EUR/USD. April 24, 2020 – Euro in the range of 1.07-1.08

At the end of the week, the EUR/USD pair continues to decline, having reached 1.0725. The euro came under pressure after the publication of weak PMI indexes of business activity. According to recent data, the composite index in the EU fell to 13 points, which was the strongest drop in the history of observations since 1998.

Experts note that quarantine measures have a negative impact on the European services and manufacturing sector. Moreover, analysts expect European GDP to fall by 7% in 2020.

Yesterday, EU heads of state held a summit to discuss the need to create a new fund for economic recovery. However, despite the criticality of the economic situation, no decision was made on the size of the fund and the sources of its financing. The following negotiations have been postponed to May 6.

Yesterday, the US provided unemployment data, according to which the number of benefits increased by another 4.5 million people. The total number of unemployed Americans rose to 26 million. These data put pressure on the dollar today, which allowed the EUR/USD pair to recover to 1.0775.

EUR/USD. April 28, 2020 – Euro is moderately growing to 1.09

The euro continues to grow on Tuesday, approaching 1.09. The fact is that the US dollar fell across the entire spectrum of the market after the growth of futures for US stock indices. Moreover, the appetite for risky assets increased after many countries presented plans to ease quarantine restrictions for many enterprises.

Today is not rich in macroeconomic publications. Attention may be drawn only by data on home sales in the US secondary market for March (a decrease of 9.7% is expected), as well as an indicator of consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for April.

Market participants remain neutral in anticipation of tomorrow's meeting of the US Federal Reserve. And although analysts do not expect the introduction of any additional incentive measures, the regulator will have to provide relevant estimates of the economic consequences of the virus.

Brent. April 30, 2020 – Oil started to grow, receiving the support of several factors

On Thursday, Brent crude quotes rose to $26.60 per barrel, receiving support from data on crude oil reserves in the US from the country's Ministry of Energy. According to the recent report, stocks of raw materials in US storage facilities grew less than forecast – by only 9 million barrels. The forecast assumed an increase of 10.6 million barrels.

Additional support for oil prices was provided by a general improvement in market sentiment amidst the fact that some countries are considering mitigating the restrictions associated with coronavirus.

Experts also note that from May 1, the terms of the new OPEC+ agreement to reduce global oil production will come into force. Norway also joined the deal, saying that in June the country intends to reduce production by 250 thousand barrels per day, and in the second half of the year – by 130 million barrels.

EUR/USD. May 5, 2020 – Euro declines after weak data emerges from eurozone

On Tuesday, the European currency continues to decline, reaching 1.0840. Sentix data exerted pressure on the euro: the May consumer confidence index fell to -41.8 points against the forecast of a decline to -33.5. Moreover, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany fell in April from 45.4 points to 34.5, while the experts' forecast suggested a fall to 34.4 points. The indicator for the entire region fell to 33.4 points against the forecast of 33.6.

Today, the German Constitutional Court will rule on the ESM incentive program and the EU fiscal pact. The approval of the program can provide some support to the euro.

Earlier the United States provided data on the volume of factory orders in March. The indicator decreased by 10.3% in monthly terms against the previous fact of a decrease of 0.1% m/m and the forecast of a decrease of 9.2% m/m.

Today, you should pay attention to statistics on the producer price index in the eurozone in March. The indicator fell from the level of -0.7% to -1.5%. The United States will present data on the trade balance for March and the index of business activity in the service sector for April.

EUR/USD. May 07, 2020 – Euro continues to trade below 1.08

On Thursday, the euro continues to decline, reaching 1.0785. Pressure on the European currency was exerted by a court decision to challenge Germany’s participation in the eurozone economy stimulus program.

Additional pressure on the asset was provided by weak data from Europe. In particular, the business activity index in the eurozone services sector in April fell from 26.4 points to 12, while the forecast suggested a decrease to 11.7 points. Composite business activity index was 13.6 points against the forecast of 13.5. Moreover, the European Commission has adjusted the forecast for unemployment in the eurozone from 7.5% to 9.6% against the backdrop of the fight against coronavirus.

Moreover, weak macroeconomic data came out in the United States either, however, the «Eurobulls» were not able to take control of the situation. According to ADP, in April, a record 20.236 million Americans lost their jobs.

Today you should pay attention to the data on the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States over the past week.

Brent. May, 11 – Oil continues to decline at the beginning of the new week

At the beginning of the trading week, oil continues to decline to $30 per barrel. However, buyers are able to maintain their positions even against the backdrop of doubts about the success of the new OPEC energy pact, as well as amid the pessimistic comments by Fed representatives about the pace of economic recovery after the pandemic.

Brent remains under pressure from rising stocks and still depressed oil demand. According to data from the IEA published last week, US stocks rose 4.6 million barrels (to 532.2 million barrels). Moreover, inventory growth has been observed for the third week in a row.

Thus, the collapse of demand, coupled with the lack of available storage space for hydrocarbons, will inevitably lead to a further decrease in oil quotes.

EUR/USD. May 13, 2020 – Euro has come under pressure from industrial production data

The euro failed to overcome the level of 1.0880 yesterday and made a decline to the level of 1.0830. Today, data on the volume of industrial production in annual terms were published in the eurozone. The rate of decline increased from -2.2% to -12.9%, which put pressure on the euro. During the day, the EUR/USD pair will continue to decline to 1.08.

Yesterday, the US provided April inflation data, according to which the consumer price index fell to 0.3%. The last time such low inflation was recorded in October 2015.

Today, attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that the head of the regulator will indicate the need to continue the program of quantitative easing and expand the balance of the Fed. In March, BlackRock, through which the bulk of FOMC operations go, announced that the Fed's balance sheet could be expanded to $9 trillion. Today, this figure is $6.72 trillion.

The expansion of the balance traditionally leads to a weakening dollar, since an increase in the money supply leads to a depreciation of the national currency.

EUR/USD. May 15, 2020 – Euro is stable at 1.08

The pair EUR/USD remains stable near the level of 1.08 at the end of the week, being influenced by multidirectional factors. On the one hand, American statistics are mixed, which puts pressure on the dollar. And on the other hand, the indicators of Europe are also not encouraging, and the region remains in quarantine.

Today it is worth paying attention to a whole block of interesting macroeconomic statistics. The eurozone presented its second estimate of GDP for the first quarter: the economy contracted at 3.8%. In annual terms, the region’s GDP decreased by 3.2%.

In the evening, the US will publish retail sales data for April – analysts expect a strong drop in the indicator (by 12.0% on a monthly basis). In March, the indicator fell by 8.7% m/m. The volume of industrial production in April will also arouse the interest of traders: the indicator may decline by 11.3 m/m.

Pending this data, the pair will continue to fluctuate near the level of 1.08.

EUR/USD. May 26, 2020 – Euro rose sharply to 1.0970

On Tuesday, the euro started to rise sharply, reaching 1.0970. Support for the currency was provided by the statistics on the consumer climate index GfK in Germany in June: the figure recovered to -18.9 points after falling to -23.4 in May. The improvement of the index gave a signal about the consumer’s readiness to quit quarantine completely, which is not bad both for the German economy and for the economy of the entire eurozone.

In the afternoon, attention should be paid to the publication of the ECB's report on financial stability, but it is unlikely to bring any surprises, since all relevant information is constantly coming from the eurozone finance ministers in the process of agreeing on a stabilization fund of 500-600 billion euros.

In the evening hours data on sales of new homes in the United States in April will be published. Experts predict a sharp decline to 492 thousand against the March figure of 627 thousand. In addition, the May value of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which could recover to 87.1 after the April decline to 86.9, will be of interest.

EUR/USD. May 28, 2020 – The pair is consolidating at 1.10

Yesterday, the euro showed significant appreciation, reaching the level of 1.1035. The European currency was supported by news that the European Commission was ready to agree on an additional package of assistance to the region’s economy in the amount of 750 billion euros. However, the optimism of market participants did not last long – the euro quotes began to decline after the speech of the ECB chairman Christine Lagarde.

The head of the regulator said that the eurozone economy could lose 8-12% on the negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The «soft» scenario for the development of the region’s economy for 2020, which implies a 5% decline in GDP, has already become irrelevant. Thus, the pair fell to the level of 1.10.

Today is full of interesting statistics from the USA. The States will provide a preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. The economic slowdown is expected to be 4.8%. Additional pressure on the US dollar today may have data on orders for durable goods: their volume should decrease by another 19.0%. Repeated applications for unemployment benefits can also set a new record - their growth is expected to reach 26.180. Thus, Thursday may turn out to be a black day for the US currency, which will allow EUR/USD quotes to return to the area above 1.10.

GBP/USD. June 01, 2020 – Sterling grows steadily to an area above 1.24

The British sterling continues to show an upward trend, reaching a level of 1.24. The currency is supported by the general weakening of the US dollar after statistics released on Friday and D. Trump's speech at a press conference.

In particular, the Chicago PMI index in May fell from 35.4 to 32.3 points. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 73.7 to 72.3 points over the same period. Even more market participants were disappointed with the report on personal expenses in the USA: according to published data, personal expenses in the USA decreased by 13.6% against the forecast of a decrease of 12.6%.

Donald Trump during his speech said that he was stopping WHO funding, and also again accused China of hiding information about the dangers of coronavirus.

Today, Britain presented a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector for May. The index recovered to 40.7 points from multi-year lows in April, which provided additional support to sterling. This week, you should pay attention to the report on activity in the services sector in England, which will be released on Wednesday. If statistics disappoint markets, the Bank of England is likely to cut rates or expand the QE program at a meeting in June.

EUR/USD. June 03, 2020 – Euro overcomes 1.12 level for the first time since early March

An optimistic atmosphere prevails on global markets, and the euro has reached 1.1200. Demand for risky assets is growing as market participants focused on the prospects for business recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, despite ongoing riots in the United States.

In addition to the general weakening of the US dollar in the Forex market, the impact on the euro is expected by tomorrow's meeting of the ECB, according to which the regulator can increase the program for the purchase of financial assets by 500 billion euros and extend this program after 2020.

Today, you should pay attention to the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector for May and data on the labor market from ADP. Analysts predict an increase in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits after a sudden decrease last week. Moreover, a new record value is predicted - 26,690 thousand. These data can put further pressure on the exchange rate of the American currency.