Date : 22nd November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook:  Asian stock markets mostly moved higher after new highs on Wall Street ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays. Optimism over global growth continues to propel indices higher although the CSI 300 retreated slightly after yesterday’s gains, as yields spiked in China, while coming down in Japan, Australia, New Zealand. UK100 and U.S. stock futures are also higher, as are oil prices, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 57.68 per barrel. The European data calendar is pretty empty, with only preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence in the afternoon. Events include a German 10-year Bund auction and the U.K. budget, while in Germany Merkel’s search for a way out of the stalemate continues.

U.S. equities are back at record highs after their opening lunge higher, propped up by a solid run higher in China on hopes regulators there will managed their shadow banking problems (Hang Seng rallied 1.9%) and hopes that Germany’s Merkel will extricate herself to form a coalition government without calling for new elections (German GER30+0.8%). That spilled over to a pre-Thanksgiving binge on Wall Street, paced by a 1% rally on NASDAQ and followed by 0.6-0.7% gains on the blue chip indices. Speaking of tech, Apple +2%, 3M +1.5% and Microsoft +1.3% are the Dow’s leaders on the upside, while Wal-Mart -0.7% is the deepest decliner. The VIX equity volatility index is 6.7% lower and back under 10.0, well off the 14.51 November high set amid tax cut plan divergence between the House and Senate. That fear now appears to be on the back-burner, though some heavy lifting remains to reconcile the two tax bill versions and sell the unified plan to the public before year-end. Meanwhile, the USDIndex remains around 94.0, while gold rebounded back over $1,283 and WTI crude has consolidated 1.5% higher near $57.92 bbl.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Autumn Forecast Statement – Released yearly
.
US Durable Goods –  Expectations – rise 0.3% vs 2.0% in September due to the hurricane rebound, or 0.4% ex-transportation.

US Jobless Claims  & UoM Sentiment- Expectations – revised their decline by 15k to 234k for the week ended November 18, while final Michigan sentiment may be nudged to 98.0 in November  from a preliminary 97.8, down from 100.7 in October.

Oil Inventories – Expectations – decrease by 1.4 mln barrels.

FOMC Meeting Minutes –

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: : Asian stock markets moved slightly higher in quiet trade. The rout on Chinese bond and stock markets that dominated Thursday’s session faded and the Nikkei managed a 0.12% gain as the yen weakened. Chinese bond markets declined somewhat, Treasury yields climbed higher, underpinning the USD. With most U.S. investors out for the Thanksgiving holiday and markets closed Thursday, trading in Asia remained lacklustre even as Japan reopened. European and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher, oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 58.47. In Europe, the calendar still holds German Ifo investor sentiment, which could come in higher than expected after the surprisingly strong PMI readings yesterday. There seems to be come movement in Germany’s political stalemate with hopes that the SPD may take back its “no” to a coalition with Merkel’s CDU/CSU and ECB’s Couere said the deposit rate will stay at -0.4% for a long time.

Canada’s drop in retail sales volumes adds another hit the September GDP outlook. Retail sales volumes fell 0.6% m/m in September after an 0.5% decline in August and a 0.3% fall in July, contrasting with the gains from January to June. The BoC tagged a fading child tax credit boost as a key driver of the Q1 and Q2 consumption gains and subsequent drop off. There was a 1.1% tumble in wholesale shipment volumes. There was a 0.7% bounce in manufacturing shipment volumes. The contribution from construction production could be mildly negative, as housing starts fell 2.8% to a 219.3k pace in September from 225.6k in August. But the outlook for mining, oil and gas production is upbeat. Energy export values grew 7.2% m/m in September. The manufacturing report’s petro and coal shipments measure improved 10.3% m/m in September. But while we’ve seen some disappointing reports of late, the BoC has projected slowing in the second half after the robust first half. And the slowing, at this point, looks to be close to what they projected in October. BoC speakers have been clear that the economy, along with uncertainty over NAFTA, has led them to a cautious stance on further rate increases.

Main Macro Events Today

German IFO- Expectations – Business IFO falls by 0.1 to 116.6.

US Markit PMI –  Expectations –the November Prelim. Manufacturing PMI rising to 54.8 from 54.6 and the services reading to 55.5 from 55.3

ECB Vice President Constancio and ECB Coeure speech

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook:Asian stock markets headed south again, as declines and energy and mining stocks led shares lower amid a further drop in metal prices. Concern China’s regulators may limit the flow of funds into Hong Kong’s stock markets adding to pressure. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is suspending approval of mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% in Hong Kong listed shares, according to media reports. The Hang Seng declined -0.65%, the CSP 300 was down -0.22%, against minimal losses in Nikkei and ASX 200. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, as the U.S. tax debate gets underway. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 57.75. Today’s local calendar remains relatively quiet, but includes Eurozone M3 money supply, Canadian RMPI, US Housing Index,  trade, consumer confidence, RBNZ Stability Report and lot of  Fedspeeches.

German import price inflation fell back to 2.6% y/y in October, from 3.0% y/y in the pervious month. Like the deceleration in HICP inflation that month the drop was largely driven by lower energy prices and excluding energy the annual rate actually rose to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y. So a confirmation that energy prices continue to play a dominant role in headline developments, but also that underlying inflation pressures are slowly picking up again even on the import price front.

U.S. reports: revealed a surprising 6.2% October new home sales climb to a hurricane-boosted 685k rate that marked a 10-year high, following a trimming in September’s prior cycle-high to 645k from 667k. Home sales rose 1% in the south despite huge prior gains, though we saw larger 6%-30% October gains in the other three regions. A preponderance of upside surprises in the construction and factory-sensitive reports through early-2018 given disaster-related rebuilding activity, are still widely expected. The Dallas Fed index bucked this boost however, as well as a likely lift from rising oil prices, with a headline drop to a still-firm 19.4 from an 11-year high of 27.6 in October, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.6 from a 57.9 October cycle-high. A small November drop-backs has been seen in most producer sentiment levels, though still-robust levels suggest upside risk to 3.0% Q4 GDP estimate, after an assumed Q3 boost to 3.5% from 3.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence – Expectations – seen edging up to 124.0 from 125.9.

September Case-Shiller home price index and the September FHFA home price index

Canadian IPPI – Expectations –rise up to 0.5% in October (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September.

Fed’s Dudley and FOMC Member Powell and Harker Speech

BoC Financial System Review – Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speech at 16:30 GMT.

RBNZ Financial stability Report

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th November 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th November 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global sell off in tech stocks continued in Asia, Japanese markets managed to outperform, underpinned by financials and the Nikkei managed a gain of nearly 0.6%, but the Hang Seng dropped 1.5%, the CSI 300 1.3% and the ASX declined 0.69%, after the government announced an inquiry into banks. South Korean listed shares dropped after the central bank hiked interest rates. UK100 futures are heading south, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Data releases in Europe include Eurozone jobless numbers and most importantly preliminary Eurozone HICP readings for November.

Sterling continued has extended its ascent into a third day, with Cable punching out a fresh two-month high of 1.3480 and EURGBP plumbing a three-week low. Reports continue to point to a deal-in-the-works between the EU and the UK on the final financial settlement, and there is also raised hopes that an agreement will be made on the Irish border issue (and so avoid the spectre of a Dublin veto). Elsewhere, EURUSD has remained buoyant, although has thus far remained below yesterday’s peak at 1.1882. USDJPY rose for a third straight session, logging an 11-day peak of 111.24. This is the biggest rebound the pair has seen in four weeks, marking a break in the down phase that’s been in place since November (both breaking above and closing above trend resistance yesterday). Strong gains have also been seen in EURJPY, which is up nearly 1% over the last day, along with GBPJPY, which has surged by nearly 2% over the last two days. The yen, which is generally regarded as the safe haven currency of choice, has clearly not been in demand despite the haemorrhage in tech stocks over the last day, and concerns about North Korea’s ongoing development of ICBM capability.

Main Macro Events Today

EU CPI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October.

EU Unemployment Rate – Expectations –  Unchanged at 8.9% for October

US Unemployment Claims and PCE – Expectations – Unemployment Claims expected at 240K from 239K seen last week, while core PCE expected to rise to 0.2% m/m from 0.1%.

Last day of OPEC meeting

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th December 2017.

FX News Today

The collision of two opposing forces on Friday put the markets in a lather as the Senate tax cut bill garnered sufficient momentum to pass by the skin of McConnell’s teeth, but offset by news that former Trump advisor Flynn plans to plead out to lying to the FBI and indicate he was directed (by someone) to contact the Russians. According to several reports, that “someone” now appears to have been Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, who has meanwhile been invited back before the Senate Intelligence panel. At least in the short-term, this was a clear victory for volatility for a change, which was one of the main beneficiaries, contributing to large swings in stocks, yields and the dollar. It seems that December has begun with a bang and the last month of the year is certainly setting up to be an eventful one ahead of the holidays and before we close out 2017

United States: The U.S. economic calendar will feature a steady drumbeat of factory, trade, ISM services, ADP, productivity and credit data all setting the table for the main course on Friday — the jobs report. November non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 260k, with a 250k private payroll gain following the October 261k print. Factory goods orders are forecast (Monday) to rise 0.2% for October after a 1.5% gain in September. The trade deficit is expected (Tuesday) to widen to -$47.5 bln in October vs -$43.5 bln, while ISM Non-Manufacturing index is set to slip to a still-respectable 59.0 in November from 60.1. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday), along with the release of the private ADP employment survey. Q3 productivity is expected to increase 3.3% vs 3.0% in Q2 (Wednesday), allowing unit labor costs to slip 0.1% from 0.5%. Initial jobless claims may slip 2k to 236k for the December 2 week (Thursday). Rounding out the week after the payrolls report (Friday) will be preliminary Michigan sentiment and wholesale trade.

Canada: The BoC’s announcement (Wednesday) is the focus this week. No change is expected in the current 1.00% rate setting. Taking into consideration ongoing uncertainty over NAFTA and the Bank’s desire to gauge the impact of this year’s 50 bp in hikes and upcoming mortgage rule changes,  the next hike is anticipated in March at 25 basis point move.  Meanwhile, a busy data calendar is on tap this week. The October trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -C$2.6 bln from -C$3.2 bln in September. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to contract 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.1% dip in Q2, as hours worked growth remained firm but output growth slowed sharply. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September. Housing starts (Friday) are projected to slow to a 215.0k unit growth rate in November from the 222.8k growth clip in October. Capacity utilization (Friday) is on track to improve to 85.1% in Q3 from 85.0% in Q2.

Europe: Political events move to the forefront again, as U.K. Prime Minister May is set to meet EU’s Juncker and Barnier on Monday and Germany’s Social Democrats are inching closer towards formal coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel and her CDU/CSU alliance. SPD leader Schulz has a chance to put the issue to a vote at a party conference this week but as the last round of coalition talks showed, even the start of formal negotiations would not secure that there will be a deal at the end.  Data releases this week are expected to confirm the stronger than expected growth trajectory. The final reading of the November Eurozone Services PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 56.2, with companies reporting swift job creation, but also a buildup of inflationary pressures that will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB. German October manufacturing orders (Wednesday) may be expected to correct -0.2% m/m , after the rise of 1.0% m/m in the previous month, but the overall trend remains very strong. Meanwhile German industrial production should still benefit from the robust rise in orders in previous months and is expected to have expanded 1.0% m/m in October. The data calendar also includes German trade data, French production, Eurozone retail sales and producer price inflation. Supply comes from Germany, with a EUR 2 bln 10-year Bund auction scheduled for Wednesday.

UK: Monday’s meeting between British PM May and top EU officials will draw a lot of attention, as this is the juncture when an agreement on divorcing terms is now widely expected to be announced. The pound rallied by over 1% last week at the prompt of media reports suggest that both the UK and the EU have reached a concord with both the final financial settlement Britain will pay before leaving, to square exiting obligations, and the Irish border issue — the two thorniest issues of the three issues that comprise the overall divorcing arrangements (the other being the rights of EU and British citizens living in each other’s territory). Should this prove the case, talks on a post-Brexit trading relationship can begin, along with the possibility of a transitory period.

The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the construction and service-sector PMI November surveys (Monday and Tuesday, respectively). These will follow the much stronger than expected November PMI report for the manufacturing sector, released on Friday, which has offered fresh evidence of the impact that a competitive exchange rate and rising European demand have been having on the sector. Production and trade figures for October are also due on Friday.

Japan: In Japan,  November services PMI (Tuesday) is penciled in edging up to 53.5 from 53.4 previously. Revised Q3 GDP (Friday) is forecast to improve to a 1.6% y/y pace, from the initial 1.4% reading. Also, the October current account surplus is seen narrowing to JPY 1,700 bln from 2,271 bln in September. November bank loan figures are also on deck Friday.

China: China November Caixin/Markit services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 51.5 from 51.2, while the November trade report (Friday) should see the surplus narrow to $35.0 bln from $38.2 bln. November CPI and PPI (Saturday) should show some slowing in inflation and we estimate the former at a 1.7% y/y clip from 1.9%, and 5.9% y/y from 6.9% for the latter.

Australia: The RBA is seen holding rates steady at the current 1.50% rate setting (Tuesday). The Q3 current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$9.0 bln from -A$9.6 bln. Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to expand 0.3% m/m in October after the flat reading in September. GDP (Wednesday) is expected grow with a 0.5% gain (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.8% improvement in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is anticipated at A$1.9 bln in October from A$1.7 bln in September. Housing investment (Friday) is expected to rise 2.0% m/m in October after the 2.3% drop in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets tanked in Asia overnight, with Nikkei and Hang Seng both losing nearly 2% as technology, mining, consumer and industrial sectors came under pressure and a stronger Yen added to the sell off in Japanese stock markets, while the ASX outperformed with a -0.44% loss as the AUD weakened on disappointing GDP numbers. Australia GDP expanded 0.6% in Q3 (q/q, sa), mildly undershooting expectations but after an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in Q2 (was +0.8%). GDP climbed 2.8% y/y in Q3 after a revised 1.9% growth rate in Q2. AUDUSD fell to 0.7574 from 0.7613 just ahead of the report, as the undershoot of total GDP relative to projections combined with the sluggish household consumption growth pace squashed the mild jolt of rate hike optimism seen following modestly less dovish outing from the RBA. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and ongoing pressure on stock markets should keep EGBs supported and yields The calendar has the Eurozone retail PMI, with Brexit talks remaining a key focus ahead of next week’s EU summit.

German manufacturing orders unexpectedly rose 0.5% m/m in October. Expectations had been for a correction from the strong September number, but while the last figure was revised up to 1.2% m/m from 1.0% m/m, the October number showed a further improvement of 0.5% m/m (median -0.2%). This confirms firm survey data and expectations for another strong GDP growth rate in Q4. The German, but also the overall Eurozone industrial sector continues to fire on all cylinders with job creation accelerating, but price pressures also emerging now. Against that background Draghi could tweak the forward guidance next week somewhat to clarify that in the central scenario net asset purchases will end in September next year, even if the door to another follow on program remains theoretically open.

Main Macro Events Today

ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – increase to 185k for November vs 235k previously.

US Labor Costs (Q3)- Expectations – slip to 0.2% from 0.5%.

BoC Rate Statement  – Expectations –  no change is expected to the 1.00% rate setting in today’s announcement. Bank-speak since the September rate increase emphasised that the Bank is in an “intense data dependent mode” and will be cautious in the removal of further stimulus. Uncertainty remains elevated, notably around the (still) ongoing Nafta negotiations.

Oil Inventories – Expectations – a decline by 0.25M Barrels from last week -3.429M outcome.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets rallied after a positive close on wall Street. The trade surplus overshot expectations, and is bullish for China’s economy. China’s trade surplus improved to $40.2 bln in November from $38.1 bln in October, while Japan’s Q3 GDP grew 2.5% in the final reading, up from the preliminary 1.4% gain (q/q, saar). GDP grew 2.9% in the final report for Q2. Japan led the way as a weaker yen underpinned exporters, as the dollar gained amid reports that U.S. tax cuts are making progress in congress. With investors looking in profits at the end of a strong year for stocks there have been sizeable swings and forex markets remain a driver, with FTSE 100 futures in the red, as the Pound rallied on news of progress in Brexit negotiations that could see next week’s EU summit pave the way for early trade and transition talks. U.K. jobs data in the afternoon overshadows local data releases, which include French production, U.K. trade and the U.K. NIESR GDP estimate.

White smoke over Brussels as U.K. and EU strike deal on key Brexit issues that is hoped to unlock Phase 2 and talks on a transition period and future trade relationships at next week’s summit. After agreeing on the future role of the ECJ yesterday May managed to find a compromise on the Irish boarder, that kept the DUP happy but also satisfied the Republic of Ireland, with the latter confirming that it will now back talks moving into Phase 2. The Pound rallied on the news and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher now after initially dipping on the stronger Pound. EGB yields are moving up in early trade as safe haven flows are being reversed. Elsewhere in europe, German sa trade surplus narrowsed as imports surged. Germany’s sa trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.8 bln in October, from EWUR 21.9 bln in the previous month, as exports contract for a second consecutive month, while imports surged 1.8% m/m, after falling -1.1% m/m in September. The surge in imports may give a partial explanation and overall the prospects for exports and production remain good, despite the weak October numbers.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manuf. and Industrial Production – Expectations – Manufacturing Production to come at 0.1% m/m after 0.7% seen in September, and with 3.9% y/y growth from 2.7%.  Industrial production headline to come in at 0.0% m/m after 0.7% m/m growth in September, and with 3.5% y/y growth.

US NFP  – Expectations – at 200K from 261K seen last month

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, as this week’s central bank meetings come into focus and amid a lack of incentive for investors to push out indices beyond recent highs. U.S. markets still managed to move higher as investors shrugged off the explosion in New York, and while volumes were lacklustre U.S. but also U.K. stock futures are moving higher. The FTSE 100 already outperformed yesterday and ongoing pressure on the Pound is continuing to underpin market interest. Oil prices are higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 58.39 per barrel. The calendar, which started very slow yesterday, heats up today, with U.K. inflation numbers for November and the German ZEW investor confidence reading for December.

FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today as market participants sit on their hands ahead of key data from key economies this week, the first of which arrives later in the form of UK November inflation data and the latest German ZEW investor survey, along with a plethora of central bank policy decisions. EURUSD has settled near 1.1780, lacking direction after the rebound from Friday’s 1.1730 low stalled at levels above 1.1800. USDJPY has plied a narrow 14 pip range so far today, between 113.43 and 113.57, settling toward the lower part of this range, which roughly marks the midway point of yesterday’s range. Cable has settled to a narrow oscillation just above yesterday’s three-session low at 1.3330. The NZ dollar bucked the directionless trend, with the currency having rallied for a second successive session as markets continue to react to yesterday’s announced appointment of Adiran Orr as the new RBNZ governor. NZDUSD logged a two-week high at 0.6937.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI and PPI – Expectations – headline and core CPI readings to remain unchanged at 3.0% y/y and 2.7% y/y, respectively, though producer input and output costs expected to tick higher, to respective rates of 6.8% y/y, from 4.6% y/y in the month prior, and to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in October.

German ZEW Sentiment – Expectations – at 18k from 18.7K seen last month

US PPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%.

ECB President Draghi Speech at 19:00 GMT

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south overnight as the Fed hiked rates and maintained the rate outlook for next year, despite lifting growth projections. A surprise hike in short term interest rates by China’s central bank added to pressure. U.K. futures are also heading south as the focus switches to European central banks with ECB, BoE and SNB all seen on hold. The ECB in particular could sound more hawkish than at the last meeting as council members are increasingly divided over Draghi’s open ended QE policy amid signs of capacity constraints in the economy. Data releases include preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for December, U.K. retail sales, as well as final November inflation data for a number of Eurozone countries. EU heads of states will start to gather for the start of the summit that is hoped to finally pave the way for talks and trade and transition agreements with the U.K.

FOMC hiked 25 bps and left the dots at three tightenings in 2018. The rate increase from a 1.25% to 1.50% policy band was universally expected, and the three tightenings next year was largely anticipated too. There were two dissents, with Evans and Kashkari dissented and voted for no change in rates. The Fed’s statement said the labor market continued to strengthen while economic activity was seen rising at a solid rate. On inflation, the Fed said overall and core inflation on a 12-month basis had declined this year and are running below 2%, , which may have provided the weight on the dollar.The dollar fell after the as-expected 25 basis point Fed rate hike, then quickly headed above levels just prior to the announcement, before dipping again.

Main Macro Events Today

SNB Monetary Policy – Expectations – SNB expected to continue to highlight the need for negative rates and reiterate the line from its previous policy meeting that it “will remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.”

UK Retail Sales – Expectations –  0.4% m/m rise after a 0.3% m/m gain in the month prior

BoE Preview – The BoE’s two-day December MPC meeting concludes today. No change decisions on the repo rate, which would leave it at 0.50%, and QE totals (both gilts and corporate bond purchases) are widely expected, which we anticipate will be by unanimous votes at the nine-member committee.

EU Services PMI – Expectations –  a dip in the services reading to 56 from 56.2 and a decline in the manufacturing number to 59.8 from 60.1 in the previous month.

ECB Preview –  Data releases since the October meeting, when Draghi wrapped a reduction of net asset purchases form January onwards in a dovish guidance, have shown stronger than expected growth momentum that will likely see upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. Against that background calls for Draghi to finally commit to an end date for QE are getting louder as are warnings that the ECB’s policy may remain too accommodate as the output gaps closes faster than anticipated. Indeed, the event risk for today’s press conference is a more hawkish tone than markets expect, especially after yesterday’s Fed hike, as the move will give Draghi more room to manoeuvre without putting undue upward pressure on the EUR.

US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims – Expectations –  Headline Retail sales are projected to increase 0.3%  for November from 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen at 239k from 236K last week.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2017.

FX News Today

Global markets can benefit from some early Christmas presents as major political uncertainties seem to be resolving. The U.S. Congress is expected to pass the tax reform package and send it to President Trump before the weekend. Agreement between the EU and U.K. will move Brexit talks to the second stage. And, Germany’s SPD party agreed to exploratory talks on renewed cooperation with Chancellor Merkel. About the only hurdle could be Thursday’s elections in Catalonia. For bonds, the dovish policies from the ECB and BoJ, a less hawkish BoE, and still benign inflation, should keep a ceiling on rates. Trading will quiet into the weekend with early closes on Friday ahead of Christmas on Monday, with many markets still off Tuesday.

United States: As the year starts to wind down, attention will remain on the tax bill. After much wrangling, it appears a bill will be passed after several GOP Senators indicated they would vote yes on the compromise version. The House is slated to vote Tuesday, with the Senate likely on Wednesday to give ailing Senator McCain time to get to Washington. As for data, all of the crucial reports are out of the way. Housing reports headline the economic calendar, which also includes revised GDP, December manufacturing numbers, income/spending, and durable goods orders. But the reports won’t really alter current outlooks for solid economic gains and still low inflation. Also, several of the reports, especially housing and durables, will still be impacted by disaster whiplash.

Canada: In Canada, the data slate provides another round of figures for the Bank of Canada’s data driven approach to policy, which was back in the spotlight last week after the Governor said “caution” in not a code word for on hold.Hence the anticipation remains that they will hold steady in January, hike 25 basis points in March to 1.25% and implement two more moves later in 2018 to gradually lift the policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2018. The economic data this week will be scrutinised for clues that conditions will be/won’t be ripe for a rate hike at the January 17 announcement. Wholesale shipment values (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.5% in October after the 1.2% drop in September. October average weekly earnings, part of the establishment survey, are also due Wednesday. The CPI is expected to rise 0.2.% in November (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.5% in October after the weak 0.1% gain in September. October GDP has the privilege of being the last report released this year and expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.2% m/m pick-up in September.

Europe: Political events were relatively positive in Europe last week.  The elections in Catalonia on December 21 provide a last focus on the political arena this week, especially as polls suggest a head to head race between the parties in favour and those against independence from Spain. This week’s round of date releases include the German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday), which we expect to nudge higher to 107.5. The German economy is bursting at its seems and the Bundesbank just upped its growth forecast significantly at least for this year and warned to sizeable wage growth ahead. ECB’s Draghi meanwhile continues to see not insufficient progress on inflation and wages and indeed, November Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5%, up from the previous month, but far below the ECB’s objective. More importantly, the breakdown is expected to confirm that higher energy prices were the main driving factor behind the uptick in the headline rate in November and core inflation is still at just 0.9% y/y. So plenty for Draghi to argue with, although whether the central bank can risk seeing inflation running away in the largest economy remains to be seen. More importantly perhaps, while growth forecasts have been revised up, the growth profile in Germany and the Eurozone suggests a peak in annual rates this year, so the ECB will start to scale back support when growth is already slowing down. The calendar also has German producer (Wednesday) and import price inflation (Friday) for November, where energy prices are expected to lift headline rates. Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as consumer confidence readings for Germany and the Eurozone are also on the agenda, as are French consumer spending and national confidence indicators for Italy and France.

UK: Sterling markets, as others, will be winding down for the Christmas and New Year holiday period while still digesting the less hawkish than anticipated guidance the BoE delivered following its MPC meeting last week. The calendar this week kicks off with the December CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a modest decline in the headline total orders reading, to +15 from +17 of the November survey. The CBI also releases its December distributive sales report (Wednesday). The third and final release of Q3 GDP data is up (Friday), along Q3 current account data.

Japan: In Japan, the BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No changes are expected to rates or QE. Despite a much improved economy, inflation is subdued. Chief Kuroda is expected to remain patient for now. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected up 0.2% versus the 0.5% decline in September. .

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to its December meeting (Tuesday). Rates were held at 1.50%, as expected. The calendar contains no top tier data this week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed. Japanese markets managed to pick up as banks benefited from the sharp rise in Treasury yields yesterday. The U.S. tax vote failed to spark a firework on markets, but after the sharp uptick in long interest rates across major markets yesterday and in Asia overnight hopes of a recovering in earnings for financial stocks have been underpinning equities and U.S. stock futures are also up. UK100 futures meanwhile are in the red however. Treasury yields meanwhile dipped slightly from Tuesdays highs in overnight trade and Bund futures moved up from lows. Today’s calendar has seen German PPI inflation down two ticks at 0.1% as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey. Sweden’s Riksbank meanwhile is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at -0.50% today.

US Tax Bill: The US Senate has approved the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax system in more than three decades.The House of Representatives earlier approved the bill comfortably. Republicans have majorities in both houses of Congress. For final approval the legislation must go back to the House on today for a procedural issue. If it passes, as expected, it will be President Donald Trump’s first major legislative triumph. Critics say the package is a deficit-bloating giveaway to the super-rich.

U.S. Data Reports:  Revealed a solid November housing starts report that lifted already encouraging prospects for the Q4-Q1 housing sector, alongside a big unexpected drop in the Q3 current account deficit. For housing, November strength was skewed toward single family starts and activity in the disaster-riddled south and west, and the 3.3% headline starts rise included a solid 1.0% rise in starts under construction after upward revisions that lifted our Q4 real residential construction growth estimate to 10% from 9%, though we still expect a Q4 GDP growth rate of 2.5% after a Q3 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.3%. For the current account, the deficit fell in Q3 to just $100.6 bln from $124.4 (was $123.1) bln, thanks to a big rise in the surplus on primary income and a big drop in the secondary deficit, alongside an expected narrowing in the goods deficit and a slight widening in the service surplus.

Fedspeak: Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari repeated his warnings from Monday in the wake of the FOMC decision that there remains slack in the labour market and the Fed should not raise rates. He also noted in a Q&A session that local regulations are driving up the cost of housing and hurting affordable housing.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Carney Speech – The Governor is due to testify on the November Financial Stability Report (FSR) before the UK’s Treasury Select Committee. Scheduled to strt at 13:15 GMT.

New Zealand GDP – The December Quarter GDP figure is expected to show a decline form 0.8% in September down to 0.6%.  Data is reported at 21:45 GMT and is the first GDP posting since the new government was elected and the new head of the RBNZ was announced.

Charts of the Day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd December 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global equity rally continued in Asia overnight, after banks and energy companies underpinned gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Nikkei rose 0.16% after the cabinet approval of a budget plan that includes extra stimulus spending. The Hang Seng is up 0.34%, helped by developers. In Europe the FTSE 100 managed record highs yesterday and closed with a gain of more than 1%, but stock futures are suggesting a correction today. In the Eurozone the election victory of Catalonia’s Separatists weighed on the EUR and is likely to hit Spanish markets, after the outperformance of the IBEX yesterday. The ECB halts its bond buying from today for the quiet holiday period and trading is likely to wind down as the year end comes into view. Today the calendar holds French PPI, consumer spending and final Q3 GDP as well as the Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italian sentiment data and the final reading of U.K. Q3 GDP.

German GfK consumer confidence: Improved to 10.8 in the projected January reading. The breakdown for November, when confidence held steady at 10.7 showed an improvement in business cycle expectations, but more importantly income expectations, but despite this the willingness to buy declined slightly as the willingness to save turned less negative. Still overall a positive number that suggests consumption will continue to underpin overall growth, as the labour market continues to improve and wage growth picks up.

German import price inflation: Accelerated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month. the data were in line with our forecast, but a tad above Bloomberg consensus, as higher energy price inflation lifted the annual rate. Without oil prices would have risen just 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, so despite the uptick in the headline rate something for Draghi to argue with as underlying inflation remains modest, although in the three months trend rate the reading excluding energy turned positive for the first time since May.

U.S. Data Reports:  U.S. House passed a short-term, stop-gap spending bill by a vote of 231-188. The bill, which still must be approved by the Senate, would avert a government shutdown on Friday, and would fund the government through January 19. This bill would maintain he same spending levels currently mandated. It would also allow for $4.5 bln in emergency funding for missile defense, as well as money for various healthcare programs, including $2.85 bln for CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill also included a waiver for the automatic spending cuts that would kick in under PAYGO, and that would allow President Trump to sign the tax reform bill just passed. The revised U.S. Q3 GDP data imply a Q3 productivity growth trimming to 2.8% from 3.0%, after a Q2 rate of 1.5%, with output growth of a revised 3.9% (was 4.1%) in Q3 after a 3.9% Q2 pace. We expect Q3 hourly compensation growth of an unrevised 2.7% after a 0.3% rate in Q2. The mix should leave a flat (was -0.2%) Q3 unit labor cost figure after a 1.2% Q2 drop. We expect unrevised hours-worked growth of 1.1% in Q3 after a 2.4% Q2 clip. We expect personal income growth of 4.1% in Q4 as income is pushed into 2018 from 2017 in anticipation of tax cuts, as seen last year, following an unrevised 2.8% rate in Q3. Disposable income should grow at a 4.1% in Q4 after a 2.1% (was 2.0%) rate in Q3. The savings rate should fall to a cycle-low 2.9% in Q4 with a monthly cycle-low that we peg at 2.5% in December as bonuses are delayed to January, from 3.3% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q2, versus a prior cycle-low 3.6% in Q4 of last year. We saw a 3-year high of 6.2% back in Q2 of 2015.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable Goods – Expectations are for a significant increase in the headline figure to 2.0% from a revise -0.8% last time but the key core figure is expected to slip to 0.5% from 0.9% last time.  With CAD data also at 13:30 there could be interesting movements on the USDCAD pair again today like we saw yesterday following the  US GDP miss and strong Canadian data.

Canadian GDP – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2% (m/m, sa). Wholesale volumes were also good news for GDP, rebounding 1.2% in October after the 1.0% tumble in September. The growth in retail sales and wholesale shipment is a welcome contrast with the 1.5% plunge in October manufacturing shipment volumes. Housing starts grew 1.9% to a 222.8k unit pace in October from 218.7k in September, suggestive of a positive contribution from construction. The outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive: Energy exports rose 2.7% in October after a 3.6% gain in September and a 1.7% increase in August. The manufacturing report’s measure of petroleum and coal shipments rose 2.2% in October after a 9.7% gain in September. We expect GDP to improve to a 2.6% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from 1.7% in Q3, which would be right in line with the BoC’s 2.5% estimate from the October MPR.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.