EUR/USD. March 12, 2021 | Euro sank after ECB meeting

The euro slipped somewhat after the ECB's decision to keep the rate at zero. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1933. The European regulator managed to surprise the markets by announcing plans to significantly increase the rate of asset repurchases in the next quarter. The reason for this decision was the recent rise in government bond yields and fears about a possible jump in inflation in the coming months.

The ECB also raised its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2020 and 2021. This year, the economy is expected to grow by 4% and inflation by 1.5%. Experts note that until the eurozone economy shows a stable recovery, the euro will continue to lag behind its main foreign exchange competitors.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its meeting next week, during which updated economic forecasts will also be presented. Yesterday, the United States published good data on applications for unemployment benefits (712 thousand against the forecast of 725 thousand).

Today you should pay attention to statistics on producer prices and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. We are also monitoring the further fate of the US fiscal assistance package: it is expected that today President Joe Biden will finally sign the corresponding bill.

Brent. March 16, 2021 | Oil continues to decline

Brent crude oil continues to decline during the trading session on Tuesday, trading just below $68 a barrel. Previously, quotes were growing steadily amid hopes for a faster recovery in global economic growth due to the gradual lifting of quarantine restrictions in many regions of the world. However, investors are still worried about the emergence of new strains of coronavirus in Europe, and Italy has even announced the restoration of a partial lockdown in the country.

Despite the local correction, «black gold» retains the potential for further growth. On the side of buyers is strong statistics from China – the largest consumer of oil. Industrial production jumped 35.1% in January-February compared to the same period last year, according to Monday's data. Analysts had expected a more modest gain of 30.5%.

Market participants even assume that oil prices will be able to reach the level of $80 per barrel in the second quarter, after many quarantine measures are lifted and economic activity is restored. Experts predict that global oil demand will rebound by about 6 million barrels a day from last year, after falling by 8.7 million barrels a day in 2020. For the period 2021-2023 demand is projected to grow at more than 9 million barrels per day – the fastest pace since the 1970s.

EUR/USD. March 18, 2021 | The results of the Fed meeting put pressure on the dollar

On Thursday morning, the euro continues to rise to the 1.20 area. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1986. Yesterday there was a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, as a result of which the American currency significantly weakened, having lost control over the level of 1.19.

As market participants expected, the regulator kept the base rate at the level of 0-0.25% per annum. The Fed also made it clear that it does not intend to raise interest rates throughout 2023, despite the rapid recovery of the American economy.

The central bank also improved its forecast for US GDP: now the regulator predicts economic growth by 6.5% in 2021, not 4.2%. Moreover, inflation is expected to exceed the Fed's 2% target this year at 2.4%.

Today you should pay attention to the macro statistics on the US labor market. Analysts expect that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 12 thousand from the previous week, to 700 thousand. If the forecast is confirmed, the US dollar will have an incentive to recover from yesterday's drawdown.

GBP/USD. March 22, 2021 | Sterling moderately grows at the beginning of the week

At the end of last trading week, the pound sterling fell to the 1.3800 area. On Monday, the pair is trying to win back losses, rising to 1.3850.

The latest macroeconomic data from the UK turned out to be rather weak, so the pound is unlikely to strengthen significantly. The pound made some attempts to grow after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England last Thursday. The regulator decided to keep the base interest rate at 0.1%, and the volume of redemption of assets from the market – at 895 billion pounds.

The central bank also noted that if the inflation forecast deteriorates, the monetary policy committee is ready to take any necessary additional actions. However, no tightening of monetary policy is expected until there is confidence in achieving a robust 2% inflation target.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. In the coming days, data on business activity, employment, inflation and retail sales in the UK will be released. Experts expect the numbers to strengthen as mass vaccinations boost confidence and economic activity.

EUR/USD. March 22, 2021 | The euro is trying to close above 1.19

The main currency pair is trading slightly above the 1.1900 level on Monday. The euro is trying to regain the losses of the last week, but this is not happening very confidently. The fact is that the US dollar remains quite stable after the comments and decisions of the FRS following the March meeting. Moreover, the yield on US government bonds continues to rise, which provides fundamental support to the greenback.

The rise in bond yields came after the announcement that the Fed had not extended the benefits for second-tier banks introduced last year due to the coronavirus pandemic. The mechanism was introduced to stimulate bank lending; now, according to the Fed, there is no obvious need for it.

The euro, in turn, is under pressure due to the suspension of Covid vaccinations in Europe with the drug company AstraZeneca. Investors fear that against the background of this, the terms of lockdowns in some European countries will be extended, and this is a certain negative for the European currency.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Attention can only be attracted by the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. However, market participants are unlikely to learn something new, since the head of the regulator has repeatedly commented on the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy.

EUR/USD. March 25, 2021 | Euro fell to the level of 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair continues to be in the clutches of «bears»: the current quotation of the euro is 1.1800.

The strengthening of the dollar is again helped by the rise in the yield of US bonds. In addition, the worsening epidemiological situation in the euro area continues to negatively impact the single currency.

Today we should pay attention to the final data on US GDP for the fourth quarter. These statistics should confirm preliminary estimates that showed a slowdown in the rate of economic decline from -2.8% to -2.4%. Therefore, these statistics are unlikely to have any impact on the market. But the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, the total number of which should once again be reduced, can provide significant support to the dollar. In this case, we expect a further decline in the European currency below the level of 1.18.

EUR/USD. March 24, 2021 | «Bears» are approaching the 1.1800 level

During the trading session on Wednesday, the euro continues to decline. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1825.

The pressure on the European currency is exerted by the prospect of a worsening economic situation in the eurozone countries amid the development of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Many countries in the region are resuming restrictive measures. Including Germany, the largest economy in Europe, where a new quarantine was introduced until April 18. France and Italy are also under severe restrictions that delay the recovery of the entire European region.

The situation is aggravated by the problems with the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which is being phased out by an increasing number of EU countries.

Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the widespread strengthening of the dollar in the market. Greenback is growing after the speeches of D. Powell and D. Yellen in Congress, who said they expect a strong recovery in the US economy this year thanks to successful vaccinations.

The head of the FRS also noted that he does not expect an unwanted acceleration of inflation after the adoption of the stimulus package, adding that the regulator has all the necessary tools to curb the excessive rise in price pressure. Against this background, the dollar index approached the maximum level in the last 4 months.

EUR/USD. March 29, 2021| Euro remains below 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair continues to move within a narrow range of 1.1750-1.1800. The main support for the US dollar last week was provided by economic statistics, which allowed the dollar index to reach a four-month high.

Individual spending fell 1%, while the expected decline was only 0.7%. At the same time, revenues fell 7.1% (vs. 7.3% forecast), and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward (from 83.6 to 84.9). Moreover, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits reached the lowest level for the entire period of the pandemic (684 thousand applications).

The IFO report on the index of the business climate in Germany helped to stop the fall in the euro: the indicator exceeded analysts' expectations, rising to 96.6 points. However, the euro is still under strong pressure from the difference in the epidemiological situation between the US and the eurozone. The United States plans to return to normal life in a few months, while the fight against coronavirus in Europe is far from successful. In Germany, they fear that the third wave of the pandemic will be the most destructive and they propose to return the curfew.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, the pair will continue to fluctuate weakly below the 1.1800 level.

GBP/USD. March 31, 2021 | Pound sterling is corrected after the release of GDP data

The British pound is showing some strengthening today against the dollar after the publication of a block of economic statistics. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3766.

UK GDP in the IV quarter of 2020, according to the final data, grew by 1.3% q/q, while the forecast of an increase of 1.0% q/q. By the end of 2020, the British economy fell by 7.4% y/y against the forecast of a failure of 7.8% y/y. Such indicators can be considered positive, since by the end of a rather difficult year, the British economy was still able to show good results.

At the same time, the property price index in Great Britain in March fell by 0.2% m/m after an increase in February by 0.7% m/m. This is worse than forecasted, but it can be explained by the cold weather this spring and the continued lockdown. In-store prices continued to fall in March and fell 2.4% y/y due to massive discounts, special offers and discounts.

In the evening, you should also pay attention to the data from the United States. The dollar may receive strong support from the ADP statistics, which should show an increase in employment by 380 thousand. And this is a very good result, indicating a confident recovery of the labor market in the United States. If the forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will continue to rise to the area of local highs near 1.3660.

EUR/USD. 31.03 | Euro recovers after falling to 1.1700

Yesterday, the euro slipped even more, falling to the level of 1.1700. The fall was again driven by a jump in Treasury yields amid successful US vaccinations and a faster economic recovery. Back in early January, rates on 10-year bonds were 0.91%, and in March the figure reached 1.77%. The widening yield spread between US and German securities is also an additional negative factor for the European currency.

However, on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is showing some correction: the asset quotes rose to the 1.1735 area. The entire spectrum of risky assets was supported by the publication of China PMI indices. The index of business activity in the service sector in March rose to 56, points against the forecast of growth to 51.9. In the industrial sector, the indicator was 51.9 against expectations of 51.3 points.

Additional support for the pair was provided by the data on employment in Germany. The indicator came out better than the forecast, showing a decrease in the number of unemployed by 8 thousand.

Tonight, attention should be paid to the speech of US President Joe Biden, during which the head of the White House will present a new program of economic assistance in the amount of $1.5-3 trillion.

Brent. April 02, 2021| Oil starts to grow after the OPEC+ meeting

The price of Brent oil started to rise after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the heads of the OPEC+ countries. At the moment, the quotes rose to the level of $65.03 per barrel, the current price of the asset is $64.70.

The alliance, contrary to expectations, decided to gradually increase oil production within three months, starting in May. In particular, the collective increase in the current production level in May will amount to 350 thousand barrels per day, in June – 350 thousand barrels per day, and in July production will grow by 450 thousand barrels per day. Thus, the OPEC+ countries will increase production by more than 1 million barrels in three months.

Saudi Arabia may also cut some of its previously voluntarily assumed additional production limit of 1 million barrels per day. It is noted that the majority of OPEC+ members initially supported the extension of the existing cuts, but the general sentiment changed after Saudi Arabia (the actual leader of OPEC) offered to increase production.

April 05 | EUR / USD technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

The euro / dollar pair opened today directly above the weekly pivot level, then after a small upward wave broke it from top to bottom, testing the DS1 resistance, turned sharply and moved to growth.

Now buyers of EUR / USD are testing the DR1 level, if successful, one can expect further growth to the 1.1800 level, to the DR2 and WR1 lines, to the area of weekly highs.

When planning new deals, do not forget that trades today are held in small volumes and unexpected bursts of volatility and false breakouts of levels are possible.

Daily Pivot - 1.1765;
Daily Resistance 1 - 1.1782, DR2 - 1.1802, DR3 - 1.1819;
Daily Support 1 - 1.1744, DS2 - 1.1727, DS3 - 1.1707.

Weekly Pivot - 1.1752;
Weekly Resistance 1 - 1.1802, WR2 - 1.1842, WR3 - 1.1891;
Weekly Support 1 - 1.1712, WS2 - 1.1663, WS3 - 1.1622.

USD / CHF. 07.04 | Correction to line EMA 21

The US Dollar / Swiss currency pair dropped by about 600 points in yesterday's trading, to the 0.9300 resistance level, reinforced by the 21-day exponential moving average line - EMA 21.

Today, the USD / CHF price has renewed its minimum since March 23, 2020 at 0.9282, trying to gain a foothold below the 0.9300 level. If sellers push through the indicated resistance, I expect a further decline to the level of 0.9200 and below, to the point of convergence of the EMA 60 and EMA 200 lines. In case of a rebound, a new upward wave.

I will watch the price for the appearance of the key level 0.9300 and the appearance of additional signals to enter the market.

GBP / USD. 07.04 | "Rails" from the level 1.3900

The Pound Sterling / US Dollar currency pair formed a "rails" pattern on the chart with yesterday's daily candlestick, based on the resistance level of 1.3900, giving a signal to sell.

The price of GBP / USD has renewed its maximum since March 19 at 1.3918, after which it turned around and moved to a decline. Perhaps we saw a false breakout of the 1.3900 level and the pair will return to the movement within the downtrend.

It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified pattern, while it is safer to wait for the price to fix below the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.

Brent. April 12, 2021 | Oil rises moderately at the start of a new trading week

Brent crude oil continues to trade above $63 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $63.80 per barrel.

Today, oil prices have started to rise on optimism about the recovery of the US economy, but the new wave of Covid-19 in Asia is limiting the rise in quotations. In the United States, about 70 million people have already been vaccinated, and in Europe, after tightening restrictions, the number of new cases of the disease has declined. At the same time, a record number of cases are recorded in India and other Asian countries, which will prevent the restoration of world tourism in the near future.

This week, traders will be presented with monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. They are expected to report on the growing demand from the global economy. Against this background, Brent crude oil may resume its upward movement and go above $64 per barrel.

Last week, the IMF released a forecast that global GDP will grow by 6% this year, which is the fastest pace in 40 years. Traders predict that in the 2nd half of 2021, demand for hydrocarbons will increase and be able to offset the latest OPEC + decision to increase oil production by 2 million barrels between May and July.

EUR/USD. April 12, 2021 | Euro rebounds on strong retail sales data

The European currency is growing on Monday, breaking above the level of 1.1900. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1915.

The euro was supported by data on retail sales in Europe. The index in February increased by 3% compared to January, while the expected growth of 1.5%. Earlier last week, a report on industrial production for February was released, which put pressure on the euro. The indicator fell 1.6% m/m, while the market was expecting a 1.6% m/m gain. A month earlier, the index was down 2.0%.

The USA on Friday presented the March producer price index, which rose 0.7% against the forecast of a rise of 0.2% m/m. In January, the indicator grew by 0.2% m/m.

Today, the US is to release statistics on the execution of the federal budget in March, but this data is not reflected in any way on the exchange volatility. But the comments of the chairman of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell may attract attention.

GBP/USD. April 14, 2021 | Pound weakened after the release of GDP data

The upward dynamics of the pound did not develop and the GBP/USD pair began to decline from the level of 1.3810. The current quote for the pair is 1.3750.

The pressure on the British currency was exerted by weak statistics, according to which GDP growth for the month amounted to only 0.4%, while the forecast was 0.6%. On an annualized basis, the indicator also fell short of the forecasted values, demonstrating -7.8% instead of -7.3%. At the same time, the volume of production in February increased by 1.0% against the expectation of 0.5%.

Moreover, the Bank of England announced that Chief Economist Andy Haldane will leave his position on the Monetary Policy Committee after the June meeting, and this negatively affected the dynamics of the pound. As you know, Haldane is opposed to lowering the interest rate to the negative zone, so now we can assume that this scenario will become more likely.

However, the US dollar is still under pressure, and the yield on Treasury bonds has ceased to strengthen. Yesterday, dollar sales strengthened after the release of data on inflation in the US, which showed an increase of 2.6%. Today we are watching the speech of J. Powell, on whose comments the further dynamics of the dollar depends.

EUR/USD. April 14, 2021 | Euro can easily reach 1.20

EUR/USD continues to rise during Wednesday's trading, reaching 1.1975. The market practically ignored the weak data on business optimism in Germany from the ZEW. According to the data released, the index of economic expectations in April fell to 70.7 from 76.6 in March. Economists had expected the index to be 79.5. The index fell for the first time since November 2020.

The main support for the pair is provided by the continuing pressure on the dollar. The American currency index sank 1.7% in just two weeks, falling below the support of 92.00 points.

The sale of the dollar intensified after the release of statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. The growth of consumer prices in March amounted to 0.6% compared to the previous month, against the forecast of growth by 0.5%. Annual inflation in March amounted to 2.6% against the forecast of 2.5%.

Today we should pay attention to the speech of the FRS Chairman Jerome Powell. If the Fed again points to continued soft monetary policy, the pressure on the dollar will intensify, which will allow euro buyers to gain a foothold above 1.20.

EUR/USD. April 19, 2021 | Euro has reached 1.2040

EUR/USD is showing strong gains at the start of the new trading week, reaching 1.2040. The macroeconomic calendar is empty today, so the main factor behind the weakening of the US dollar is still the decline in the yield on 10-year US government bonds.

At the same time, even positive statistics on retail sales in the United States did not help the greenback improve its positions in a pair with the euro. As a reminder, last week a report was published, according to which retail sales in March rose sharply by 9.8% m/m after falling by 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m.

The main event of this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The regulator must make a decision on the rate (no changes are expected), as well as comment on further policy and the epidemiological situation in Europe.

There are not many American statistics this week: it is worth paying attention to the data on sales of secondary housing and new buildings in March, as well as the parameters of the leading indicators index last month. In addition, there are preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and services sectors from Markit. The eurozone, in turn, will also provide preliminary data on PMIs in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors for April.

EUR/USD. April 16, 2021 | Euro keeps trying to reach the level of 1.20

The EUR/USD pair continues attempts to reach the 1.2000 level. The current quote for the pair is 1.1980.

Yesterday's statistics from the US was rather mixed. Retail sales rose sharply by 9.8% m/m in March after falling 2.7% m/m in February. The forecast assumed an increase of 5.8% m/m. Analysts note that such a strong growth is quite expected: this month the US population again received financial assistance. Moreover, weather conditions have finally stabilized in the United States, making consumers more mobile.

At the same time, the volume of industrial production in the US in March increased by 1.4% m/m against forecasts of growth by 2.7%. However, despite the fact that these numbers are rather weak, they are the highest in the last 8 months.

Statistics on the number of claims for unemployment benefits in the United States showed a decrease to 576 thousand against the previous figure of 769 thousand and the forecast for a reduction to 703 thousand.

Today it is worth paying attention to the final inflation in Europe. The report confirmed the preliminary estimate, which showed earlier growth of the indicator from 0.9% to 1.3%.