GBP/USD. April 22, 2021 | Sterling shows correction from 1,40

The British pound has suspended its decline at 1.3900. On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is showing consolidation, however the RSI indicator is still directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling.

The statistics released the day before showed that inflation in the UK in March rose by 0.7% YoY, while the forecast assumed an increase of 0.8% y/y. In February, the consumer price index grew by 0.4% y/y. Core inflation in the country accelerated to 1.1% y/y, which coincided with market expectations. Experts expect the UK CPI to rise as electricity bills rise and fuel prices rise. It can be expected that inflation in the UK will reach 2.0% by the end of this year.

Today, the UK economic calendar is empty, so you should pay attention to the data from the US on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Analysts predict an increase in the indicator to 617 thousand from the previous level of 576 thousand.

EUR/USD. April 26, 2021 | The bulls broke through the 1.2100 level

EUR/USD looks still strong on Monday, despite a slight correction. The current quotation of the euro is 1.2090, and the recent maximum was marked at 1.2115.

The main support for the euro rate is the growing interest of investors in risky assets. An additional positive was the Friday statistics on business activity in the euro area: the PMI index in the service sector in April rose to 50.3 points against the previous value of 49.6. Business activity in the manufacturing sector increased to 63.3 points from the previous 62.5.

At the same time, the indicators of Germany, the largest economy in Europe, disappointed the markets: the index of business activity in the service sector in April fell to 50.1 points from 51.5 earlier, and in manufacturing – fell to 66.4 points from 66.6 in March. And today's IFO business climate index also fell short of forecasts, rising only to 96.8 points (forecast – 97.8).

At the end of last week, the US also shared data on business activity. The PMI index in the manufacturing sector from Markit in April strengthened to 60.6 points from the previous 59.1 points, in the non-manufacturing sector – rose to 63.1 points from 60.4 points in March. Today we should pay attention to the report on orders for durable goods in the US in March. Forecasts assume an increase of 2.5% m/m after a decline of 1.2% m/m in February.

EUR/USD. April 29, 2021 | Dollar weakened after the US Federal Reserve meeting

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair started to rise sharply and reached the level of 1.2150. The US dollar was pressured by the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting and the subsequent speech by the head of the regulator Jerome Powell.

The US Federal Reserve System has left the interest rate unchanged in the target range of 0-0.25% per annum. In addition, the Fed kept the volume of purchases of Treasury bonds in the amount of $80 billion monthly, as well as the purchase of $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities unchanged. The regulator noted that it will continue to buy back bonds until progress is made on GDP and inflation.

The general tone of the Central Bank's comments turned out to be restrained and soft, which put pressure on the dollar's position. Jerome Powell said the economic recovery is still fragile and the coronavirus situation remains worrisome.

The macroeconomic calendar today is presented by data on US GDP for the first quarter of the year and the number of applications for unemployment benefits. The Eurozone will share statistics on inflation in Germany in April.

Brent. April 28, 2021 | Oil rises amid improved forecasts for global demand

Oil prices shifted to growth on the back of optimistic forecasts for global demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel. At the same time, the risks, in the form of the rapid spread of the coronavirus in India and the exceeding expectations of the growth of oil reserves in the United States, limit the rise in prices.

Today, the joint technical committee of OPEC+ has kept the forecast for the growth of global oil demand in 2021 at the level of 6 million barrels per day. Moreover, the organization intends to adhere to plans for a phased release of production restrictions from May to July, which also strengthens producers' confidence in a recovery in global demand.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs bank expect the sharpest jump in oil demand ever – an increase of 5.2 million barrels per day over the next half year. And the easing of restrictions on movement between the countries in May will lead to a recovery in global demand for jet fuel by 1.5 million barrels per day.

Yesterday was published a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which US oil reserves unexpectedly rose by 4.3 million barrels. Today you should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy. Analysts predict an increase in reserves by 650 thousand barrels.

EUR/USD. April 28, 2021 | The pair consolidates under 1.21 in anticipation of the Fed meeting results

Today the EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate below the 1.2100 level ahead of the Fed meeting. The current price of the instrument is 1.2070. It is unlikely that the quotes will be active until the results of the meeting are announced.

Yesterday in the US was published statistics on the house price index for February: the indicator showed an increase of 0.9 m/m against the forecast of growth of 1.0% m/m. A report from the Conference Board was also presented, according to which the consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose sharply in April and amounted to 121.7 points against the forecast of growth to 113.1. The March indicator was marked at the level of 109.0 points. The current value of the indicator has become the highest in 14 months.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, all the attention of market participants is focused on the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve System and its decision on the rate and further monetary policy.

EUR/USD. May 3, 2021 | The US dollar started the week on a minor note

The US dollar ended April on a positive note, but on the first Monday in May, the american currency weakened to 1.2050. The main influence on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair is provided by macroeconomic publications from the USA and the Eurozone.

At the end of last week, the US released data on personal income and spending of Americans in March. Revenues rose 21.1% m/m against the forecast of a rise of 20.1% and the previous decline of 7%. Expenses, in turn, increased by 4.2% on the expectation of an increase of 4.3% m/m and the previous decline of 1.0%. It should be noted that such a rapid growth in income is the result of cash payments to the population.

Additional support to the dollar was provided by the final value of the consumer confidence index in the US from the University of Michigan: in April the indicator rose to 88.3 points against the forecast of an increase to 87.3 and the previous value of 86.5 points.

The European currency was supported this morning by the statistics on the volume of retail sales in Germany in March: in monthly terms the indicator increased by 7.7% against the forecast of growth of only 3%. The annual rate rose 11% after falling 6.6% in February. At the same time, the indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sectors of the eurozone and Germany for April disappointed the markets, falling short of forecasts.

The United States will also publish PMI in the evening. In addition, there will be data on construction costs and the price paid index. And also the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell will make a speech.

GBP/USD. 06.05 | The pair cannot decide on the direction of movement

The GBP/USD pair on Thursday started to rise to 1.3940 after a two-day flat at 1.3900. Today is rich in various events in the UK: attention should be paid to the elections in Scotland, the results of the meeting of the Bank of England and the publication of important economic reports.

The results of the parliamentary elections in Scotland will determine the holding of a repeated referendum on independence from Great Britain. The victory of the ruling national party will speed up the exit of Scotland from the United Kingdom, but this is unlikely to have a strong impact on the pound rate, since the issue of independence will be resolved for several years.

The meeting of the Bank of England is of no small importance today. The regulator decided to keep the base interest rate at 0.1%, and the volume of asset repurchases from the market – at 895 billion pounds. The redemption of government bonds is 875 billion pounds, and the volume of redemption of corporate bonds remained at 20 billion pounds.

Short-term support for the sterling today was provided by data on business activity in the service sector in April in the UK: the indicator rose to 61.0 against the forecast of growth to 60.1 points. In the US today, it is worth paying attention to the publication of the number of applications for unemployment benefits: the report showed that the number of applications fell better than forecast, to 498 thousand. This gave the US dollar some support, which allowed the GBP/USD pair to return to the 1.39 level.

EUR/USD. May 11, 2021 | Dollar continues to decline after Friday's Payrolls report

The US dollar accelerated its decline after the release of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report, according to which the number of new jobs created was almost 25% lower than forecasted – 266 thousand against 1 million. The unemployment rate rose from 6% to 6.1%. The latest statistics turned out to be an unexpected shock for market participants, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of 1.2180.

In total, during the pandemic, the American economy lost 22 million jobs, and about 8 million are still not restored.

Today the pair continues to fluctuate slightly below the 1.22 level. The economic calendar is of little interest. All market participants' attention is directed to the upcoming statistics: on Wednesday the US will publish statistics on consumer prices, on Friday – on retail sales.

The oil market on May 11, 2021

Brent quotes on Tuesday decline from the area of local highs above $69 per barrel. The current price of the asset is $67.50 per barrel.

Black gold is declining amid the gradual reopening of the Colonial Pipeline Co. pipeline system, which suspended operations last Friday due to a hacker attack. This pipeline system is the main source of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel supplies to the US East Coast.

The rapid spread of the coronavirus in India continues to put additional pressure on investor sentiment. The government of the country came face to face with the need to introduce a harsh isolation regime.

In the near future, oil prices can only be supported by data on crude oil reserves in the United States. Analysts expect that statistics from the Ministry of Energy (May 12) will show a decrease in reserves by 2.3 million barrels per week. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by about 400,000 barrels. Today you should pay attention to the monthly OPEC report, which will include data on production in April.

EUR/USD. May 13, 2021 | Dollar remains strong after inflation data

The EUR/USD pair has weakened noticeably after the release of yesterday's statistics on inflation in the US. The current quote for the pair is 1.2050. According to the US Department of Labor, in April, consumer prices rose at their most in almost 12 years due to increased demand amid the opening of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the highest since April 1982. Annualized inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest since 2008.

There is a logical reason for this rise in prices: as the American economy recovers, the consumer is faced with a noticeably reduced supply, which pushes prices up.

Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by macroeconomic reports from the eurozone. According to Eurostat, industrial production in the region rose 0.1% in March, after falling 1.2% a month earlier. Experts forecast an increase of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, the indicator grew by 10.9% against the forecast of 11.6%.

Today we should pay attention to the report on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the producer price index in the United States.

Brent. 18.05 | Oil market reached new highs

The oil market again demonstrates significant growth: Brent quotes rose today to $70 per barrel.

The prices for «black gold» are supported by the improved forecasts for the demand for energy resources, despite the rather weak statistics from the USA and China. For example, in the Celestial Empire, the report on retail sales showed an increase of 17.7%, which is significantly worse than the expected 24.9%.

Investors are quite optimistic, expecting that demand this year will still reach its peaks in the second half of the year. Similar forecasts were presented to OPEC and the International Energy Agency. It should be noted that analysts ignored the difficult epidemiological situation in India, the world's third largest oil importer.

In addition to fundamental factors, Brent quotes are supported by the decline in the US dollar. Greenback is being sold amid the Fed's wait-and-see attitude, as well as weak US macroeconomic reporting. Recent reports indicate that the US economy will not recover as fast as previous forecasts suggested.

EUR/USD. May 20, 2021 | Euro is recovering after yesterday's drawdown

The EUR/USD pair is recovering its positions on Thursday after yesterday's drawdown to the level of 1.2150. The current quote for the pair is 1.2190.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the last meeting. The document says that the US economy is still very far from the regulator's goals, and supply problems continue to impede its recovery. At the same time, it was noted that economic activity has nevertheless increased sharply recently.

Regarding the state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is confident that the growth rates of employment in certain sectors have become lower than they were before. The global outlook for inflation has not changed, and core inflation remains weak and insignificant.

The US dollar weakened somewhat after the publication of the minutes, as the regulator did not clearly indicate its position on stimulating and supporting the economy. As a result, there were rumors in the market that a strong labor market report for May could be a signal for a $ 120 billion reduction in the asset purchase program in June.

At the same time, the European currency is supported by the improved prospects for the economic recovery of the eurozone. If the situation continues to improve, the ECB may consider the possibility of reducing the volume of the quantitative easing program at the end of this year.

EUR/USD. May 25, 2021 | Euro is correcting after strong growth

The euro rate accelerated its growth on Tuesday, breaking through the upper boundary of the sideways trend 1.2150-1.2250. The European currency continues to be supported by the optimism of investors regarding the imminent recovery of global economies. And against this background, the demand for the «safe» dollar is declining, which is putting strong pressure on the American currency.

Additional support for the euro was provided by economic data from Germany. According to the final estimate of the country's Federal Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first quarter of 2021 declined by 1.8% against a projected decline of 1.7%. On an annualized basis, the GDP of Europe's largest economy fell 3.4%, while experts had expected a decline of 3.3%.

The index of business expectations in Germany in May rose to 102.9 points (from 99.2), the forecast assumed the indicator at the level of 101.4 points. The business climate index was 99.2 points (forecast – 98.2 points).

However, the RSI indicator bounced off the resistance area, which signals a weakening of the euro and the return of the EUR/USD pair to the range of 1.2150-1.2250.

EUR/USD. May 27, 2021 | Dollar strengthened on positive macro data

The EUR/USD pair dropped below the level of 1.2200 and the bulls are unlikely to be able to return the euro to the area of local highs in the near future. The current quote of the instrument is 1.2180.

Important macroeconomic statistics were not published yesterday, however, the dollar strengthened against the background of good yields on US government bonds, as well as due to general market neutrality. At the same time, the euro was pressured by data from the GfK company, according to which the leading consumer confidence index for June rose to -7 points from -8.6 points in May, worse than expected.

Today the focus of traders' attention is shifted to the USA, where the GDP data in the second estimate was published. The US economy expanded by 6.4% qoq, worse than expected. The initial level is also fixed at 6.4%. Data on the volume of orders for durable goods in April showed an increase of 1.0%, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts, who had expected an increase of 0.8% m/m.

Also today you should pay attention to the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. The number of Americans who filed new applications for unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected – to 406 thousand. Analysts had expected 425 thousand applications. Taking into account these statistics, we can conclude that the US dollar will continue to strengthen and the pair quotes will return to the 1.2150 area.

European indices Stoxx Europe 600 and DAX on Friday updated records

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.57%, to a record 448.98 points. The German DAX climbed 0.74% and surpassed the 15,500 mark for the first time.

The French CAC 40 gained 0.75% and hit its highest level in 21 years.

The British FTSE 100 indicator rose 0.04%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 added 0.45% and 0.42%, respectively.

Global markets are being supported by signs that the US economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is gaining momentum.

The data on the US labor market, released yesterday, showed a more significant than expected reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country. The number of new applications last week decreased by 39 thousand, to 406 thousand, the lowest since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Analysts on average expected the number of applications to decrease to 425 thousand.

The consensus forecast of experts provides for the growth of the PCE Core index in April by 2.9%, the highest since 1993.

Market participants are also watching talks in Washington on an infrastructure spending plan to further support the economy.

In the fourth quarter of last year, according to revised data, French GDP fell by 1.5%, not 1.4% as previously reported.

Shares in UK developer Vistry Group PLC jumped 4.3% in Friday trading, ranking among the top gainers among the Stoxx Europe 600 components.

Siemens AG, Europe's largest industrial conglomerate, rose 3.8%.

The leaders of the fall were the shares of the Spanish bank Banco de Sabadell SA, which lost 4.5%.

Antofagasta Plc, one of the world's largest copper producers, lost 2.2%.