USD/CAD: the Canadian currency is being held in an uptrend 01.11.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CAD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

USD/CAD is showing neutral dynamics against the background of the growth of USD quotes, being at 1.2387. CAD is holding onto an uptrend following the release of Canadian GDP, which rose 0.4% in August after falling 0.1% in July. In addition, investors reacted positively to the increase in September Raw Material Price Index by 2.5% after –2.4% shown a month earlier. The Industrial Product Price Index climbed 1.0% in September after recording a 0.3% decline in August.

In turn, USD again exceeded the psychological level of 94 points in the USD Index and is now trading at 94.230. Investors reacted positively to the publication of statistics by the University of Michigan. Consumer Expectations Index in October amounted to 67.9 points, which is higher than the predicted 67.2 points. The Consumer Sentiment Index was 71.7 points, which exceeded the September value at around 71.4 points.

Support and resistance

On the global chart, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the Flag, the local pattern of the trend continuation. The fluctuation range of the EMAs on the Alligator indicator begins to gradually narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sell zone, forming local upward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.2436, 1.2622.
Support levels: 1.2305, 1.2163.

Trading tips

If the asset continues declining and the price consolidates below 1.2305, short positions can be opened with the target at 1.2163. Stop-loss – 1.2400. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

If the asset reverses and continues growing globally and the price consolidates above 1.2436, long positions will be relevant with the target at 1.2622. Stop-loss – 1.2360.

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USD/JPY: dollar is preparing to end the week with a slight decline 05.11.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The US dollar is showing multidirectional trend against the yen, holding around 113.60.

The US currency is trying to recover after the publication of the minutes of the US Fed meeting, according to which the regulator begins a gradual reduction in the quantitative easing (QE) program, but at the same time it is still far from starting a cycle of raising the interest rate. However, the pressure on the dollar is easing slightly, as other global central banks (the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan) also seem to be in no rush to introduce tighter monetary policy. The day before, the statistics on the dynamics of jobless claims provided moderate support to the American currency. The number of Initial Jobless Claims decreased from 283K to 269K, ahead of most forecasts around 277K.

Todayб investors are focused on the October report on the US labor market, which, according to analysts, may put additional pressure on the US Fed in the matter of a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate an unsteady decrease. The price range is narrowing from above, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is developing a fairly strong downtrend, maintaining a sell signal, being located below the signal line. Stochastic also keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.50, 115.00.
Support levels: 113.50, 113.00, 112.06, 111.19.

Trading tips

To open short positions, one can rely on the breakdown of 113.50 with the target at 112.50. Stop-loss — 114.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 113.50 as from support followed by a breakout of 114.00 may become a signal for new purchases with the target at 115.00. Stop-loss — 113.50.

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GBP/USD: the pound is consolidating near 1.3550 10.11.2021 

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound shows ambiguous trading dynamics against the US dollar during the morning session and is consolidating around 1.3550. Prior to that, the currency of the United Kingdom renewed local maximums since November 4; however, the "bulls" failed to fix at new levels and after that corrective sentiments began to be clearly noticeable. Investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions, preferring to wait for the publication on the next Thursday, November 11, of statistics on GDP and industrial production in the UK for September.

Statistics from the US will appear a day earlier, on Wednesday, November 10. Analysts expect fresh data on inflation, which today is becoming one of the fundamental questions not only for the US Fed, but also for many of the world's leading central banks. Market forecasts suggest that US inflation in October will accelerate from +0.4% MoM to +0.5% MoM, but may slightly slow down from +5.4% YoY to +5.3 % YoY.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate active decrease. The price range narrows from above, but still remains spacious enough for the current level of market activity. MACD indicator turns in the direction of growth and forms a new buy signal (the histogram is trying to gain a foothold above the signal line), Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, developing a “bullish” momentum and being approximately in the center of its working area.

Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750.
Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3350.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the upward breakdown of 1.3600 with the target at 1.3700.  Stop-loss — 1.3550. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The return of "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 1.3500 may become a signal for further sales with target at 1.3400. Stop-loss — 1.3550.

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NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar develops corrective growth 15.11.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The New Zealand currency is showing moderate gains against the US dollar during the Asian session and is developing a corrective uptrend that formed at the end of last week. On Friday, November 12, the instrument managed to move away from local minimums, which was the result of closing most of the long positions in the US currency before the weekend.

The choice of investors was influenced by macroeconomic statistics. Thus, American traders reacted negatively to the unexpected decrease in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in November from 71.7 to 66.8 points. In turn, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand in October rose from 51.4 to 54.3 points, which was better than the average forecasts of experts.

A noticeable support for the instrument at the beginning of the week is provided by the optimistic sentiment of China. The volume of retail sales in the country in October increased by 4.9% YoY after growing by 4.4% YoY last month (although analysts expected the indicator to slow down to 3.5% YoY), and the pace of industrial production accelerated from the previous +3.1% YoY to +3.5% YoY — that turned out to be better than the market forecasts of +3.0% YoY.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding from below; however, it fails to catch the surge of the "bearish" sentiment at the moment. MACD indicator is declining and maintaining a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line), Stochastic shows a corrective upward reversal and is located near its minimum values, which signals that the instrument is oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.7071, 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7200.
Support levels: 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.6950, 0.6900.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7071. Take-profit – 0.7150. Stop-loss – 0.7030. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

A rebound from 0.7071 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.7040 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 0.6950. Stop loss – 0.7080.

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USD/JPY: the dollar resumed growth at the end of the week 19.11.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The US dollar shows a slight increase against the Japanese yen in trading in Asia, building on the "bullish" momentum that formed the day before. USD/JPY is trying to recover from a sharp decline on Wednesday, when the US currency retreated from its record highs amid growing concerns about the further maintenance of the US Fed's monetary policy.

Investors today are focused on the statistics on consumer inflation in Japan for October. The National Consumer Price Index rose only 0.1% YoY after rising 0.2% YoY in September. Analysts had expected growth by 0.5% YoY. The National Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy strengthened by 0.4% YoY over the same period after falling by 0.5% YoY in the previous period. Analytical forecasts assumed a decline of 0.6% YoY.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly expanded from above, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates a noticeably more active decline and practically does not react to the instrument's attempt to grow at the end of the week.

To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.

Resistance levels: 114.50, 115.00, 115.50, 116.00.
Support levels: 114.00, 113.50, 113.00, 112.50.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 114.50. Take-profit – 115.50. Stop-loss – 114.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 114.50 as from resistance followed by a breakdown of 114.00 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 113.00. Stop-loss – 114.50.

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GBP/USD: the pound develops corrective decline 24.11.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound is trading lower against the US currency during the morning session, being under pressure since last Friday. The pound finds nothing to counter the rising dollar, despite some very optimistic evidence of the strength of the UK economy. In particular, yesterday investors reacted to the publication of statistics on business activity. In the manufacturing sector, activity in the UK in November rose from 57.8 to 58.2 points, ahead of forecasts of a decline to 57.3 points. Services PMI, in turn, slightly decreased from 59.1 to 58.6 points, but remains at quite acceptable levels.

Positive statistics from the UK allows us to maintain expectations regarding further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England. Markets expect the British regulator to make a decision on this matter already at the December meeting.

Investors are focused on macroeconomic statistics from the USA today. Among the most important indicators are the dynamics of durable goods orders in November, annual GDP data for Q3 2021 and statistics on personal income and expenses of American citizens for October.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3550.
Support levels: 1.3341, 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 1.3341 with the subsequent breakout of 1.3400. Take-profit – 1.3500. Stop-loss – 1.3341. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The breakdown of 1.3341 may serve as a signal for new sales with the target at 1.3250. Stop-loss – 1.3400.

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USD/JPY: volatile dynamics on the news of a new strain 29.11.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics against the Japanese yen during trading in Asia, consolidating near 113.50. At the end of last week, the instrument showed a sharp decline, quickly retreating from its record highs, which became the market's reaction to the discovery of a new, Omicron, strain of coronavirus, which threatens the fragile process of global economic recovery. The World Health Organization (WHO) noted that the virus has undergone changes "of relevance to global public health".

Moderate support for the yen, in turn, was provided by Friday's data on consumer prices in Japan. In November, Tokyo Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% MoM, accelerating from 0.1% MoM growth in October. At the beginning of the new week, buying activity on the yen is supported by upbeat data from Japan on retail sales. In September, sales increased by 1.1% MoM and 0.9% YoY, which turned out to be better than forecasts, since in monthly terms the markets expected a decline in indicators by 1.6% MoM.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.50, 115.00, 115.50.
Support levels: 113.50, 113.00, 112.50, 112.06.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 114.00 with the target at 115.00. Stop-loss – 113.50. Implementation time: 1-2 days.

The development of "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 113.00 may become a signal for further sales with target at 112.06. Stop-loss – 113.50.

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USD/CHF: USD is trying to recover 03.12.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The American currency is showing weak gains against the Swiss franc during the Asian session, recovering from local lows since November 10, updated last Tuesday. Market participants expect the November US labor market report to enter the market, which should clarify the outlook for the US Fed's monetary policy. The Chairman of the regulator Jerome Powell agreed with the arguments of the market about the threats of inflationary pressure, noting that to stabilize the situation, officials may have to resort to additional measures. In particular, the market is counting on a possible acceleration in the pace of reduction of the quantitative easing program, after which the US Fed is likely to move to raising the interest rate.

The American macroeconomic statistics published yesterday turned out to be ambiguous. Investors reacted rather restrainedly to the increase in the number of initial jobless claims for the week ended November 26 from 194K to 222K. At the same time, the real dynamics turned out to be 18K better than market expectations. Continuing jobless claims for the first time in a long time fell below the psychological mark of 2M to 1.956M.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing into a descending plane. The price range is expanding from below, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down preserving a rather stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having rebounded from the lows in the middle of the week, maintains an uptrend, signaling in favor of corrective growth in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 0.9200, 0.9220, 0.9250, 0.9272.
Support levels: 0.9175, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9073.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.9220 with the target at 0.9272. Stop-loss – 0.9190. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.9220 as from resistance followed by a breakdown of 0.9200 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 0.9150. Stop-loss – 0.9220.

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XAU/USD: the price develops a corrective impulse 08.12.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices grow moderately, developing the correctional impulse formed yesterday, and test the level of 1790.00 for a breakout, waiting for new drivers to appear.

More active positive dynamics are hindered by an increase in optimism in the market since the new strain of coronavirus will not be a significant obstacle to the further recovery of the global economy. Pressure on the instrument is also exerted by the rather strong positions of the American currency, as traders expect that the US Federal Reserve will accelerate the withdrawal of the quantitative easing (QE) program during the December meeting. Earlier, the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, recognized the risks of systemic inflation and noted that additional efforts might be required to stabilize prices in the country.

The US labor market report for November released last Friday also signaled in favor of a faster monetary tightening. The unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.6% to 4.2%, well ahead of analysts' forecasts of a decline only to 4.5%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands steadily decline. The price range narrows sharply, indicating an ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator grows, maintaining a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows more active growth but rapidly approaches its highs, indicating a limited potential for developing ultra-short-term corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 1790.00, 1800.00, 1812.22, 1822.10.
Support levels: 1778.32, 1769.67, 1760.74, 1750.44.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 1800.00 with the target at 1822.10. Stop loss – 1790.00. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions may be opened after the rebound from 1790.00 and the breakdown of 1778.32 with the target at 1760.74. Stop loss – 1790.00.

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USD/JPY: USD is recovering its positions 13.12.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The American currency is showing an uptrend against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, recovering after the "bearish" end of last week's trading.

At the moment, the dollar is testing the level of 113.50 for a breakout in anticipation of the upcoming meeting of the US Fed and the actions of the regulator in the matter of tightening monetary policy. Last Friday, the US published inflation statistics, which did not meet investors' expectations, but reflected the fastest rise in consumer prices over the past 40 years. The last US Fed's meeting this year will take place on December 15 and it is likely that the regulator will accelerate the pace of reduction of the current quantitative easing (QE) program in order to move faster to raising interest rates.

The data released in Japan today do not provide additional support to the yen. Machinery Orders in October showed a sharp slowdown from 12.5% to 2.9% in annual terms, which is significantly worse than analysts' forecasts at 4.0%. Tankan Large All Industry Capex in Q4 2021 decreased from 10.1% to 9.3%, while the market expected 9.8%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, maintains a fairly confident downtrend and has not yet reacted to the dollar's attempt at corrective growth at the beginning of the week.

Resistance levels: 113.50, 114.00, 114.50, 115.00.
Support levels: 113.00, 112.50, 112.06.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 114.00 with the target at 115.00. Stop-loss – 113.50. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The breakdown of 113.00 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 112.06. Stop-loss – 113.50.

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You can read a Beginner's guide to FOREX Trading online or download it free of charge from the NPBFX analytical portal in the "Education" section. In order to get unlimited access to the E-book and other useful instruments on the portal, you need to register on the NPBFX website.

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GBP/USD: the pound received a boost from the Bank of England 17.12.2021

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The British pound is trading mixed against the US currency during the morning session, consolidating around 1.3320 amid most of the long profit taking.

The day before, the instrument showed steady growth and updated local highs from November 24, which was the market's reaction to a rather unexpected increase in rates by the Bank of England. Citing high inflation, which reached 5.1% in November on an annualized basis (after rising 4.2% in October), the regulator announced an increase in the key interest rate to 0.25%, and the decision was made almost unanimously (8 votes against 1).

Thus, the Bank of England became one of the first major central banks in the world to take this step. In addition, the British regulator decided to maintain the volume of UK government bond purchases at 875B pounds. In turn, the US Federal Reserve, which held a meeting the day before, only announced acceleration in the pace of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program.

Support and resistance

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects the risks of overbought GBP in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500.
Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3250, 1.3200, 1.3159.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3350 with the target at 1.3450. Stop-loss – 1.3300. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 1.3350 as from resistance followed by a breakdown of 1.3300 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 1.3200. Stop-loss – 1.3350.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: glossary

Beginning traders certainly face a lot of specialized concepts and lexicon on FOREX, which are often not fully been understood. Swap, tick, hedge, margin calls are often unfamiliar to beginning traders. But the lack of knowledge of these fundamentals make a competent market vision impossible. So glossary on the NPBFX analytical portal could be an excellent helper in this case, which contains all the main definitions with explanations in a compact and accessible form. All concepts are arranged in alphabetical order, so that you can easily and quickly find and explore a new concept for yourself.

If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.

Use the current recommendations of analysts on GBP/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.

EUR/USD: euro shows flat trading dynamics 22.12.2021

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Euro is showing flat dynamics against the US dollar during today's Asian session, consolidating at 1.2715 and waiting for new drivers to appear on the market.

Investor activity is rapidly declining on the eve of Christmas holidays; however, a large block of macroeconomic statistics from the USA on the dynamics of orders for durable goods and the volume of personal income and household spending is still expected to be published this week. In addition, today the United States will present updated data on GDP dynamics for Q3 2021. However, it is unlikely that the new estimates will be adjusted, and therefore they will not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the trading instrument.

There are noticeably fewer economic publications from Europe; however, traders are concerned about the surge in the incidence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain and the possible return of new restrictions on the eve of the holidays. The data on consumer confidence released the day before did not add optimism: the German Consumer Confidence Index from Gfk with the forecast for January showed a decrease from -1.8 to -6.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than analysts' forecasts at -2.5 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are showing flat dynamics in a very narrow price range, indicating a further decline in trading activity in the market. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing multidirectional dynamics being located in the middle of its area. At the moment, the indicator readings remain uninformative.

Resistance levels: 1.1300, 1.1329, 1.1359, 1.1400.
Support levels: 1.1255, 1.1220, 1.1185, 1.1153.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.1300 with the target at 1.1359. Stop-loss – 1.1270. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

The breakdown of 1.1255 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 1.1185. Stop-loss – 1.1290.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: weekly FOREX forecast

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