week, testing the level of 0.7200 for a breakdown. AUD/USD pair is losing ground and moving into the “red” zone, despite the fact that there are not many fundamental reasons for the growth of the American currency. The data released the day before from the US failed to support the “bullish” sentiment of investors in the US currency, neither within the data on Initial Jobless Claims, nor on the statistics of Existing Home Sales.

In turn, on Thursday, the Australian dollar managed to enlist fairly strong support from market participants after the publication of a strong report on the Australian labor market for December. The Employment Change increased by 64.8K jobs, which turned out to be significantly better than market expectations of 30K jobs. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in the country in December fell to new record lows at around 4.2%, although analysts' forecasts suggested a decline from only 4.6% to 4.5%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show flat dynamics. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is stretching into a line along the zero level, signaling an approximate balance of power between sellers and buyers in the short term. Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, near the level of “20” and indicating the continuation of the “bullish” momentum since the middle of the week.

Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7300, 0.7328, 0.7369.
Support levels: 0.7200, 0.7160, 0.7128, 0.7100.

Trading tips

To open new sales, one can rely on a confident breakdown of 0.7160 with a target of 0.7100. Stop loss – 0.7200. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

A rebound from the level of 0.7160 as a support, followed by a breakout of 0.7200, may be a signal to open long positions with the target at 0.7250. Stop loss – 0.7175.

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GBP/USD: the pound tests the level of 1.3500 for a breakout 26.01.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British currency demonstrates upward trading dynamics during the morning session on January 26, recovering from local lows of the beginning of the month and testing for a breakout the strong resistance around 1.3500. The growth is more of a technical nature since the fundamental factors change slightly.

Today, the key event will be the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate, and therefore investors are in no hurry to open new long dollar positions. However, the regulator is unlikely to surprise the markets, although officials' comments and renewed forecasts for the future can play an important role. On January 11, the chairman of the department, Jerome Powell, announced a clear sequence of actions to normalize monetary policy in the country: the quantitative easing (QE) program will end in March, and then several key rate increases are planned throughout the year. Investors expect the first increase in March from US officials, with four such adjustments scheduled for 2022.

Yesterday's US macroeconomic data provided minor support to the dollar. Thus, the housing price index in November strengthened by 1.1%, maintaining the previous month's growth rate, while analysts expected the index to slow down to 1.0%. The housing price index from S&P/CaseShiller over the same period slowed down from 18.5% to 18.3%, while the market expected a decrease to 18%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger bands smoothly reverse downwards on the daily chart: the price range expands from below, letting the "bears" renew local lows. MACD also decreases, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Having approached its lows, Stochastic reversed into an upward plane, signaling in favor of a corrective growth of the pound in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650.
Support levels: 1.3460, 1.3435, 1.3400, 1.3350.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 1.3550 with the target at 1.3650. Stop loss – 1.3500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 1.3550 as resistance, followed by the breakdown of 1.3500, with the target at 1.3400. Stop loss – 1.3550.

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If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.

Use the current recommendations of analysts on GBP/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.

GBP/USD: pound develops corrective growth 31.01.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound shows the uptrend at trading against the US currency during the morning session, testing the level of 1.3400 for a breakout. The instrument wins back its losses recorded last week, as a result of which GBP/USD updated local lows from December 23. Technical factors remain the main "bullish" driver at the moment, while the macroeconomic background from the UK is changing slightly.

In turn, data from the US released on Friday put additional pressure on the positions of the US currency. The volume of Personal Income in December slowed down from 0.5% to 0.3%, which turned out to be worse than the neutral forecasts of experts. Personal Spending for the same period decreased by 0.6% after rising by 0.4% a month earlier. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January fell from 68.8 to 67.2 points, which turned out to be worse than the average market forecasts of a decline to only 68.7 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, located near its lows, is trying to reverse upwards, indicating the development of corrective dynamics in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3435, 1.3460, 1.3500, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3300.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3435 with the target at 1.3550. Stop loss – 1.3380. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The return of a "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 1.3350 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.3250. Stop-loss – 1.3400.

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NZD/USD: rising amid strong demand for risky assets 04.02.2022 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair grows slightly, renewing local highs since January 26.

The macroeconomic statistics from the USA, published on Thursday, were ambiguous. Thus, Initial Jobless Claims for the week of January 28 decreased from 261K to 238K, better than market forecasts of a fall to 245K. Markit Service PMI was also positive, rising from 50.9 to 51.2 points for January, exceeding the neutral forecasts. In turn, ISM Service PMI for the same period fell from 62.3 to 59.9 points, which was slightly better than investors' expectations of 59.5 points. Traders were also disappointed by the volume of industrial orders, which fell by 0.4% for December after rising by 1.8% in the previous period. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.2%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of flat trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, approaching its highs, which indicates that NZD may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6700, 0.6732, 0.6761, 0.6800.
Support levels: 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6528, 0.6500.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 0.6700 with the target at 0.6800. Stop loss – 0.6650. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 0.6700 and the breakdown of 0.6650 with the target at 0.6550. Stop loss – 0.6700.

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XAU/USD: gold renews local highs 09.02.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the Asian session, gold prices are rising moderately, developing the "bullish" momentum since the beginning of the month and recovering from a sharp decline at the end of January. Supported by relatively poor positions in the American currency, the instrument approached testing the level of 1830.00 for a breakout upwards. Also, the "bulls" on the dollar are waiting for the data on consumer inflation in the US for January, hoping that they will become another signal in favor of a faster tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In turn, a further increase in gold quotes is hindered by a noticeable increase in the yield of treasury bonds both in the US and in Europe.

The US macroeconomic statistics released yesterday did not provide any noticeable support to the dollar. Thus, the business optimism index from the NFIB for January fell from 98.9 to 97.1 points. The index of economic optimism from IBD/TIPP retreated from 44.7 to 44.0 points in February, while the forecasts suggested that the indicator would increase to 47.2 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse into a horizontal plane. The price range narrow, indicating the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short/medium term. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic remains in a confident upward direction but is close to its highs, indicating that gold may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1831.66, 1840.00, 1847.63, 1853.57.
Support levels: 1823.09, 1814.06, 1805.50, 1800.00.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 1831.66 with the target at 1847.63. Stop loss – 1823.09. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 1831.66 and the breakdown of 1823.09 with the target at 1805.50. Stop loss – 1831.66.

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USD/CAD: interest rate hike risks support the US dollar 14.02.2022

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CAD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The US dollar shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against the Canadian currency during today's Asian session, holding near 1.2730.

The instrument managed to demonstrate a moderate positive trend at the end of last week, which was supported by expectations of a further increase in the interest rate by the US Fed against the backdrop of a sharp rise in inflation in the country by 7.5%, which is the highest level since February 1982. Analysts' forecasts assumed an increase of only 7.3% and at the end of December 2021, inflation in the country grew by only 7.0%.

The Canadian dollar, in turn, is still under pressure from a weak report on the labor market, released at the beginning of the month, and expects new drivers for possible growth. On Wednesday, Canada will release a block of macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of consumer prices in January. On the same day, Timothy Lane, the member of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Canada, will make a speech.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show weak growth. The price range is actively narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic grows more steadily but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects risks of the overbought USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2786, 1.2812, 1.2850.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2650, 1.2600, 1.2558.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.2750 with the target at 1.2850. Stop-loss – 1.2700. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 1.2750 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.2700 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.2600. Stop-loss – 1.2750.

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AUD/USD: the pair is preparing to end the week with strong growth 18.02.2022 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

During the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair has been trading near local highs of February 10, testing the level of 0.7200 for a breakout.

Significant support for the instrument is provided by rather poor macroeconomic signals that have been coming to the market from the US in recent days. In particular, yesterday, investors drew attention to the growth in Initial Jobless Claims: the figure for the week of February 11 rose from 225K to 248K, which was noticeably worse than market expectations for a decrease to 219K. At the same time, Continuous Jobless Claims for the week of February 4 still decreased from 1.619M to 1.593M, ahead of forecasts of 1.605M. An additional negative moment was the decline in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Philadelphia Fed in February from 23.2 to 16.0 points, while investors expected a decline to only 20.0 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands actively grow. The price range changes slightly, limiting the pace of development of "bullish" dynamics in the short term. MACD grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and tries to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic shows similar dynamics but indicates that the instrument may become overbought in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 0.7200, 0.7250, 0.7300, 0.7328.
Support levels: 0.7160, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.7000.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 0.7250 with the target at 0.7350. Stop loss – 0.7200.

Short positions may be opened after the breakdown of 0.7160 with the target at 0.7050. Stop loss – 0.7210.

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