XAG/USD: ambiguous dynamics 30.07.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the XAG/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

On Friday, silver prices rose, as the US dollar did not receive the expected support from published Q2 GDP data. However, further growth of the instrument was prevented by positive news around the process of negotiations between the US and Europe.

The speech of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, published on Sunday, supported USD additionally. He said that the US economy would continue to grow for several years more. In addition, the minister did not focus on the problem of the high exchange rate of the national currency, as President Donald Trump recently did.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is narrowing, reflecting a rather sharp change in the trade direction in the medium term. MACD grows, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic did not react to the emergence of "bullish" dynamics at the end of the last trading week and is still directed downward, rapidly approaching its lows.

It is better to wait until the situation is clear and keep some of the short positions in the short and medium term for some time.

Resistance levels: 15.46, 15.60, 15.83, 16.00.

Support levels: 15.30, 15.24, 15.09.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 15.46 with the targets at 15.75–15.83 and stop loss 15.30. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after a breakdown of the level of 15.24 with targets of 15.09–15.00 and stop loss 15.30. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

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USD/CAD: wave analysis 03.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/CAD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair can grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave of the higher level v of 1 develops. Now the local correction has formed as a fourth wave (iv) of v. If the assumption is correct, the pair may grow to the level of 1.3500 within the wave (v) of v. The level of 1.2970 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.2970 with the target at 1.3500. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2970 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.2740.

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USD/JPY: wave analysis 08.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The correction is continuing, the price can fall.

On the 4-hour chart, the correction of the higher level as a wave 2 of (C) is forming, taking a shape of an irregular flat. Now the wave c of 2 is forming, within which the wave (ii) of c has ended, and the wave (iii) of c is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the level of 109.35. The level of 112.14 is critical and stop loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 112.14 with the target at 109.35. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 112.14 will let the pair grow to the level of 113.22.

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NZD/USD: the pair remains under pressure 13.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair finished last week with a steady decline, having updated its record low of March 2016.

US July inflation data were ambiguous. Instead of the expected growth, CPI stayed at the level of 2.9%, and the base CPI rose from 2.3% to 2.4%, which keeps investors confident that the Fed will increase the interest rate two times this year, the nearest growth may be in September.

As for the trade war news, China refused to imply increased taxes on the US crude oil supply. Probably, there is nothing to compensate for its PRC yet. However, the increase in tariffs will affect imported from the US diesel fuel, gasoline and propane.

Friday stats from New Zealand failed to provide tangible support. In particular, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in July fell from 52.7 to 51.2 points.

Support and resistance

Bollinger bands on the daily chart are directed downwards. The price range is expanding in the lower part, but not as fast as the development of the "bearish" dynamics.

The MACD indicator decreases, keeping the sell signal (the histogram is located below the signal line).

Stochastic turned sideways in the oversold zone, which indicates the possibility of a corrective growth.

Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6622, 0.6650, 0.6686.

Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6534, 0.6500.

Trading tips

To open long positions, you can rely on the breakout of the level of 0.6600. Take profit – 0.6686 or 0.6712. Stop loss – 0.6550. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

A confident breakdown of 0.6560 can be a signal for further sales with targets of 0.6500 and 0.6480. The stop loss is 0.6600. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

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USD/JPY: pair in flat 17.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/JPY for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The US dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen on Thursday, August 16, partially offsetting the sharp decline of the pair the day before. The corrective dynamics contributed to weak macroeconomic data from Japan.

Published on Thursday, data on Japan's trade balance were negative. In July, it showed a deficit of 231.2 billion yen. At the same time, the import index increased from 2.6% to 14.6%, while exports decreased from 6.7% to 3.9%. According to the Ministry of Finance, the trade balance deficit was formed due to rising energy prices and an increase in the supply of medical products and aircraft products to Japan.

In addition, investors drew attention to a significant reduction in investment in foreign bonds. Over the week of August 10, their volume fell from 1164 billion yen to 123.9 billion yen.

Support and resistance

Bollinger bands on the daily chart are directed downwards. The price range is slightly narrowed from above, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in recent days. The indicator MACD tries to turn upwards, keeping the former signal for sale (the histogram is located below the signal line). Stochastic turned down, reacting to a surge of «bearish» sentiment on Wednesday, August 15.

The current indications of technical indicators remain contradictory and do not form clear trade signals.

Resistance levels: 111.16, 111.52, 111.85, 112.13.

Support levels: 110.73, 110.54, 110.25, 110.00, 109.76.

Trading tips

To open long positions, you can rely on the breakout of 111.16. Take profit – 112.00. Stop loss – 110.80. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

Breakdown of 110.54 can become a signal to sell with the targets of 110.00 and 109.76. The stop loss is 110.85 or 111.00. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

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USD/CHF: wave analysis 22.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair can fall.

On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 formed, and the downward correction develops as a wave 2. Now the local correction of the lower level b of 2 has ended, and the wave c of 2 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.9745–0.9672. The level of 0.9978 is critical and stop loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 0.9978 with the targets at 0.9745–0.9672. Implementation period: 7 days and more.

Alternative scenario

The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 0.9978 will let the pair grow to the levels of 1.0115–1.0180.

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AUD/USD: wave analysis 27.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The price can grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 develops, within which the wave iii of 1 ended. Now the upward correction is developing as a fourth wave iv of 1, within which the wave (a) of iv has formed, and the wave (b) of iv is developing. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the wave the pair will grow to the level of 0.7455. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7206.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 0.7206 with the target at 0.7455. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 0.7206 will let the pair go down to the level of 0.7100.

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You can read a Beginner's guide to FOREX Trading online or download it free of charge from the NPBFX analytical portal in the "Education" section. In order to get unlimited access to the E-book and other useful instruments on the portal, you need to register on the NPBFX website.

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EUR/USD: wave analysis 31.08.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair can grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the downward momentum of the higher level A of (2) formed, and the development of the upward correction as a wave B of (2) begun. Now the wave a of B is developing, within which the fourth wave of the lower level (iv) of a has ended. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1780–1.1820. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1639.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.1639 with the targets at 1.1780–1.1820. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1639 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.1500–1.1450.

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USD/CHF: USD strengthens 05.09.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, USD rose against CHF, renewing the highs since August 29. CHF is under pressure due to growing trade tensions in EU and the world.

At the end of the week, US President Trump can introduce new increased duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 200 billion. The prospects for the US-Canada negotiations on the new terms of the NAFTA treaty and the US-EU on the car market are still unclear. Some support for EUR is provided by the conciliatory tone of the Italian government. According to La Stampa, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini supports keeping the deficit of the new Italian budget within 2%, which does not violate the EU budget rules.

Tuesday’s Swiss data did not support CHF. As expected, in August the dynamics of CPI was zero after a decrease of 0.2% MoM in July. The indicators stayed at the level of +1.2% YoY.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are declining. The price range is narrowing, reflecting a change in the trade direction in the short term. MACD reversed upwards, forming a new buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic grows almost vertically, quickly approaching its highs.

It is better to open new long positions ones and keep current ones in the short and super short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9760, 0.9785, 0.9800, 0.9820.

Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9673, 0.9647.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 0.9730 and breakout of the level of 0.9760 with the targets at 0.9800 or 0.9820–0.9840 and stop loss 0.9730–0.9720.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9730 with the target at 0.9673 or 0.9647 and stop loss 0.9760–0.9770.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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NZD/USD: the instrument is declining 10.09.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

On Friday, NZD fell against USD, returning to lows of the middle of the previous trading week. Today, the "bearish" dynamics continues to develop, and the NZD/USD pair is renewing its records.

The instrument is under pressure of a strong August US labor market data, published last Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls rose to 201K from 147K in July. The average hourly earnings, which is often mentioned by the Fed in discussing constraints, grew significantly, too. In August, the indicator increased by 2.9% YoY and 0.4% MoM against forecasts of +2.7% YoY and +0.2% MoM.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is widening from below, letting the "bears" renew the lows. MACD indicator is pointing down, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). After the growth at the end of the last trading week, Stochastic is reversing downwards under the pressure of "bearish" trades on Friday and Monday. However, the indicator reflects that NZD is strongly oversold in the short and ultra-short term.

Current indicators’ readings do not contradict the further development of the downward trend in the near future.

Resistance levels: 0.6529, 0.6543, 0.6560, 0.6592, 0.6618.

Support levels: 0.6511, 0.6500, 0.6460.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after rebound from the level of 0.6511 and breakout of the level of 0.6529 or 0.6543 with the targets at 0.6618–0.6650 and stop loss 0.6511–0.6500. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.6511 with a target at 0.6460 and stop loss 0.6543. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

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XAG/USD: silver prices consolidate

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the XAG/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, silver prices declined, despite that during the day, the instrument updated the local highs since September 4. The positive dynamics was due to a noticeable weakening of the US currency after the publication of poor inflation data. The downward pullback, in turn, was due to the growing traders’ interest in risk.

In August, US Consumer Price Index fell from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY (minimum since April), and the Base Consumer Price Index rose from 2.4% to 2.2% (the worst indicator since May). Market participants feared that poor inflation data, along with pressure from President Trump's administration and trade tensions, could force FOMC members to cut rates of interest rate increase. In particular, this year the regulator can hold another increase instead of the two planned.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately falling. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the emergence of mixed dynamics in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line).

Stochastic grows, approaching its highs, which indicate that the instrument is overbought in the ultra-short-term and/or short-term.

It is better to keep current positions and not to open new ones at the end of the week.

Resistance levels: 14.26, 14.40, 14.48, 14.60.

Support levels: 14.06, 13.91, 13.83.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 14.26 with the targets at 14.60–14.70 and stop loss 14.15–14.10.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.06 with the targets at 13.83–13.70 and stop loss 14.20.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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AUD/USD: Australian dollar grows 19.09.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, AUD significantly strengthened against USD, returning to weekly highs.

On Tuesday, RBA Meeting's Minutes were published, but they did not disclose anything new to investors. It was noted that the world trade tightness creates significant risks for the economy, it was projected that the unemployment rate will decrease to 5.0%, and wages will continue to grow. There are no significant reasons for changing rates.

Today, the instrument is actively growing and renewing highs since August 31. AUD is moderately supported by RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech and Westpac Leading Index release, which rose by 0.1% MoM in August after 0.0% MoM last month.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse horizontally. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" mood develops. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which reflects that AUD can become overbought.

It is better to keep existing new long positions and open new ones in the short and/or ultra-short term until the cancellation of "bullish" signals.

Resistance levels: 0.7260, 0.7290, 0.7322, 0.7346.

Support levels: 0.7236, 0.7200, 0.7175, 0.7155.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7260 with the targets at 0.7300–0.7322. Stop loss is 0.7230. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 0.7260 and breakdown of the level of 0.7236 to 0.7175 or 0.7155. Stop loss is 0.7260–0.7270. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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