19.11. Global stocks hit two-year highs

Today world stocks reached two-year highs, as investors still believe that the US and China will be able to close a deal and put an end to a destructive trade war. The two largest economies in the world are negotiating a deal, which must end the 18-month trade conflict that shook global markets, but at the same time Washington is intending to introduce additional duties on Chinese goods on December 15.

Despite the lack of clarity on the progress of the talks,  investors are encouraged by the growing hopes to reduce recession risks. Moreover, monetary easing by large central banks, such as China, has also helped to strengthen investors sentiment towards stocks.

Thereby, the global MSCI index, which tracks stocks in 47 countries, added 0.1%, reaching the highest level since last January. European stocks also rose: Euro STOXX 600 added 0.4%, peaking since July 2015. Indices in Frankfurt (GDAXI) and London (FTSE) rose 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Futures on Wall Street (ESc1) also showed a positive start, adding 0.2%.

21.11. Russia expects Nord Stream 2 to begin operations in mid-2020

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said that Russia’s Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is expected to begin operations in mid-2020,  despite opposition from some European countries and the United States.

The States affirm that the gas project will increase Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, which runs counter to the interests of the White House. As a result, the United States were putting pressure on European countries to slow down the Russian project.

For example, Denmark issued a permit to build a gas pipeline in the country's exclusive economic zone only at the end of October. Earlier, the Russian president called on the Danish authorities not to succumb to pressure from the United States and to defend their sovereignty.

Recall that Nord Stream-2 will run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea from the coast of Russia to the coast of Germany. The throughput of the pipe is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The project cost is estimated at 10 billion euros.

25.11. Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg officially announces he's running for president

The billionaire former mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg officially announced on Sunday that he was running for president in 2020 as a Democrat.

Earlier Michael Bloomberg, whose fortune is estimated at $45 billion, abandoned the idea of running in the presidential race after former US Vice President Joe Biden (who was seen by everyone as an unconditional leader) went to the polls. But in the last two months, Biden’s position has been shaken and Senator Elizabeth Warren, of extremely left-wing views, began to take the lead.

But this was not long and soon Warren began to lose to the incumbent US president. This fact made Democrat-centrist Michael Bloomberg take the decision to return to the presidential race.

The billionaire said: «The US cannot afford four more years of President Trump's reckless and unethical actions. He represents an existential threat to our country and our values. If he wins another term in office, we may never recover from the damage».

So, on Sunday there appeared the first pre-election video of Michael Bloomberg started on television – he spent $34 million on this advertisement, which will be broadcast on the air for another week. It is noted, that Bloomberg is going to finance the campaign completely from his own funds and not accept donations.

27.11. US GDP growth revised up to 2.1%

According to the press release from the US Department of Commerce, the US economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace in the III quarter, which exceeded forecasts. Analysts expected to maintain the indicator at the level of the first estimate of 1.9%.

In the first quarter of 2019, the American GDP growth in annual terms amounted to 3.1%, in the second – 2%. In the 2018 the figures were the following: in the first quarter the growth was 2.5%, in the second quarter – 3.5%, in the third – 2.9%, in the fourth – 1.1%.

Economists believe that economic growth was caused by a stronger pace of inventory accumulation and a less steep decline in business investment.

29.11. Eurozone inflation rises quicker than expected in November

According to preliminary estimates of European statistical agency Eurostat, annual inflation in 19 countries of the Eurozone in November jumped to 1% from 0.7% in October. Analysts predicted acceleration of inflation to 0.9%.

A year earlier, in November 2018, annual inflation in the eurozone was 1.9%. According to preliminary estimates, core inflation in November amounted to 1.3% against the level of October at 1.1%.

The acceleration of inflation in the region was caused by a rise in food and services prices. Core inflation excluding food and energy prices picked up to 1.5% from 1.2% a month earlier, beating expectations for 1.3%. The inflation excluding alcohol and tobacco prices, accelerated to 1.3% from 1.1%, ahead of forecasts for 1.2%.

03.12. Trump: The deal with China will have to wait until the 2020 elections

U.S. President Donald Trump noted that he could postpone the signing of a trade agreement with China for an indefinite period, until the US presidential election in November 2020. Such news alarmed the markets, depriving hopes for a quick resolution of a trade dispute, that slows down the global economy.

At a meeting with reporters, Trump said that he was ready to wait until the election. At the same time, the American president continues to insist that the deal should fully comply with the interests of the United States, otherwise it simply may not take place.

Following Trump's comments, stock prices in Europe and the Chinese yuan fell to local lows.

05.12. The number of filing applications for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 10 thousand

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week ending November 30, hitting their lowest level in seven months. The indicator decreased by 10 thousand compared to the previous week and amounted to 203 thousand.

The indicator of the previous week amounted to 213 thousand.

Analysts had expected the number of initial applications to grow by 2 thousand compared to the previous week and will amount to 215 thousand.

10.12. Oil prices are in the red amid worries about a trade war

Oil prices continue to decline on Tuesday, as concerns over slowing demand outweighed optimism after reaching an OPEC + agreement to increase production cuts in early 2020.

Futures for Brent fell to $63.80 per barrel, and futures for US light oil WTI – to $58.65 per barrel. Experts note that the euphoria over the decline in oil production was short-lived, and an unexpected drop in exports from China underlined the effects of the trade conflict. Exports from China in November fell by 1.1% year on year, while analysts had expected growth by 1%.

Moreover, since the start of the OPEC agreement to reduce oil production, the United States has been able to increase production by 4 million barrels per day. Members of the organization understand that the United States can either completely push them out of the market, or OPEC countries will have to increase production, which will immediately bring down the oil market.

12.12. China and US negotiate ahead of new round of tariffs

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said today that Beijing and Washington are in close contact on a further trade agreement. At the same time, the Ministry declined to comment on possible retaliatory steps if the United States imposes additional tariffs on imports from China this week.

On Sunday, December 15, the US is due to introduce new fees for almost $160 billion of Chinese imports, including video game consoles, computer monitors and toys. Today US President D. Trump intends to meet with top trade advisers to discuss this step. If a decision to impose tariffs is nevertheless made, it could disrupt US-China talks to end the 17-month-long trade war between the world's two largest economies.

The future of today’s discussions is not yet known, however, in the case of the introduction of American tariffs, China intends to apply a tough response: restoring of 25% tariff on US-made vehicles and 5% tariff on auto parts. Fees for many goods will also be involved,  ranging from corn and wheat to small aircraft and rare-earth magnets.

17.12. The price of palladium topped $2 thousand per ounce

The cost of palladium today set a new historical record, exceeding $2 thousand per troy ounce.The price of the metall in the morning hours reached $2000.5, subsequently rolling back to $1945.45.

Experts attribute the rising cost of palladium to concerns about metal supplies. Also, the rise may be due to a sharp increase in demand in the automotive industry in Europe and China. Palladium is used in the manufacture of exhaust catalysts for gasoline engines, and since the largest countries are tightening environmental requirements for vehicles, demand for metal will continue to grow.

Last week the price of palladium once updated its historic high at $1914, for the first time overtaking the price of gold.

19.12. China exempts a number of American goods from duties

After the United States and China announced the conclusion of the first phase of trade deal, Beijing unveiled a new list of exempted from duties goods from the United States. The exemption from tariffs will enter into force on December 26 and will last a year, until December 26, 2020.

Tariffs will be canceled for six categories of products, including white oil, high density polyethylene and linear low density polyethylene. The total value of imported goods is not specified.

Last Friday, Washington and Beijing announced the approval of the text of the first part of the trade agreement, under which the parties agreed not to introduce new duties on each other. On Sunday, U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer said that the signing of the first phase of the transaction will take place in early January 2020.

He also noted that this agreement will lead to an almost twofold increase in US exports to China in the next two years, since it implies an increase in China's purchases of US agricultural, industrial and energy products.

23.12. Gold rises weakly in anticipation of details of the trade agreement

The price of gold is growing slightly on Monday, market participants are waiting for further news from the front of the trade war. The cost of the February gold futures on Comex New York Stock Exchange reached $1.488.95.

On Saturday, US President D. Trump confirmed that a trade agreement with China, which the parties have been negotiating for more than a year, will be signed soon. However, the details of the deal are not specified.

Market participants are concerned about the lack of additional information, as well as the fact that China has protested to the United States regarding the inclusion of items on supporting protesters in Hong Kong in the draft defense budget for 2020.