07.02. Euro updated its minimum at 1.0950

The euro continues to update lows in the 1.0950 area. Moods at global sites remain negative amid continued growth in infections and deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus. High infection rates limit risk appetite.

The dollar continues to receive support from the publication of macroeconomic reports from the United States. ISM indices and ADP data released this week turned out to be significantly better than analysts' forecasts, which provided significant support to the American currency.

Today, you should pay attention to official statistics on the US labor market. If the data reflect the increase in the number of new jobs in the US economy in January, the dollar will be able to finish the week at very favorable levels.

Fundamental Brent analysis for February 11, 2020

Today, Brent quotes show some growth during the morning trading, although the risks of further decline are still elevated. Oil prices were supported by the comments of the Energy Minister of Kazakhstan that the OPEC+ countries intend to postpone the ministerial meeting from March to the end of February.

Last week, the OPEC+ Technical committee recommended that countries increase oil production by 0.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year amid a decline in demand for raw materials from China. However, OPEC+ member countries have not yet expressed a unified position on this recommendation, which does not allow prices for «black gold» to demonstrate a steady recovery from local lows.

Today, you should pay attention to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on US crude oil reserves. Analysts expect an increase in reserves of 3 million barrels. If the forecast is confirmed, pressure on Brent will resume again.

GBP/USD. February 13, 2020 – Sterling confidently broke through the level 1,30

The sterling is growing steadily today, breaking the level of 1.30 The pair is under the multidirectional influence of several factors at once. On the one hand, in the credit market, there is a decrease in the yield spread of 10-year UK/US government bonds, which is negative for the British currency.

On the other hand, macroeconomic data from the UK provided some support to the pound. Despite the fact that statistics for the IV quarter of 2019 showed stagnation of the economy, annualized growth was 1.1%. Analysts had expected a slowdown of 0.8%. Industrial production did not grow as much as analysts had expected, but Britain recorded an unexpected trade surplus in December amid a jump in metal exports (0.85B).

Thus, the pound is growing, the main goal of the «bulls» is the area near the level of 1.3050.

EUR/USD. February 17, 2020 – Euro remains in the area of two-year lows

The sentiment on global sites remains moderately optimistic amid the lack of negative news on the topic of coronavirus. The growth rate of new cases of diseases decreased again after the jump caused by the use of a new method for diagnosing the virus. As a result, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0840, remaining in the area of two-year lows.

Today's news background is calm, and in the week you should pay attention to the macroeconomic data block for January. PMI business activity indices in the European Union and the USA will be published on Friday. If statistics show deterioration, risky assets may again be under pressure.

Today, the pair will be trading primarily in a sideways manner near 1.0840.

USD/CAD. February 19, 2020 – Looney grows in anticipation of inflation data

Today, the USD/CAD pair is showing a decline after strong growth the day before. The instrument continues to move within the trading range of 1.32-1.33, reacting to the publication of macroeconomic data from the US and Canada.

Yesterday, the US dollar managed to grow to 1.3280 after the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: in February the index rose from 4.8 to 12.9 points. Statistics from Canada, on the contrary, reflected a decline in production sales in December by 0.7% m/m after a decline of 1% m/m last month.

However, today Canadian dollar began to grow in anticipation of data on the consumer price index of Canada, which will be published today in the evening. Experts expect annual inflation to rise to 2.3% in January against growth to 2.2% in December. If the forecast is confirmed, the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will decide to mitigate monetary policy will decrease significantly, and the Canadian dollar will receive an incentive for further growth.

EUR/USD. February 21, 2020 – Dollar continues to strengthen

Negative sentiment at global sites has been rising again due to a sharp increase in the number of coronavirus infected in South Korea. At the same time, the markets continue to trend towards the strengthening of the US dollar, which is growing in tandem with the main currency competitors.

Yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed index of business activity was published, which rose sharply to 36.7 points. Positive regional data give reason to expect an increase in the ISM business activity index for the United States as a whole, which supports the dollar.

Statistics on business activity in Europe were published today. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in Germany increased from the level of 45.3 to 47.8 points. Experts predicted a decline to 44.8. The IHS Markit composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) in France also rose – to 51.9 points in February from 51.1 in January. Analysts predicted a value of 51.0 points.

However, these statistics provided the euro only temporary support – the pair managed to rise slightly above the 1.08 level, but the growth was quickly replaced by a decline. During the day, the euro will continue to fall to an area below 1.08.

EUR/USD. February 26, 2020 – Euro declines from 1.09

Negative sentiment continues to dominate global markets as investors fear the coronavirus epidemic could escalate into a global pandemic. As you know, the number of cases outside of China continues to grow steadily.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced that the vaccine against the virus would be ready soon, and also announced the upcoming cut in taxes on the middle class in the United States, but this news did not support the dollar. The current quotation of the pair is 1.0870.

The euro has been strengthening for several days. Currency is supported by technical factors: most carry trade operations in emerging markets are funded by the euro, which is strengthened when investors withdraw from risky assets.

However, the coronavirus continues to spread throughout Europe, which puts European currency at risk. During the day, we expect a decrease in the euro from the level of 1.09.

USD/CAD. February 28, 2020 – Canadian dollar updates lows

The Canadian dollar is showing a strong fall at the end of the week. The current quotation of the USD/CAD pair is 1.3465. The main pressure on the loonie rate is provided by the situation in the oil market, where Brent quotes fell below the level of $50 per barrel. Prices fell to a minimum of two years, as investors fear that the coronavirus epidemic could be the biggest shock to the economy since the 2008 crisis.

Next week, the Bank of Canada will hold a meeting at which the regulator may surprise market participants with a lower rate, despite the main forecast assuming that the rate remains at 1.75%. The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee is gradually lowering its confidence regarding the weak influence of coronavirus on the country's economy.

Today, attention should be paid to the publication of quarterly and monthly reports on GDP. Analysts expect a significant slowdown in growth in the IV quarter, so the Canadian dollar may continue to fall to 1.35.

EUR/USD. March 03, 2020 – Euro firmly fixed above 1.11

The euro did not manage to overcome the level of 1.1185 and it again started to decline to the area of 1.11. At global sites, the appetite for risky assets is recovering after the ECB, the US Federal Reserve and other world Central Banks announced their readiness for additional monetary stimulation of the economy to mitigate the detrimental effects of coronavirus. Moreover, today representatives of G7 countries will discuss a package of measures aimed at minimizing the consequences of the epidemic.

Today is not rich in significant macro statistics, and the dynamics of trading will be determined mainly by the news background on the topic of coronavirus. However, you should pay attention to inflation data in the eurozone. Consumer price growth slowed from 1.4% in January to 1.2% in February.

The euro continues to strengthen from the level of 1.11. During the day, «eurobulls» will rise to the level of 1.1150.

EUR/USD. March 05, 2020 – The euro slowed down its growth at the level of 1.12

The level of 1.1200 restrains further growth of the European currency, the current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1170. The day before the US dollar was under pressure after an unexpected Fed rate cut by 50 bp at once. However, yesterday evening this pressure slightly decreased amid the publication of strong labor market data from ADP and the ISM index in the service sector, which in February rose from 55.5 to 57.3.

Today it became known that the California authorities in the United States announced an emergency mode because of the risks of the coronavirus spread, and Italy decided to close schools until March 15 in the fight against the epidemic. The news signals that the risks of a recession in many economies are still extremely high.

Today you should pay attention to the weekly statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Experts predict a decrease in the number of calls from 219 thousand to 215 thousand.

EUR/USD. March 10, 2020 – Euro fell from highs to 1.1325

The growth of the European currency was stopped by the level of 1.15 – EUR/USD quotes fell on Tuesday to around 1.1325. Yesterday, a drop in the oil market to $32 per barrel triggered a collapse of major indices around the world. In addition, the continued spread of coronavirus outside of China also continues to put pressure on world markets.

It became known that Italy introduced a regime of emergency measures to combat the virus throughout the country, and the head of WHO said that the outbreak of the virus is already very close to becoming a pandemic. The presence and further spread of coronavirus in Europe puts pressure on the euro.

The US dollar, in turn, is under the negative impact of rising yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds and expectations of a Fed rate cut immediately by 70 bp. on the meeting of the American regulator on March 18.
During the day, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow from the level of 1.1325.

EUR/USD. March 12, 2020 – Euro weakens awaiting ECB meeting

Negative sentiment caused by a statement by the World Health Organization (WHO) has returned to global markets. Yesterday, WHO officially assigned pandemic status to the spread of the virus Covid-19, which put strong pressure on the entire block of risky assets. Additional pressure on the markets had a 30-day US ban on entry to the country for all travelers from Europe.

The pair EUR/USD is trading at 1.1250. The euro is moderately declining, under pressure from the words of the ECB head K. Lagarde. The politician said that in the absence of coordinated actions by the authorities, the situation in the EU economy could develop according to the 2008 crisis scenario.

Today, attention should be paid to the ECB meeting. Market participants expect the regulator to introduce a range of monetary incentives, and the scale of measures taken is of particular interest.

At the same time, the US dollar received support after the release of inflation data in the country. Annual inflation in February slowed to 2.3%, better than forecasted.