LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Today, the EUR/USD pair falls again, and the instrument is now trading around 1.1620. USD was supported by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke on Wednesday before the Financial Services Committee of the US House of Representatives. According to him, Fed’s balance reaches 4.5 trillion dollars, however, the program of bonds redemption confirmed its effectiveness, and there are no reasons to cut back the purchase so far. The normalizing of the balance can take up to four years. As for the key problems of the American economy, Powell noted the growth rates of the national debt, exceeding GDP growth, which had to be stopped. In general, investors remain confident that the US regulator will raise interest rates this year two more times.
June US construction market data prevents USD strengthening. Building Permits decreased by 2.2%, and Housing Starts – by 12.3%.

Support and resistance

Now the price consolidated below the middle line of Bollinger bands and may continue to fall to the levels of 1.1530 (June lows) and 1.1475 (Murrey [–2/8]). The key "bullish" level is 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]). Its breakout may lead to an increase to the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger bands are moving horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Approach Stochastic to the oversold zone suggests the possibility of a price reverse upwards.
Support levels: 1.1530, 1.1475.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 1.1580 with the targets at 1.1530, 1.1475 and stop loss around 1.1620.
Long positions can be opened above the level 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss 1.1680.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: silver prices are growing

Current trend

Prices for silver increased significantly on Wednesday, noting a new local high since July 17. USD fell against a background of falling yields on Treasury bonds and weak macroeconomic statistics on the new home sales dynamics in the US.

Yesterday's preliminary meeting between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker did not bring anything new to the market. Following the meeting, Trump said that he hoped for a positive outcome of the negotiations on the trade deal, and praised Juncker for a rather tough position.

It should be noted that the consequences of trade wars begin to affect their participants. On Tuesday, the PRC government announced a program to stimulate domestic demand and its own economy to prevent its recession due to new US import duties. At the same time, it became known that Washington would allocate USD 12B to help farmers affected by Chinese retaliatory duties.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the "bullish" nature of trading in recent days. MACD indicator is growing keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps on growing, but is rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates the risks associated with the overbought instrument.

Current indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 15.60, 15.83, 16.00, 16.12.
Support levels: 15.46, 15.30, 15.09.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 15.60. Take profit — 15.83, 15.90 or 16.00. Stop loss — 15.46.

A rebound from 15.60 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 15.46 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 15.09. Stop loss — 15.60 or 15.65.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having bounced off its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1215.0 (local lows), 1205.0 (July 2017 lows), 1185.0 (December 2013 lows).
Resistance levels: 1237.0 (local highs), 1256.0 (local highs), 1260.0 (October 2017 lows).

Trading tips

The chances of an upward correction are increasing.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1237.0 with targets at 1256.0, 1260.0 and stop-loss at 1228.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1205.0 with the target at 1185.0 and stop-loss at 1215.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

This week, CAD strengthened against USD due to the publication of strong data on GDP.

In May, Canada's GDP grew by 0.5%, which was the most significant figure for the last year. GDP growth is explained by good weather, which led to an increase in retail sales (by 2.0% in May) and an increase in oil prices in the first half of 2018.

At present, the Canadian economy is seriously dependent on the oil market, since the share of oil and gas production in the national GDP is more than 7% (the most significant figure since 1998). On Wednesday, after the publication of the EIA report, which recorded the growth of oil reserves in the US by 3.803M barrels to 408.74M barrels, CAD was under pressure, the pair began to grow and is currently trading at around 1.3025.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price is corrected upwards within the downtrend, and the possibility of further growth is confirmed by Stochastic, which is located at the oversold zone. However, one may speak about a serious increase in the price when it is fixed above 1.3061 (Murrey [3/8]). In this case, the next target of "bulls" will be 1.3183 (Murrey [4/8]). If the downtrend continues, the targets of the "bears" will be 1.2939 (Murrey [2/8]), 1.2817 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.2695 (Murrey [0/8]).

Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3183.
Support levels: 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.2939, 1.2817, 1.2695 and stop loss at 1.1360.
Buy positions can be opened above 1.3061 with target at 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3020.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

Current trend

After a serious fall last week, the cryptocurrency market stabilized. For a few days, the price of Ether is near 406.25. Investors are waiting for new drivers.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, announced work on the creation of a global platform called Bakkt. Through it, ICE plans to deposit the digital assets, and companies using Bakkt will be able to accept payments in cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, the reliability of digital assets continues to cause doubts. Last week, the SEC denied Winklevoss twins to create an ETF based on Bitcoin under the pretext that the currency is not sufficiently protected from manipulations. Studies of the The Wall Street Journal confirmed the regulator's concerns: there are organized groups of traders on the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through coordinated purchases or sales. Such methods have long been banned in the traditional market, but continue to be operated on the cryptocurrency one.

Support and resistance

Technically, Ether continues to trade in the downward channel and in case of breakdown of the level of 406.25 (Murrey [1/8]) it can decrease to 375.00 (Murrey [0/8]) and 312.50 (Murrey [-2/8]). However, Stochastics leaving the oversold zone suggests the possibility of an upward correction. The key for "bulls" is the level of 437.50 (Murrey [1/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands) above the upper border of the descending channel. If it's broken out, targets for growth will be 500.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 531.25 (Murrey [5/8]).

Support levels: 406.25, 375.00, 312.50.
Resistance levels: 437.50, 500.00, 531.25.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above 437.50 with the target at 500.00 and stop loss at 410.00.

Short positions may be opened from 395.00 with targets at 375.00, 312.50 and stop loss at 410.00.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. Cryptocurrency Market Review

This week, the cryptocurrency market continued to correct downwards amid the new decisions of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On Thursday, there was an attempt to growth, but in general the trend remains descending. At present, Bitcoin is traded around 6450.00 (–8.3%), Ethereum has fallen to 360.00 (–12.2%), Ripple declined to 0.3200 (–24.1%), Bitcoin Cash fell to the level of 590.00 (–20.1%), and Litecoin decreased to 61.26 (–21.0%).

The SEC and the uncertainty surrounding the ETF solution continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency market. This week, the regulator postponed to the end of September consideration of the issue of allowing the VanEck and SolidX companies to create a Bitcoin ETF, citing the need for a more thorough analysis of the applications submitted. According to experts, out of 10 companies that applied to the SEC for the creation of ETF, VanEck and SolidX had the greatest chance of obtaining a permit, since they closely cooperate with the Cboe exchange, where they planned to place shares. Therefore, investors were disappointed by the decision of the regulator, hoping for an early solution of the issue. On the other hand, the VanEck and SolidX trust application was not declined immediately, as was the case with the Winklevoss brothers' request a week earlier. Probably, there is a fight of opinions in the SEC, and there is still a chance to receive approval of the application for the trust. Two approvals are needed to introduce a new investment product to the market from the SEC: one is needed for the ETF creation and another one is needed for the right to trade its shares. The second permit should be obtained by Cboe, but consideration of its application was postponed by the SEC to the end of September.

Among other news of the market there is the intention of the company Opera Ltd. to launch a cryptocurrency wallet in the new version of the browser for the PC, because a similar product in Opera for Android was positively received by the cryptocurrency community. The research of the Wall Street Journal which confirmed the vulnerability of the digital assets market for fraud is also worth attention. The magazine found that there are organized groups of traders at the market that can significantly influence the prices of digital assets through simultaneous coordinated purchases or sales of currencies.

In general, the trend towards a decrease remains in the cryptocurrency market. Next week, prices may continue the downward movement.

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: instrument consolidates

Current trend

The US Dollar fell against the Canadian currency on Monday, 13 August, after renewing local highs since 24 July.

As there is a lack of significant economic releases, USD moves due to technical factors. It is supported by strong July US inflation data. Instead of the expected growth, the consumer price index remained at the same level of 2.9%, but the base consumer price index rose from 2.3% to 2.4%. Investors are confident that the regulator will raise the interest rate twice more. Most likely, this will happen at the September and December Fed’s meetings.

The key US data will be released on Wednesday, when the July data on retail sales and industrial production will be published. It is forecasted that the volume of retail sales may fall from 0.5% to 0.3%, and the index of industrial production can decrease from 0.6% to 0.3%. The implementation of forecasts can affect the USD negatively.

Support and resistance

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a gradual reverse upwards. The price range is widening but cannot cope with high volatility on the market yet. The MACD is growing and keeping a quite strong buy signal (the histogram remains above the signal line). The Stochastic is growing but is approaching its maximum levels, suggesting the USD is overbought.

Current indicators’ readings do not contradict further Bullish trend development.

Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3061, 1.3000, 1.2961, 1.2900.
Resistance levels: 1.3156, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3156 with targets at 1.3230, 1.3258 and stop-loss at 1.3100. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3100 with the target at 1.3000 and stop-loss at 1.3150. Validity – 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. Ethereum: general review

Current trend

After the decline of the beginning of the week, quotations of Ether have attempted to grow. On Wednesday, the instrument exceeded the 300.00 level, but is now trading around 281.25 (Murray [1/8]). It is difficult to say how strong the upward momentum will be, as the situation on the market remains unstable. Its total capitalization continues to fall – from early August it fell from 278 to 203 billion dollars, which indicates a serious outflow of investors after the refusal or transfer by SEC of a number of applications for the creation of ETFs based on Bitcoin. The share of ETH in the total market capitalization is also decreasing, from 15.7% in early August to 14.1% at present.

As for the news of the crypto-currency market it is worth noting the continuation of the "migration" of digital companies to Malta, since this country now has the friendliest legislation in relation to digital assets. Following the major exchanges Binance and OKEx, ZB.com, the fifth largest digital exchange in the world, opened its office on the island. The company expects to launch a new platform and exchange crypto currency for fiat money.

Support and resistance

At present, the price has risen above the level of 281.25 (Murray [1/8]) and can continue corrective growth to 343.75 (Murray [3/8]) and 375.00 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the upper border of the channel). The Stochastic exits the oversold zone. However, the potential of the downtrend is not yet exhausted, which is confirmed by the reversal of the Bollinger Bands down and the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The key for the "bears" is the 250.00, its breakdown will insure a decrease to 218.75 (Murray [-1/8]) and 187.50 (Murray [-2/8]).

Support levels: 250.00, 218.75, 187.50.
Resistance levels: 312.50, 343.75, 375.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at 313.00 with targets at 343.75, 375.00 and stop loss in the area of 290.00.

Short positions should be opened below the level of 250.00 with targets of 218.75, 187.50 and a stop loss at 280.00.

Term of realization: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing since the middle of last week on reports of upcoming US-China trade talks on August 21-22.

Negotiations can resolve at least some of the contentious issues, although experts warn that there would be no quick results. Quotes are also supported by the probplem of oil transportation from the Perm oil basin. In this regard, the number of active oil rigs in the US for more than two months is within the range of 858-869 units, which is much lower than the peak values of 2014, when it exceeded 1600 units.

The current growth is likely to be limited, as long-term pressures on the market remain. Investors are still concerned about the trade war, which could cause a decrease in oil consumption in the two leading world economies. But the possible shortage after anti-Iran sanctions will be covered by Saudi Arabia, which was confirmed by the country's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price tends to the upper border of the downward channel near the level of 73.43 (Murrey [3/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). After its breakdown, growth can be continued to 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]).  The consolidation of the price below 71.87 will lead to the decline to the levels of 70.31 (Murrey [1/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators show growth: Stochastic reversed up, MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone. However, the growth potential is seen as limited.

Support levels: 71.87, 70.31, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00, 76.56.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 71.87 with targets at 70.31, 68.75 and stop loss at 72.20.
Buy positions may be opened above 73.43 with targets at 75.00, 76.56 and stop loss at 72.10.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having left the oversold zone. The Composite is approaching its recent resistance region.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is turning down, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 1189.0 (local lows), 1174.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1217.0 (local highs), 1235.0 (December 2017 lows), 1259.0 (February 2017 highs).

Trading tips

The price has broken down its long-term ascending trendline. The fall could continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1189.0 with targets at 1174.0, 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1198.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1217.0 with targets at 1235.0, 1259.0 and stop-loss at 1204.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Friday, the pair grew in view of an inconclusive end to China-US trade negotiations and Jerome Powell's ambiguous statements.

The White House only said that the parties exchanged views on how to achieve a balance in economic relations. Chinese representatives called the talks constructive. According to Bloomberg, the next meeting can take place no earlier than November. Speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole has caused mixed reactions from investors. The head of the regulator confirmed that the pace of the US economic growth will remain the same, so the policy of raising interest rates will continue. However, according to Powell, there are no clear signs of inflation growth accelerating above 2.0%. In this regard, investors have doubts that the regulator will go to four rate increases this year. In addition, the tightening of monetary policy is criticized by President Donald Trump and some FOMC members agree with his position. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, James Bullard, in an interview with CNBC, stated the expediency of stopping the rate hike since inflationary pressures do not increase.

Support and resistance

Now, the price has risen above the level of 1.1596 (Murrey [7/8]) and can continue rising to 1.1718 (Murrey [8/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands). However, Stochastic's reverse in the overbought zone indicates the probability of a downward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1352 (Murrey [5/8]).

Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1474, 1.1352.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 1.1596 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1352 and stop loss at 1.1630.
Buy positions may be opened from 1.1640 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1840 and stop loss at 1.1600.

Implementation time: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices are rising and reached a maximum since July at 77.82, supported by yesterday's US statistics. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change reflected the decrease of “black gold” resources by 2.566 million barrels, and gasoline reserves by 1.55 million barrels. The production level stayed at the level of 10.9 million barrels per day. In response, investors are actively purchasing oil futures.

On Friday, market participants will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release. Last week, the number fell to 860 from 869 units. If tomorrow's report reflects the further decrease in the indicator, the instrument will receive substantial support.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators reflect the maintenance of growth potential. There is no sign of correction. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD is stable in the positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone and is pointing down, but it does not give a clear reversal signal.

At the level of 78.12 (Murrey [+2/8]), there is a strong support level, from which a reversal and formation of a downward correction are possible. The breakout of the level will let the price grow to the area of 79.00–80.00.

Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.00, 80.00.
Support levels: 76.56, 75.00, 73.43.

Trading Tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 78.12 with the targets around 79.00 and stop loss at the level of 77.80.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 77.40 with the targets around 76.56 and stop loss at the level of 77.70.