EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 17, 2019

The euro major pair is consolidating close to the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart after its recent drop on Friday. Nonetheless, the pair has a possibility to bounce upward.

There was a boost for the pair to move lower due to the US retail sales data which strengthened the dollar. It was not able to hold the level as high as 1.1343 at the beginning of the week even to 1.1200 after the release.

The Fed meeting is anticipated to be dovish that makes the market uncertain if the rate cut will push through, although there is a chance for the price to be reduced by as much as 20% at the beginning of the European session.

On the one hand, the futures market did not turn hawkish after the retail sales, as it simply means an extended rate cut took place earlier than anticipated. The possibility of another two rate cuts in the past meeting is still on the plate.

There is not much expected in the economic calendar except for the speech of Draghi today and tomorrow. Even so, the previous one did not really have an impact on the market. Thus, there might also be no reaction this week.

Although, a short surge in volatility could take place due to the expected inflation data from the euro.

There is a horizontal support level at 1.1204 on the 4-hour chart. This level plays an important role, considering the 1.12 level and the 200-MA close to it. A bounce off may take place when the decline fades this week. There was an important rally in late May that supports the decline in the early June.

There is a strong downward impetus on the hourly chart, considering that there was a bear pattern last week while aiming for 1.1260. When the pair reaches this figure, there is support found below on the descending channel.

Moreover, since the pair strengthened after the release of the retail sales, it implies the strong presence of sellers and they are determined to take the lead. Hence, recovery is not far from happening at the moment.

We can expect resistance at 1.1237 in the next trading session and a confluence with 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. If this succeeds, it opens the possibility of the pair to reach the resistance of 1.1260. Any significant changes may occur after the Fed meeting and for now, trading promotes a range-bound movement.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 20, 2019

The EUR/USD trend will be relative to trader’s sentiment to the level of 1.1307 with an upward momentum. If the price stayed over the level of 1.1318, this would confirm the upward trend. However, there is a chance for the pair to shift downward if they did not succeed to reach the support 50% at 1.1270.

The common currency is trading above the US dollar and adjust with the chances of a rate cut in July, influenced by a dovish monetary policy of Fed and rhetorics by Fed chair, Jerome Powell. The Fed fund futures also shows that traders places their bets on rate cuts for the months of July, September and December.

The euro major pair is trading slightly above the level when the ECB President Draghi expressed his dovish sentiments on Tuesday. Hence, it means that markets will either square (close their existing positions) or cover for the rally. However, if the buyers are successful in the level above 1.1348, this can shift the trend.

Overall, the trend is downward looking at the daily chart. The trend shifted downward when the sellers try to take the bottom level of 1.1204. A breakthrough to 1.1181 would mean a continuation of the descending trend. The major retracement area is around 1.1270 to 1.1318, which can act as resistance.

A prolonged move above 1.1307 signifies the presence of buyers, which could lead to a short-rally at 1.1318. However, if the market fails to break the level of 1.11307 and consolidate at this level would indicate the presence of sellers.

The upward momentum can be confirmed of the price movement towards 1.1318 is sustained but could turn downward when the support level fails at 1.1270 (50%).

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 25, 2019

The euro major pair was seen trading a bit lower prior to the opening of the US session. It was able to exceed the peak for five consecutive sessions before its decline. Hence, there is a chance for the common currency to close with the bearish tone with top price reversal. If this happens, the trend could result in a break for two to three days.

However, a price reversal would not necessarily change the trend downward. On the other hand, it shows that the sales are more ideal compared to buying at the current rate, which in most cases would mean that there is excessive impetus directed upward.

The main trend shows an upward direction based on the daily chart, which was confirmed by a successful breakout of buyers. Meanwhile, the trend is moving downhill when considering intraday trading when the market has a downward sentiment.

In case that the price moves to 1.1413, this would mean the dominance of buyers as they try to sustain below 1.1398 in order to have a top price reversal.

The support levels around retracement area of 1.1318 to 1.1278 should be given importance, which will also affect the short-term direction of the euro major pair.

Overall, the movement of the pair will depend on the trader’s reaction to yesterday's closing level of 1.1398. If the price stays around 1.1398 will signify the presence of buyers while a decline from the said level would signal the dominance of sellers. A breakthrough 1.1413 would emphasize the strengthening of buyers and if there is enough momentum, the price will likely look for a momentum to reach 1.1413. Furthermore, reaching the price level of 1.1448 will shift the trend upward. A price movement sustained below 1.1398 would indicate the presence of sellers with the initial target of 1.1381.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 1, 2019

Volatility is present early this week following the previous range-bound trading of the various instruments in the market in the background of ongoing US-Sino trade talks. News on tariff and restriction to Huawei telecom company pushed the equity markets higher and pressured the dollar. Although, this may not last long.

Moreover, pessimistic forecasts of several fundamental data such as the Manufacturing PMI from European countries will further weigh on the common currency. This is in line with the global economic situation in China and Japan, as well as other Asian countries.

The euro major pair has made a significant breakdown today. Other major pairs also experienced such event as seems like a reversal in short-term. However, we should take note of the 200-MA, which is being tested by the US dollar index that could trigger the pair to decline.

Previously, the center of interest was on the fall of the pair at the level of 1.1347. Aside from it being the resistance level, it had a confluence on the 200-MA on the daily and weekly chart.

As for the support, there were several attempts until it broke down earlier this day, which can become the resistance level. Staying on the levels below could induce a correction to the pair and likely to rise higher than 1.1385, which will be favorable for the EUR/USD bulls.

For now, we can expect strong support at 1.1305 with confluence to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. Overall, the short-term gives a bearish tone and a breakout to 1.1385 would confirm the continuation of the previously bullish sentiment in the markets.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 3, 2019

This week began with a decline and the momentum of the EUR/USD pair may have lost. The pair closed on a flat after a failed rally higher than the level of 1.1300. The most recent news on the trade truce between the US and China is the root of strength for the dollar but this may not move steadily.

Another important factor is the gold prices as it moves relative to the economic developments in the US. The yellow metal almost broke down to fresh six year-high that could mean that the increase of the dollar may be almost over.

Today, data from ADP on employment is expected which will give a hint on the US labor market. Thursday is a holiday and this can bring volatility after the closing of the European session.

The indicator was seen at the level of 1.1260 and close to the 100-MA. A strong confluence is possible around 1.1265, which can become resistance and was the peak in the month of May. This kept the pair lower after a few tries and was successfully broken at the beginning of June.

Reaching the level upward to 1.1300 can become difficult. A horizontal level can be at 1.1305 on the daily chart. However, looking at it, a steady move to 1.1300 is needed by bulls.

On the other end, a breakdown lower than the support confluence with the next target at the horizontal level of 1.1237,  which is also where the rising channel moves downward since the low level in May.

Nonetheless, the US jobs data to be released today and on Friday may cause a bullish reversal. At the same time, trading may be thin given that tomorrow is a holiday.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 5, 2019

Analysts are looking hoping for growth in the labor market after it failed to meet expectations of previous month’s reading. The job report for today will determine the course of the Fed in July since the strength of labor will have a significant role in the action of Fed. Hence, an exceeding report can result for an easing or the other way around.

The Euro major pair is in the important situation prior to the release of the jobs report given that there is downward confluence on the support. For the past couple of days, the pair was seen consolidating above.

In particular, there is a horizontal level at 1.1264, which held the pair twice below in May. The 100-MA was close around this area enough for a confluence.

Furthermore, there is a support as it bounces below in the rising channel from previous lows in late May. Moreover, there is a 61.8% retracement found from middle of June lows, as well in the 50% retracement from May lows close to the level of 1.1264.

Given the confluence below on the support level, the results for NFP data has to come out with positive results in order for the EUR/USD pair to close below. The data will have a major impact on short-term trend. Yet, the resistance above keeps the pair lower at the beginning of the week. A bullish breakout will confirm the beginning of trend reversal.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019

Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations.

Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing.

The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged.

A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far.

The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week.

It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below.

There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 17, 2019

Markets are still not sure on how the Fed will be on the next meeting scheduled at the end of the month. Rhetorics from Fed member, Evans has triggered a deep decline last week by half a percent at the end of the year. Investors are following the data releases closely, concerned by the possibility of the ECB to follow the Fed in monetary easing.

Yesterday, the euro major pair dropped below the support of 1.1237. Consequently, the pair broke to the range which was sustained for almost a week. The fall of the trend opened the path to the psychological handle of 1.1200 and further below seems attractive. 

The support of 1.1188 remained higher in the middle of June, which then resulted to a rally above 1.1400. In turn, this will be the border limit for the EUR/USD bulls.

In the short-term, traders will likely to meet resistance to the level of 1.1237, which was the lower border in the previous range. It may push the pair above 1.1265 to make it attractive for bulls. After a break in the range, bears have taken over for short-period of time.

After the inflation headline, the euro major pair rose slightly from support with an upward resistance met at 1.1237 as mentioned earlier. The next downward level will probably 1.1188 to be significant.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 22, 2019

There were volatile movements last week as Fed members give their opinions with a majority seems to be tilting to policy easing. However, one Fed member opinion to wait should be noted. This results in a sharp decline in the pair and surge in volatility on different assets on Friday.

Thereby, markets focal point will be on the ECB with an expected schedule on Thursday.

Previously, the ECB had a hawkish sentiment, which is unexpected and furthermore, the price hike is postponed but it still in consideration.

On the other hand, the ECB president gives off a dovish sentiment since the postponement, which is hoping to be confirmed on the upcoming Thursday meeting.

Meanwhile, markets are still eyeing the Fed but are expected to diminish in the coming week. Aside from the ECB meeting, the Fed has this “blackout period” as they remain quiet without any interviews. Although, this will likely be transient.

Lastly, the latest GDP data will be published from the US on Friday, which is considered important prior to the meeting of the central bank.

It seems that the pair tries to break a flag pattern that gives a bullish sentiment considering last week’s rally. However, given the sharp drop from Thursday high, I don’t have high hopes for a bullish flag.

Moreover, it seems that the euro major pair is placed between the 1.1200 and 1.1280. For now, the pair is at the lower limit of the range. The declining trend following a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is likely to put pressure on the recovery rally of the pair in the next trading hours.

If the pair breaks beyond the range early this week, we can expect strong trading, where the ECB becomes the main driver in the direction for this week movement. Hence, the attention of investors will be directed to the ECB actions if they will also proceed with policy easing.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 25, 2019

Markets are hoping for a dovish sentiment from the ECB since other central banks have made their decisions. Although, this if not far from the June ECB meeting but not as dovish than expected. This resulted in an increase and then Draghi expressed their sentiments on considering the risks.

Now, the markets are considering easing from the ECB even today’s meeting. Although, some analysts have different opinions in mind as they are expecting it in September instead. Overall, volatility will highly depend on the decision, either become dovish or hawkish than anticipated by the markets.

Thus, we can expect a reaction given the markets’ statement of a probable rate cut. This time is different from the previous meetings since it is not about the press conference. If the price further declines, it is not far from stops induced below 2019 low, which can minimize volatility. Thus, I would aim for the level of 1.14027.

If we push lower from here, I think it is inevitable that stops will get triggered below the 2019 low. This can trigger a volatile downside move. In such a scenario, I would be looking for a move to 1.1027.

However, if the price turns out bullish, there can be few levels to be considered important. Initially, it will be around 1.1184, which was the previous high in March and April. At the same time, this caused a reversal in the middle of June. If the markets can reach as high as 1.1265 on an intraday basis, this would favor trade scalpers. This rate offers resistance beyond the usual range for ECB.

Support was held higher for the year at 1.1118 and a surge in volatility can take place in case it goes lower, which is likely to be the limit with today’s ECB meeting. It can stop from here if the ECB becomes dovish than anticipated. Yet, if the rate doesn’t decline, then we can see the pair to rise to 1.1184.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 30, 2019

The economic data will not do much to induce volatility to the EUR/USD pair prior to the release of Fed meeting. The currency pair keeps the trades close to the support at 1.12100 after a loss of 2% for the week. Meanwhile, the pair is less likely to reach below the support, prior to tomorrow’s Fed meeting.

In today’s North American session, the US inflation data will be released. Even though the release of the PCE price index will have a minor impact on the market and barely drives it to move. Hence, it is worth observing the pair. Subdued inflation is the primary reason that drove the Fed to ease its policy. At the same time, the PCE index will reflect it if this is the case.

Bids are seen in the early trading of the euro major pair at the European session and attempt to break higher. If the currency moves higher than 1.1150, a break is highly likely in the early trading range and induce a bigger recovery.

A horizontal level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from falling down after the ECB meeting last week. It seems that level remains to be a significant level with further resistance around 1.1200 handle.

Bigger resistance is at bay around the area of 1.1240 with the convergence to the level of 50- and 100-MA. Yet, it seems that the pair will not get too far on the daily trend prior to the Fed meeting.

The level below 1.1118 seems to be important as initial resistance and the major support around 1.1100 handle. This support level has kept the pair lower and it is presumed to decline in the Wednesday Fed meeting.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 5, 2019

Last week, the headlines on US president Trump publicized the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has had a big impact on the US dollar rate. Alongside with it, this occurred simultaneously with the markets placing bets on another rate cut in September given the dovish decision of the Fed.

Considering the CME Fed watch tool, a rate cute is probable in September by about 50 basis points in a quarter percentage chance. This is not surprising but trade tariffs add could adjust the sentiment at the next Fed meeting.

EUR/USD trend changes swiftly and whose central bank, the ECB or the Fed, will ease their policies becomes uncertain already even daily. On a positive note, it seems like the technical analysis becomes more stable even if the fundamental outlook looks hazy.

The recent gains of euro major pair were primarily due to the weakened dollar and commodity instruments are in red in this month.

The level of 1.1118 plays a significant role in the trend. An upward rally countered the earlier breakdown. Hence, it is likely for the pair to drop at the beginning of the week to be sustained in this area.

The area of 1.1118 was considered to be either resistance and support. This level limits short-term gains. If we can sustain the rally tomorrow or the day after, the next probable target is around 1.1230 given the convergence of the 50- and 100MA.