ETH/USD PRICE FORECAST JANUARY 10, 2018, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Briefly, Ethereum had fallen to number 3 in the crypto currency world based upon value. However, we have seen the market take over the number 2 level again, as the resiliency continues to prove itself. The market now seems to be knocking on the door of the $1250 level, which being broken to the upside should send this market much higher. At that point, I would anticipate a move to the $1300 level initially, and then longer-term I would look for the $1500 level. In the meantime, I think short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities as we build up the momentum necessary to break out. I think that the $1000 level underneath is probably the “floor” in the market, so therefore it’s not until we break down below that level that I would be concerned with Ethereum overall.

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GBP/USD – 1.39 ON THE CARDS?

GBP/USD chewed through a key resistance zone on Friday.
CME data show max additions in 1.39 strike call option.
Technicals favor further upside.
Having defended 1.35 levels since the beginning of the year, the GBP/USDchewed through strong resistance in the 1.3659-1.3710 area on Friday and closed above 1.37 for the first time since June 2016.

The strong move upwards seems to have revived interest in the GBP/USDcalls. The CME data for GBP/USD February expiry options shows the open interest/open positions in call options rose by 1526 contracts on Friday. Meanwhile, the open interest in put options increased by a mere 408 contracts.

What’s more interesting is that open interest at 1.39 strike call went up by 754 contracts. Also, additions were seen in 1.3950 call, 1.40 call and 1.4050 call. The numbers indicate the investors could be betting on a further upside in the pair, possibly towards 1.39 levels.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-1-39-cards/

GBP/USD REJECTED AT 1.3835, SURRENDERS 1.3800

Closely tracks DXY price-action.
Brexit headlines will continue to weigh.
Focus shifts to the US industrial figures.
The GBP/USD pair failed once again to sustain above the 1.38 handle, now accelerating the corrective slide from fresh post-Brexit vote highs reached at 1.3836.

GBP/USD back to test 5-DMA at 1.3768

The spot ran into the key resistance zone located near 1.3835, as the US dollaris seen recovering early losses versus its main peers, having dipped to the lowest levels since Dec 2014 at 89.98. The USD index looks to stabilize near 90.25 levels, as attention now turns towards the US industrial production data due later on Wednesday.

The AceTrader Team explained, “although the greenback snapped its recent losing streak initially on Tuesday and staged a rebound against the majority of its peers on short-covering, the intra-day decline in U.S. stocks where the Dow tumbled from record highs of 26086 triggered renewed broad-based USD selling in late New York trade.”

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-rejected-1-3835-surrenders-1-3800/

NZD/USD STUCK AT 0.73 FOR A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION

Kiwi struggles to cut through offers around 0.76.
Overbought technical conditions at play?
Focus on US-NZ yield spread and US government shutdown.
The NZD/USD is struggling to rise above 0.76 in a convincing manner for the fifth straight session.

Having rallied 7.67 percent from the November low of 0.6780, the pair looks overbought as per daily RSI. Still, the downside has been capped near 0.7230 this week, courtesy of broad-based US dollar weakness.

The story has not changed much this Friday. The US 10-year treasury yield rose above 2.63 percent; the highest level since December 2016. Still, the USD has failed to catch a bid. Also, keeping USD no the back foot are fears of a US government shutdown.

Earlier today, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to fund government operations through Feb. 16. However, the bill still needs an approval by the Senate, where it faces an uncertain future.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-stuck-0-73-fifth-consecutive-session/

GBP/USD RISES ABOVE 1.40 FOR THE FIRST SINCE POST-BREXIT VOTE

Cable peeps above 1.40 in Asia.
Defies weak UK data and rising treasury yields.
Will it hold above 1.40?
GBP/USD clocked a  new post-Brexit vote high of 1.4003 and was last seen trading at 1.3990 levels.

As discussed yesterday, the rally looks unjustified if we take into account the widening 10-year UK-US yield spread. Also, the RSI has diverged on 1-hour and 4-hour time frame (has not made news highs along with price), signaling the potential for a pullback. Further, a false upside break would be confirmed if the spot closes below 1.3945 (Jan 19. high).

That said, the macro data out of UK has not been encouraging either. As Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management says, consumer price growth slowed year over year and retail sales nosedived in the month of December. Excluding auto purchases, retail sales experienced its largest decline in 7 months.

Hence, GBP bulls may find it hard to keep the pair above 1.40 unless the labor data due tomorrow shows a sharp rise in the wage growth figures.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-rises-1-40-first-since-post-brexit-vote/

USD/JPY BACK IN NO MAN’S LAND AFTER A TURBULENT NY SESSION

USD/JPY to crumble again or…?
USD/JPY not quite out of the woods yet.
After a day caught between the ECB surprise and the Trump comments sending the dollar all over the place overnight, currently, USD/JPY is trading at 109.60, up 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 109.79 and low at 109.19.

USD/JPY rallied on the Trump comments around the dollar when he was speaking in a CNBC interview, saying that he wants a ‘strong dollar’, and reiterating the comments that he had made in Davos earlier when he said that Mnuchin comments were taken out of context. He said that the dollar was going to get “stronger and stronger”.

The dollar’s reversal

The dollar reversed to make a high of 89.5800 and a big figure higher than the lows of the day, closing near to the opening price of 89.2830 to end near enough flat on the day. US yields were in a range of between 2.61%-2.67% -0.97% on the day closing at 2.62%. USD/JPY collapsed to 108.49 before the Trump rally and a close of 109.40 after a high of 109.70 that was faded.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-back-no-mans-land-turbulent-ny-session/

GBP/USD – LOW ODDS OF FURTHER NEAR-TERM GBP GAINS?

Risk reversals indicate falling demand for GBP calls.
Theresa May is now odds-on to resign in 2018, most options will hurt sterling.
GBP/USD options activity indicates a near-term top could be in place at 1.4345 (Jan. 25 high).

The implied volatility premium for GBP calls over GBP puts has quickly faded, as indicated by the risk reversals, suggesting investors are less concerned about a further near-term rally in GBP.

GBP/USD One-week 25 delta risk reversals are paid at 0.22 GBP puts today from a 0.17 GBP call bias two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the benchmark 1-month 25 delta risk reversals are 0.03 GBP calls from 0.375 GBP calls last week (also the long-term high).

PM May’s resignation could hurt Pound

Speculation is on the rise that “window is closing” on PM May’s leadership after recent complaints about her lack of vision and rows about the direction of Brexit. That said, May’s exit could be bad for the British Pound.

Reuters report says, “of the eight shortest priced names-in-the-frame quoted by bookmaker Paddy Power, at least four would raise the risk of a GBP-negative disorderly Brexit. Those four are Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove, all of whom backed the leave campaign.”

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-low-odds-near-term-gbp-gains/

AUD/JPY – RANGE TRADING CONTINUES

AUD/JPY mildly bid above 88.00.
AUD relatively resilient against USD.
But 88.50-87.70 range still intact.
Currently, AUD/JPY is up 0.14 percent at $88.07, largely due to an uptick in the USD/JPY pair and a flat AUD/USD pair.

The USD/JPY pair is up 0.13 percent seemingly due to the Fed’s upward revision of the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar is relatively resilient, despite a big drop in the building permits (reported earlier today). Thus, the AUD / JPY cross is mildly bid in Asia.

That said, the trading range of 88.50-87.70 is still intact. Considering the double top formation around 89.00, the pair will likely end the trading range with a downside break.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-range-trading-continues/

NZD/USD DRIFTING IN TOKYO AFTER JOBS DATA BEAT, TRADING NEAR 0.7330

Kiwi slowly leaking back gains from positive data during a quiet Asia session.
Recent risk aversion sparked temporary Dollar popularity, Greenback selling set to continue.
NZD/USD trading doftly down in Asia, near 0.7330 after a good jump minutes before the NY close on a jobs data beat. The Kiwi has appreciated against the US Dollar the past two months as market confidence evaporated for the Greenback, but the recent bout of risk aversion seen in markets has sent the Dollar back up the charts, albeit briefly.

New Zealand’s RBNZ will be publishing their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement today at 20:00, and while the bank is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates for the time being, an overly hawkish tone from the RBNZ could send the Kiwi back up the charts.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-drifting-tokyo-jobs-data-beat-trading-near-0-7330/

AUD/USD IS NOT IMPRESSED BY A RISE IN CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS

China iron ore imports increased by 15.7 million tonnes in January.
Yuan-denominated trade surplus narrowed to 135.8 billion.
AUD/USD pays no heed to China data release.
China imported 100 million tonnes of iron ore in January, compared to 84.3 million tonnes in December, customs data show. Arrivals were 94.54 million tonnes in November.

However, the Aussie dollar is not impressed. As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7825 – levels seen before the release of China trade data. Iron ore along with copper is one of Australia’s top exports.

A drop in China’s overall trade surplus could be keeping the AUD bulls at bay. Also worth noting is the slight decline in China’s copper imports. The world’s largest consumer of commodities imported 440,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in January, compared to 450,000 tonnes in December.

Looking ahead – the pair could be influenced by the action in the AU-US 10-year bond yield spread. The Aussie dollar could drop below 0.78 if the spread turns negative inversion) and equities see sharp losses.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-not-impressed-rise-chinas-iron-ore-imports/

GBP/USD POISED TO CONTINUE BULL-RUN AFTER DECLINING INTO LONG-TERM SUPPORT

GBP/USD may be poised to continue pushing higher following a couple of weeks of declines. Sterling is currently trading up softly on thin markets to kick off the new weeks, treading into the 1.3840 region ahead of European markets.

Sterling has suffered at the hands of market sentiment as of late, with pullbacks in equities and spikes in bond yields to multi-year highs sending traders head-first into safe havens at the expense of risk assets such as the British Pound.

Despite recent selling pressure on the Queen’s currency, fundamentals are beginning to look good for the UK, with Prime Minister Theresa May experiencing a bump in polling along with Brexit fears seeming to tame somewhat, even as the British Parliament and leaders within the EU continue to trade barbs back and forth. The Bank of England (BoE) is also upbeat, with a positive outlook on the UK’s economy as economic growth begins to build on itself, causing the BoE to begin hinting at interest rates in the near future.

The Kingdom has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-poised-continue-bull-run-declining-long-term-support-2/

USD/JPY DROPS IN TANDEM WITH NIKKEI, WEAKEST SINCE NOV 2016

Tracks Nikkei 225, DXY lower.
Profit-taking ahead of the US CPI?
The bears regained control after a brief recovery seen in the USD/JPY pair, now pushing the rates southwards in a bid to print the lowest levels since November 2016.

USD/JPY headed to 107.00

The spot is seen replicating the moves witnessed in Asia a day before, as risk-aversion seeps back into markets, with the Asian equities crumbling again alongside oil prices. Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei 225 sinks nearly 0.90% to 21,053 points while Treasury yields dive across the curve, in turn adding to the downslide.

The major also faces a double whammy from broad-based US dollar weakness, as the buck tracks Treasury yields lower amid a sense of caution ahead of the key US CPI figures, which are likely to shape up the Fed’s rate hike outlook this year.

Meanwhile, the JPY markets appear to have shrugged off the disappointment in the details of the Japanese Q4 GDP report, which showed that the preliminary Q4 GDP arrived at 0.1% q/q vs. 0.2% expected.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-drops-tandem-nikkei-weakest-since-nov-2016/