GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Fresh Increase

GBP/USD is trading nicely above the main 1.4080 support zone. GBP/JPY is recovering and it could rally if there is a clear break above the 155.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

• The British Pound is trading in a range above the 1.4080 support against the US Dollar.

• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4100 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

• GBP/JPY is showing a few positive signs above the 154.50 support zone.

• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.00 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few sessions, the British Pound mostly traded in a range below the 1.4200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined recently after it failed to settle above 1.4180.

There was break below the 1.4150 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded below 1.4100, but it remained well bid above the 1.4080 level. A low is formed near 1.4086 on FXOpen and the pair is currently consolidating.

There was a break above the 1.4100 level. The pair recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4184 high to 1.4086 low.

On the upside, an initial resistance on the is near the 1.4135 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4184 high to 1.4086 low. The next key resistance is near the 1.4150 level, above which the pair could rise towards the main 1.4200 resistance.

On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4100 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below the trend line support, the pair could test the 1.4080 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.4000 level.

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BTC and XRP – Recovery could end soon

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 8th of June when it fell to the $31,000 zone again. From there we have seen an increase of 31% measured to its highest point yesterday at $40,750. Now it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory overall.

You can see that the price fell for the third time to the $31,000 zone on the 8th of June on the hourly chart. This was done in a three-wave manner from the May 26th high but also from its June 3rd high. This creates a problem in counting waves as there isn’t still a clear sign that the price bottomed out. However for now we can assume that the price found support again on the 8th after which we have seen an impulsive rise. This could be an indication that we have seen the start of a new wave to the upside which is set to recover the price more significantly.

If this is true then the price should now develop a five-wave pattern which is why a higher high from here could be expected to the vicinity of the horizontal range of $42,000. After that the 2nd wave of the higher degree count should retrace the price before a breakout above the zone.

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LTC and EOS – Was the correction over?

LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been in recovery from the 8th of June when it fell to around $146 at its lowest point. From there the price went on to form a higher low and higher high to $180 area, breaking out from the symmetrical triangle in which it was since the 27th of May. Today we have seen a pullback as a retest of the prior resistance for support, and as support was present we have seen a bounce from there. Currently, the price is being traded at $172.5 area and is still moving in an upward trajectory.

Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Litecoin most likely ended its corrective stage on the 8th of June. This could have been an ABC correction from the 27th of May when the first impulsive move was seen. If so, then from the 8th we have seen the start of another impulse wave to the upside. Another possibility in a positive scenario could be that the price made a five-wave correction count ABCDE to the 12th of June from where the next impulse started. In that case the price has made a three-wave increase with the today seen pullback being its 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse.

Now in both of these positive scenarios, the price would be expected to go higher to the upside in an impulsive manner and make a higher high compared to the one on the 27th of May when the price reached $208.89.

However, there is a negative scenario still in play. If the price ended its three-wave ABC correction on the 8th of June the next structure could end as a three-wave correction to the upside before another downfall. In that case, the price could continue its downward trajectory in the short-term and fall back below the triangle’s resistance level and also the starting point of the prior increase at about $154.3.

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GBP/USD Nosedives, USD/CAD Starts Major Increase

GBP/USD started a sharp downward move after it failed to clear 1.4200. USD/CAD is surging and it recently cleared the 1.2440 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level.

• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

• USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2350 and 1.2400 resistance levels.

• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2410 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made a couple of attempts to settle above 1.4150 and clear 1.4200 against the US Dollar. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to continue higher, and it started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level.

The pair gained bearish momentum below the key 1.4000 support zone. There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.3840 support and traded as low as 1.3790 on FXOpen.

The pair is now consolidating losses above the 1.3800 level. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3840 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The next hurdle is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. The main hurdle is near the 1.3900 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3800 level. The first major support is near the 1.3780 level.

Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the 1.3720 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3650 level.

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BTC and XRP – Recovery shortly expected

BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been on a decline since the 15th of June when it was trading at $41,151 at its highest point. From there we have seen a decrease of 24.5% measured to its lowest point today at around $31,240. Now the price is slightly higher but is currently testing the horizontal support level from the 23rd of May.

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that this is the third time the price has been trading on its lower level of the horizontal range that formed from the 23rd of May. But doing so it weakened the level which is why it potentially won’t hold for much longer. However, the wave structure implies that we might see a recovery shortly at least as the 2nd sub-wave of the next three-wave correction to the downside after which we could see a larger recovery.

From here a breakout to the downside isn’t so likely but rather the price could now find another support here and bounce but only for a lower high compared to the one on the 15th of June. Another possibility would be that from the 8th till the 15th of June we have seen the 3rd wave out of the higher degree correction with its first wave being the upward move from the 23rd till the 26th of May. In that case, the price could continue its downside trajectory but also in the near term a move to the upside would now be expected.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye More Upsides Above Resistance

AUD/USD started a decent recovery wave above 0.7550. NZD/USD is also rising and it could continue to rise if it clears the 0.7100 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.7475 after a steady decline against the US Dollar.

• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7560 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

• NZD/USD also started a decent increase from the 0.6925 zone, and it climbed above 0.7000.

• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7050 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After a major decline, the Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7475 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a steady recovery after it broke the 0.7500 resistance zone.

It broke the 0.7550 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 0.7715 high to 0.7476 low (formed on FXOpen).

An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7595. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 0.7715 high to 0.7476 low. A proper break above the 0.7595 and 0.7600 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7660 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 0.7700 level. Conversely, the pair could correct gains from 0.7600.

An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7560 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7560 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The next major support is near the 0.7550 level. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7500 level.

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Financial Markets Turn Their Attention to Jobs Data

Financial markets reversed their initial reaction after the latest FOMC Statement and press conference. In the two days that followed the June Fed meeting, the US dollar gained ground significantly against its peers in the developed world.

As such, the EURUSD fell from above 1.22 to 1.1850, the AUDUSD dropped a couple of hundred of pips, while the GBPUSD was strongly rejected at the 1.42. Also, stocks dropped in the United States and triggered a sharp decline in other equity markets too.

But it all lasted only two days. The week that just ended has seen the market participants changing their minds. Stocks reversed sharply, the US dollar weakness resumed, and overall risk-on outperformed.

What changed in the meantime? The answer comes from the Fed. Last Tuesday, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, and he downplayed the hawkish statement. Moreover, Fed members held speeches the entire week, reassuring markets that the accommodative measures will remain in place for quite some time despite the hawkish dot plot.

Furthermore, the Fed still sees inflation as transitory. Food and energy prices are expected to come down past 2021, even though right now inflation exceeds the Fed’s target.

Focus Turns to Job Creation

Now that the inflation has reached the Fed’s target, the only chance the US dollar bulls have is for the job market to show significant improvements. While the strong economic growth and improvements in the labor market should bode well for the currency and the stock market indices, further developments in the labor market will bring the Fed closer to its job creation mandate.

Therefore, the Fed’s hawkish message will have greater credibility if the US economy is able to create more jobs. We will find out as soon as next week the current state of the labor market as the Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of May is due.

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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim Higher

Gold price started a decent recovery wave from the $1,750 support. Crude oil price is rising and it is now trading nicely above the $74.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

• Gold price started a fresh recovery wave after forming a base above $1,750 against the US Dollar.

• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.

• Crude oil price climbed higher and it even surged above the $75.00 resistance.

• There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $73.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,750 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,760 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,765 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $1,780 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.

A high is formed near $1,782 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating gains. An upside break above the trend line could spark more gains above $1,782.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,795 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. If the price breaks the $1,800 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,840 zone.

Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,775. An initial support is near the $1,765 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,750 low to $,1782 high.

The first major support is near the $1,760 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term.

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Crude Oil Price Diverges from US Dollar Strength

One of the most interesting divergences in financial markets formed recently. The price of oil remains stubbornly elevated, closing the previous week above $75 per one barrel, despite ongoing dollar strength.

Since April 2020, the price of oil has come a long way. It dipped below the zero level for the first time ever, as the futures market settled close to -$40 twelve months ago. But from that moment on, it ripped higher, recovering all the pandemic losses and some more.

Because oil remains a big chunk of energy consumption in the United States and the rest of the world, higher oil prices fuel higher inflation. Higher inflation, on the other hand, pressures central banks to act and raise the interest rates, as most of them have a price stability mandate given by an inflation-targeting framework.

Commodities vs. Interest Rates

A classic correlation in financial markets tells us that commodities tend to underperform when interest rates are rising. It is not the case this time.

While the interest rates are not off their lows, the Federal Reserve of the United States started to talk hawkish. At its last meeting, the Fed signaled more rate hikes in the near future than the market expected, triggering a move higher in the US dollar.

As such, the EURUSD pair fell from above 1.22 to 1.18, the GBPUSD from 1.42 to 1.38, and the AUDUSD from 0.78 to below 0.75. But the strength in the US dollar did not bring a correction in the price of oil. Just the opposite.

A couple of things may help explain the divergence. On the one hand, the recent Iranian presidential elections have postponed the likelihood for Iranian oil to hit the market anytime soon. On the other hand, the OPEC+ recent meetings failed to commit new supplies for the second half of the year, despite the fact that demand is forecast to rise by 3 million barrels/day in the second half of the year.

Hence, the imbalances in supply and demand point to further upside in the price of oil, despite the Fed’s hawkishness. Many voices in the market suggest that the Fed will signal the tapering of its asset purchases at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium in August.

Therefore, until August, the US dollar’s strength will likely persist in expectations of the Fed’s message. Yet, as long as it remains above $70, the price of oil remains bid too, threatening with a move above $80 and beyond.

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains At Risk of More Downsides

EUR/USD started a fresh decline and it settled below 1.1900. EUR/JPY is showing bearish signs and upsides are likely to remain limited above 131.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

• The Euro declined below the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels, and tested 1.1800.

• There was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.

• EUR/JPY started a major decline after it failed to stay above the 131.50 support.

• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 131.80 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even settled well below 1.1900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.

A low was formed near 1.1807 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance is near the 1.1828 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1950 level. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1800 level.

If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.1760 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.1700 region. An intermediate support could be near the 1.1720 level.

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remain At Risk of More Downsides

AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7550 level. NZD/USD also declined heavily and it even tested the 0.6920 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

• The Aussie Dollar started a major decline after it failed to clear 0.7600 against the US Dollar.

• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

• NZD/USD also started a major decline from well above the 0.7050 level.

• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6975 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After struggling to clear the 0.7600 resistance, the Aussie Dollar started a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7550 and 0.7520 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even broke the 0.7480 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It spiked below 0.7420 and traded as low as 0.7409 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating losses above the 0.7400 level.

An immediate resistance is near the 0.7430 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7465 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low is also near the 0.7470 level.

To move into a positive zone, the pair must settle above 0.7470 and the 50 hourly SMA. An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7410 level. The next major support is near the 0.7400 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7400 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7350 level.

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Bitcoin Gives Back Its 2021 Gains – What Next?

Bitcoin started the year around $30,000, and now the level acts as support. The euphoria surrounding the cryptocurrency market ended with a 50% decline in the price of Bitcoin and, in some cases, with more.

In the first quarter of the year, Tesla announced that it invested $1.5 billion into Bitcoin. Moreover, it said that it would accept payments for its vehicles in Bitcoin.

The announcement led to massive buying into the crypto space as numerous altcoins entered the bullish territory. As such, Bitcoin rose from $30,000 to over $60,000.

Investors viewed Tesla’s announcement as a sign of further adoption of the cryptocurrencies, thus the bullish run. However, a couple of months later, Tesla announced it had sold some of its Bitcoin holdings and booked a profit just before the end of the first quarter. In fact, the company made a profit on the quarter only from selling carbon credits and some of its Bitcoin holding.

Shortly after the second quarter started, Tesla, through the voice of its CEO, Elon Musk, expressed its concerns about the energy use of mining Bitcoin. As such, it stopped accepting Bitcoin as payment for Tesla cars, but it is unclear if the company sold any of its remaining Bitcoin.

Tesla Q2 Earnings – Key for Future Price Action in Bitcoin

It is unclear if Tesla sold any of its remaining Bitcoin or not, but investors will find out pretty soon. The Q2 2021 earnings season starts now, and investors will look for clues about the company’s crypt holding. If Tesla sold more of its Bitcoin at the higher levels, the bias is that the market will test below $30,000.

From a technical perspective, the market seems to have formed a head and shoulders pattern. Even the fact that the global Bitcoin mining energy use is comparatively negligible does not matter anymore, as the market is unable to bounce.

Moreover, further investments from companies such as MicroStrategy, which announced over $1.5 billion invested in Bitcoin in the second quarter alone, were not enough to lift the price of Bitcoin.

To sum up, if there is one critical event for Bitcoin in the weeks ahead, it is the Tesla Q2 2021 earnings. Any changes in the company’s crypto portfolio may move the market.

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