LiteForex analitics. AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

This week, Australian investors are focused on the poor national building sector data, as housing prices in many cities are declining, especially in Sydney (2.3%) and Melbourne (1.3%). On Wednesday, Building Permits data will be released, which can decrease by 3% in April, reflecting, that the prices are falling and construction companies would not open new deals.
The Australian Monetary Authority is still calm. Officials of the RBA, including its head Philip Lowe, have repeatedly noted that there is no need to correct the monetary policy. However, further tightening of the interest rate may put additional pressure on property prices and negatively affect the Australian economy in general. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held next week.

Support and resistance

Since the end of April, the price has been moving within the sideways range of 0.7568–0.7446 (Murray [4/8]–[2/8], the lower border of Bollinger bands). The price is now testing the level of 0.7507 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands) and then will move to the lower border of the sideways range, according to the indicators. Stochastic is directed downward, MACD histogram is set in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 0.7568, 0.7629.
Support levels: 0.7507, 0.7446, 0.7385.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level 0.7507 with the targets at 0.7446, 0.7385 and stop loss around 0.7530.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7629 and stop loss 0.7530.

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

After a serious decline last Friday, Brent crude oil attempted an upward correction reaching 77.70 (the midline of Bollinger Bands) but cannot consolidate above it.
The instrument is constrained by the increase in the volume of the US commercial oil reserves according to the API (by 1.001 million barrels to 434.9 million barrels), as well as the possibility of an increase in production by 1 million barrels by OPEC countries and Russia in June. This should cover the supply shortage related to interruptions from Iran and Venezuela. European companies aren't leaving the Iranian oil market now, hoping that US sanctions will take effect only after the end of the 180-day preparatory period. In May, the volume of Iranian exports decreased insignificantly, from 2.6 to 2.5 million barrels per day. The place of European companies can be taken by Asian ones. The Chinese Sinopec is currently working on completing a USD 3 billion deal to develop the largest Iranian oil fields.
In the evening, investors are waiting for new EIA data on US oil stocks. The drop of 1.200 million barrels is expected, which can provide serious support to prices.

Support and resistance

If the instrument consolidates above the midline of Bollinger Bands at 78.12 (Murray [+1/8]), growth is possible to 79.68 (Murray [6/8], H4) and 80.47 (Murray [7/8], H4). Otherwise, the price may return to 75.00 (Murray [8/8]).
Technical indicators show ambiguous signals: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed upwards. MACD histogram is declining in the positive zone.
Support levels: 76.56, 75.78, 75.00.
Resistance levels: 78.12, 79.68, 80.47.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 78.12 with targets at 79.68, 80.47 and stop-loss at 77.80.
Sell positions may be opened from 76.56 with targets at 75.78, 75.00 and stop-loss at 76.90.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

On D1 chart, the price rose above the level of 109.37 ([6/8]) and tests the midline of Bollinger Bands near 109.70 area. Consolidation of the instrument above this level will give the prospect of growth to 110.93 ([7/8]) and 111.71 ([+2/8], H4). Otherwise, the price may resume decline to the levels of 108.20 ([1/8], H4) and 107.81 ([5/8]).
Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. MACD histogram stopped declining but is still close to the zero line. Stochastic is pointing down but has approached the oversold zone, so a reverse and the formation of a sell signal are likely.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 109.37 ([6/8]), 108.20 ([1/8], H4), 107.81 ([5/8]).
Resistance levels: 110.00 (weekly maximum), 110.93 ([7/8]), 111.71 ([+2/8], H4).

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 109.37 with targets at 108.20, 107.81 and the stop-loss at 109.70.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 110.00 with targets at 110.93, 111.71 and stop-loss at 109.70.
Implementation time: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair is influenced by contradictory factors. On the one hand, positive British Service, Manufacturing, and Construction PMI inspired the investors and gave hopes for reduction of BoE monetary stimulus. On the other hand, Brexit situation is incurring significant risks for the British economy. In general, business is preparing for hard times. Representatives of major European and British companies have warned Prime Minister Theresa May about a possible reduction in investment, which would cause a reduction in jobs number.
The lack of a compromise upon Brexit in the British government worsens the situation. Recently, Theresa May proposed to leave the UK in the EU United Customs zone temporary, which would let avoid the physical borders in Ireland. However, this plan has raised objections from a number of ministers, including David Davis, Boris Johnson, and Liam Fox, who insisted that the UK's stay within the customs union should be limited to a specific unmovable deadline.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair has been growing for two weeks but was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands. In the case of a breakdown below the level of 1.3366 (Murray [6/8]), a further decline to the level of 1.3300 (Murray [4/8]) is possible, which is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic reversed downwards, MACD decreases in the positive zone. The key "bullish" level is 1.3427 (Murray [0/8]). In case of the breakout, the price can grow to 1.3488 (Murray [+2/8]), 1.3540.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3488.
Support levels: 1.3366, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3366 with the target at 1.3300 and a stop loss around 1.3400.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3427 with the targets at 1.3488, 1.3540 and stop loss 1.3390.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday, the pair dropped against the background of the results of the Fed's meeting. The key interest rate was raised from 1.75% to 2.00%, and the majority of the Committee members expect two more increases this year.
Today, GBP won back its lost positions, which was facilitated by strong May data on the UK retail sales. YoY the indicator grew from 1.4% to 3.9%. Increased volumes of retail sales were promoted by warm weather and Prince Harry's wedding. These strong data did not clarify the British economy state. After March decline, the indicator has been growing for the second month in a row. But this growth is caused by temporary factors and in June the decline may resume. The Bank of England may need new data to make a decision on the interest rate. Many investors expect its increase in August, especially after the deputy head of the British regulator, Dave Ramsden, spoke last week in favor of rising lending costs.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price is testing the 1.3427 level (Murrey [+1/8]) and, if it consolidates above it, the price can continue to rise to the levels of 1.3540 and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). The key level for the "bears" seems to be 1.3365 (midline of Bollinger Bands). If it is broken down, the price may drop to 1.3300 and 1.3220 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators generally indicate growth. MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is reversing upwards.
Support levels: 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3220.
Resistance levels: 1.3427, 1.3540, 1.3671.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 1.3427 with targets at 1.3540, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3380.
Sell positions may be opened below 1.3365 with targets at 1.3300, 1.3220 and stop-loss at 1.3400.
Implementation period: 5-7 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: the dollar is dropping

Current trend

USD showed a stable decrease against JPY on Tuesday, updating the local low of June 11. The growth of the Japanese currency is fueled by the growing US-China trade conflict.
At the same time, the dollar is relatively stable, as it receives support from the Fed's actions aimed at gradual tightening of monetary policy.
Today, the pair is also trading in an upward direction. Traders focus on the published minutes of the April meeting of the Bank of Japan, which in many respects turned out to be neutral. According to the protocol, only one official spoke in favor of additional stimulation measures, while the overwhelming majority of board members advocated the preservation of the monetary policy vector.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are gradually reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous nature of trading in recent days. MACD reversed downwards having formed a sell signal (located under the signal line). Stochastic is going down and is located in the middle of its area.
Technical indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term. The existing short positions should be left open for some time.
Resistance levels: 110.25, 110.60, 111.00, 111.38.
Support levels: 109.90, 109.53, 109.17, 108.83.

Trading tips

To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of the level of 110.25 if signals for the uptrend development in the short and/or ultra-short term emerge. Take-profit — 111.00. Stop-loss — 109.80.
The rebound from the level of 110.25 as from resistance, with the subsequent breakdown of 109.90, can become a signal to new sales with target at 109.17, 109.00 or 108.83. Stop-loss — 110.40.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

LiteForex analitics. CAC: technical analysis

CAC, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is about to test from below its longer MA.

CAC, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting down from the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is about to test its longer MA as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 5300.0 (local lows), 5285.0 (local lows), 5265.0 (November 2017 lows).
Resistance levels: 5400.0 (local highs), 5435.0 (local highs), 5500.0 (local highs).

Trading tips

The fall is likely to continue.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 5300.0, 5285.0, 5265.0 and stop-loss at 5375.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5435.0 with the target at 5500.0 and stop-loss at 5400.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

At the beginning of the week, the pair is declining, and it is now trading around 1.1630. Today’s EU Markit Manufacturing PMI slightly decreased from 55.0 to 54.9 points.
EUR is under pressure of German government crisis. Leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU) Horst Seehofer intends to leave the post of Internal Minister in Merkel’s government, as he does not agree with the Chancellor's migration policy. CSU members insist on tightening the fight against illegal migration, up to the ban on new migrants entering the country.
On Monday, negotiations between the leaders of the CSU and CDU (Christian Democratic Union, Angela Merkel) are planned to find a compromise in the migration issue. The failure can lead to the disintegration of the German ruling coalition, which will inevitably weaken EUR.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the midline of Bollinger bands 1.1670 (D1) and cannot consolidate above it. In case of German government crisis worsening, the instrument can fall to the levels of 1.1540 (May’s lows area) and 1.1474 (Murrey [–2/8]). The breakout of the midline of Bollinger bands and the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) will let the price grow to the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8], the upper border of Bollinger bands). Technical indicators confirm the possibility of growth. Stochastic turns up, MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840.
Support levels: 1.1540, 1.1474.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1718 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss 1.1670.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.1600 with the targets at 1.1540, 1.1474 and stop loss around 1.1640.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair is corrected downwards due to weak economic statistics from Japan.
Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in Q2 2018 dropped from 24 to 21 points and Manufacturing PMI in June dropped from 53.1 to 53.0 points.
Also, JPY is under pressure of the decision of the People's Bank of China not to use the yuan as a weapon in the trade war with the US. This was announced by the head of the Chinese regulator Yi Gang. In general, the potential to strengthen JPY as a safe haven asset remains, especially if the US-China trade conflict continues to worsen.
In addition, on Wednesday, the Japanese Bank of Japan board member Yutaka Harada addressed the leaders of Japanese business. The official noted that the current level of unemployment in the country (2.2%) is too high and to achieve inflation level of 2.0% it is necessary to further reduce it. Therefore, the Bank of Japan intends to continue soft monetary policy.

Support and resistance

The price has fallen to the midline of Bollinger Bands to 110.15. The breakdown of this level will give the prospect of further decline to 109.37 (Murrey [4/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 108.59 (Murrey [5/8]). This possibility is indicated by Stochastic which has left the overbought area. The key to the "bulls" is 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]), which was tested unsuccessfully in May. Consolidation of the price above it will cause an increase to 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 112.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Support levels: 110.15, 109.37, 108.59.
Resistance levels: 110.93, 111.72, 112.50.

Trading tips

Buy positions can be opened above 110.93 with targets at 111.72, 112.50 and stop-loss at 110.50.
Sell positions may be opened below 110.15 with targets at 109.37, 108.59 and stop-loss at 110.40.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, US trade duties on goods produced in China came into effect, totaling USD 34 billion. According to experts, the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be noticeable in 3-6 months and may lead to a 0.2% decrease in its growth. Now investors are waiting for the official reaction of the Chinese authorities, in particular, the press conference of the Premier of the State Council of the PRC, Li Keqiang. Beijing's response may be symmetric, but the US administration warned that if the conflict escalated, it could introduce additional duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 500 billion.
In the evening, investors expect the publication of data on Nonfarm payrolls in the US. The indicator can decline from 223K to 195K. Thursday's statistics on ADP Employment Change also proved to be weak: in June the indicator dropped from 189K to 177K.
Support and resistance

The price is testing 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and in case of consolidation above it the price can reach the levels of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]). A breakdown of the midline of Bollinger Bands at 1.1650 will give the prospect of a decline to the level of 1.1530 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Indicators show growth. Stochastic is directed upwards, and MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.1650, 1.1530.
Resistance levels: 1.1718, 1.1840, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1718 with target at 1.1840 and stop-loss at 1.1670.
Sell positions may be opened above the level of 1.1650 with target at 1.1530 and stop-loss at 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair moved in different directions: poor June US employment market data affected it negatively, but as the tough rhetoric did not develop after the US-China trade taxes implementation, USD did not fall further.
On Monday, ECB officials commented on the current economic situation. The head of the regulator, Mario Draghi in the European Parliament noted the growing role of protectionism in the world trade and expressed hope for EU consumer prices growth. In Zurich, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny expressed his fear that the US-China trade war could turn into a currency one. Earlier, the head of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang claimed the intention not to use the Yuan as a weapon in trade disputes, but the market was not satisfied.
Today, the traders focus on EU and German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment release, which is expected to decline: from –16.1 to –18.0 points in Germany and from 12.6 to –13.2 points in EU. The growth of pessimism is due to EU, China and the USA trade conflict.

Support and resistance

The price grew above 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and can move to 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]), tested in May. A breakdown of the middle line of Bollinger bands around 1.1650 will let the price return to 1.1540. Indicators’ readings are ambiguous. Stochastic reverses in the overbought zone. MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1650, 1.1540.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.1780 with the target at 1.1840 and stop loss at the level of 1.1740.
Short positions can be opened below 1.1650 with the target at 1.1540 and the stop loss around 1.1690.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

This week the pair was growing, and by now it has reached the level of 112.40. The investors are focused on the US-China trade war. The government of Japan, represented by Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, has already expressed concern about its escalation. China and the United States are the largest trading partners of the country, and last year the export of Japanese goods in these directions amounted to $300 billion. The decline in the economic growth of the US and China could affect Japanese exporters negatively. According to experts, the consequences of the trade war are likely to come in the next year, and the country's economy may lose 0.6%.
On Thursday, investors are waiting for the publication of June inflation data in the US. It is expected that the Consumer Price Index (YoY) may reach 2.9%, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) will reach 2.3%. Thus, the basic indicator of inflation may remain above the target level (2.0%) for the fourth consecutive month. However, despite good economic results, FOMC members can reduce the number of rate increases this year, primarily due to the deepening trade US-China crisis.

Support and resistance

The price is now reaching the level of 112.50 (the upper border of the Murrey range [8/8]), where a reversal and correction to the levels 111.72 (Murrey [7/8]) and 110.93 (Murrey [6/8]) are possible. The price breaking the upper line of Bollinger bands and Stochastic entering the overbought zone confirm the forecast. The further growth is possible only if the price consolidates above the level of 112.50, in this case, the “bullish” targets will be 114.06 (Murrey [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 112.50, 114.06.
Support levels: 111.72, 110.93, 110.15.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 112.50 with the targets at 111.72, 110.93 and stop loss at the level of 112.80.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with the target at 114.06 and stop loss around 112.70.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.