GOLD PRICES MAY FALL FURTHER AFTER HITTING ONE-YEAR LOW

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices hit 1-year low after hawkish comments from Fed’s Powell
Day 2 of Powell testimony, Fed Beige Book may sustain down move
Crude oil prices may extend drop if EIA inventory data echoes API print
Gold prices sank as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed the US Dollar higher (as expected), undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. He argued that despite recent worries about trade tensions, the economy remains in good shape and the best path forward continues to be a gradual increase in interest rates.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to edge lower following Monday’s sharp selloff. That move came amid reports that Saudi Arabia was planning to increase exports to Asia while speculation that President Trump might release some of the US’ strategic reserves continued.

The latest round of weakness comes after legislation allowing the US government to sue OPEC for “price-fixing” was introduced in the Senate. Separately, the weekly set of inventory flow figures from API showed stockpiles added 629k barrels last week.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES STEADY

The prices have been consolidating and ranging but the bulls should be encouraged by the gains that have been ade over the last few days.
The BTC prices continued to consolidate and range below the $7500 region which is something that was expected considering the breakout that we had seen during the middle of the week. Generally a breakout is followed by consolidation and then a correction back towards the highs of the range that had a breakout and we now await and see whether the correction happens. So far, it has not happened and it remains to be seen whether the correction would happen or whether the prices would continue to move higher after the consolidation phase is over. The bulls have established control and they should be happy now that they have been able to hold on to their gains over the past 2 days.
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BITCOIN – THE BULLS ARE IN CONTROL, AS BITCOIN EXTENDS ITS GAINS

Another positive move by Bitcoin on Saturday saw weekly gains extended, as the bulls look to round off a solid week.
Bitcoin gained 0.96% on Saturday, partially reversing the week’s only loss on Friday, to end the day at $7,403.4, with Bitcoin up 16.64% for the current week.

A start of the day slide to an intraday low $7,221 saw Bitcoin call on support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 to avoid heavier losses and a resumption of the extended bearish trend that had been formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.

Bitcoin recovered through to a mid-morning $7,356.2 high that fell short of the first major resistance level at $7,587.63, before pulling back to test support at $7,300 through the late morning.

An afternoon rally saw Bitcoin break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level once more, easing immediate concerns of a tumble and a reversal of the near-term bullish trend, formed back at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755.

Bitcoin stuck an intraday high $7,459 in the late afternoon and, while Bitcoin fell short of testing the day’s first major resistance level at $7,587.63, moving back through to $7,400 levels was key for the Bitcoin bulls, a pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 likely to see Bitcoin back at sub-$7,000 levels.

There was no particularly material news driving Bitcoin and the broader market on Saturday, with the moves in recent days giving investors some comfort with the knowledge that support levels are playing a role in Bitcoin’s recovery, which is in contrast to some of the majors that have pulled back below key levels hit in the early part of the week.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.15% to $7,392.5 in what’s been a choppy start to the day, Bitcoin pulling back to a start of the day low $7,329.1 before a bounce back to an early morning $7,486.9 high, the early morning moves leaving the first major support level at $7,263.27 and first major resistance level at $7,501.27 untested through the early hours.
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EUR/GBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EURO BREAKS KEY RESISTANCE
EUR/GBP TECHNICAL STRATEGY: FLAT
Euro breaks above 9-month chart resistance against British Pound
A break of March swing high might open the way above 0.90 figure
Near-term positioning hints entering long trade premature for now
The Euro may be on the cusp of launching a sustained move higher against the British Pound after breaching nine-month trend resistance.

With the series of lower highs and lows established from October 2017 now invalidated, prices look poised to challenge the March 7 high at 0.8968. A daily close above that opens the door for a test of the October 12 peak at 0.9033. Alternatively, a turn back below resistance-turned-support – now at 0.8876 – exposes a rising trend line guiding the upswing since mid-June (currently at 0.8841).
A look at shorter-term positioning seems to argue against buying in however. The four-hour chart reveals that the near-term uptrend has been broken, with a deeper pullback possible if the pair manages to get below 0.8924. From a tactical perspective, it seems premature to commit to commit on the long side before this retracement finds a demonstrable bottom.

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GOLD PRICE FORECAST – QUITE SESSION TO START THE WEEK

Gold markets did very little during the trading session on Monday, hanging about the $1228 level. This is an area that has a lot of interest attached to it, so it makes sense that we will see a lot of volatility. However, recently we have broken above a minor resistance area, so expect a lot of back and forth trading as we try to work things out.
The Gold markets drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Monday, looking at the $1228 level for support. There is plenty of resistance around the $1225 level that has recently been broken, so it should now, at least in theory, offer a bit of support. However, if we break down below that level we could continue to go much lower. At this point, even if we rally from here, I suspect that there is a lot of supply near the $1240 level, so I think it will be difficult to break above that. We have been in a downtrend, and it’s likely that we could continue to see that as the overall attitude.
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BITCOIN HITS $8000 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO MONTH

Over the last 24 hours, BTC added more than 4% and overcame an important psychological level of $8,000, which sets optimists on the proximity of the new milestone of $10,000.
Cryptomarket actively replaces altcoins in portfolios with the Bitcoin. Over the last 24 hours, BTC added more than 4% and overcame an important psychological level of $8,000, which sets optimists on the proximity of the new milestone of $10,000. Bitcoin was trading at $8189 at the time of writing.

The top 10 coins for capitalizations show either a decrease or a slight increase from + 1.5% for Ethereum (ETH) to -52% for the Bitcoin Diamond (BCD), according to CoinMarketCap.
The increase in the demand for the Bitcoin (BTC) coincides with the boost for daily volumes traded by 60% from $3.5 billion on Monday to $5.6 billion today. Investors bet for the market warming up with institutional money, as well as for the creation of investment products that would lead the demand for the Bitcoin (BTC) to a new mainstream level.
Over the past month, the Bitcoin grew by 36% which contrasts sharply with 14% growth of the whole market ex BTC. The total cryptomarket capitalization without Bitcoin almost stagnated around $150 billion level for the previous month.
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CRUDE OIL, GOLD PRICES MAY RETREAT AS DOVISH ECB BOOSTS US DOLLAR
CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices rise as EIA reports dramatic inventory drawdown
Gold prices swing to range top courtesy of Trump/Junker meeting
Dovish ECB might boost US Dollar, weighing on commodity prices
Crude oil prices shot higher as EIA inventory data showed stockpiles shed 6.15 million barrels last week, an outflow nearly three times larger than the projected 2.23 barrel draw. The outcome likewise dwarfed the larger 3.16 million barrel decrease signaled in a private-sector estimate from API.

Gold prices swung higher as the US Dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the standby anti-fiat alternative. The greenback drifted lower as traders reduced exposure ahead of the closely watched meeting between US and European Commission presidents Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Junker, respectively.
COMMODITIES MAY FALL AS DOVISH ECB BOOSTS US DOLLAR

Looking ahead, the knock-on influence of the ECB monetary policy announcement may emerge as defining for near-term price action. The central bank has already put the path of QE asset purchases on autopilot through year-end but traders will want guidance on when rates will begin to rise thereafter.
ECB President Mario Draghi will almost certainly face a barrage of questions to this end at the press conference following the announcement. Earlier messaging suggested a hike won’t come at least until the end of summer 2019. As of now, market pricing has written off an increase until the fourth quarter.
Eurozone economic news-flow has cautiously improved in recent weeks, producing a cautious hawkish shift in expectations. The likelihood of an October hike has increased from 58.7 to 80 percent since mid-June. A call for restraint from the ever-cautious Mr Draghi might cool such optimism however.
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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST – US DOLLAR TRYING TO FIND BASE AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

The US dollar drifted a bit lower to open the Wednesday session, as we are looking at support below based upon an uptrend line, and of course the psychologically important ¥111 level. I believe at this point we are starting to see value hunters come back into the marketplace, offering an opportunity to pick up the US dollar “on the cheap.”
The US dollar has dropped a bit to start out the session on Wednesday but has an uptrend line just below to offer a significant amount of support. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the ¥112 level. Overall, I believe that the market could perhaps go looking towards the ¥113 level after that. If we break down below the uptrend line, then we are probably looking at a move towards the ¥110 level.

The US dollar has been punished a bit due to the currency war, but quite frankly in the end I think that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar as the Federal Reserve is known to have a handful of interest rate hikes on the table, while the Bank of Japan is on the sidelines, and nowhere near tightening monetary policy. Beyond that, the ultra-loose policy of the Bank of Japan looks likely to continue for years, so under this scenario it makes sense that eventually we will turn things back around. The Japanese yen is considered to be a “safety currency”, so if we get some type of financial shock, we could then break down. However, right now I believe that the upside is most certainly the favored direction of most currency traders looking for the longer-term move.
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BITCOIN – A BIG FEW DAYS FOR THE BULLS TO GET THROUGH

Sub-$8,200 support has kept Bitcoin at bay, but another pullback to $8,100 levels could see the week’s gains at risk. It’s a key part of the week.
Bitcoin fell by 2.46% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 8.52% gain, to end the day at $8,183.1.
In a relatively choppy start to the day, Bitcoin moved through to a start of the day intraday high $8,488.1, coming up short of the first major resistance level at $8,691.93 and Tuesday’s $8,506.7 high, before a mid-morning reversal saw Bitcoin slide through to a mid-afternoon intraday low $8,073.
A late in the day recovery saved Bitcoin from heavier losses on the day, which would have seen Bitcoin slide back to sub-$8,000 levels to bring the first major support level at 7,857.23 and, more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 into play.
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AUD/USD AND NZD/USD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY FORECAST – AUSSIE FOCUS ON TRADE BALANCE, KIWI FOCUS ON EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted a mostly sideways trade last week before settling lower. The price action was mostly manipulated by volatility in the Treasury markets, appetite for risk, concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute and a few domestic reports.
For the week, the AUD/USD settled at .7402, down 0.0016 or -0.22% and the NZD/USD settled at .6796, down 0.0012 or -0.17%.
In New Zealand, the Trade Balance came in lower than expected at -113 Million versus a 200 Million estimate.
In Australia, the Consumer Price Index posted a solid 0.4% reading, but the figures came in below the 0.5% forecast. Trimmed Mean CPI stayed at 0.5%. Despite the strong readings, the numbers were not likely to alter the dovish monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. They are not likely to make a change until late 2019 or early 2020 and this is not likely to occur unless rising wages drag up inflation.
In the U.S. last week, Flash Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected along with the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Housing continued to disappoint with Existing Home Sales falling to 5.38 million units versus a 5.46 million unit forecast. New Home Sales also missed the mark with 631K units versus a 669K estimate.
The major reports included Durable Goods and Advance GDP. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in June and shipments surged, pointing to solid growth in business spending on equipment in the second quarter. Second-quarter GDP was the best in nearly 4 years, at 4.1 percent. The dollar weakened on Friday after the release of the GDP data as investors expressed doubt the growth would continue the rest of the year.
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AUD/USD AND NZD/USD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY FORECAST – AUSSIE FOCUS ON TRADE BALANCE, KIWI FOCUS ON EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted a mostly sideways trade last week before settling lower. The price action was mostly manipulated by volatility in the Treasury markets, appetite for risk, concerns over the U.S.-China trade dispute and a few domestic reports.
For the week, the AUD/USD settled at .7402, down 0.0016 or -0.22% and the NZD/USD settled at .6796, down 0.0012 or -0.17%.
In New Zealand, the Trade Balance came in lower than expected at -113 Million versus a 200 Million estimate.
In Australia, the Consumer Price Index posted a solid 0.4% reading, but the figures came in below the 0.5% forecast. Trimmed Mean CPI stayed at 0.5%. Despite the strong readings, the numbers were not likely to alter the dovish monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia. They are not likely to make a change until late 2019 or early 2020 and this is not likely to occur unless rising wages drag up inflation.

In the U.S. last week, Flash Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected along with the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Housing continued to disappoint with Existing Home Sales falling to 5.38 million units versus a 5.46 million unit forecast. New Home Sales also missed the mark with 631K units versus a 669K estimate.
The major reports included Durable Goods and Advance GDP. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in June and shipments surged, pointing to solid growth in business spending on equipment in the second quarter. Second-quarter GDP was the best in nearly 4 years, at 4.1 percent. The dollar weakened on Friday after the release of the GDP data as investors expressed doubt the growth would continue the rest of the year.
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USD/JPY FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – LOOK FOR HIGH VOLUME, HIGH VOLATILITY SESSION, STRENGTHENS OVER 111.259, WEAKENS UNDER 110.588

Based on the early trade, the direction of the USD/JPY today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 110.868. Basically, we’re looking for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over 111.259 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under 110.588. Look for a high volume, high volatility trading session.
The Dollar/Yen is edging lower early Tuesday as investors braced for the highly-anticipated monetary policy decision later in the day from the Bank of Japan. Traders will find out shortly if the Japanese central bank will make a move to tweak its massive stimulus program to make it more sustainable.
At 0236 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 111.027, down 0.040 or -0.04%.
Whatever the decision by the BOJ, traders should look for heightened volatility especially since prices have been compressed for nearly a week.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 110.280 will change the main trend to down. The closing price reversal bottom at 110.588 from July 26 stopped the selling while the high at 111.259 is helping to hold the market in a three day range.
The minor trend is down. This shifted momentum to the downside. A trade through 110.588 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and indicate the selling is getting stronger.
The major long-term retracement zone at 110.868 to 109.673 is providing support. Traders have been hugging the upper or Fibonacci level at 110.868 for several days.
The short-term range is 113.210 to 110.588. Its retracement zone at 111.899 to 112.208 is the primary upside target. If tested, sellers will stop the rally and form a secondary lower top, or buyers are going to blast through it, turning 110.588 into a main bottom.
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