Forecast for GBP/USD on September 27, 2021

On Friday, the British pound tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line (the line was pierced by the upper shadow), but under general market pressure it was forced to leave this venture until more favorable circumstances. In case of a positive development of events, with the breakthrough of the MACD line (1.3722), the 1.3888 target will open - the nearest embedded line of the rising price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the downward trend zone, therefore, the observed rise in prices during the Asian session does not mean anything yet, especially since there has been a falling gap since the opening of the market.

Marlin stayed in the growth zone on the four-hour chart, the price is trying to rise above the balance indicator line. This is the first positive sign. To confirm it, the price needs to overcome the resistance of the MACD line in the price area of 1.3745.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 27, 2021

Over the past three days, the USD/JPY pair has shown strong and confident growth when the price overcame the target level of 110.65. To some extent, this growth was unexpected, but it does not mean that now the market is returning to the strengthening of the dollar, to reaching 111.39 and 112.22.

We estimate the reversal of the pair from the reached level with a further decline to the MACD line to the area of 109.65 with a probability of 70%; confusion in the stock markets, the general tendency for the dollar to weaken in other currency pairs may implement a downward trend scenario for USD/JPY. The Marlin Oscillator is giving an early reversal signal.

The price is trying to return below the target level of 110.65 on the H4 chart, the Marlin Oscillator is sharply turning down from the overbought zone. We are waiting for the development of events.

But on the daily scale, the exit above the MACD line will occur earlier (1.3722), and in order not to happen that the opening of a position will happen on a false breakout of resistance on the daily scale, it is advisable to open a position after a reinforcing signal on H4.

Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 29, 2021

September 29 economic calendar:

Today, the UK's lending market data will be released. And although the number of approved mortgage loans should be reduced from 75.15 thousand to 73.00 thousand, the volume of mortgage lending may increase by 0.5 billion pounds. However, such results will cancel each other out.

Therefore, the fate of the pound will be determined by consumer lending, the volume of which should be reduced by 0.75 billion pounds. Consequently, consumer activity is declining. Nevertheless, it is not the driver of economic growth. It can be seen that the prospects for the pound do not look the best.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 29:

The US dollar strengthened again since the opening of the European session, as a result of which the quote managed to break through the local low (1.1664) of August 20. A confirmation signal about the prolongation of the downward cycle from the beginning of June should arrive when the price is kept below the level of 1.1660 for an H4 period. In this case, there is a chance to further decline towards the level of 1.1600.

An alternative scenario will arise if the quote still fails to stay below the level of 1.1660, which will lead to a natural price rebound.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 29:

The oversold pound does not stop greedy speculators who continue to work on the decline. The quote is rapidly declining, where there is already an attempt to keep the price below the level of 1.3500. If the market maintains the set pace, we should not rule out a decline towards the 1.3450 area. As a result, the oversold status of the British currency will reach the highest level, which will lead to a technical correction.

Gold comes under pressure from stronger US dollar

The yellow metal has been trading with losses lately. Its recent steep gains have been trimmed, and new victories are not in sight. However, experts of the precious metals market are optimistic about the long-term future of Gold

The precious metal closed September with a 3.4% decline. According to analysts, this is the first significant drop in the value of gold since June this year. Its attempts to gain momentum are unsuccessful, although it does not give up. As of October 1, the XAU/USD pair is trading at $1,752.22, showing a slight upward trend. At the same time, the price of the COMEX gold futures for December delivery traded on the New York Stock Exchange fell by 0.25% to $1,725.75 per troy ounce.

Experts consider the stronger US currency to be an obstacle to an increase in the precious metal. The greenback has grown steadily over the past several trading sessions, thus taking the lead. This hindered the growth of gold, in which investors preferred to invest in the third quarter of 2021. Notably, during that period, market participants expressed concerns about the spread of the new Delta COVID-19 variant. Against this background, the demand for defensive assets increased sharply, primarily for the yellow metal. However, at the end of the summer, the dynamics of the asset became sluggish. In July, gold added 2.3%. In August, the precious metal rose by 0.3%. In September, it dropped by 3.4%. According to analysts, the September decline was the first since the beginning of this summer. As a result, gold lost 0.8% in the third quarter of 2021. Since the beginning of this year, it has fallen by more than 7.8%.

The key factor determining the dynamics of the precious metal in September is still the US dollar's rate. In early autumn, the greenback was trading under pressure from expectations of further changes in the Fed's monetary policy. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the regulator would probably phase out its stimulus programs, while some of his comments were hawkish in nature. The fact that the Fed was close to tapering its support measures supported the US dollar, experts emphasize.

The current high rate of the US currency lowered the demand for the precious metal among investors. At the same time, the situation in the precious metals market sometimes changed dramatically. Earlier, the yellow metal showed an inverse correlation with the greenback. However, in the current year and in late 2020, there were times when the dynamics of these assets were synchronized. Lately, experts have recorded an inverse correlation when the stronger greenback exerted pressure on gold.

The short-term outlook for the precious metal is rather pessimistic. Analysts believe that gold has lost its directional vector, so the US dollar is in the focus of market participants. According to Michael Langford, executive director at corporate advisory and consultancy firm AirGuide, greenback is now the best defense against most risks, unlike gold. In the medium term, the precious metal may gain momentum amid weak US macroeconomic statistics or the debt problems of China's Evergrande. As for the long term, these factors will hardly support gold.

According to DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak, only the long-term outlook for the price of the yellow metal is optimistic. The recent simultaneous drop in gold and stocks indicates that the precious metal cannot save from losses in risky assets, Spivak believes. Analysts note that the foreseeable future of gold is rather dull, since the odds of gaining strong bullish momentum are pretty slim.

GBP/USD pair is looking for a favorable buy pattern

The GBP/USD pair is in the phase of forming an upward momentum unlike the EUR/USD pair. So, only a strong impulse decline at today's European session can disrupt this structure.

If the quotes do not decline, then the upward movement will continue in the area of the Weekly Control Zone of 1/4 1.3561-1.3553. The upward trend is a priority. The WCZ of 1.3789-1.3755 remains the upward target. Trading based on this pattern guarantees a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. It is important to understand that there is a 30% probability to completely implement the upward movement this week, so it is necessary to be prepared to transfer purchases through the weekend.

The probability of selling profitably from the current levels is below 30%, so it is better not to consider short positions. One should focus their attention on finding a pattern to buy. The probability of updating yesterday's high is 80%.

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY on October 8

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The main pair of the European currency market has been dominated by an upward trend since March last year. The price has been adjusted downwards for the entire current year. Moreover, the wave structure looks complete. Quotes are at the lower border of a strong potential reversal zone. There are no reversal signals yet.

Forecast:
The general flat nature of price fluctuations is expected today. A short-term depreciation of the exchange rate is possible in the next session, no further than the support zone. By the end of the day, the probability of price growth increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1.1600/1.1530

Support:
- 1.1520/1.1490

Recommendations:
The upcoming rise goes against the trend of movement, so buying the euro today may be risky. It is better to split the lot in them. It is optimal to refrain from entering the pair's market until the price pullback is completed, tracking the signals for the sale of the instrument.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
The price on the daily TF chart of the Japanese yen has been forming a downward correction wave since March of this year. By the current day, it looks like a shifting plane. Its structure lacks the final part. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the resistance zone of the W1 scale.

Forecast:
On the next day, the price of the pair is expected to move with an upward vector. Settlement zones indicate the boundaries of the price corridor. By the end of the day, the probability of a change of course and the beginning of a decline increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 112.50/112.80

Support:
- 111.60/111.30

Recommendations:
Trading the Japanese yen today can be safe only within the intraday, a fractional lot. Until clear reversal signals appear in the area of the resistance zone, sales are not recommended.

US indicators close lower

On Monday, US indicators closed the trading session with a decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.72%, the S&P 500 was down 0.69% and the NASDAQ Composite dipped 0.64%.

A number of factors contributed to the fall in US indicators. First, investors are concerned about rising oil prices. November WTI crude futures rose 1.5% to $80.52 a barrel and December Brent crude was up to $83.65 a barrel. Oil prices have been boosted by a worldwide gas shortage. In turn, this has benefited oil and gas companies' share prices.

Another reason for traders' concern is the strong rise in inflation combined with low economic growth. Inflation is rising at a higher rate than expected due to supply problems, lack of human resources, and rapidly increasing energy costs. At the same time, the economic recovery has not been as rapid as expected. The Goldman Sachs has changed its GDP growth forecasts for the final quarter of this year due to lower consumer spending and impending cuts in government economic assistance measures.

In addition, corporate reports will be released soon and may clarify how companies are coping with price increases. Indicators of expected income will show how top corporate executives assess the future growth and increase in consumer spending. Delta Air Lines, Domino's Pizza, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and JPMorgan Chase will release their reports as early as this week.

Experts are optimistic because of the significant amount of savings that citizens managed to accumulate during the pandemic, as it is not known how the pandemic will unfold during the winter.

Materials stocks were the best performing sector on the day, underpinned by a 3.2% jump in Freeport-McMoran Copper&Gold Inc as copper prices continued to climb.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan fell 2.1% and Amazon dropped 1.3%. Visa was down 2.2% and Mastercard also fell 2.2% among the biggest drags on the S&P 500. The shares of Southwest Airlines Co. dropped 4.2% as the company canceled a third of its flights.

Analysts expect a 29.6% year-on-year increase in profit for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, according to experts' forecasts. It should be noted that this indicator doubled in the second quarter.

US shares mixed at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.00%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones fell 0.00%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.30% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.73%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were the shares of Salesforce.com Inc, which rose in price by 5.41 points (1.94%), to close at around 284.41. Nike Inc rose 1.92% or 2.95 points to end at 156.30. Microsoft Corporation rose 1.17% or 3.43 points to close at 296.31.

The biggest losers were American Express Company, which fell 3.54% or 6.19 points to end the session at 168.72. JPMorgan Chase & Co is up 2.64% or 4.36 points to end at 161.00, while Dow Inc is down 1.44% or 0.83 points to 56. , 91.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which rose in price by 3.92% to the level of 109.16, BlackRock Inc, which gained 3.78%, to close at 867.81, and also Discovery Inc Class A shares, which rose 3.74% to end at 25.50.

The biggest losers were Delta Air Lines Inc, which fell 5.76% to close at 41.03. Align Technology Inc shed 4.97% to trade at 596.22. United Airlines Holdings Inc was down 3.60% to 47.88.

Jasper Therapeutics Inc, which gained 105.13% to 14.790, Waitr Holdings Inc, which gained 58.45% to close at 1.2700, and Sono-Tek Corp, which were up 44.22% to end at 6.4900.

The biggest losers were Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which fell 29.88% to close at 0.5326. Shares of Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp shed 29.37% to end the session at 2.910. DatChat Inc was down 26.07% to 11.10.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1982) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (1198), while the quotes of 153 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2055 companies rose in price, 1556 declined, and 174 remained at the level of the previous close.

Sono-Tek Corp rose to an all-time high, up 44.22%, at 1.9900 points, to close at 6.4900.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 6.10% to trade at 18.64.

WTI crude oil futures for November delivery fell 0.10%, or 0.08, to $ 80.56 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for December delivery fell 0.17% or 0.14 to trade at $ 83.28 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD rose 0.59% to hit 1.1595, while USD / JPY fell 0.28% to hit 113.29.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.52% at 94.028.

Most Asian stock markets are trading in the red

The volume of GDP in July-September increased by 4.9% compared with the same period last year, which was the weakest rise in a year, according to data from the State Statistical Office of the PRC. Many experts predicted a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy in the third quarter, but it turned out to be more significant than expected. The consensus forecast of experts interviewed by The Wall Street Journal envisaged an increase in China's GDP by 5.1%.

The volume of industrial production in the PRC in September increased by 3.1% in annual terms after rising by 5.3% a month earlier. Analysts on average had forecast an increase of 4.5%. September growth was the weakest since July 2020.

Nonetheless, retail sales in the country last month beat analysts' forecasts and increased 4.4% compared to the same month in 2020. Experts surveyed by Trading Economics, on average, expected retail sales growth to accelerate to 3.3% last month from 2.5% in August.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng index by 8:30 GMT + 3 fell by 0.5%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite fell by 0.4%.

Tech company values fall: Meituan declines 2.9%, Tencent Holdings Ltd. dropped 1.4%, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell by 1%.

At the same time, oil and gas stocks traded in positive territory in Hong Kong on Monday amid the continuing rise in oil prices, CNOOC Ltd. (+1.5), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (+ 1.4%), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (+1.3).

Japanese Nikkei 225 at 8:40 GMT + 3 decreased by 0.2%.

Technological Panasonic Corp. shares declined on the Japanese stock exchange. (-0.6%) and Sony Group Corp. (-1.7%), but shares of automakers Nissan Motor Co. are getting more expensive. Ltd. (+ 0.5%) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (+ 1.6%), Toyota Motor Corp (T: 7203). (+ 2.2%).

South Korean indicator Kospi dropped 0.2% by 8:45 GMT + 3.

Chip manufacturers SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics are down 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively; the country's largest automakers Kia Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd. grow by 0.5%.

Australia's S & P / ASX 200 adds 0.3%.

Mining Shares Rising: Rio Tinto Ltd. - by 2%, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. - by 1%, BHP Group Ltd. - by 0.9%.

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on October 20

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. Shortly after that a signal to sell appeared, and this time it provoked a large drop in the pair because traders took short positions. Then, another sell signal emerged, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far from zero. Afterwards, a buy signal appeared and it coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area.

Euro rallied yesterday because of the statements from ECB members Frank Elderson and Fabio Panetta. But the situation turned around in the afternoon as Fed members Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman addressed US inflation, which attracted investor interest on dollar.

Today, a lot of macro statistics are scheduled to come out, and these are EU data on CPI and ECB balance of payments, which, if exceeded expectations, could provoke another rally in EUR / USD. Another speech from ECB member Frank Elderson will also commence, followed by statements from Fed members Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic and Randal Quarles.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1656 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1696. Price will increase if EU inflation data comes out strong.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1635, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1656 and 1.1696.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1635 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1594. Pressure may return if there are weak EU statistics and if the Fed makes statements that are in favor of dollar.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1656, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1635 and 1.1594.

S&P 500 has renewed its all-time high

Investors continue to monitor the third quarter's corporate earnings season, as well as assess the potential impact of the White House's attempts to raise corporate taxes. Already published the results of about 70 companies whose shares are included in the calculation of the S&P 500. Profits in 86% of cases turned out to be better than the consensus.

The index of manufacturing activity in Philadelphia in October fell to 23.8 points compared with 30.7 points a month earlier. Experts expected a less significant drop in the indicator calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, that is, up to 25 points. A negative value of the index indicates a weakening of activity in the manufacturing sector of the region, a positive value indicates an increase.

The index of leading economic indicators in the United States in September rose by only 0.2%, according to the research organization Conference Board, which calculates this indicator. In August, the rise was 0.8%. The Conference Board index shows the expected development of the country's economy in the next 3-6 months. It is calculated on the basis of ten key economic indicators, seven of which are known even before the publication of the indicator.

US existing home sales rose 7% in September to 6.29 million homes on an annualized basis, the highest since January, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a report. Experts surveyed by Trading Economics predicted an average increase of 3.6%.

Meanwhile, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has updated the minimum since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of Americans applying for benefits for the first time fell by 6,000 last week to 290,000, according to a report by the US Department of Labor. At the same time, analysts on average expected an increase to 300 thousand.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday decreased by 6.26 points (0.02%) - to 35603.08 points.

Meanwhile, the value of Standard & Poor's 500 increased over the day by 13.59 points (0.3%), amounting to 4549.78 points.

Nasdaq Composite increased by 94.02 points (0.62%) - up to 15215.7 points.

International Business Machines slightly increased revenue in July-September, but the result was worse than expected. The company's shares fell 9.6% in the trading session, becoming the leader of the decline among the Dow Jones.

Chemical company Dow Inc. achieved a profitable level in the third quarter, with adjusted numbers and revenues above analyst expectations. Nevertheless, its shares lost 1.05% in price.

In addition, among the components of the Dow Jones index, shares of Chevron Corp., American Express Co. fell by 1% or more. and Caterpillar.

Southwest Airlines Co. returned to profitable levels in the third quarter and increased revenue better than expected. However, the airline's shares were down 1.6%.

Telecommunications company AT&T Inc., one of the largest in the country, more than doubled its net profit in the last quarter, but its revenue fell due to the spin-off. Its securities fell 0.6%.

At the same time, the cost of HP Inc. jumped 6.9%. The personal computer and printer company has significantly raised its annual dividend and also improved its profit forecast for the next fiscal year.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla posted record net profit and revenue last quarter. The company's shares gained 3.3%.

Forecast for USD/JPY on October 26, 2021

As we expected on Monday, the price spent the entire day sideways. The close of the daily candle was white, and the upward sentiment remained. The growth target is 115.80, and the signal level for continued growth to the target is the resistance at 114.45, which stopped the price on October 15, 18 and 21. The Marlin Oscillator is moving horizontally, which keeps the likelihood of a continuation of the downward correction to the support of the price channel line at 113.12 at about 35% - just like yesterday.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator crossed the border into bull territory. The price develops growth under the balance and MACD indicator lines, which creates difficulties for it. The MACD line is located near the signal level of 114.45, respectively, the price transition above the signal level will give the price an accelerated growth. We are waiting for the development of events.

EUR/USD: US dollar is behind the euro, although it secretly wants to take the lead

The Euro currency rose after the ECB's monetary policy meeting. However, experts believe that this fact has caused a significant blow to the dominance of the US dollar.

As a result of the meeting, the European regulator retained its previous monetary strategy. However, analysts are confident that representatives of the regulator may change the current decision and revise the quantitative easing (QE) programs at the next meeting.

The "dovish" comments of ECB chairman Christine Lagarde helped the euro to rise and bypass its dollar rival in the EUR/USD pair. In particular, the euro was supported by statements about inflation. The regulator expects further growth in the near future and subsequent decline during 2022. According to Lagarde, the eurozone economy continues to recover, although at a slower pace than expected.

The current situation allowed the EUR/USD pair to break through the upper limit of the current range and briefly rise to 1.1700. On Thursday, the bullish mood remained for this instrument, when it managed to reach a new monthly high of 1.1686. On the morning of Friday, the pair slightly lost its position, trading near the level of 1.1670. It was supported by the collapse of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market.

The US currency collapsed to its lowest level in a month on the background of the triumphant euro. Experts emphasize that this decline occurred at the maximum pace over the past two weeks. The disappointing data on US GDP also worsened the situation. According to the US Department of Commerce, this figure increased by 2% in the third quarter of 2021, which turned out to be worse than forecasts. It can be recalled that analysts expected GDP to rise by 2.6%. However, the spread of the COVID-19 delta strain and supply disruptions have made their own adjustments.

This year, the American economy showed higher growth rates, which contributed to the overestimated expectations of specialists. In the first quarter of 2021, US GDP increased by 6.3% per annum, and in the second quarter, it reached a record 6.7%. However, the indicators of the third quarter brought the markets below, disappointing with their statistics.

According to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, supply disruptions will continue in the United States until the middle of next year. This problem, along with the shortage of goods, will negatively affect further production in the country. In such a situation, experts warn that consumer spending will sharply decrease, and inflation rates will remain high.

An additional factor that pressures the US dollar is the expectation of a reduction in the Fed's stimulus programs. Many experts believe that the regulator will begin to cut incentives starting next month and it will raise the interest rate in 2022. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the EUR/USD pair to test the level of 1.1680 and head to new peaks. According to currency strategists at TD Securities, extrapolating the strength of the euro may create problems in the EUR/USD pair before the Fed meeting, at which a reduction in incentives will be announced.