XAU/USD: wave analysis 16.05.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the XAU/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The price can fall.

On the daily chart, the wave (C) of the higher level is developing, within which the first wave 1 of (C) is forming. Now the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 1233.90–1203.08. The level of 1325.63 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 1325.63 with the targets at 1233.90–1203.08. Implementation period: 7–10 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1325.63 will let the price grow to the level of 1365.30.

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NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is falling 23.05.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the NZD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

NZD fall against the US dollar, balancing the growth of the end of last week when the instrument stepped off the December lows.

The investors are still focused on the US-China trade relations. On Tuesday, the concrete steps of the parties to ease tension were revealed. Since July 1, China is going to rapidly reduce import fees on American cars and spare parts. Taxes for cars will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and for spare parts – from 10% to 6%. America, according to The Wall Street Journal, is ready to cancel restrictions on the supply of ZTE smartphones but the company will probably have to change the management structure and pay a number of fines.

On Wednesday, investors are waiting for FOMC Minutes release. The report can show the further actions of the regulator. Traders expect if there will be three or four, as the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, earlier hinted.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands decrease. The price range narrows, reflecting the flat trading in the short term. MACD grows, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). The indicator reacts slowly to the “bearish” dynamics. Stochastic reversed downwards, but a correctional fall in the short term is possible.

It is better to wait for the clear signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6935, 0.6973, 0.7000, 0.7051.

Support levels: 0.6880, 0.6850, 0.6800.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 0.6880 and breakout of 0.6900 with the targets at 0.6973 or 0.7000 and stop loss 0.6860.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.6880 with the targets at 0.6830-0.6800 and stop loss 0.6920.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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GBP/USD: wave analysis 31.05.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the GBP/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair can grow.

On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level is developing as a wave (2). Locally the wave and of (2) has formed, and the development of the upward correction of the lower level as a wave B of (2) begins. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 1.3472–1.3645. The level of 1.3226 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3226 with the targets at 1.3472–1.3645. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3226 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.3100.

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EUR/USD: the pair shows mixed trend 06.06.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR traded against USD in a downward direction. Nevertheless, by the end of the afternoon session, EUR managed to win back its losses and enter the green zone.

The European currency is under pressure from weak data on Markit services PMI in Eurozone. In May, the indicator fell from 53.9 to 53.8 points. The indicator for Germany remained at the same level of 52.1 points. 

European investors are still focused on Italy. The government crisis is over – Eurosceptics managed to form a government headed by Giuseppe Conte. Now concrete steps are expected from it, which can significantly complicate relations with the European authorities. Recall that "5 stars" and "League" parties are against the EU budget rules and austerity. The coalition's plans include tax cuts, an increase in government spending, and a refusal to raise the retirement age. According to Bloomberg, the implementation of these plans could cost Italy an additional EUR 126 billion and will certainly lead to an increase in Italian public debt.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting a mixed nature of trading. MACD indicator is growing keeping a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic also grows, but approaches its maximum marks, which indicates EUR being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1743, 1.1800, 1.1860, 1.1900.

Support levels: 1.1639, 1.1600, 1.1552, 1.1500.

Trading tips

To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of the level of 1.1743, if "bullish" signals prevail. Take-profit — 1.1860 or 1.1900. Stop-loss – 1.1690.

The rebound from resistance level of 1.1743, with the subsequent breakdown of 1.1700 mark, can become a signal to begin correctional sales with targets at 1.1600, 1.1552. Stop-loss — 1.1760.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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XAG/USD: silver prices fell sharply 18.06.2018

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NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the XAG/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Prices for silver fell last Friday, noting a new local minimum since June 5 and interrupting the series of growth, thanks to which the instrument had updated the highs since April 19. The decrease was due to the sharp growth of USD, despite the new aggravation of US-China trade relations.

The announced 25-percent tariffs on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion do not promise an instrument a calm trading. Despite the strengthening of USD, many analysts are confident that a new round of economic war will cause significant damage to the US economy.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands reversed horizontally. The price range is actively narrowing from below, reacting to the emergence of ambiguous dynamics recently. MACD is declining keeping a steady sell signal (being located below the signal line). Besides, the indicator is approaching the zero level, the breakdown of which can also mean the appearance of "bearish" signals. Stochastic is quickly declining, approaching its minimum levels, which indicates increasing risks associated with oversold silver in the ultra-short term.

At the moment, one should keep the existing short positions in the short and/or ultra-short term until the situation is clear.

Resistance levels: 16.51, 16.60, 16.71, 16.77.

Support levels: 16.37, 16.27, 16.18, 16.09.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened if the instrument rebounds from the level of 16.37 followed by the breakout of 16.51. Take-profit — 16.71, 16.77. Stop-loss — 16.35.

The breakdown of 16.37 may serve as a signal to further sales with the target at 16.18, 16.00. Stop-loss — 16.51.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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AUD/USD: wave analysis 25.06.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The downward trend is still strong.

On the H4 chart a downtrend is forming as the first higher-level wave 1 of (5). At the moment, apparently, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 1 is developing, within which the upward correction (iv) of v has ended. If the assumption is true, then the fall of the pair will continue to the level of 0.7300. The critical level and stop-loss level for this scenario are both will be at 0.7451.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the corrections, below the level of 0.7451 with the target of 0.7300. Term of realization: 5-7 days.

Alternative scenario

Breakout of the level of 0.7451 will allow the pair to continue its growth to the area of 0.7483-0.7516 and above.

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AUD/USD: the instrument is trading mixed 02.07.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

On Friday, AUD strengthened significantly against USD, partially balancing the decline at the beginning of last week.

The growth of the instrument was due mainly to technical factors, while macroeconomic statistics from Australia was ignored. New Home Sales (MoM) fell to –4.4% in April from –4.2% a month earlier. Private Sector Credit (YoY) fell to 4.8% in May from 5.1% a month earlier, and in monthly terms the indicator fell to 0.2% in May from 0.4% a month earlier.

Today, during the Asian session, the pair is trading downwards. Investors are not going to open new positions before RBA Interest Rate Decision will be published on Tuesday, July 3. June TD Securities Inflation and May Building Permits releases are expected today.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term. MACD grows, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic turned up after a confident decline at the beginning of last week.

According to the indications of technical indicators, it is better to open long positions in the short and super short term.

Resistance levels: 0.7409, 0.7442, 0.7474, 0.7500.
Support levels: 0.7384, 0.7355, 0.7322.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7409 with the targets at 0.7474 or 0.7500–0.7520 and stop loss 0.7370.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7355 with the targets at 0.7322–0.7300 or 0.7270 and stop loss 0.7390.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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USD/CHF: the dollar is declining 09.07.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/CHF for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

On Friday, USD fell against CHF, interrupting the flat dynamics of the middle of last week.

USD weakened due to the official start of the US-China trade war. On Friday, the US 25% tariffs on Chinese goods came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. The US intends to introduce duties on another 284 items of Chinese goods worth a total of USD 16 billion in two weeks. The PRC authorities reported on the introduction of tit-for-tat measures and accused the US of violating the WTO rules. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. The US administration warned that in the event of the conflict escalation, it could continue to expand duties and impose them on Chinese goods totaling more than USD 500 billion.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands fall. The price range narrows. MACD decreases, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line), and tries to consolidate below the zero line. Stochastic is directed downwards but is quickly approaching its lows, indicating the oversold dollar in the near future.

Current indicators’ readings do not contradict the further development of the «bearish» trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9888, 0.9910, 0.9940, 0.9963.

Support levels: 0.9853, 0.9820, 0.9800, 0.9786.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 0.9853 and breakout of 0.9888 with the targets at 0.9940–0.9963 and stop loss 0.9860–0.9850. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 0.9853 with the targets at 0.9820–0.9800 and stop loss 0.9870–0.9880. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: analytics

You can find more actual analytical reviews on other popular currency pairs, metals and CFDs on the NPBFX online portal. Daily analytics with charts, current market prognoses and trading scenarios in the Feed section are available. Get free and unlimited access to the online portal after registering on the official website of NPBFX Company.

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AUD/USD: general analysis 13.07.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the AUD/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, the AUD/USD pair strengthened due to the news that China and the US could negotiate to resolve controversial trade issues.

The intention of Washington and Beijing to find a compromise is a good sign for Australian exporters since China is Australia's main trading partner. However, the fall in commodity prices has a negative impact on AUD. In addition, the recent US CPI correspond to the "hawkish" mood of the Fed and restrain the growth of the pair.

Today at 17:00 (GMT+2) Fed Monetary Policy Report will be published. Given the positive inflationary dynamics and positive data on a number of key macroeconomic indicators, investors expect the pair to fall on the last trading day of the current week.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair tries to consolidate above the middle line of Bollinger bands. The indicator is turned sideways, the price range is unchanged, which reflects the development of the upward trend correction. MACD histogram is in the negative area, holding a weak sell signal. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, a strong sell signal can be formed in the next few hours.

Resistance levels: 0.7421, 0.7441, 0.7468, 0.7507, 0.7535.

Support levels: 0.7305, 0.7325, 0.7351, 0.7392.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7425 with the targets at 0.7485, 0.7510 and stop loss 0.7390.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7385 with the target at 0.7345 and stop loss 0.7405.

Implementation period: 1–2 days.

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EUR/USD: euro falls again 18.07.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the EUR/USD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, stepping off the renewed highs since July 11.

Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund has published a forecast on the growth of the economy of the leading countries. In the current year, the EU's GDP may grow by 2.2% instead of previously expected 2.4% due to growing world trade tension and Brexit uncertainty. However, the EU leadership is trying to develop mutually beneficial free trade: on Monday, a major corresponding agreement between the EU and Japan was signed. According to the document, which should enter into force in March 2019, Japan should abolish duties on 94% of goods produced in the EU, and the European Union – similar duties for 99% of Japanese goods.

On Wednesday, June EU inflation data will be published. MoM indicators are expected to decrease significantly: the Consumer Price Index – from 0.5% to 0.1%, and the Base Consumer Price Index – from 0.3% to 0.1%. YoY values will remain unchanged. CPI will be 2.0%, and the Base CPI – 1.0%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger bands move flat. The price range tries to consolidate. MACD decreases, keeping a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic unfolds down after a brief growth, reacting to the "bearish" Tuesday’s trade.

It is better to open short positions in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1689, 1.1718, 1.1743, 1.1800.
Support levels: 1.1647, 1.1600, 1.1541, 1.1500.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.1647 and breakout of 1.1670–1.1689 with the targets at 1.1743–1.1750 or 1.1775–1.1800. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.1647 with the target of 1.1600 or 1.1575 and stop loss 1.1689. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Use more opportunities of the NPBFX analytical portal: analytics

You can find more actual analytical reviews on other popular currency pairs, metals and CFDs on the NPBFX online portal. Daily analytics with charts, current market prognoses and trading scenarios in the Feed section are available. Get free and unlimited access to the online portal after registering on the official website of NPBFX Company.

If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.

Use the current recommendations of analysts on EUR/USD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.

USD/CAD: wave analysis 23.07.2018

Good afternoon, dear forum visitors!

NPBFX offers the latest release of analytics on the USD/CAD for a better understanding of the current market situation and more efficient trading.

Current trend

The pair is in a correction, the fall is possible.

On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave of the higher level v of 1 is developing. Now the local correction is forming as a fourth wave (iv) of v, within which the wave c of (iv) is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the level of 1.2987. The level of 1.3291 is critical and stop loss for this scenario.

Main scenario

Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 1.3291 with the target at 1.2987. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Alternative scenario

The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3291 will let the pair grow to the levels of 1.3500–1.3600.

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You can read a Beginner's guide to FOREX Trading online or download it free of charge from the NPBFX analytical portal in the "Education" section. In order to get unlimited access to the E-book and other useful instruments on the portal, you need to register on the NPBFX website.

If you have any questions about trading instruments, you can always ask an analyst in the online chat on the portal and get a free consultation of an experienced specialist.

Use the current recommendations of analysts on USD/CAD and trade efficiently with NPBFX.