EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2019

The euro major pair extended its consolidation within the range of 1.1273 and 1.1280. With rising geopolitical tensions from the FOMC minutes and the most recent update on Brexit, the growth of the global economy is affected negatively.

The US dollar remained weak after the FOMC published a dovish sentiment on economic growth.

The EU officials announced a flexible extension of Brexit until October 31, which means that Britain can exit before the deadline before the set date given that the deal can be ratified before the specified date. This means that they are hoping for EU to finish at an earlier data. In case that the UK is unsuccessful to ratify the deal on May 23rd, it means that EU elections can take place.

In the eurozone, Data on Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY), the Consumer Price Index (YoY), Consumer Price Index (MoM) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices(HICP) (MoM) is scheduled to be released today. On the other hand, in the US, data on March Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY), an update on weekly Initial Jobless Claims as well as Counting Jobless Claims are anticipated to be published today.

Henceforth, the euro traded range-bound during the Asian session and remained in the range at 1.1255/1.1285. The EUR/USD pair trades above the Ichimoku clouds, as well as the baseline and the conversion line, giving a bullish signal on future movements. The Bollinger bands remain on a decline, signifying less volatility. The euro major pair hovered at the upper boundary that could open the possibility for a bullish trend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 18, 2019

The euro major pair declined yesterday from the high of 1.1325 and then consolidated close to the level of 1.1300. There were signs of a decline during the early Asian hours. It needs to descend to the strong support level in order to confirm the bearish tone. Still, this pair tries to keep the level at a sustainable level of 1.1300.

On the technical perspective, the Ichimoku clouds give a bearish tone towards 1.1280 with the baseline and conversion line emerging with the pair. Thus, this generates a neutral forecast. As for the SMA, the price was below the 100- and 200- SMA giving a small bearish trend. However, if it rises backed with the fundamental reports, then the pair will see a strong resistance level of 1.1320.

Early this week, the ECB officials stated their concerns for strong economic growth but seem far-fetched. The dovish sentiment originated from the drop of the EUR/USD pair. It may worsen the significant fundamental events disappoints market expectations.

Today, data on German PPI for March (MoM) came out less than the forecast. Other reports including German PMI for Germany will be released later and Retail Sales Control Group for March from the United States.

GBP/USD Daily Analysis: April 25, 2019

The British major pair continued its decline which began since the middle of April. Prior to this, the pair consolidated at the beginning of the trading session. It reached as low as 1.2917, close to 1.2884. So far, it positions at the lowest level this month.

The negotiations between the Prime Minister continued and the Labour party over Brexit. The Labour party requested for modifications in the Agriculture bill while most expected a compromise over Brexit.

Overall, it seems that things are in favor of the prime minister as May was successful in gaining an early no-confidence vote in the UK parliament.

For today, data on Distributive Trades Survey in April (MoM) will be released by the  Confederation of British Industry with anticipation for a bullish sentiment from analysts. Various March indices will be published as well, namely, US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders (excluding the Aircrafts), Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders (excluding Defence and excluding Transportation on the other). April reports are also scheduled including Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims.

In the technical aspect, the cable pair is trading to its lowest level at 1.2882 for the month. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands remains low amid expected low volatility and lost its stance on the strong level of 1.300. The price crossed the EMA, showing an upward sign in the short-term. Yet, investors continue to unaffected by the RSI close to 30th figure. The 200-SMA is higher than 100-SMA by 30 pips and majority shows bearish legs for the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: April 30, 2019

Trading of the euro major pair began close to 0.1184 and find it quite difficult to rise higher. During the Asian session, the pair crossed by more than 90 pips, which looks good for the traders.

However, the fundamental data was not enough to support the pair which then weakened the dollar. Meanwhile, the US GDP and Durable Goods Orders supported the increase of the greenback. The upcoming interest decision of the Fed is important to be monitored. 

The week ended with the euro major pair being the top concern after the improved European government bond yields. Meanwhile, the topic on UK’s Brexit remains uncertain along with the Sino-US trade deal, which is not surprising for the market at the present condition.

For today, various data from eurozone including German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, the KOF Swiss April Leading Indicator, German March Consumer Confidence Survey Index, updated German April Unemployment Change,  GDP numbers from EMU (QoQ), German April  HICP (YoY) are expected. On the other hand, February S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY), Chicago April PMI and US March (both MoM & YoY) Pending Home Sales are scheduled to be released as well.

On the technical outlook, the euro major pair is on its way to recovery. The pair moves close to the upper area of the Bollinger Bands, indicating upward signals. The important 200-days SMA recently crossed the 50-days SMA and moved below it. Yet, all the major SMA have bullish legs.  As for the RSI, it stayed around the overbought area.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 17, 2019

In the beginning of today’s trading session, the euro major pair has shown less or no volatility. The euro major pair moves close to 1.1170/80 levels but there is no certain direction and moves around the weekly low levels.

The positive associated with the delay in US car import tariffs had a transient effect on the pair. Meanwhile, the weak fundamental report pushed the pair to low levels.

The future for the greenback looks optimistic while the index was able to recover the losses during the week. Various data on US Housing data, Unemployment figures, and Manufacturing Survey reports  pushed the pair to reach high levels of 97.88. On the other hand, the Eurozone April CPI figures and US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index line may affect the future movements of the pair.

The CPI data from  the eurozone is anticipated to be released with a forecast of a decrease  by 0.3% on MoM. On the other hand, the data on Consumer Sentiments Index in May, which is presumed to rise close to 97.5%. There will also be speeches from Fed officials today. 

On the 4-hour chart, the price will likely be lower than 50-, 100- and 200-SMA and moves in a bearish tone. Yet, the 50-SMA being above the 100-SMA may mean a chance for a bullish sentiment. The RSI was found around 40th figure that gives moderate purchases of the pair.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 21, 2019

The euro major pair had a better trading than yesterday, which means that there is a chance for a recovery of the pair. Despite the rally of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.19%. There was some fresh bids on the USD index prior to the positive data from the US.

The US-Sino trade talks influenced the overall tone of the dollar traders to decrease. Just recently, some companies such as Huawei, Chinese Giant Telecommunication Equipment Company were blacklisted in the US, which then affected the Chinese  business. After the news, Huawei clients had retreated, as well as, another chipset manufacturer from Europe. Meanwhile, updates for Android was suspended by Google.

Investors are concerned with the backlash of China against the action of the US. At the same time, this adds pressure over dollar with the continuous uncertainty from trade talks. The EUR/USD pair gained advantage on the weakened dollar.

For today, there is no major events from Europe today except for the Consumer Confidence Index for the month of May from the European Commission. The market perceives the pair to remain a bit bullish at the present condition.

The dollar has already increased prior to the Housing data from the US with a rising forecast. Yet, the increase in the USD index gives a downward pressure to the pair.

The pair has established a downward movement towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The RSI showed a trend similar to the pair with the range between 35 and 40 levels. It may mean a low momentum and weak interest from investors. At the same time, it seems that there is a low volatility to the pair given the shorter gap between bands of the pair. Resistance levels are expected around 1.1175, 1.1185, and 1.1225 and support close to 1.1136 and 1.1111 levels.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 23, 2019

The euro major pair declined on Thursday morning from 1.1155, aiming for a breakdown at the support level of 1.1149. Today, there will be the EU Parliamentary Elections which may greatly affect the pair and further be pressured.

On the other hand, the Brexit is presumed to take place prior to the elections. Nonetheless, PM Theresa May could not finish the Brexit matter. France was allocated with a spot to the Union but the UK is still participating and everything has to have their own places.

On the other hand, the US dollar surpasses the level of 98.12 which as more pressure to the EUR/USD pair with the USD index. The FOMC minutes of the meeting was released last night and it was unexpected for them to keep the rates the same. At the same time, the minutes have mentioned that the current economic situation is less likely to have a big impact on the currencies.

For the Fundamental reports, data on Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released today. These have to be monitored as it may greatly affect the pair. Moreover, German GDP, Services & the Composite PMI, German Expectations from IFO, the Business Climate, and the Current Assessment are expected as well.

On the US side, reports on Continuing and Initial Jobless claims figures, Markit PMI for the Services, Manufacturing and the Composite of both sectors are anticipated by everyone. Aside from that, we have the  New Home Sales and the Sales Change report to monitor as well.

Traders should be mindful of the initial buying on the start of the European trading session as the candle closes on the hourly chart. The resistance above 1.1150 gives a stronger resistance, which was tested for support several times in the previous week. In case that the pair resumed a breakout, sellers may see mix strategies close to the resistance around 1.1170. There seems to be a horizontal level that limits aside from the upper line from the descending channel which restricts the price movement in mid-May. Overall, seeing a marginal breakdown close to the early May low at 1.1135 had encountered some puny stops from weak traders. It could further go down to 1.1109 in case of a continuous descent. Meanwhile, bears’ attention is on the support of 1.1135 towards 1.0975 to 1.10.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 27, 2019

The euro major pair moves close to 1.1211 on Monday morning. It looks like the pair resumes the upward trend since Friday. With ongoing European parliamentary elections and declining US dollar index, the pair was able to recover. The price opened close to 1.1203 and reach a new high at 1.1214.

Results for the election were released on Sunday, showing the Brexit gained the majority of the votes. The head of the winning party said that they consider handling Brexit in a new parliament. Although, there is a chance for a no-deal Brexit.

The US dollar pairs stronger against six major currency pairs at 95.78 during the Asian session. The US-China trade tension continues to influence the US dollar as it drops lower. It attempted to reach a fresh new high in the morning after a slight decline for the greenback today.

Today, the US will celebrate the ‘Memorial day’, hence, the US market will be closed today while there are no anticipated events from the eurozone. Meanwhile, traders will keep on monitoring the results of post-election and for any significant news regarding the US-China trade deal.

The technical level shows the reversal in the middle trading of morning hours. The indicator lines appeared close to the upper Bollinger bands moved downwards instead. It also crossed the middle line of the Bollinger bands or around the EMA close to 1.1204, which put an end to the small rally on May 23. After the pair have risen to 60 levels in the past trading session, the RSI is moving close to 50 levels. Yet, the trend stays active and trades above the important SMA. Hence, the 50-SMA crossed the 200-SMA and collide with the pair. We can expect a bearish tone in the short-term if it reaches above the 50-SMA.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 30, 2019

The euro major pair was able to break through to different  support levels without difficulty, which gives a strong sign of weakness. At the same time, the pair was able to pull back whenever it reached a fresh lows of the year, as shown on the daily chart.

Forecast on the early weeks are the levels of 1.1170, 1.1150, and 1.1135, which induced a bounce of the pair for this week. Although the rallies for recovery from the said levels were not that high. The pair stayed at the level of 1.1135 the most and has broken below it  during the North American trading on Wednesday.

Focused on the release of the GDP data for this week, it did not really have much of an impact to the market. Moreover, there are also reports on pending home sales, unemployment claims and the speech from FOMC member Clarida.

There is no clear breakdown lower than 1.1135 on the 4-hour chart. A sustained break would then aim for last week’s low, which is a major support in May around 1.1109. Furthermore, there is also liquidity below the area of 1.1097 and 1.1100.

It will take a break above 1.1150 to trigger a broader recovery and to entice some of the bears this week to cover their positions. If such an event materializes, strong resistance is found at 1.1170. In addition to the horizontal level, both the 100 and 200 moving averages are close to each other.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 3, 2019

The euro major pair had a sudden reversal on Friday to remove losses early in the week. The drive shows a chance for further gains. Yet, I anticipate a pullback during the trading session with some resistance levels around.

On the 4-hour chart, it shows confluence on the resistance from the 100-MA and descending channel headed upward. The 200-MA is just above the 100-MA that could give more resistance, which is recently at 1.1193.

During the North American session, the closing the 4-hour candle is a necessity and closing around the lows could lead to an evening star pattern, which could then prompt traders for a short position.

The EUR/USD pair resides higher than the 200-MA on the hourly chart. A rebound could bring the price up, above the horizontal line of 1.1170.

The level of 1.1183 offers quite a strong resistance, seeing the previous losses and the existence of the trend channel in the current situation.

On the horizontal level of 1.1150 was seen converging to the 100-MA, which can become strong support should it go down.

Even if the current momentum is directed upward, there is a chance for a pullback given the resistance at hand. There is also a possibility for testing of the support around 1.1150. There will likely be various stops above 1.12 and can cause volatility as the bears react to safety on the situation. Nevertheless, the pair can move higher by the end of the week and a long position can be considered if it reaches around 1.1150/1.1144.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 6, 2019

The euro major pair dropped suddenly on Wednesday trading hours, which then resulted in a reversal candle on a daily chart. This opens the possibility for a good rally. Overall, the direction of the trend will be relative to the ECB which will meet later this day.

The current trend indicates a downward movement more than expected. Meanwhile, different central banks eased the monetary policy or at least mentioned that they are open to doing so. Draghi will probably adjust the inflation forecast downward to an extent. In case that he chose to ease the policy amid the declining economic numbers, then the common currency will highly likely decline amid a high pressure.

Looking at the average movement, there is not a high chance for the EUR/USD pair to return above yesterday’s high. This would show as much as 86 pip rally since the opening.

Traders are suggested to look at the level of 1.1260, the level of which traders are likely to be aware of in the current situation. This has been on the lows twice last month and possibly be the limit at the present time. Although, it may not be that relevant after looking at the present levels.

As mentioned previously, there is also a significant resistance higher than the said level, especially considering the 100-MA and 38.2% Fibonacci from the high to low of this year. Although, it is less likely to retest the Fibonacci. Thus, I would focus my attention on the level of 1.1273, considerably that yesterday showed a strong reversal pattern.

There is also some support found around 1.1185 in case of decline due to the ECB on the 4-hour chart. This area will likely be maintained as the 100-and 200- MA are converged at the said price unless the ECB chief will have a new trigger to spike this.

As for the hourly chart, the price resides around 1.1185 at the 200-MA. There is some upward resistance at 1.1260 as a considered level. Yet, I would not clearly put a stake on a surge of increase beyond it.

In general, if the meeting turns are usual as expected, the pair will likely rally. It is suggested to look into the upper resistance and short yesterday’s high.

EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019

Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency.

The main concern of the Fed is inflation as the decline in inflation will likely have a negative impact, which will then prompt the Fed to loosen their policies.

Weak inflation would work well with the purpose and push the strengthening of the euro. The market already anticipates and prepares for the probable Fed easing. Nonetheless, there is a risk accompanied by inflation, which is why we can expect the euro major pair to have a hard time maintaining upward momentum before the release of economic data.

On the technical outlook, the pair looks like having a hard time in the horizontal resistance around 1.1318, which has been significant resistance in April and was a support for some time.

Initially, the pair testing the opening of the North American session. Thus, the traders during the early European session tried to raise the price higher, however, it was a failed attempt.

Therefore, we can consider the level of 1.1318 as psychological level in the short-term. There is a chance for an increase in a condition that the pair closes above the said level on the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, it will maintain its range-bound trading.

Meanwhile, the pair has been moving higher during the opening on the hourly chart of the Monday North American session. There is not much momentum to raise higher and a flag pattern is not confirmed.

On the other hand, the level of 1.1294 can become resistance and support. This just shows the 38.2 Fibonacci compared to the year’s high to low. Thus, there is a chance for the pair to drop lower than the level but there is a probability for the pair to reach around 1.1280. There is not much volatility expected prior to the publication of US inflation.