USD/JPY – STUCK IN A 40-PIPS RANGE

Stuck in 106.00-106.40 range.
Risk reversals retrace JPY call bias.
USD/JPY has been restricted to a narrow range of 106.00-106.40 since Friday’s late NY trading and the risk reversals indicate the range could be breached on the higher side.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 106.23, having clocked a high of 106.37 and a low of 106.10. The pair hit a low of 105.55 on Friday before moving back above 106.00 on chart factors (oversold conditions). Also, the options market indicates the premium held by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts has dropped over the last few days.

The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at JPY 2.025 calls vs. JPY 2.425 calls on Feb. 12. Also, weekly risk reversals are being paid at JPY 1.53 calls vs. JPY 2.50 calls. The decline in demand for JPY calls (as highlighted by the drop in premium) could be an indication the investors are expecting a corrective rally in the USD/JPY spot.

So, the 40-pip trading range could end with an upside break. That said, the fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China could keep Yen losses under the check.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-stuck-40-pips-range/

AUD/USD FALLS BACK DOWN FOLLOWING CONSTRUCTION DATA DISAPPOINTMENT

AUD/USD retreats on construction miss.
USD getting a push from bond yields.
AUD/USD has dropped lower again following a pick up in early Tokyo trading, and the pair is currently back down below 0.7880.

The Aussie slipped against the Greenback after a disappointment in the Construction Work Done figures for the 4th quarter of 2017, coming in at a 19.4 contraction, widely missing the median market forecast of a 10% decline, and a deep correction from the previous reading of 16.6%. While Wage Price Index data posted a mild beat over forecasts with year-on-year posting 2.1% versus the anticipated 2%, mixed economic data points for Australia continues to pigeonhole the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in wait-and-see mode. Headline growth figures for Australia continue to lag behind global trends, and the RBA is left in a holding pattern, unlikely to raise key rates into 2020 while central banks around the world prepare to begin tightening their respective easy fiscal policies and prepare to fight inflation.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-falls-back-following-construction-data-disappointment/

USD/JPY FLIRTS WITH 107.00 HANDLE, RISK REVERSALS SHED JPY CALL BIAS

Risk reversals show demand for JPY calls (bullish bets) is falling.
Eyes Powell testimony
The USD/JPY pair’s recovery from 106.38 yesterday has left a higher low on the daily chart, indicating a short-term bottom has been made at 105.55 (Feb. 16 low).

Further, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) gauge indicates falling demand for JPY calls (buy Yen). As of writing, the risk reversals are being paid at 1.4 JPY calls vs. 2.4 JPY calls seen on Feb. 12. The drop in the JPY volatility premium (from 2.4 to 1.4) indicates JPY bullish bias has weakened.

The technical setup and the activity in the options market clearly indicate the investors believe the new Fed chair Jerome Powell will remain measured in his first testimony (due later today).

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-flirts-107-00-handle-risk-reversals-shed-jpy-call-bias/

NZD/USD RE-ATTEMPTS 0.7200 POST-UPBEAT CHINA PMI

Weighed by rising DXY, at five-week tops.
Losses capped by upbeat Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI?
Focus shifts to US data and Powell’s testimony.
The NZD/USD pair extended its bearish momentum for the third straight session and went to hit fresh three-week lows at 0.7187 levels amid strengthening demand for the US dollar across the board.

NZD/USD: Supported well above 200-DMA at 0.7167

The spot is seen making minor recovery attempts and looks to regain the 0.72 handle, as the bulls were offered some respite from the unexpected improvement seen in the Chinese manufacturing sector activity, as reported by Caixin earlier today.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI surprises positively in Feb

However, it remains to be seen if the major can sustain the recovery mode, as risk-off sentiment seen across the Asian markets continue to weigh negatively on the higher-yielding currency, the NZD. Meanwhile, the Kiwi tracks the declines in its OZ neighbor, the Aussie, after the Aus capex data disappointing markets.

From a broader perspective, the divergent monetary policy outlooks continue to remain in the favor of the greenback, given the recent hawkish surprise delivered by the new Fed Chair Powell while the RBNZ is expected to remain on hold in the coming months, despite reasonable NZ fundamentals.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-re-attempts-0-7200-post-upbeat-china-pmi/

NZD/USD SAGS AS CAIXIN PMI SLIPS, NZ TREASURY HIGHLIGHTS SPARE CAPACITY

The Kiwi is weakening on softer Asia data.
A thin macro schedule for the week heading into NFP Friday.
The Kiwi is subdued in Monday trading, testing closer to Friday’s low of 0.7218.

The NZD/USD pair heads into the new week fighting the slide, with the Chinese Caixin Services PMI slipping to 54.2, missing the forecast 54.3 after the previous period’s 54.7.

Adding to the Kiwi’s woes is the New Zealand Treasury’s Monthly Economic Indicators (MEI); while the data is mainly positive, several caveats were underlined that hamper any real breakout potential for the NZD/USD pair. The Treasury noted that despite unemployment continuing to drop (down to 4.5% in December) and consumption spending ticking upwards, under-employment remains stable and wage growth remains restrained, highlighting the spare capacity still running through the New Zealand economy.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-sags-caixin-pmi-slips-nz-treasury-highlights-spare-capacity/

NZD/USD – RESILIENT TO RISK-OFF IN EARLY ASIA, YIELD DIFFERENTIAL RISES IN NZD-POSTIVE MANNER

Kiwi stuck in a 25-pip range of 0.73-0.7775 in Asia, despite risk-off.
10Y NZ-US yield spread rises in the NZD-positive manner.
Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn’s resignation boosted trade war fears and weighed over risk assets in early Asia. The S&P 500 futures fell almost 1.5 percent and the Japanese Yen rose across the board.

Also, the dairy product prices fell at the GlobalDairyTrade auction, with whole milk powder declining amid an increase in supply.

Still, the NZD remained relatively resilient, possibly due to favorable yield spread. The 10-year NZ-US yield spread rose to 16 basis points (bps) yesterday from 10 basis points. As of writing, the spread stands at 18 basis points, while the Kiwi is trading marginally weak at 0.7285.

The currency pair rose from 0.7221 to 0.7311 yesterday after news hit the wires that North Korea is willing to hold talks with the US over its nuclear weapons programme.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-resilient-risk-off-early-asia-yield-differential-rises-nzd-postive-manner/

NZD/USD EXTENDING PAST 0.73 HANDLE DESPITE WANING RISK APPETITE

Kiwi higher in Asia to kick off the new week, but little macro data for the NZD this week.
Japanese cronyism headlines are weakening risk assets, but Kiwi remaining resilient.
The Kiwi is on the upside in the early Monday session, testing up into 0.7320 in the Tokyo markets.

The NZD/USD has been climbing steadily in March, following commodities higher in the face of the ongoing trade war risks spurred on by Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum import tariffs. Little data is slated for the Kiwi for the first half of the week, but the Business PMI on Thursday may give Kiwi bulls something to think about, depending on how the US Monthly Budget Statement goes over today at 18:00 GMT.

The top is getting taken off of risk assets in the Asia session as the Japanese political drama continues to unfold. Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, may have sold government land at a steep discount to a school operator with ties to Abe’s wife, and allegations that Finance Minister Aso forged documents related to the sale of the land are beginning to fly along the wires.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-extending-past-0-73-handle-despite-waning-risk-appetite/

EUR/USD – BULL CASE STRENGTHENS, EYES DRAGHI SPEECH, US RETAIL SALES DATA

Euro looks north as trade war fears flare again.
Focus on Draghi speech.
Dismal US data could yield stronger rally to 1.25.
The common currency nudged higher in Asia, pushing the EUR/USD to a four-day high of 1.2412, courtesy of turbulence in Washington and increased fears of full-blown US-China trade war.

China may retaliate by taking strong measures

In past trade confrontations with the US, China has often backed off, according to a Reuters report. But this time the world’s second-largest economy may retaliate with tariffs that hurt US agriculture and manufacturing sector.
Euro could move above 1.2446 (March 8 high) if China responds with strong words to news of broader US tariffs on Chinese imports.

Draghi will likely sound dovish

ECB’s Draghi, scheduled to speak at 08:00 GMT, will likely reiterate, there is no urgency in removing accommodation given the lack of inflation pressure. The Eurozone will also see ECB’s Praet speech at 8.45 GMT. Industrial production and employment change data for the Eurozone is due for release at 10.00 GMT. ECB’s Coeuré will wrap up the day with a speech at 16.15.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-n...il-sales-data/

EUR/USD: FOCUS ON DIVERGING CENTRAL BANK EXPECTATIONS AHEAD OF FED

Euro under pressure due to diverging central bank expectations.
ECB lift off in 2019, a distant dream.
Yield differential widens in the USD-positive manner.
The common currency traded on the backfoot against the greenback in Asia and will likely extend losses in Europe and US session, courtesy of diverging monetary policy expectations.

The bullish breakout in the Euribor futures, as discussed on Friday, indicates the markets no longer expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates in 2019. Meanwhile, speculation is gathering pace that Fed would revise higher its dot plot chart to four 2018 rate hikes at the forthcoming meeting.

Consequently, the 10-year US-German yield spread has jumped to the highest level since late 2016. Thus, the EUR is becoming less attractive.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/eur-usd-focus-diverging-central-bank-expectations-ahead-fed/

EUR/USD: FOCUS ON FED’S DOT PLOT AND POWELL PRESSER

The higher terminal rate could push up the treasury yields and the US dollar. 
Powell’s take on trade wars and inflation eyed.
The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.2355 to 1.2240 on Tuesday, creating another lower high on the daily chart, courtesy of the disappointing German Zew survey and the drop in the bond yields across the Eurozone.

Also, expectations of hawkish Fed and the rise in the short duration treasury yields seem to have played a role in pushing the pair lower.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 1.2262. The previous day’s close of 1.2242 was the weakest since March 1 and has opened doors for a drop to 1.2072 (100-day moving average).

Focus on Fed, an upward revision of terminal rate would be USD bullish

The USD will likely surge across the board if the Fed revises higher the 2019/2020 interest rate forecasts, signaling scope for a higher terminal rate. As of now, the market believes the new normal interest rate (also known as a terminal rate or peak rate) is 2.50-2.75 percent.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/eur-usd-focus-feds-dot-plot-powell-presser/

BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 23/03/18

The bears continue to plague the markets this morning, as investors respond to negative news hitting the wires through the 2nd half of the week.

Bitcoin Cash on Slide

Bitcoin Cash fell by 1.84% on Thursday, following Wednesday’s 2.95% fall, to end the day at $1,011. The bullish trend that had been formed last Sunday evening reversed on Wednesday morning and, despite Bitcoin rising to an intraday high $1,066 in the early hours of Thursday, the bearish trend remained intact through the day, falling to an intraday low $981.9.
While the intraday high failed to test major resistance levels, the $981.9 low tested the day’s first major resistance level of $995.67 and buyer appetite at the day’s 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $991.56, though support was not enough for Bitcoin Cash to break through the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,026.89 by the close.
There may have been hopes of a recovery going into this morning, with Bitcoin Cash managing to recover to $1,000 levels by the close, but the sell-off continued through the early hours of today.
At the time of writing Bitcoin Cash was down 4.57% to $966.3, with the day ahead looking bleak as investors responded to yet more negative news hitting the wires.
For the day ahead, with Bitcoin Cash sitting below the day’s first major support level of $973.27, failure to move through to $1,000 levels could see the day’s 2nd support level of $935.53 tested, with Bitcoin Cash sitting well below the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $1,006.
It’s certainly looking bearish going into the weekend and, while investors have been quick to jump in on the dips of late, there may well be a pause this time around.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-f...ysis-23-03-18/

BITCOIN PRICE FORECAST MARCH 27, 2018, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin markets rolled over again during the trading session on Monday, as crypto currency markets continue to roll over and show signs of weakness. By the time the Americans got up, Bitcoin was down 4%.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin markets rolled over during the trading session during the day on Monday, breaking below the $8100 level. I think that the market will go down to the $80,000 level next, and then perhaps down to the $7000 level. The market has been struggling for some time, and currently it looks as if it isn’t going to change anytime soon. Rallies of this point will continue to attract sellers from what I see, and I think that it’s going to take a lot to turn this market around. It’s not until we break above the $10,000 level that I feel the buyers will start to gain the upper hand. The market has been losing volume, and quite frankly far too many retail traders are underwater to get involved again.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-f...ical-analysis/