Date : 9th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook:  Asian stock markets moved broadly higher overnight. The Hang Seng headed for an 11th straight gain, led by property developers and energy producers and moving closer to the record levels, Japanese indices were underpinned by electronics makers and chemicals, despite a stronger Yen, with the Nikkei closing up 0.57%. FTSE 100 futures are also up, but U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, as Treasury yields rise in tandem with most long yields in Asia. Only China’s 20-year declined again, while Japan’s 10-year gained 1.1 bp and the 10-year Treasury 0.6 bp. European yields headed broadly south yesterday, despite gains on stock markets, but global movements suggest a corrections in bonds. The data calendar today has German trade and production numbers at the start of the session, as well as French trade and Eurozone jobless numbers.

German Nov industrial production jumped 3.4% m/m in November, a much stronger than expected rebound after two months of decline that left the annual rate at 5.6% y/y, up from 2.8% y/y in October and highlighting the strength of the manufacturing sectors in particular. Manufacturing orders may have disappointed in November, but the underlying trend remains strong, while surveys point to ongoing optimism about the outlook that is underpinning job creation and will likely feed into wage deals. German trade surplus widens as exports jump.Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.4 bln in November, up from 19.9 bln in the previous month, as exports rose 4.1% m/m, outpacing the 2.3% m/m rise in imports. The three months trend improved further indicating that net exports underpinned overall growth in the last quarter of 2017, although accumulated data for the first 11 months of 2017 show that surpluses in both current account and trade actually declined slightly compared to the corresponding period 2016, highlighting that for once this was not an export led German recovery, but rather than improving global growth is also benefiting German exports, while the strong EUR is helping to keep the import bill down.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly lower, yields are coming down after the sharp move higher in recent days and 10-year JGBs shed -1.1 bp while Treasury yields are down 2.0 bp at 2.537%. Global equity indices have reached levels that raised concerns of overheating, while a number of bond auctions added to the uptick in yields yesterday. But while Germany under-subscribed 10-year auction yesterday spooked investors, strong demand in the USD 20 bln 10-year Treasury auction helped to calm nerves and saw yields heading sound again. Losses on Asian stock markets meanwhile were modes. The Nikkei closed down -0.33%, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed and UK100 futures are moving higher and with the EUR holding below 1.20 against the Dollar, the GER30 may be able to recover somewhat after under-performing yesterday, as full year 2017 GDP estimates are likely to show very strong growth, while Bund futures are likely to open higher.

FX Update: The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday’s Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that the Bloomberg report was based on “false” information. The remark saw the yield on the 10-year T-note tick lower while giving the dollar a lift. The narrow trade-weighted USD index recovered to within a few pips of 92.47 after seeing a low of 91.92 yesterday. EUR-USD has ebbed back under 1.1950 after yesterday foraying above 1.2000 in the wake of the Bloomberg story. Market participants will now return focus on incoming fundamental leads while continuing to digest this week’s BoJ tapering of its QE program.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Canadian NHPI –  November new home price index expected at 0.2%m/m from 0.1% m/m.

US PPI & Unemployment claims –  Headline PPI may dip 0.2%  in December vs 0.4%, while core is expected at 0.2% vs 0.3%. Initial jobless claims are projected to drop 5k to 245k  for the January 5 week.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

Wall Street soared to record highs again last Friday and outperformed most global indices. The bullish impacts of U.S. tax reform and deregulation have manifested in signs of stronger growth and have led to expectations for improved earnings. The momentum has helped boost European and Asian shares as well.

United States: U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday. The hefty rally on Wall Street has helped lead global markets higher so far in 2018. While there’s plenty of unease to go around at these lofty levels, the underlying optimism suggested by earnings expectations, the bullish momentum, and the forecasts for sustained economic growth ahead suggest the rally can be extended. Earnings should be the guiding force in the markets this week, with some impact from economic data. The spending bill will be monitored ahead of a partial government shutdown on Friday as the spending bill runs out. Deal making could get contentious, particularly after President Trump remains at odds with the Democrats on “Wall” funding, while the kerfuffle over the President’s language last week add to the divisive environment.

This week, Manufacturing and production data headline the economic calendar. The January Empire State manufacturing index (Tuesday) should rise 1 point to 19 after falling 1.4 points to 18.0 in December. Industrial production for December (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.4% after the 0.2% November gain, to bring capacity utilization up to 77.2% from 77.1%. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should fall to 25.0 in January from the upwardly revised 27.9 in December. The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index is due Wednesday. Housing starts (Thursday) should fall to a 1.275 mln pace in December after November’s 3.3% surge to 1.297 mln. Preliminary January consumer sentiment (Friday) is expected to rise to 97.0 after the index slid 0.8 points to 95.9 in December, supported by the bull run in equities and the passage of the tax bill.

Canada: The BoC is in the spotlight this week, with Wednesday’s announcement expected to reveal a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike to 1.25%. The Monetary Policy Report, also due Wednesday, should reveal a still cautiously upbeat growth outlook that is consistent with a gradual normalization path. The data slate is thin, leaving the focus firmly on the Bank of Canada: December existing home sales are expected Monday, while November manufacturing is due Friday. The manufacturing shipment values expected to rise 1.0% m/m after the 0.4% dip in October.

Europe: After Draghi failed to deliver the expected tweak in the forward guidance in December, the minutes from the meeting reminded investors that “postponed” is not “canceled” and that the ECB is still on the way to phase out net asset purchases after the end of the current program in September. However, gradualism remains the order of the day and this week’s data releases could help the markets settle down further, with final HICP readings for the Eurozone coming with a slight risk to the downside after downward revisions to Spanish and French readings. ECB speakers include Weidmann and Nowotny and are likely to come in on the hawkish side, however, so a balanced picture. Meanwhile political risks seem to be receding somewhat with Germany finally heading for a functioning government after Merkel reached a preliminary agreement with the Social Democrats in the exploratory talks for a rerun of the grand coalition, although the SPD’s party conference still has to clear the talks.

The European calendar focuses on the remaining final inflation numbers for December. We are looking for German HICP (Tuesday) to be confirmed at 1.6% y/y and the Italian HICP (Tuesday) at 1.0%, which should leave the overall Eurozone CPI reading at 1.4% y/y unchanged from the preliminary number and down from November. European calendar has also has November PPI data for November, seen falling back to 2.3% y/y, from 2.5% y/y. The Eurozone schedule includes November trade as well as current account data and supply also continues to flood in with Spain and France auctioning bonds on Thursday and Germany selling 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.

UK: The week ahead brings some key data releases, highlighted by December inflation and retail sales data. Brexit-related developments of significance have been in short supply so far in the new year, but are likely to pick up. Talks between the UK and EU on a transition deal are due to start presently, although negotiations on a future trading relationship with the EU are not due to begin until March. As for this week’s data calendar, UK CPI for December (Tuesday) expected to have a moderation to 3.0% y/y after November’s 3.1% y/y clip, an outcome which would square with BoE projections. December retail sales are also due (Friday), where a decline is expected of 0.8% m/m, which would correct some of the 1.1% m/m gain that was seen in November. Overall, data in-line with expectations shouldn’t cast much bearing on sterling markets.

Japan:December PPI (Tuesday) is penciled in at a 3.1% y/y pace, slightly slower than the 3.5% previously. The November tertiary index (Tuesday) is forecast rising 0.5% from the prior 0.3% bounce after slipping slightly in August (-0.1%) and September (-0.2%). November core machine orders (Wednesday) should fall 2.0% m/m from the 5.0% increase in October. The index has bounced around on a monthly basis but posted a 3.9% 3-month change in October, and is up 2.3% y/y. However, there’s risk of a deeper slide in November given the firmer yen. Revised November industrial production is due Thursday. Production posted a 0.6% gain initially, for a second straight monthly gain (0.5% in October).

China: December industrial production (Thursday) is forecast to rise 6.1% y/y, unchanged from November. December retail sales are anticipated to have risen 10.3% y/y from 10.2%, while December fixed investment is seen up 7.0% y/y from 7.2%.

Australia: Housing investment (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.0% in November after the 0.6% dip in October. Employment (Friday) is expected to expand 25.0k in December after the 61.6k bounce in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.4%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s has another clean slate this week. Indeed, the Bank’s event schedule is empty until the policy meeting on February 6, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate,is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets declined in Asia overnight in the wake of a correction on Wall Street Tuesday after the dollar recovered. The Nikkei closed down -0.35% the Hand Seng is down -0.16%. FTSE 100 futures are also in the red, but U.S. futures are slightly higher. 10-year yields picked up in the U.S. and Japan. Stock indices remain at high levels but recent advances have triggered warnings of overheating as focus turns to the earnings season and central banks. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone HICP inflation, which is expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y and core at 0.9% y/y, adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB who are still reluctant to confirm to a final end date for QE just yet.

FX Update: EURUSD bottomed at 1.2196 early in the N.Y. session  yesterday, before making its way to 1.2248 highs into the London close. The euro dropped sharply on political concerns in Germany, with some SPD factions reportedly uncertain, or in outright rejection, of proposals to form a grand coalition. This rattled EURUSD and euro crosses, which had been aggressively bid up in recent sessions. Potential for further fallout in Germany may keep euro bulls sidelined for the time being. Meanwhile, ECB speeches also put some pressure on the Euro. ECB hawk Weidmann suggests rate hike won’t come before 2019. The Bundesbank President once again stressed his preference to end net asset purchases this year, but at the same time repeated his effort to play down the risk of a rate hike already this year, which flared up after the release of the minutes. ECB Vice President Constancio eyes sudden movements in EUR. At the same time he, in line with other council members, tried to play down the implications of the minutes from the last meeting saying that even if the council sees the need for a gradual adjustment in the forward guidance “if the economy continues to grow and inflation continues to move” towards target, “this does not mean that changes will be immediate”. Constancio stressed that the ECB is not changing the path of its monetary policy, and that monetary policy will remain very accommodative for a long time.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone CPI – is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.4%y/y, while core is set to fall 0.9%y/y vs 1.1%y/y .

US Industrial Production – expected to rise 0.4% after the 0.2% November gain, to bring capacity utilization up to 77.2% from 77.1%

BoC Monetary Policy Report – A 25 bp hike to 1.25% is expected today. The Monetary Policy Report, should reveal a still cautiously upbeat growth outlook that is consistent with a gradual normalization path. Labour market slack and uncertainty kept the Bank of Canada (BoC) from implementing further rate hikes in October and December of last year. But recent economic reports suggest labour market slack has seen significant unwinding. Of course, uncertainties remain elevated, notably on the outlook for NAFTA.

FOMC Member Kaplan and Mester Speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher led by industrial and tech stocks and the Treasury yields climbed as investors nervously eye the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, as the federal spending authority is set to expire today, which weighed on the dollar. The Yen advanced, but the Nikkei still managed a 0.19% gain and the CSI 300 is up 0.50%. FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher, U.S. futures marginally in the red. Core EGB yields climbed with Treasury yields yesterday, but peripherals outperformed and Eurozone spreads narrowed amid signs that the ECB remains very cautious in its approach to changes in the guidance, even as hawks slowly gain the upper hand. Today’s calendar has U.K. retail sales and Eurozone current account and BoP data after PPI numbers at the start of the session.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer on U.S. political concerns, though has remained above recent trend lows versus the yen, euro and most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is down 0.2%, making a low at 90.33 and swinging the 37-month low of Wednesday at 90.14 back into scope. The House of Reps passed the stopgap funding bill yesterday, and the vote now goes to the Senate, which has delayed its vote until later today and where there remains significant opposition to the bill. Republicans have been making amendments to the bill in an attempt to entice Democrat votes, but Democrats signalled that they have enough Senate opposition to stop the bill, which does not give sufficient concessions to them on immigration, government spending and other issues. According to the Washington Post, 39 Democrat and at least two GOP Senate members are known to be in opposition, leaving the bill short of the 60 votes needed to advance. This will be the dominant focus for markets today for market participants. Should the vote fail, government agencies will start shutting down from tomorrow — a scenario that would likely spark heavy dollar selling.

Main Macro Events Today

US Partial Government Shutdown

Swiss Product and Import Prices  –  should fall to a 0.4% in December after November’s 0.6%.

US Retail Sales  – December retail sales expected to show a decline of 0.8% m/m (median -0.6% m/m), which would correct some of the 1.1% m/m gain that was seen in November.

Canadian Manufacturing Sales – manufacturing shipment values expected to rise 1.9% m/m after the 0.4% dip in October.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – expected to rise to 97.0 after the index slid 0.8 points to 95.9 in December, supported by the bull run in equities and the passage of the tax bill.

FOMC Member Quarles Speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields quickly started to head south in early trade, amid a wider correction in 10-year yields across the U.S. Japan, China, Australia. The 10 year Bund yield is now down -0.2 bp at 0.561%, despite gains in European and U.S. stock futures, after equities rallied in Asia, on news that the U.S. government shutdown is ended and amid optimism about corporate earnings. The BoJ left policy unchanged, but sounded cautiously optimistic on inflation. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index reached headed for fresh record highs, despite warnings of overheating as the IMF’s economic outlook confirmed that growth is already starting to slow down from high levels. Today’s local calendar has German ZEW investor confidence as well as U.K. public finance data and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey. Preliminary eurozone consumer confidence will be published in the afternoon.

FX Update: BoJ’s Kuroda sounded dovish at his post-meeting press conference. He said that the central bank will remain strongly committed to monetary easing, including QQE, until the 2% inflation target has been reached, which remains “far” from the case. He said that the BoJ remains committed to yield curve control and, downplaying the January-9 announcement of a trimming in long-dated JGB purchases, said that day-to-day operations are not an indication of future monetary policy. The yen declined by about 30 pips versus the dollar, and traded lower versus other currencies, in the wake of Kuroda’s remarks. Meanwhile, EURUSD bottomed at 1.2225 as news reports indicated there were enough Senate votes to pass spending legislation, ending the government shutdown.  Senate has advanced a temporary spending bill in an 81-18 vote. This will refund the government thrugh February 8. The Senate still needs to vote on final passage of the CR, and then send it back to the House for its OK, which will be passed, according to leadership.

Main Macro Events Today

WEF Annual Meetings

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing   –  should fall to £4.400B in December after November’s £8.118B.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment –  expected to stabilise at 18.0 after falling to 17.4 in December underpinned by confidence in the global economy.

EU Consumer Confidence – preliminary Confidence expected to rise at 0.6 for January than 0.5 seen last month.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, led by Japan with the Nikkei losing -1.13%, as the dollar was further pressured by U.S. rhetoric on USD and trade. U.S. stock futures are down in tandem with FTSE 100 futures as the focus turns to the ECB meeting today as a strong data round so far this week has rekindled concerns of a major shift in guidance. The strong PMI readings out of the Eurozone and the rise in U.K. employment numbers coupled with a stronger pound saw U.K. bond markets underperforming yesterday and yields surging higher led by Gilts, while the FTSE 100 underperformed amid a wider dip in equities. With the pound remaining strong and the ECB meeting hanging over markets we are unlikely to see a major correction during the AM session and ahead of key surveys in the form of the German Ifo and the U.K. Distributive trade survey. Meanwhile we expect Draghi to continue to move cautiously, although that the ECB is heading for an exit from QE this year is pretty clear.

FX Update: USDJPY is down for a third straight day, this time logging a four-month low of 108.73. Broader dollar declines has once again been driving, with the buck making fresh lows versus a range of other currencies. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been trading comparatively steadily. Stock markets in Asia have come off the boil amid concerns about Trump’s protectionist bent, and after his Treasury Secretary’s verbal embracement, yesterday, of the weakening dollar trend, which many are calling the “Mnuchin Moment”. The dollar, which is down for a fifth consecutive quarter, which is the most protracted decline since 2007-8, is posting its biggest monthly loss in over two years. There at signs that this is causing some consternation in Asia, with a Bloomberg report today citing South Korean policymaker has affirming that “excessive” movements in USD-KRW are being “monitored.”

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate Decision & Statement & Press Conference – 12:45 and 13:30 GMT – Asset purchasing is ending – but when and how is the Hawk/Dove Debate – how will Draghi play this with and appreciating EUR ?

German Ifo – Expectations – a slight dip in the reading to 117.0 from 117.2

Canadian Retails Sales – Expectations – Decrease to 0.7% from 1.5% last time

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th January 2017.

FX News Today

President Trump stressed “when the United States grows, so does the world,” in Friday’s WEF Davos speech. That sentiment was illustrated last week as the IMF revised its 2017 global growth forecast up to 3.7%, and to 3.9% for 2018 and 2019, citing in part the stimulative impact from the U.S. tax cuts. This year’s growth would be the fastest and broadest since 2011 when the world was recovering from the financial crisis. This week’s slate of events and data should further underpin the current theme of improved global growth.

United States: The U.S. has a very full slate of events and data as the first month of 2018 comes to an end. However, it’s not clear any will have significant impact on current market trends of rising stocks and yields, and a weaker dollar. The calendar includes an FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), President Trump’s State of the Union (Tuesday), the Treasury refunding announcement (Wednesday), and key data culminating with the January jobs report (Friday). Earnings will be announced all through the week (this is the heaviest week of the season).President Trump will deliver his first State of the Union on Tuesday. Reports are that most of his speech will cover domestic issues, and especially his trillion dollar infrastructure plans. A $716 bln request for defense spending was leaked last week, and later confirmed by the White House. Meanwhile, the government will quickly have to revisit the potential for another government shutdown as the current continuing resolution expires February 8. Additionally, the Treasury is quickly running out of borrowing authority, perhaps as soon as early March. With that threat overhanging, the debt managers will announce Q1 and Q2 financing projections (Monday) ahead of the February refunding (Wednesday).

The data calendar is loaded with many of the key reports for the month and will give early reads on various sectors of the economy at the start of 2018. As always, the nonfarm payroll release (Friday) will be the highlight. December personal income and consumption (Monday) will help fine tune GDP forecasts, though they will be a bit anti-climactic after the Q4 GDP report last Friday.The PCE price data will be crucial. It’s the figure the FOMC uses, and the headline index is likely to edge up 0.1%, though the core should increase 0.2%. The Q4 employment cost numbers will be an important update on wages and benefits.  Q4 productivity and unit labor costs (Thursday) will also be awaited. Also important is the manufacturing ISM report. U.S. manufacturing has seen a resurgence and has become quite robust globally.Along with those numbers, other releases this week include the January ADP report (Wednesday). Consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely increased to 125.0 from 122.1 thanks to passage of the tax legislation and the ongoing gains on Wall Street.

Canada: Canada’s calendar is one of the few lean ones this week. November GDP (Wednesday), the only top tier report, is expected to rise 0.3% (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in October. Retail, manufacturing, and wholesale shipment volumes improved in November, while the outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive. The industrial product price index, also due Wednesday, is projected to drop 0.5% in December (m/m, nsa) after the 1.4% gain in November, as gasoline prices declined, commodity prices eroded and the loonie strengthened. The MLI leading indicator for December and the January Markit Canada manufacturing PMI are due Thursday.

Europe: it’s a very busy week for the Eurozone calendar. But with data likely to give both doves and hawks something over which to argue, the numbers are unlikely to change the overall outlook for the ECB going forward.  This week’s data calendar has preliminary inflation stats for January, the final set of confidence data in the form of the ESI and preliminary Q4 GDP numbers. The Eurozone GDP growth (Tuesday) for Q4 expected to show a slight deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.6% q/q in Q3. Looking ahead confidence remains very strong and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator (Tuesday) is seen rising to 116.3 from 106.0, after preliminary consumer confidence jumped higher and composite PMI numbers also surprised on the upside.

UK: Fundamental and political positives have been combining to support what is the most positive investor sentiment toward the UK since the vote to leave the EU in 2016.On the economic front, the preliminary estimate of UK Q4 GDP beat expectations, which followed labour market data showing an unexpected 102k surge in UK employment. On the political front, there are also expectations for the EU and UK officials to agree on a post-Brexit transition period, most likely before the EU leaders’ summit in March. The UK calendar this week features December monthly lending data from the BoE (Wednesday), the January Gfk consumer confidence (Thursday), and the January Markit manufacturing and construction PMI surveys (Thursday and Friday, respectively).

Japan: December unemployment (Tuesday) is seen unchanged at 2.7%, while the job offers/seekers ration should nudge up to 1.57 from 1.56. December personal income and PCE are due Tuesday, with the latter expected up 1.0% y/y from 1.7% in November. December retail sales (Tuesday) should rise 2.4% y/y from 2.2% overall, and increase 0.5% from 1.4% for large retailers. Preliminary December industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 1.5% y/y from 0.5%, while January consumer confidence (Wednesday) should tick up to 46.0 from 45.7. December housing starts (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 0.2% from -0.4%. December construction orders are also due Wednesday. Thursday brings the January Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI, which is forecast to rise to 54.5 from 54.0.

China: releases the official CFLP January manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, which is expected to improve to51.7 from 51.6. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is see at 51.8 from 51.5.

Australia: Q4 CPI (Wednesday) is seen accelerating to a 0.8% pace (q/q, sa) from the 0.6% pace in Q3. The CPI is anticipated to pick-up to a 2.1% y/y pace in Q4 from 1.8% y/y in Q3. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. The Bank meets next week, and no change to the current 1.50% rate setting is anticipated. Import prices (Thursday) are expected to rebound 2.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 1.6% drop in Q3. Export prices (Thursday) are projected to rebound 3.0% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 3.0% drop in Q3.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets started to stabilise in Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are little changed, the ASX 200 closed with a gain of 0.25%, but Japanese markets remained under pressure as the yen rose against the dollar and Nikkei and Topix dropped -0.83% and -1.15% respectively. U.K. stock futures are also in the red amid dollar weakness, but U.S. futures are recovering after yesterday’s decline. Investors had been taking profit as the months draws to a close and warnings over the vulnerability of markets to major corrections are getting louder, while confidence in the global growth outlook and improvements in corporate profits are underpinning sentiment. 10-year yields declined in Asia and the 10-year Treasury yield is also down -1.1 bp but holds above 2.7% as the focus turns to the FOMC announcement. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading around the USD 64 per barrel mark, while industrial metals reversed losses. Released overnight, U.K. GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the European calendar has inflation data for Spain, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as German and Eurozone labour market data,

Australia’s CPI improved to a 1.9% y/y pace in Q4 (q/q, sa) from 1.8% in Q3. CPI grew 0.6% (m/m, sa) after an 0.6% gain in Q3. Both the annual and quarterly comparable gains slightly undershot projections. Growth in the annual core CPI measures was steady or faster: the trimmed mean CPI was 1.8% y/y in Q4 from 1.8% y/y in Q3. The weighted median CPI improved to 2.0% y/y in Q2 from 1.9% y/y in Q4. A gradual improvement is seen in the CPI, but growth rates remain either just below or at the bottom of the RBA’s 2.0% to 3.0% target band. The report is consistent with widespread expectations for the RBA to hold rates steady next week at 1.50%.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Unemployment – German jobless figure falling to -17K in January, leaving the seasonally adjusted jobless number unchanged at a very low 5.5% y/y, while the Eurozone jobless rate for December is seen falling back to 8.7% y/y.

Eurozone CPI-  is seen at 1.3% y/yfrom 1.4% y/y.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Private payrolls are projected to have risen 185k after the better than expected 250k climb in December.

Canadian GDP – November GDP is expected to rise 0.3% (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in October.

Crude Oil Inventories – expected at 0.1M barrels from 1.1M reported last week.

FOMC Statement & FED Rates – No changes are expected.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are climbing higher in opening trade, with the 10-year trading at 0.726%, up 1.1 bp on the day, after the 10-year Treasury yield nearly touched 2.8% yesterday in the wake of the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDPNow estimate. The BoJ tried to ease the pressure on bond markets by stepping in with fresh purchase offers, and Treasury yields are also slightly down from the highs seen late yesterday. In Europe meanwhile ECB’s Nowotny added fresh pressure with a renewed call for an end to asset purchases, which he said will also see long yields rising. 2-year Schatz yields are up 0.2 bp at -0.554%, the 5-year is up 0.4 bp at 0.097%, leaving the curve steeper. Peripheral 10-year bonds are underperforming, and DAX and CAC 40 futures are heading south, as long yields rise and the EUR is trading above 1.25 against the dollar. FTSE 100 futures meanwhile pared earlier gains and are moving sideways. U.S. futures are mostly down, after a mixed session in Asia, where the BoJ’s action didn’t prevent a correction in equity markets.

FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses continued to gain today, with the Japanese currency underperforming concomitantly with the BoJ ramping up JGB purchases under its yield curve control framework to keep the 10-year yield at 0%. USDJPY clocked a nine-day high of 109.82, and EURJPY stormed to a 30-month high of 137.24. The BoJ bought Y450 bln of 5- to 10-year JGBs today, offering to buy unlimited quantities of 10-year paper. Reuters cited a BoJ official confirming that the actions enable the BOJ to firmly adhere to its current policy, and that it took steps after “large increase” in yields. The “large increase” was apparently the 10-year JGB yield having nudged above 0.1%. Other factors driving the yen lower include the rekindling of the global stock market rally and higher dollar yield advantage in USDJPY, following the Fed’s upgraded growth and inflation forecasts this week. Elsewhere, the euro has been showing moderate outperformance, led by the strong gain in EUR-JPY. EURUSD logged a high at 1.2523 late yesterday, and today found demand on dips under 1.2500. Last week’s 38-month high at 1.2537 is back within spitting distance.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – are likely to fell slightly in January, down to 52.00 from 52.2 seen last month.

U.K. NFP & Unemployment rate – expected to increase by 180K from 148K,while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.1% in October.

US  UoM Consumer Sentiment –  The final January consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan likely improved to 95.0 compared to the 94.4 preliminary.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2017.

FX News Today

Asian Wrap : The sell off in stock markets deepened in Asia overnight, with Nikkei, Topix and Hang Seng loosing more than 4%, the ASX 200 more than 3%, the CSI nearly 3%. With this level of correction bond markets benefited from a flight to safety and yields declined markedly, after yesterday’s fresh move higher. With the global equity rout deepening, the question is will central bankers take note and with the change at the top of the Fed speculation that the sell off will halt the rise in rates is mounting. In Japan Kuroda told parliament that it would be inappropriate to raise the yield target even by a small margin. Meanwhile focus has shifted to plunge in a popular exchange traded fund, that was designed to bet against volatility and tanked in after hour trade.

FX Update: The dollar has held firm, and the yen firmer amid a persisting global risk aversion theme. Japan’s Nikkei closed with a 4.8% loss, and was showing intraday losses of over 6% at the lows, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia’s ASX 200 racked up losses of over 3%. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) logged a two-week high at 89.72 before settling around the 89.50 mark, which is still just over 1% from the low seen last Friday. USDJPY clocked an eight-day low at 108.50 as Asia as the yen continued to find safe haven bids as global stock markets continued to head south. Driving risk aversion is spiking sovereign yields and the concomitant rise inflation expectations and prospects for the Fed to lead key central banks to take away monetary policy stimulus. Expectations are for  USDJPY to grind lower over the coming days and weeks, though see risk of there being greater magnitude of declines in AUDJPY, which tends to correlate strongly with global stock market direction. Today’s strongest currency  is the NZD ahead of tomorrows rate decision.

German Factory Orders: German manufacturing orders jumped 3.8% m/m in December, much more than anticipated and with November revised up to -0.1% m/m from -0.4% m/m reported initially. An exceptionally strong number that points to ongoing strong growth in manufacturing. The statistical office reported that the main impulses came from export orders and here mainly orders from other Eurozone countries, which jumped sharply higher at the end of the year.

Main Macro Events Today

US Trade Balance – a further fall to $-52.0 bln from $-50.5bln for the December number

CAD Ivey PMI – Expected to rise from 60.4 to 61.0

NZD Jobs Data  –  Q4 Employment Change (No Change expected  -0.2%) , Unemployment (No Change expected 4.6%)  and Participation Rate (a fall to 70.8% from 71.1%)

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th February 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th February 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with the CSI 300 underperforming once again and heading south, while the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.13%, the ASX 200 moved up a further 0.24% and the Hang Seng 0.58% as of 6:35GMT. The yuan dropped after trade figures missed estimates and amid speculation that policy makers will move to rein in gains. Overnight, RBNZ held steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. Governor Spencer remained dovish, saying “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly. NZDUSD has fallen to 0.7209 from 0.7258 ahead of the Bank’s announcement. Meanwhile today,German trade surplus narrowed as export growth slowed. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 21.5 bln in December, down from EUR 22.3 bln in the previous month. Exports rose just 0.3% m/m, after jumping 4.1% m/m in December, while import growth slowed to 1.4% m/m from 2.2% m/m. The December number left the total for Q4 at EUR 63.7 bln, up from EUR 62.4 bln in the third quarter of the year, which points to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the last quarter, even if this is nominal data, impacted by exchange rate developments.

FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold, albeit a fragile looking one. USDJPY logged a peak at 109.78, extending the rebound from Monday’s low at 108.45. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been seeing a similar price action, including AUDJPY. Japanese data showed the current account data for December at a surplus of Y797.2 bln, down from Y1,347.3 bln in the month prior. BoJ Suzuki said that there is no need for further monetary easing, contrasting in tone to Governor Kuroda, who earlier in the week said that there is no need to think about taking monetary stimulus away with inflation remaining below 1% and well off the BoJ’s 2% target. China January trade data came in much stronger than expected, though a near 40% export survey drove a sharp narrowing in the surplus, prompting the PBoC to guid the CNY lower today after the currency hit a two-year high yesterday. EURUSD lifted back toward 1.2300, reversing some of the losses seen yesterday after ECB’s Nowotny accused the U.S. Treasury of talking the dollar down.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe Speech

BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting & Inflation Report – The BoE is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.5% and QE totals unchanged, the meeting is likely to mark a sea change in approach after BoE Governor Carney last week forewarned that the central bank is beginning to turn its focus to a more conventional stance of limiting inflation. The inflation report is likely see the BoE upgrade its growth assessment, particularly the scope for self-sustaining private sector growth while highlighting a tightening labour market and rising wages.

Canadian Housing Starts –  projected to slow further to a 210.0k unit pace in January from 217.0k in December.

US Unemployment Claims – expected to rise to 232k from 230k in the week-ended January 27.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.