AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar drifts lower ahead of FOMC

The Australian dollar drifted a little bit lower ahead of the FOMC meeting, as we continue to see a lot of choppiness. This is a marketplace that continues to be erratic, and of course is affected by a lot of different moving pieces.
The Australian dollar pulled back significantly during the day after initially trying to rally overnight ahead of the FOMC. The market looks likely to remain very difficult to navigate, because we do have the problems with the Sino-American relations, as it has a direct influence on the Australian economy. Australia is highly sensitive to what happens with China, but with the uncertainty it’s difficult to put a lot of faith in the Aussie. I also recognize that the US dollar has the benefit of several interest rate hikes ahead of it, so that should help the downside as well. At this point, if we break down below the 0.72 level, the market is likely to go looking towards the 0.7150 level next. That’s an area that has been important and giving that up opens the door to the 0.70 level.
Above, I see massive resistance at the 0.7350 level, an area that has been supportive and has seen a lot of selling pressure. Because of this, I think that the upside is somewhat limited in the Australian dollar, and as because of that it’s likely that the easiest trade is to take exhaustive rallies as an opportunity to short. I believe that ultimately this market will drift lower, but if we get a somewhat dovish statement out of the FOMC somehow, that of course would change everything. With interest rates rising in the United States, it makes sense that the US dollar continues to be rather strong.
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U.S. Dollar Boosted by Fed, Solid Economic Data, Weaker Euro

The U.S. Federal Reserve increased the target for the bank’s benchmark by 0.25%, to a range of 2%-2.25%. FOMC members led by Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is strong enough that aggressive stimulus is no longer necessary. This confidence was shown by the Fed ending its description of its policy as “accommodative”. The divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Bank of Japan helped drive the Dollar/Yen to its highest level since December 21. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at a record low of 1.75 percent.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher last week, helped by expectations of rising interest rates, political turmoil in the Euro Zone and better-than-expected U.S. economic data.
U.S. Federal Reserve Raised Rates Again

On September 26, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the target for the bank’s benchmark by 0.25%, to a range of 2%-2.25%. A majority of Federal Open Market Committee members also said they expect another rise before the end of the year. This was also the bank’s eighth rate hike since 2015, continuing its policy of gradual rate hikes.
FOMC members led by Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is strong enough that aggressive stimulus is no longer necessary. This confidence was shown by the Fed ending its description of its policy as “accommodative”.
Powell also said the rate hike reflected the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. economy, describing it as a “particularly bright moment”. Powell also warned that a permanent shift to a “more protectionist world” would hurt the U.S. and global economies, but added that for now, he expects the overall economic impact to remain relatively modest. “We don’t see it in the numbers,” he said at a press conference in Washington after the meeting.
Fed Predictions

Fed officials now expect the U.S. economy to grow by 3.1% this year, faster than the 2.8% forecast in March, according to the projections released after the meeting. Their predictions for inflation remained unchanged at around 2%.
The FOMC forecasts showed Fed officials expect about three rate hikes in 2019 and one more in 2020, which would lift the central bank’s important Fed funds rate to about 3.4% that year.
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Gold Price Prediction – Prices Trade Sideways as the Dollar Rallies

Gold prices moved lower and continued to trade sideways in a tight range. This comes at the dollar broke out against the yen and moved higher against the euro.  The dollar gained traction despite a slightly softer than expected ISM manufacturing report.  Softer than expected EU PMI data and weak German retail sales weighed on the Euro. A weaker than expected Tankan survey was the catalyst that weighed on the yen.
Technical Analysis

Gold prices continued to consolidate and has been trading sideways for approximately 4-weeks.  Support on the yellow metal is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,181. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,196.  Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.
Data was Solid
Manufacturing data was solid, as the ISM manufacturing reported for September shows a contraction that was in line with expectations. The The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its national factory activity index declined by 1.5 points to a reading of 59.8 in September 61.3 in August. The August reading was the highest in 14-years.  The index for new order fell to 61.8 from 65.1 in the prior month but still remains well above the 50, expansion contraction level.  Employment rose to 58.8 which was the highest reading since February.
Construction spending Edge Higher

The US Commerce Department reported that construction spending edged up 0.1%in August. Data for July was revised up to show construction rose 0.2% instead of the previously reported 0.1% gain. Expectations were that construction spending would increase 0.4% in August. Construction spending rose 6.5% on a year-on-year basis. Spending on public construction projects jumped 2.0% in August to the highest level since July 2009.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Increased Demand for Risk

AUD/USD and NZD/USD price action early in the session suggests traders may have found support. The lack of follow-through to the downside may be indicating that bearish traders are becoming reluctant to sell weakness at current price levels and after a steep decline. The AUD/USD is trying to establish support inside a retracement zone at .7200 to .7172. The key area for the NZD/USD is .6600 to .6576.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading slightly lower early Wednesday, but threatening to turn higher for the session. Technical factors may be contributing to the early strength as well as safe haven buying. The longer-term fundamentals are still bearish, however, due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the currencies may be ripe for a short-covering rally.
At 0240 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7185, down 0.0001 or -0.01% and the NZD/USD is at .6588, down 0.0005 or -0.07%.
Increased demand for higher-yielding assets may also be contributing to the gains. The Euro is trading higher after several days of weakness tied to escalating financial issues between Italy and Euro Zone officials. This may be fueling today’s short-covering rally. U.S. equity markets are also firming in pre-market trading.
In economic news, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sees the U.S. economy generating highly optimistic expectations, with the unusual combination of low unemployment and inflation fueling hopes for an extended expansion.
Early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. Although it expressed concerns over the weakening housing market, it still showed confidence in economic and job growth.
New Zealand business confidence came in much lower than expected, raising concerns that the next major move by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would be a rate cut.
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Rising Geo-Political Risk Drives Support for the Yen and Dollar

Risk aversion hits the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar early, supporting the Greenback and the Yen, as Italy, Trade and Brexit haunt the markets.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was on the lighter side, with stats limited to August building approval figures out of Australia.
For the Aussie Dollar, building approvals tumbled by 9.4% in August, according to the ABS, which was far worse than a forecasted 1.2% rise and continued the downward trend following July’s 5.2% slide.
The tumble was attributed to a 17.2% decrease in approvals for private dwellings excluding houses, while approvals for private houses were also in decline, down by 1.9%.
The value of total building approved fell by 1.3%, marking a 9th consecutive monthly fall.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71745 to $0.71696 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.71709 at the time of writing, down 0.24% for the session.
Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen, was up by 0.09% to ¥113.55 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing, supported by market jitters over Italy and, not only its fiscal policy plans, but also some chatter of being better off with its own currency. For the Kiwi Dollar, things were not much better, the risk off sentiment weighing, the Kiwi down 0.27% to $0.6575 at the time of writing.
In the equity markets, the Nikkei hit reverse, down by 0.56% at the time of writing, with risk aversion weighing in the early part of the day, while the ASX200 managed to stop the rot, up 0.32%, with support coming from the big-4 that had been under the hammer of late. For the Hang Seng, the slide continued early, the Hang Seng down 0.34%, the ongoing trade war with the U.S and weakening economic data out of China doing the damage alongside risk aversion stemming from geo-political risk rising out of the EU.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Focus Will Remain on U.S. Treasury Yields, Inflation Data

There are no major reports from Australia and New Zealand this week. In the U.S., investors will get the opportunity to react to Producer and Consumer Inflation data. The PPI is expected to show an increase of 0.2%, up from -0.1%. The CPI is forecast to show an increase of 0.2%, up from 0.1%.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars tumbled last week to multi-year lows, driven by a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields and hawkish talk from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The rise in interest rates led to a widening of the interest rate differential between U.S. Government bond yields and Australian and New Zealand Government yields. This helped make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment.
For the week, the AUD/USD settled at .7049, down 0.0168 or -2.33% and the NZD/USD closed at .6437, down 0.0182 or -2.75%.
Essentially, it’s the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand that is driving the price action.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historically low 1.50%. It also suggested that while the economy is expected to improve, there are still issues with housing and lower wages that are preventing the RBA from raising interest rates. Traders don’t expect the central bank to begin raising rates until early 2020.
Two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. Traders are saying that the next move by the RBNZ could actually be an interest rate cut.
In other news, Australian Building Approvals fell 9.4%. However, the Trade Balance came in better-than-expected at 1.60 billion and Retail Sales rose 0.3%.
In the U.S., the headline grabbing nonfarm payrolls increased by 134,000 jobs in September, the fewest in a year. However, data for July and August was revised to show 87,000 more jobs added than previously reported. Average hourly earnings rose 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The unemployment rate fell from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent.
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Bitcoin – Bulls Eye $6,700 Levels on Hopes of the SEC Delivering

With Bitcoin holding on to $6,600 levels, the bulls will be eyeing $6,700 levels for the day to maintain momentum.
Bitcoin gained 0.99% on Monday, following Sunday’s 0.33% gain, to end the day at $6,674.8.
A typically range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin ease back to a mid-morning intraday low $6,585.9, Bitcoin managing to steer clear of the first major support level at $6,547.87, while continuing to struggle to hold on to $6,600 levels.
Tracking the broader market through the late morning, Bitcoin rallied through the late morning to a mid-day intraday high $6,730, the late morning move seeing Bitcoin break through the first major resistance level at $6,663.27 and second major resistance level at $6,709.53, while falling short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
A customary pullback in the final hours of the day saw a late rally through the second major resistance level be cut short, with Bitcoin easing back to $6,600 levels, while managing to avoid a slide back through the first major resistance level to $6,500 levels.
While there was no particularly negative news hitting the crypto wires through the day, there was some bullish chatter to provide support, with hope of an SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF applications driving appetite through the day, any approvals by the SEC likely to deliver Bitcoin and the broader market with some sizeable gains off the back of institutional money flooding into the cryptomarket.
The gains made across the broader market led to the crypto market cap moving back through to $221.5bn, while Bitcoin’s dominance eased back to 52%, the hold on to 52% levels still reflective of a bearish market.
Bitcoin’s struggles at breaking out from $6,600 have continued to see selling pressure at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 left untested, a breakout to $8,000 levels in late July all too brief to have supported a bearish trend reversal.
Monday’s gains will provide the Bitcoin bulls with some hope of a break free from the recent ranges, though for Bitcoin to enjoy upward momentum free from profit taking late in the day, some favourable regulatory news will need to be forthcoming.
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AUD/USD Extends Bullish Series Ahead RBA Financial Stability Review

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
AUD/USD is little changed despite the below-forecast print for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), but recent price action raises the risk for larger rebound in the exchange rate as aussie-dollar extends the bullish sequence from earlier this week.
AUD/USD EXTENDS BULLISH SERIES AHEAD RBA FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Fresh developments coming out of the U.S. economy may do little to alter the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as updates to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are anticipated to show the headline reading for inflation slipping to 2.4% from 2.7% per annum in August, and another batch of lackluster data prints may fuel a larger rebound in aussie-dollar as it limits the Federal Reserve’s scope to extend the hiking-cycle.
Keep in mind, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on a preset course in 2018 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. are widely anticipated to deliver another 25bp rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in December, and Fed officials may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank achieves its dual mandate for monetary policy.
However, the narrowing threat for above-target price growth may force the FOMC to soften its hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy as ‘both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent,’ and Fed officials may continue to project a longer-run neutral rate of 2.75% to 3.00% especially as the shift in U.S. trade policy clouds the economic outlook.
With that said, the recent rebound in AUD/USD may gather pace over the coming days, but the broader outlook remains mired by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as the central bank remains reluctant to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 15/10/18

It’s a slow start to the week for the majors, following last week’s heavy losses, with investors looking for updates from regulators.
Bitcoin Cash Looking for Support
Bitcoin Cash fell by 2.67% on Sunday, reversing Saturday’s 0.71% gain, to end the week down 15.6% at $441.7.
A bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin Cash rise to a mid-morning intraday high $458 before hitting reverse, the day’s high coming up against the first major resistance level at $458.13. After recovering through the afternoon from a late morning fall to $440 levels, a late in the day sell-off saw Bitcoin Cash slide through the first major support level at $445.93 to an intraday low $440.2 before finding support at the end of the day.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 0.59% to $446, with Bitcoin Cash calling on support at the first major support level at $435.27 with a start of a day slide to a morning low $435.5 to move through to a morning high $447.4 before steadying, the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level at $453.07.
For the day ahead, a hold on to $446 levels through the morning would support another run at $450 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level at $453.07 into play, while Bitcoin Cash will likely continue to fall short of $460 levels as investors look on for news from the FSB and G20 on rules and regulations for the cryptomarket, the IMF impact analysis of the market on financial stability suggesting the need for a more rigid framework.
Failure to hold on to $446 through the morning could see Bitcoin Cash pullback to sub-$440 levels to bring the day’s first major support level at $435.27 back into play, with any broad based market sell-off likely to see Bitcoin Cash test sub-$430 support levels before any recovery.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Xtreamforex daily Forex forecast key price drives today-Risk appetite ,Economic news,Fed minutes

The USD/JPY dictate the direction of Fed minutes,Demand for risk,economic reports on early Wednesday.The latest fed minutes and slew of US economic data  may also be helping to generate position-squaring ahead which is going to release tomorrow and it also generate some short covering activity.The safe-haven Japanese Yen reduced its gain up-to 0.42% on Tuesday.After release of strong quarterly results  from some of the US marketplace recovers sell off from last week.According to to us one indispensable thing that traders don’t expect the rapid rise of US treasury yield in minutes it puts the negative impact on market.
Gold Price Forecast-Gold markets keep on pounding sideways on Tuesday with slight upward tilt
Gold markets keep on crushing sideways with a marginally upward tilt amid the day on Tuesday, as we keep on observing a ton of security exchange purchasing. The Gold markets have offered somewhat of a place of refuge as they have become uncommonly shoddy starting late, yet now we are a bit overextended.One thing that I can say in regards to this market is that we have gone sideways generally after a huge rally, and that is a decent sign as it looks prone to make dealers substantially more agreeable at these more elevated amounts rather than the standard pullback that you would get after a flood higher.
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Xtreamforex Daily Forex Forecasts -Gold hangs to gains

Gold markets broke out to the upside recently, and over the last couple of days we have simply grounds sideways overall and at this point I think what we are trying to do is reach the $1250 level above. That is massive resistance due to technical and psychological importance though.
Gold markets revitalized, breaking towards the $1225 level as of late, however from that point forward we have gone sideways. This is an extremely bullish sign however, on the grounds that it demonstrates to us that the market is open to clinging to the increases from the move a week ago. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point it demonstrates genuine versatility and I think in the long run we will attempt to go to the $1250 level.The substitute situation would separate underneath the $1175 level, which would be extremely negative and could loosen up the gold market significantly further.
S&P Price Forecasts-Stock markets pulled back somewhat to commence Thursday
Stock markets  fell a bit in the United States to commence the Thursday session, yet it looks as though they are finding a specific measure of purchasing weight underneath. Along these lines, it’s presumable that we could see somewhat of a rally after this ongoing merciless selloff.The S&P 500 has hinted at getting amid the exchanging session on Thursday, as the bullish flame from Tuesday still is by all accounts a territory where purchasers will come in and lift this market up. On the off chance that that is the situation, at that point I believe that we will keep on observing business sector members proceed to attempt and push towards the past uptrend line at the 2850 handle. On the off chance that we can wipe out the huge negative light from a week ago, that would be phenomenally bullish, and afterward we could keep on going higher. Now, I think the 2700 level underneath is the “floor” in the uptrend, so as long as we can remain above there, I believe it’s probable that we will keep on discovering purchasers on plunges.
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Xtreamforex USD/JPY Price forecasts- US dollar separates against Japanese yen in hazard off move

The US dollars are starting to see more risk averse trading and broke down during trading session on Tuesday.The market looks extremely unsafe at this level ,yet this combine has a lot of help underneath , so underneath so its probably that we will keep on discovering purchaser in the long run.The US dollars breaking towards the 112 levels it does goes down significantly during the Tuesday session. Its obvious by our expectations that we are starting to wind up exceptionally touch in global markets generally speaking ,the USD/JPY combine will be a channel with regards to the outflow of this.
Gold Price Forecasts – Gold markets rally against amid Tuesday sessions
The God markets show extreme agitation in general and continues to attract safe haven flows as the markets. Gold market looks prepared to reach towards the $1250 level , however we have given back a touch of the auditions late in the day.Gold markets have unmistakably broken over the multi day moving normal, and now look liable to keep on going higher dependent on the bullish activity that we have seen. As of right now, I trust that the market will presumably reach towards the $1250 level, a zone that has pulled in the two purchasers and venders previously. As of now, on the every day diagram it looks as though we are endeavoring to skip around between $25 levels, and I think with the multi day EMA swinging to the upside, clearly Gold is prepared to make a genuine endeavor at a breakout. In any case, I would search for here and now pullbacks with the end goal to get somewhat of an esteem play and obviously show signs of improvement passage point.
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