GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD TEST SUPPORT FOLLOWING ROBUST U.S. PMI DATA

Gold prices are trading under pressure on the first trading session of the Q3, following a stronger than expected U.S. ISM manufacturing report, which buoyed the greenback paving the way for lower gold prices.  U.S. construction spending also increased following a sharp climb in April which also helped generated headwinds for the yellow metal. EU unemployment held steady in May, which was in line with expectations.

Gold prices are testing last weeks lows near 1,247 and a break of this level would lead to a test of target support near the December 2017 lows at 1,236.  Resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,260. Momentum is negative but decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 6, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction in gold prices.

U.S. ISM manufacturing index increased More than Expected

U.S. ISM manufacturing index increased 1.5 points to 60.2 in June, better than expected, after rising 1.4 points to 58.7 in May. Expectation wre This number is just off the 60.8 from February which a 14-year high. The employment component dipped to 56.0 from 56.3. And new orders slipped to 63.5 from 63.7. New export orders rose to 56.3 from 55.6. Prices paid fell to 76.8 from 79.5 as some pressures slowed.
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DAILY FOREX REVIEW – MARKETS OPEN A NEW TRADING MONTH

The euro is trading sharply lower on Monday as the German crisis might affect the European politics and economy.

The common currency is falling after good economic data was released on Friday. Economic data showed that headline consumer prices increased 2.0% on the year ending June 2018. This was broadly in line with the median estimates. Core CPI which strips the volatile food and energy prices were seen rising at a slightly slower pace of 1.0% on the year ending June. The month before, core CPI increased 1.1%.
Elsewhere, the UK’s GDP data showed a slightly higher revision. Data from the ONS showed that the GDP advanced 0.2% in the three months ending March 2018. This was a higher revision compared to the 0.1% increase that was reported in the previous two initial estimates.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar for the day will see the release of the manufacturing PMI reports from Spain, France, and Italy. In the UK, the monthly manufacturing PMI data came out at 54.4 down, slightly above analysts expectations.

The U.S. trading session will see the release of the ISM’s manufacturing PMI data. Median estimates forecast that manufacturing activity eased to 58.2, down from 58.7 from the month before.

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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS

It’s another bearish start to the day, following Tuesday’s reversal, with only a handful of majors in positive territory early on as the crypto bulls look to take over the reins, Tuesday’s losses suggesting that any major gains will remain short lived near-term.

Bitcoin Cash Back in the Red
Bitcoin Cash fell by 3.29% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 4.34% gain, to end the day at $755.4.

Upward momentum from Monday’s rally continued through the early part of the day, with Bitcoin Cash rallying through the day’s first major resistance level at $812.07 to an intraday high $831.3 in the early hours before pulling back through the late morning and afternoon to an intraday low $751.1 to bring to an end any hopes of a formation of a near-term bullish trend.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.19% to $754, with Bitcoin Cash managing to recover from Tuesdays late in the day slide that spilled over to the early hours of the day, which led Bitcoin Cash to a morning low $738.1 before recovering to $750 levels.

With the day’s first major support level at $727.23 left untested through the morning, Bitcoin Cash will need to move through $779.27 to support a run at $800 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $807.43, with any move through Tuesday’s $831.3 high bringing $900 levels back into play along with the possibility of a bearish trend reversal.

Failure to move through a morning high $779.27 to $800 levels later in the day could see the Tuesday reversal resume that would bring the day’s first major support level at $727.23 into play, while we would expect Bitcoin Cash to continue holding on to $700 levels in the event of a sell-off.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES STAGNANT

The market continues to have ranging as the name of the game.
The BTC prices continued to trade within a tight range and consolidate, something which we had pointed to in our forecast yesterday. We do not expect much action in the crypto markets in the day ahead as the prices seem to be caught within a range as the market begins to mature and the market begins to get more regulated. Many of the large investors and traders are still waiting on the sidelines to see how the regulations are going to change in due course of time and whether those would be favourable for the market during the short and medium term. Only after all this is done and dusted, they would be in a position to move into trades in due course of time.
BTC Prices Consolidate and Range
The day traders and the short term traders are having a frustrating time as the moves and the volatility in the market has been pretty low over the last few weeks. This is something that we had anticipated and with the region around $6800 capping the prices as far as BTC is concerned, we are seeing some tight trading though the prices have been moving freely below this region. It is going to take some more weeks for the traders and the investors to come to terms with the regulation and the associated price action and till that happens, the other traders do not have much of a choice but to wait and see how things pan out.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS

The majors were the beneficiary of some favourable news from the South Korean government on Saturday, with the moves through the early part of today to decide whether a bearish trend reversal is about to kick in.
Bitcoin Cash in Recovery

Bitcoin Cash gained 5.81% on Saturday, reversing Thursday and Friday’s declines to end the day at $776.2, with the gains pulling Bitcoin Cash back into positive territory for the week, up 5.26% through to the end of Saturday.

The day’s gains came off the back of a late in the day rally from an intraday low $707.7 through the first major resistance level at $751.33 and second major resistance level at $769.57 to an intraday high $781.7 before easing back to $770 levels, the first major support level at $706.73 left untested through the day.

Saturday’s broad based market rally came off the back of news that the South Korean government will loosen its rules on cryptocurrencies in order to align with the G20’s planned roll out of unified global regulations by the end of July deadline.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.69% to $769, with Bitcoin Cash pulling back from a start of the day $783.3 to a morning low $762.2 before recovering.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $783.3 would support a run at $800 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $802.7. In the event of another rally through the day, in the wake of the latest news from South Korea, we would expect Bitcoin Cash to break out from the second major resistance level at $829.2 to bring $900 levels into play before any reversal.

Failure to move through to $800 levels could see Bitcoin Cash pullback through the afternoon to test support at the first major support level of $728.7 before any recovery.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: POUND IS TRADING CLOSE TO RESISTANCE ON DAILY CANDLES NEAR 1.33

STOCKS

Dow (24456.48, +0.41%) moved up while support near 24000 holds just now. Some sideways trade in the 24000-24750 region is possible in the coming sessions before the index moves up further. Near term looks bullish.

Dax (12496.17, +0.26%) has also moved up and looks bullish for the coming sessions targeting 12800-13000.

Nikkei (22063.74, +1.26%) has broken above 22000 level and if the index sustains above 22000, it could target higher levels of 22400-22600 in the medium term.

Shanghai (2789.08, +1.52%) has room on the downside towards 2700-2650. We do not expect a fall below 2650 in the longer run. The fall is likely in its last phase of the fall and would soon start rising back towards 2800+ levels to move higher in the longer run.

Important level to watch in Nifty (10772.65, +0.21%) is 10800. While the index trades below 10800, bearishness could persist. A sustained break above 10800 would trigger some medium term bullishness. Watch price action near 10800.
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NZD/USD FOCUSES ON RISK TRENDS AFTER CREDIT SPENDING DATA

TALKING POINTS:
New Zealand Dollar rose after local credit card spending beat
NZD mirrored market sentiment as global stocks posted gains
The currency pair eyes risk trends and CPI data for next move
The New Zealand Dollar appreciated against its US counterpart ahead of Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Its upside momentum was accelerated in the aftermath of better than expected local monthly retail credit card spending data.

Purchases increased 0.8% versus +0.5% estimated and May’s 0.6% increase. However, the data had a limited impact on RBNZ monetary policy bets, as local two-year government bond yields were largely unchanged. Keep in mind, the reserve bank is awaiting stable 2% inflation as it contemplates a rate change in either direction.

New Zealand’s currency appeared to be more interested in developments in risk trends, rather. S&P 500futures rose heading into Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session, following positive worldwide stock performance. Due to NZD’s relatively higher associated yield in the major FX spectrum, the currency tends to closely follow market sentiment.

Looking ahead, risk trends may impact whether NZD/USD continues its rally, more so than New Zealand economic data. On this front, UK political uncertainty and the US-China trade war is likely to influence the relatively riskier New Zealand Dollar. In the long run, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be closely looking at an upcoming second quarter CPI data release which will be on July 16th.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 11/07/18

It’s been a choppy start to the day as investors remain wary following 3 consecutive days’ of losses across the cryptomarket. The crypto bulls will be looking to steady the ship, though more losses may well be on the cards.
Bitcoin Cash Steadies

Bitcoin Cash fell by 5.77% on Tuesday, following on from Sunday and Monday’s losses, to end the day at $687.4.

A start of the day intraday high $736.6 came up short of the day’s first major resistance level at $752.03 and continued to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $930, as Monday’s 2nd half of the day sell-off continued into the early hours of Tuesday.

Bitcoin Cash fell through the day’s first major support level at $715.83 and second major support level at $702.67 to a morning low $687 before a late in the day pullback saw Bitcoin Cash fall to an intraday low $684.6, the only positive being that the day’s third major support level at $666.47 was left untested on the day.
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US AM DIGEST: EUR DIPS ON ZEW SURVEY, GBP HAMPERED BY SOFT OUTPUT DATA

Major Headlines

German ZEW Survey hits 6 year low on trade war concerns
UK Monthly GDP prints in line with expectations, output data disappoints.
EUR: Among the underperforming currencies amid the bounce back in the USD index. Alongside this, German ZEW survey plunged to its lowest level in 6 years, consequently exacerbating the selling seen in EURUSD, which in turn led to a break below the 1.1700 handle. Elsewhere, Italy’s Savona, stated that it may depend on others whether Italy stays in the Euro, as such this saw Italian bond yields spiked higher, while the FTSE MIB retraced some of its earlier gains.
GBP: The UK economy continued to pick up in May after the slowdown seen in Q1 amid the boost in service sector growth, while manufacturing and industrial activity data disappointed. The first look at the new monthly GDP report printed in line with expectations at 0.3%, while the yearly rate beat consensus at 1.5% (Exp. 1.4%). However, the soft industrial and manufacturing data prompted the selloff in the Pound, while domestic political uncertainty continues to keep GBP on the back foot.

TRY: Once President Erdogan’s executive presidential system came into effect, the President no time in utilising his new powers. Firstly, Erdogan changed the Turkish Central Bank law, allowing him to appoint who he wants as deputy governors without the consent of the governor. Most notably Erdogan appointed his son-in-law as the new finance minister and removed the market friendly, Simsek and Al Babacan which prompted a sell-off in the Turkish Lira. As such, Erdogan has tightened his control over crucial policy areas without the involvement of qualified domain experts.
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AUD FALLS ON CHINA GDP AS NBS SEES EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD

TALKING POINTS:
Australian Dollar depreciates despite solid Chinese second quarter GDP
Weaker industrial production amidst US Chinese import tariffs hurt AUD
China’s NBS does see more external uncertainties for the economy ahead
The Australian Dollar depreciated against its major counterparts despite some relatively solid Chinese second quarter growth statistics. China’s economy expanded 6.7% y/y which was in line with expectations and slower than the 6.8% growth seen in the first quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, China’s GDP was 1.8%. This was better than the +1.6% estimate and up from 1.4% prior.

Overall, these economic growth statistics were largely as expected and nothing extraordinary out of the realm of possibilities. Yet, what could have caused some weakness in the Aussie Dollar? And for that matter, the New Zealand Dollar as well? Look no further more than the industrial production figures which also crossed the wires simultaneously with the GDP data.

In June, Chinese industrial production increased only 6.0% y/y versus 6.5% anticipated and 6.8% in May. That was the weakest outcome since March and continues a trend of slowing expansion since April. Perhaps the tariffs US applied on China could be having some effects here. In fact, accompanying the slew of data were some comments from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES SURGE

The prices have surged higher due to support from some large investors and the improvement of fundamentals in the market.
The BTC prices have got a boost over the last 24 hours and now the bulls are beginning to look quite threatening. The prices have been buoyant over the last week or so when compared to the previous weeks and over the last week, we have seen the prices make a move to push through the $6800 region a couple of times as well. They have been rejected so far but the point to note here is that the correction following the rejection has been pretty slow and shallow and the rebound has been quick and strong which shows that the bulls are slowly beginning to take control of the market. But the prices are still below the important resistance region of $6800 and this region is going to witness a huge battle between the bulls and the bears for control.
BTC Prices Looking to Break Range
The push higher has come due to some strong buying from some large investors and also with the reports of the entry of some large investors into the crypto market. We also saw that the tie taken for mining between 2 blocks of BTC took almost an hour and this has led to a slowdown in the mining and with the supply getting limited, the natural consequence of that is the fact that the prices have to move up and this is what we saw yesterday. But though the prices have risen, as long as there is no breakout from the range, the bears continue to be in control and the bulls have to do a lot more to take control but we are going to see soe interesting price action ahead.
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USD/JPY FUNDAMENTAL DAILY FORECAST – U.S. RETAIL SALES EXPECTED TO RISE 0.4%

On Monday, the USD/JPY is going to continue to be sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields and appetite for risk. The Forex pair could continue to climb if tensions rise due to increasing concerns over the trade dispute between the United States and China. This is because investors are treating the dollar like a safe haven asset. Trading is light early Monday because of a bank holiday in Japan. At 1230 GMT, the U.S. is scheduled to release reports on Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index. At 1400 GMT, Look for a report on Business Inventories.

The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly lower early Monday. Traders are reacting to firm demand for higher risk assets and slightly higher U.S. Treasury yields. On Friday, the yen recovered from a six-month low against the Greenback.

At 0047 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 112.429, up 0.080 or +0.07%.

Last week, the Dollar/Yen was driven higher in reaction to robust U.S. producer and consumer inflation data that supported the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates at least two more times in 2018. Upbeat comments on the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also stoked demand for the dollar.

Last Thursday, Fed chief Powell said in a Marketplace radio interview he believes the U.S. economy remains in a “good place,” with recent government tax and spending programs likely to boost growth for perhaps three years.

On Friday, the Fed released its semiannual report on monetary policy before Powell’s scheduled testimony to Congress this week on Tuesday and Wednesday. The report showed solid U.S. economic growth and the Fed expecting to keep raising rates gradually.

Also on Friday, the USD/JPY weakened after University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data fell more than expected. This encouraged Dollar/Yen bulls to book profits after the Forex pair hit a six-month high earlier in the session.
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