Date : 4th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed overnight, with investors eying U.S. politics and jobs data. Hong Kong posted gains, after better than expected profits from Suzuki Motor Corp. While Commonwealth Bank of Australia weighed on the Asian index after accusations of a breach of money laundering laws. Oil prices are slightly down on the day and below the USD 49 per barrel mark. FTSE 100 futures are down, after the BoE induced rally yesterday, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. The BoE announcement, which saw a lower number of dissenters and downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts saw European yields heading south, led by a sharp drop in the Gilt, but the BoE maintained its tightening bias and warned that little more growth may be needed to prompt a rate hike. So not as dovish a message as headlines suggested and there could be a correction along the line. Deputy BOE Governor has reiterated the MPC’s position on the BBC this morning. Cable 1.3140, EURGBP 0.9040 (39 week highs).

German manufacturing orders stronger than expected: Orders rose 1.0% m/m, while May was revised up slightly to 1.1% m/m from 1.0% m/m. The annual rate jumped to 5.2% y/y from 3.9% y/y. Expectations had been for a more muted uptick and the stronger than expected number at Domestic capital goods orders, a gauge for future investment, rebounded strongly from a drop in May and were up 7.5% m/m. Overall domestic orders rose 5.1% m/m, after falling in the previous month, while foreign orders inflow remains volatile on a monthly basis and fell -2.0% m/m, after rising 2.2% m/m. With most of the decline due to a drop in orders from other Eurozone countries, the strong EUR is not to blame, however.

FX Update: The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges for the most part. EUR-USD held in the upper 1.18s, below the 31-month high logged midweek at 1.1910, and Cable settled in the mid 1.31s, consolidating the sharp losses seen yesterday in the wake of the BoE’s guidance yesterday, which largely kicked expectations for a 25 bp rate hike into 2018. USD-JPY’s downtrend re-asserted, with the pair logging a new six-week low at 109.84 during the Tokyo session, which by our data surpassed the low seen in late New York trade yesterday by 1 pip. Japanese data today included a big miss in June wages data, but, as is often the case, to little impact on the yen. AUD-USD remained buoyant, despite the RBA’s SMP noting that a further exchange rate appreciation would lower both economic growth and inflation, though Australian June retail sales beat expectations, rising 0.3% m/m. Market participants have been hunkered down ahead of today’s U.S. July payrolls release.

Main Macro Events Today               

US Employment –  July employment data should post a 185k (median 182k) headline following a 222k headline in June and 152k in May. There is still upside risk to the report from the strength in the mining and factory sectors that’s also shown up in firm producer sentiment figures during the first half of the year. The tight ADP number on Wednesday offers caution to the upside risk.

Canadian Employment  –  It is expected to rise 25k in July after the 45.2k gain in June. Canada employment has been on an uptrend since August of last year as the economy expands. Expectations are for an annual average weekly earnings growth to expand at a 1.3% y/y pace in July, matching the 1.3% growth rates in May and June. While that would again be above the multi-year low 0.7% pace in April, it would still leave a historically tame pace for compensation growth. The unemployment rate is expected at 6.5% in July, matching June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian equity markets pared some of their recent gains after Chinese export and import data fell short of expectations, and investors ponder the global growth and central bank outlook while taking profits. Mixed earnings reports meanwhile weighed on the TSE and a stronger Yen is adding to pressure. Oil prices are holding above USD 49 per barrel but seem to be trending lower again after briefly rising above USD 50 per barrel at the start of the month. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, pointing to a correction in the FTSE 100, which outperformed yesterday, as the DAX underperformed and closed in the red, while other European markets nudged higher. Eurozone spreads also narrowed. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales rose 0.9% y/y on a same store basis, down from 1.2% y/y in May, while Swiss sa unemployment remained steady at 3.2%.

German exports slump in June, but trade surplus improves. In line with the Chinese trade report, German export and import growth disappointed, with exports falling -2.8% m/m and imports -4.5% m/m. The sa trade surplus though improved to EUR 21.2 bln from EUR 20.3 bln, leaving the total for the second quarter at EUR 61.3 bln, up from EUR 59.9 bln in the second quarter of the year. Like yesterday’s production numbers then the data point to a robust Q2 GDP growth rate, with net exports underpinning the German recovery, which orders suggest remains on track in the third quarter, even if automaker’s woes and the strong EUR are seeing investors turning cautious on German stocks.

Fedspeak: Yesterday there was a relatively dovish view from the nonvoting president, Fed’s Bullard, who continues to twist between a hawkish and dovish outlook, largely on the winds of inflation. Fed’s Bullard believes current rates are about appropriate for the near term. But, he’s a bit worried about the still low inflation rate, as recent data have “surprised to the downside and call into question the idea that U.S. inflation is reliably returning toward target.”. Of importance, though is his disagreement with the Phillips Curve orthodoxy that suggests low unemployment contributes to higher inflation, saying there is little relationship. He expects the economy to grow at about a 2% rate, but noted the pick-up in global growth. Those factors, including improved European activity and the potential for a more hawkish ECB, have weighed on the dollar. He supports getting going on QT, meanwhile he concurs with the general FOMC sentiment that the balance sheet unwind will be very slow and there shouldn’t be any big market impact. Fed’s Kashkari gave a speech as well yesterday in South Dakota, where he said he hasn’t seen wages growing very quickly in a Q&A session. The economy is doing pretty well, he added while noting the largest U.S. banks are still too-big-to-fail.

U.S. reported: consumer credit at $12.4 bln in June following the $18.3 bln May increase (revised from $28.4 bln). Non-revolving credit increased $8.3 bln, continuing to lead the strength in consumer borrowing, after the $11.4 bln jump in May (revised from $11.0 bln). Revolving credit was up $4.1 bln versus the prior $6.9 bln gain (revised from $7.4 bln). Credit slowed a bit in Q2, rising $42.9 bln (4.5%), after the $447.1 bln (5.0%) Q1 increase.

Main Macro Events Today               

U.S. JOLTS & NFIB –  JOLTS and the NFIB small business optimism survey today, will be mulled. The JOLTS expected to stay nearly unchanged with just a small drop to 5.660 M from 5.666M in May. The NFIB Business Optimism Index expected to be unchanged as well at 103.6.

CAD Housing starts – July housing starts are expected to fall to 200.0k from the 213.2k annual pace in June.

RBA Assistant Gov. Kent – RBA Assistant Governor Kent is due to speak today at the Bloomberg Address in Sydney.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk aversion amid tensions between the U.S. and China continued to hang over markets during the Asian session. Still, losses in Japan and Australia were relatively modest, while Hong Kong stocks underperformed and are heading for the biggest lost since last year amid concerns about the tensions between the U.S, and North Korea. U.K. stock futures are actually slightly higher, while U.S. futures remain in the red. Investors remain nervous but Bund futures started to move down from highs during the PM session yesterday and yields are likely to have bottomed for now. Eurozone markets underperformed and spreads widened, which highlights that peripheral yields remain vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion. Overnight, RNBZ left the official cash rate unchanged, while announced that inflation remains subdued.  Today’s calendar has production and trade data from the U.K. as well as production data from France and trade data from Italy. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance fell back to 1% from 7%, further adding to signs that the housing market is slowing down.

U.S. reports: revealed a solid round of June wholesale trade figures after big upward May revisions that lifted prospects for GDP, alongside a slightly stronger than expected 0.9% Q2 productivity rise after revisions that paralleled the annual revisions in the GDP and income reports. Now it is expected a Q2 GDP growth trimming to 2.4% from 2.6%, with a $7 bln boost in wholesale inventories but downward revisions of $3 bln for factory inventories and $9 bln for construction. The Q3 GDP growth still expected at 3.3%, with a $26 bln inventory addition. Yet, even with today’s firm inventory gains, inventories have yet to recover from the big 2015-2016 petro-hit, and wholesale petroleum inventories fell by a hefty 5.2% in June despite a 1.9% sales rise.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Bullard said there’s risk the FOMC could be too aggressive on rates, in comments on Bloomberg radio yesterday. The Fed doesn’t need to be preemptive on rates due to weak inflation trends. Rates can be left on hold for now as data are evaluated. The drop-in inflation has surprised policymakers. The G-7 is in a low growth, low inflation regime. And he’s not too optimistic that price pressure will pick up this year. These aren’t surprising comments from Bullard, who has turned more circumspect on rate hikes, still looks for QT to begin this year, but with a slow, incremental start. Chicago Fed dove Evans on the other hand, sees balance sheet reduction in September as quite a reasonable juncture to start, while a December rate hike is possible, though dependent on inflation. He argues that the Fed “should be very careful” in assessing future hikes, since he wants more evidence that inflation is heading to 2% sooner than later. Evans sees current policy as accommodative, while the economy is doing well and likely to average 2.25-2.50% growth the next few years, which is how long it will take to unwind the balance sheet. He believes there’s reasonable chance inflation could reach 2% in the next few years and he doesn’t see major risks of financial instability, at least certainly not due to Fed policy.

Main Macro Events Today               

UK Production – Production data for June are up today, where expected at a 0.1% m/m contraction but 0.1% y/y expansion.

U.S. PPI – July PPI is out today and should post a 0.1% headline with the core up 0.2% for the month. This follows June data which had both the headline and core up 0.1% on the month. After a series of declines through the spring, oil prices climbed in July which could help to lift the headline.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of August 5 should tick down to 239k (median 240k) from 240k last week and 245k in the week before that. Initial claims look poised to settle at a 242k average in July that about matches the 243k average from June.

RBA Gov. Lowe – Governor Wheeler holds today his usual press conference after the announcement of inflation rates last night.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2017.

FX News Today

Geopolitical tensions reared up last week and eclipsed key fundamental data points. The escalating war of words between the U.S. and North Korea resulted in a textbook flight to safety into bonds, and also provided an excuse to take profits on equities, especially after the Dow posted nine straight record highs.

United States: Data in recent weeks continued to reflect the surprising dichotomy of stronger economic growth and slower inflation. Those dynamics have frustrated FOMC officials who have become increasing eager to normalize policy. Retail sales for July (Tuesday) will highlight the calendar. Headline sales are projected rebounding 0.4% after dipping 0.2% in June and 0.1% in May, while the ex-auto component should rise 0.3% versus the prior declines of 0.2% and 0.3% in June and May, respectively. The Empire State (Tuesday) and Philly Fed (Thursday) manufacturing indexes are due. The former is expected to rise 1.2 points to 11.0 in August, the latter is expected to slip 0.5 points to 19.0 in August. ( A third consecutive decline). July industrial production (Thursday) is forecast rising 0.4%, the same as in June, lifting capacity utilization to 76.8%. July housing starts (Wednesday) should rise to a 1.220 mln pace after the 8.3% June rise to 1.215 mln. The preliminary reading on August consumer confidence (Friday) should edge up to 93.5 from July’s 93.4. It’s held in the mid- to high 90s since the election. As for July trade prices (Tuesday), import prices should bounce 0.2% after June’s 0.2% decline, while export prices should climb 0.3% following the prior 0.2% drop. Other economic reports this week include The August NAHB homebuilder survey index (Tuesday) and July leading indicators (Thursday).

The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) to the July 25, 26 policy meeting will be of interest, but anti-climactic, given the ongoing divergence in growth and inflation trends, and the upshot in geopolitical risks.

Canada: CPI report is the focus this week as inflation remains a key variable for policymakers. We expect CPI (Friday) to be unchanged in July versus June’s 0.1% dip. Manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are projected to fall 1.0% in June after the 1.1% gain in May. The hefty price driven 4.3% m/m plunge in June export values drives our manufacturing shipments projection. July existing home sales (Tuesday) and the July Teranet/National Bank HPI (Monday) are also due out.

Europe: Geopolitical risks continue to hang over the markets and have shown that Eurozone peripherals remain vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion. The ECB is still on holiday, but recent events will do little to change Draghi’s reluctance to commit to the further QE schedule just yet. Data releases are unlikely to change the central bank outlook. They include the final reading of Eurozone July HICP inflation (Thursday) as well as the first reading for German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) and the second reading of Q2 GDP for the Eurozone (Wednesday), none of which are expected to bring major surprises.

UK: The UK economy has been and is likely to continue to underperform the Eurozone and other peers. The latest Reuters poll found a strong consensus among 70 analysts for the BoE to leave monetary policy on hold until 2019. The calendar this week brings July inflation data (Tuesday), the labour market report covering June and July (Wednesday) and official retail sales numbers for July (Thursday).

China’s docket today revealed July industrial output, which was seen at 7.7% y/y clip missed and came in at 6.4%. July retail sales also missed at 10.4% (10.9% expected) 11.0%, while July fixed investment ALSO missed (8.3%) forecast was 8.6% y/y. Poor set of data.

Japan: Q2 GDP highlighted and was a big beat earlier expected growth to was 2.6% q/q pace from 1.0% previously, but came in at 4.0%. Revised June industrial production is due Tuesday, while the July trade surplus (Thursday) should narrow to JPY 300.0 bln from JPY 439.9 bln.

Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain in July jobs after the 14.0k rise in June. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.6% in July. The wage price index (Wednesday) is anticipated to expand 0.5% in Q2 after the identical 0.5% increase in Q1. The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the August meeting (Tuesday). Assistant Governor Kent speaks (Monday). Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis delivers a speech Thursday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
SeniorMarket Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, after an uninspiring session on Wall Street. The Nikkei is up 0.02%, the ASX gained 0.23% as oil prices moved slightly higher and the Hang Seng is up 0.72% in contrast to a -0.30% drop in the CSI. Earnings reports, geopolitics and currencies remain in focus. Ongoing Sterling weakness is propping up the FTSE 100, and U.S. stock futures are also up. EGB yields meanwhile are rising and Eurozone peripheral yields in particular were pushed up yesterday as Germany’s top court raised doubts over the ECB’s stimulus program. Finance Minister Schaeuble told Handelsblatt, that in his view the ECB’s QE program remains within its mandate, but the uncertainty ahead of the final court decision will hang over markets. Still, yields moved back down from highs during yesterday’s session and things should calm down further after the initial announcement.

FX Update: The dollar majors settled in narrow ranges. USDJPY lost upside steam as global stock market performance turned more mixed following a rebound phase. The pair settled in the mid 110.00s after a three-day rally capped out yesterday at 110.84, an eight-day peak. And right on the 20 day moving average. EURUSD planted itself around 1.17740 after logging a one-week low at 1.1687 yesterday, which was seen following robust retail sales and Empire State index reports out of the U.S. USD-CAD settled below the one-month peak of yesterday, at 1.2778, and Cable rooted itself in the mid 1.28s after logging a one-month low yesterday at 1.2846. A central focal point today will be the release of the FOMC minutes to the June policy meeting. (Details below)

Yesterday’s US Reports: Mostly beat estimates and lifted prospects for GDP in 2017, with solid July retail sales gains after big and broad-based upward revisions, and an August Empire State surge to a 3-year high of 25.2. The June business inventory figures tracked estimates, with a big 0.5% June rise that included a tiny retail inventory undershoot, and a firm round of July trade prices led by gains for food export and oil import prices, with a skewing of price strength toward exports.  Q3 and Q4 GDP growth estimates remain around 3.3% and 2.6% respectively.

Fedspeak: Kaplan repeated that the balance sheet unwind should start very soon, but gave no firm date, in a podcast with The American Banker. We’re looking for the FOMC to announce QT at the September 20, 21 meeting. But he also indicated, as he did Friday, that it’s appropriate to be patient on the timing of the next rate hike. Kaplan is a voter, and typically hawkish, so adds some risk to the call for a December rate increase. He believes there is still some slack in the labour market, but the firming jobs market should eventually translate into higher prices.

Main Macro Events Today               

FOMC Minutes – The Wall Street Journal wrote yesterday of 5 key elements: 1) Portfolio Pointers – any potential for more ‘definitive signal’ on balance sheet wind down in September sought. 2) Inflation Questions – potential for hot debate on cold inflation stats. 3) Another Rate Increase? – even some centrists have been disappointed by low inflation, could delay next hike. 4) Wither the Dollar? – weak dollar could inform debate on economy, inflation, exports, etc. 5) The Debt Limit, Again – just how much the Fed hits the ‘pause’ button or prepares to take emergency steps in the event of a shutdown could be revealed in the minutes.

Eurozone Q2  – Expectations are for a confirmation of the 0.6% (QoQ) and 2.1% (YoY) first reading.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk aversion is back. Sharp losses on Wall Street were followed by a largely negative session in Asia, with the Nikkei underperforming and down more than -1.2% amid a stronger yen. Concerns over Trump and the terror attacks in Spain have prompted investors to head for safety and Bund futures rallied in after hour trade, pointing to a fresh drop in core yields. FTSE 100 futures are down, although U.S. stock futures are stabilizing. Today’s local calendar has  Eurozone current account and construction output numbers, none of which are likely to detract markets from a focus on geo-politics.

German producer prices: higher than expected, with the headline rate falling back only slighty to 2.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y in the previous month. Annual price increases for basic goods eased further, but at 3.0% y/y the rate remains high and the pace of decline since the peak in April has slowed, despite the strong EUR. At the same time, energy price inflation picked up to 1.9% y/y from 1.6% y/y. Capitsl, and durable goods price inflation ticked marginally higher, but remains low at 1.1% y/y for each category. Bund futures corrected from the highs seen in after hour trade yesterday, but remain up on the day.

Yesterday’s US Reports:  reveal solid factory and labor market readings that signal ongoing upside risk for GDP and payroll growth, though we saw a 4-year low of 10.3 mln for the July vehicle assembly rate that shows a big hit from this year’s auto retooling pattern. Industrial production rose 0.2% in July after upward revisions that left an as-expected report. We saw a solid 18.9 August Philly Fed figure, with a big ISM-adjusted Philly Fed bounce to 56.9 from 53.0. Given Tuesday’s Empire State headline surge to a 3-year high of 25.2 from 9.8, producer sentiment appears to be stabilizing at remarkably high levels. We also saw a 12k initial claims drop to a lean 232k in the BLS survey week, leaving a lean 237k average thus far in August. Finally, leading indicators rose 0.3% in July to leave a solid 11-month string of gains, and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose to a 52.1 cycle-high.

ECB minutes: stressed need for caution with regard not just to changes in communication, but also the timing of the next announcement. On the one hand council members feared overreactions in markets to changes in communication, on the other hand some seemed to warn that leaving the announcement on the future of QE too late would likely see markets making up their own mind and leave the ECB with the task of correcting out of synch expectations. Council members noted the tightening impact of the stronger EUR and some raised the risk of overshooting currency markets, putting exchange rate developments into the spotlight going ahead. The ECB wants to maintain its flexibility with regard to asset purchases, but members also raised the issue of flows/versus stock of assets. Indeed the last time around Draghi reduced monthly purchase volumes, but still stressed that this meant a further expansion of stimulus, with just the pace of expansion reduced somewhat. It could well be that rather than laying out a full tapering schedule for the phasing out of monthly purchases Draghi will stick to a similar line and focus just on the next part of what is likely to be a very gradual reduction of QE. The minutes didn’t give a clearer hint on the timing of the announcement, beyond the “autumn” schedule Draghi already indicated at the meeting.

Main Macro Events Today               

Canadian CPI – The CPI expected to come in flat (0.0%) for July relative to June, leaving a pick-up in the annual growth rate to 1.2% in July from 1.0% in June. Gasoline prices plunged in June before improving only modestly through July. Indeed, the average gasoline price in July was actually modestly below the average price in June (prices started firm in June, then tracked sharply lower into near month end). Also, the loonie staged a furious rally in July amid the BoC’s rate hike and hawkish guidance. Finally, Ontario electricity prices should again knock total inflation lower, as time of use pricing was chopped roughly 15% by government decree. (This is one of the temporary factors cited by Poloz on inflation back in July.)

US UoM CSI  – The first August release on Michigan Sentiment is out today and should post an increase to 94.0 from 93.4 in July and 95.1 in June. Other confidence measures are looking stronger in August as well with the IBD/TIPP Poll rising to 52.2 from 50.2 in July and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort survey poised to average 51.8 from 48.3 in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher in quiet trade, after Wall Street managed to close with slight gains. Hong Kong stocks outperformed on positive earnings report, while Japan underperformed despite a weaker Yen. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher and it seems risk appetite is slowly returning, after being knocked back by geopolitics. Bund futures continued to rise though in after hour trade yesterday the 10-year Bund yield, which closed below 0.4% may make little headway at the start. The local calendar is hotting up today, providing some distraction from the political arena. German ZEW investor confidence and the U.K.’s CBI industrial trends survey will give a flavour of the economic situation on both sides of the Channel and the U.K. also has public finance data for July.

FX Update: The dollar has traded softer versus many currencies during the pre-London session in Asia, including against the euro, and commodity and emerging world currencies, though the greenback gained versus the yen. A revival in risk appetite brought some pressure on the Japanese currency, while there remains a degree of position jostling ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium (which starts on Thursday). USD-JPY lifted back to the low 109.0s after dipping yesterday to a low of 108.63, which by our data is 3 pips above last Friday’s four-month low. EUR-USD, meanwhile, ebbed back to the 1.1800 level after yesterday logging a one-week high at 1.1828, and USD-CAD carved out an 18-day low at 1.2547 and AUD-USD a three-session peak, at 0.7950. Cable has entered its fifth consecutive session of orbiting 1.2900.

Canada’s wholesale report maintained the outlook for weak June GDP, with a flat reading (0.0%) expected after the 0.6% GDP surge in May. Wholesale shipment volumes fell 0.7% in June. The final ingredient for GDP is today’s retail sales report, where a 0.3% gain is expected in total shipment values, which a larger (0.5% or better) improvement in volumes. Housing starts grew 9.5% to a 212.9k pace in June from 194.5k in May. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the downside. Energy export values plummeted 9.2% m/m in June while petroleum and coal manufacturing shipment values dropped 7.1%. However, the erosion in petro and coal values was driven by falling prices, suggestive of a less pronounced decline in the GDP report’s petro and coal volume measure. A flat reading in June GDP would leave a lofty 3.7% growth pace for Q2. Moreover, any pull-back in June GDP should be temporary. Hence, the broader theme of upbeat growth remains supportive of a 25 bp rate hike from the BoC to 1.00% in October.

Main Macro Events Today               

German ZEW Sentiment – German ZEW investor confidence expected to be particularly impacted by the latest spell of risk aversion in markets and are looking for a decline in the headline August reading to 15.5 from 17.5 in July.

Canada retail sales – Retail sales, expected to rise 0.3% m/m in June after the 0.6% expansion in May. Another firm month is expected for seasonally adjusted vehicle sales. CPI implies a drag on retail sales values from falling prices. Notably, falling gasoline prices should weigh on total and ex-autos retail sales, and hence we’d put the risk to the downside on this report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets mostly higher despite fresh concerns about Trump’s ability to pass his fiscal agenda. The Hang Seng continued to outperform on earnings optimism and amid strong volumes as markets reopened after a Typhoon interruption. The ASX is little changed as commodity profits offset Trump Concerns, but the Nikkei was weighed down by steelmakers. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher and U.S. futures are heading south as the Jackson Hole meeting draws nearer. European peripherals have been feeling the chill of tapering concerns after better than expected PMI readings and amid concerns that Draghi will use tomorrow’s speech to commit to a tapering schedule. This will likely ensure Bund outperformance versus peripherals, while Gilts as well as the FTSE 100 are underpinned by a weakening Pound. Today’s calendar focuses on the second reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as the CBI distributive trade survey.

Fedspeak: Yesterday Fed’s Kaplan reiterated balance sheet runoff should begin soon, while he also repeated he wants to be patient on further rate hikes. He was holding a Q&A session at a Permian Basin Petroleum Association luncheon. He wants more information on inflation trends. He attributed some of the softness in prices is likely the result of technological breakthroughs. But, he also believes that tight labor market conditions do argue for removal of some accommodation. On the oil markets he added that the they are in a fragile equilibrium currently. Shale and African drillers are offsetting OPEC cuts. But, there is a good chance of a global under-supply in 5 or 7 years. Notable is the fact that Kaplan is a voter who’s recently become more worried about the slowing in price pressures.

US reports: a big 9.4% U.S. July new home sales drop to a 571k rate followed 46k in upward revisions over the prior three months to leave a stronger than expected report overall. A modest Q2-Q3 unwind of a big Q1 sales boost from a mild winter. New home sales have risen 111% from the 273k record-low in February of 2011, alongside smaller cyclical climbs of 44% for pending home sales and 60% for existing home sales from lows in 2010. Meanwhile, U.S. August Markit manufacturing PMI fell 0.8 points to 52.5 in the preliminary print, unwinding some of the 1.3 point gain to 53.3 in July. It was 52.0 a year ago. However, the services index jumped 2.2 points to 56.9 after rising 0.5 points to 54.7 in July. This is the highest since April 2015. It was 51.0 a year ago.

Eurozone: Draghi hailed QE at a conference yesterday in Germany and forward guidance as success, saying that research showed that while forward guidance is “a useful instrument” “its effectiveness can be improved with other non-standard monetary policies”. Speaking at a conference on economic science Draghi said “research has confirmed that central banks are not powerless at the effective lower bound”, but stressed that policy makers must continue “preparing for new challenges”, and that “when the world chances”, policies and “especially monetary policies need to be adjusted”. Nothing there that directly refers to the future of QE. On Economic data prospective, Eurozone PMIs suggested inflation is on the mend, with Markit reporting that the “recent trend of easing inflationary pressures came to an end in August, with cost inflation picking up for the first time since February”. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI showed that manufacturing orders were boosted by “the fastest rise in exports for six-and-a-half years”. So quite a bit there to boost the arguments of the hawks at the ECB and dampen concerns about the strong EUR.

Main Macro Events Today               

Jackson Hole –  The symposium begins today and the markets will be wary of comments coming out of the annual central banker gather. Most important will be Friday’s speeches from Fed Chair Yellen (10ET) and ECB President Draghi (13 ET). However, past performance (at Jackson Hole) is no guarantee of future results. So, while monetary authorities have often used this venue to hint, or even outline, new policy measures, it is not expect that to be the case this time. There isn’t much new that Yellen can say given the recent update in the FOMC minutes and via Fedspeak and data. It looks as though balance sheet unwinding is a done deal for the fall. And it’s too early, and inappropriate for her to presage rate action over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the ECB has indicated Draghi will have nothing new to say and will focus on the theme of the symposium, “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.”

UK GDP- Q2 GDP data is likely to confirm growth at 0.3% q/q , half the Eurozone growth figure for the same quarter.

US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial jobless claims expected to rebound 6k to 238k for the August-19 week.

US Existing Home Sales – July existing home sales data is out today and should post a 1.4% headline improvement to a 5.570 mlnpace after a 1.8% dip to 5.520 mln in June. Other housing measures weakened in July with the NAHB dipping to 64 from 66 in June and housing starts dropping to 1,155k from 1,213k in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2017.

FX News Today

Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi mostly discussed regulations in their Jackson Hole speeches. However, Draghi did repeat in Q&A that “a significant degree of monetary accommodation is still warranted” and that policymakers must remain “on guard” until the inflation goal is achieved. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s Kuroda stressed in a Bloomberg TV interview that “extremely accommodative” policy will continue for some time. It looks like the big three central banks will remain in slow motion as they look toward the exit. While there’s no meaningful change seen in monetary policy near term, there are several risks ahead that will keep the markets on their toes. North Korea remains a clear and present danger, the U.S. debt limit is also a growing risk, while this week, the president is expected to go on the road to talk up tax reform.

United States:  U.S. markets will have a lot to digest this week, including key economic data, supply, and month-end flows, all while keeping a close eye on Washington. Hence, this week’s data, especially jobs and the PCE price index, will be important for the medium term outlook, though not crucial for the immediate term. No one expects action on rates next month, and Fed funds future are suggesting only about a 33% chance for a tightening at the December 12, 13 FOMC. Employment data has continued to come in strong, indeed “very strong,” as noted by Fed Governor Powell last week, and therefore expected more of the same in August. Payrolls (Friday) should rise 190k after July’s 209k gain. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, tying the lowest rate since May 2001. Earnings are expected to rise 0.2% following the 0.3% July increase.

The income, consumption data for July (Thursday) will be just as important for the FOMC. The data will help fine tune GDP forecasts, but more importantly provide an update on the PCE price index, the main measure for the Fed. Other data this week includes August auto sales (Friday), the August ISM (Friday) is expected to ease to 55.7 in August after sliding 1.5 points to 56.3 in July. The index is still holding firm and well above the 52.0 in November. Consumer confidence figures for August are due as well (Tuesday and Friday). Confidence is seen rising to 122.0 after climbing 3.8 points to 121.1 in July. The final read on consumer sentiment for August from the University of Michigan survey (Friday) should edge up further to 98.0 after the surprise 4.2 point jump to 97.6 in the preliminary report. Also of interest is the revised Q2 GDP data (Wednesday). Other releases this week include the August ADP (Wednesday), the August Dallas Fed and Chicago PMI, July Advance trade numbers, June Case-Shiller home price index, July pending home sales, and July construction spending.

Canada: June and Q2 GDP reports are the focus this week. GDP (Thursday) is expected to accelerate to a 4.0% growth rate in Q2 (q/q) following the 3.7% gain in real GDP during Q1. Meanwhile, the current account (Wednesday) is expected to post a -C$18.0 bln deficit in Q2, worsening from -C$14.1 bln in Q1, courtesy of a deepening in the nominal goods deficit in Q2 relative to Q1. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is seen falling 0.5% in July (m/m, NSA) after the 1.0% drop in June. But the loonie continued its sharp appreciation against the U.S. dollar, which we see driving the IPPI lower in July relative to June. Dealer reported vehicle sales for August are expected on Friday. The August Markit Manufacturing PMI is due Friday. Average weekly earnings for June are due Wednesday. The Bank of Canada’s day planner is again blank this week. The next scheduled event from the Bank of Canada is the September 6 policy announcement.

Europe: The data calendar is very busy and brings the first round of preliminary August inflation data as well as the latest set of confidence data for August in the form of the European Commission’s ESI economic sentiment indicator. Inflation expected to nudge higher slightly, but the Eurozone headline rate is still expected to remain clearly below the 2% limit in coming months, giving the ECB more room to ponder its options before clarifying the outlook for QE next year. After the somewhat better than expected PMI readings, the ESI Economic Confidence indicator (Wednesday) is expected to nudge higher to 111.4 from 114.2, helped by an improvement in consumer confidence and an expected rise in industrial sentiment. Indeed, the final August Manufacturing PMI (Friday) is likely to be confirmed at a very strong 57.4 suggesting a fresh acceleration in activity over the summer. German GfK consumer confidence reading for September (Tuesday) expected to remain steady at a very high 10.8. Ongoing improvements on the labor market are underpinning consumer confidence and PMI readings also suggest the job creation continued in August albeit at a somewhat slower pace than in July. Meanwhile the Eurozone unemployment rate for July (Thursday) is seen falling to 9.0% from 9.1%.

The calendar also has French consumer spending as well as German retail sale, Eurozone M3 sa (Y/Y) money supply growth, detailed Q2 GDP readings from Italy (Friday) and France (Tuesday) are likely to confirm preliminary readings of 0.4% q/q and 0.5% q/q respectively. Supply includes a German 2-year Schatz auction on Wednesday. The German HICP rate (Wednesday) expected to pick up to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% y/y in the previous month and the French rate (Thursday) to nudge up to 0.8% y/y from 0.7%, which should leave the overall Eurozone HICP rate (Thursday) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.3% y/y in July.

UK: The relative stagnation of the UK economy was in full evidence last week. July leading from the BoE feature in this week’s calendar (Wednesday), along with the August Gfk consumer confidence survey (Thursday), and the August manufacturing PMI survey (Friday). The net consumer credit expected to come in unchanged at GBP 1.5 bln and mortgage approvals to tick up to 65.4k from 64.7k.  The consumer confidence eroding to show a new low of -14 from -12 in the month prior, while the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.2 outcome after 55.0 in the prior month.

New Zealand’s slate has Q2 import and export prices (Friday). Building permits for July are due Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. Hence no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.

Japan: July unemployment (Tuesday) is pencilled in at an unchanged 2.8%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.51. July personal income and PCE are also due Tuesday, with the latter expected up 1.0% y/y from 2.3% previously. July retail sales (Wednesday) are seen up 0.1% y/y from up 0.2% for large retailers, and up 1.0% overall from the prior 2.2% rise. Preliminary July industrial production (Thursday) should slow to 0.5% y/y from 2.2% in June. July housing starts (Thursday) are forecast at a 1.5% y/y clip from up 1.7%. July construction spending is also due Thursday. The MoF Q2 capex survey (Friday) should rise 8.0% from 4.5%, while the August manufacturing PMI (Friday) is anticipated to have risen to 52.5 from 52.1. August auto sales are also due Friday.

China:  August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected to ease to 51.0 from 51.4, while the August Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) should slip to 50.9 from 51.1. Both remain in expansionary territory, however.

Australia: Australia’s economic data includes July building approvals (Wednesday), expected to fall 6.0% in July after the 10.9% y/y surge in June. Private new capital expenditures (Thursday) are seen gaining 1.0% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% rise in Q1. Construction work done for Q2 is due Wednesday, while private sector credit is out Thursday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Head of Financial Market Infrastructures, Payments Policy Department Sarah Harris participates in a panel at the Risk Australia 2017 Conference (Thursday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Markets started to recover from the latest bout of risk aversion during the late U.S. session and after Wall Street managed to close with slight gains, Nikkei and Hang Seng bounced back in Asia overnight. CSI 300 and ASX are little changed on the day and at least yesterday’s sell off was halted. U.K. stock futures are also higher, pointing to a rebound on European equity markets, which sold off Tuesday. Bund futures already started to come down from highs during yesterday’s late and after hour session and core yields should move up from yesterday’s lows, especially in the Eurozone where the expected pick up in German HICP and a still strong ESI economic sentiment reading should provide support. The U.K. has money supply and consumer credit data and Switzerland releases the latest KOF leading indicator.

New Zealand: The Statistics New Zealand  released yesterday Building Permits data for July,which arrived at -0.7% from -1.0% last month. According to statistics manager Melissa McKenzie: ” July’s fall was driven by the number of consented apartments, townhouses, and retirement units, which fluctuates from month to month. The fall for multi-unit dwellings was partly offset by an increase for stand-alone houses” . The RBNZ Governor Wheeler had a scheduled speech titled “Reflections on the stewardship of the Reserve Bank”, via Reuters, in which it highlighted that,  a lower New Zealand dollar is needed to increase tradables inflation and help deliver more balanced growth and also “to spook the market” as he particularly mentioned. “The appreciation in the exchange rate has been a headwind for the tradables sector and, by reducing already weak tradables inflation, made it more difficult to reach the Bank’s inflation goals,” Wheeler said. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28 and it is expected to keep the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end.

US reports: U.S. consumer confidence rise to 122.9 from 120.0 (was 121.1) in July and 117.3 in June left consumer confidence at its strongest level since the 16-year high of 124.9 in March, and at its second highest level since December of 2000. All the confidence surveys show a big climb into 2017 despite small pull-backs from Q1 peaks, and with a surprising resumed updraft in August. The Michigan sentiment index popped to 97.6 from 93.4 in July, versus a 13-year high of 98.5 in January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 52.2 from 50.2 in July and 51.3 in both May and June, versus a 56.4 cycle-high in February. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index rose to a cycle-high 52.8 in the third week of August, and is averaging a solid 52.1 thus far in the month, which would also mark a monthly cycle-high, versus a 48.3 average in July. Confidence, producer sentiment and small business optimism have climbed since October despite setbacks in the face of surprising inventory weakness, but a factory rebound that is trimming excess capacity, equity and home price gains, and residual hopes for tax cuts and stimulus spending.

Main Macro Events Today

German HICP – The German HICP rate expected to pick up to 1.7% y/y from 1.5% y/y in the previous month

UK Consumer Credit & Mortgage Approvals – The net consumer credit expected to come in unchanged at GBP 1.5 bln and mortgage approvals to tick up to 65.4k from 64.7k. The consumer confidence eroding to show a new low of -14 from -12 in the month prior, while the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.2 outcome after 55.0 in the prior month.

EU ESI-  ESI Economic Confidence indicator is expected to nudge higher to 111.4 from 114.2, helped by an improvement in consumer confidence and an expected rise in industrial sentiment.

Canadian Current Account- The current account  is expected to post a -C$18.0 bln deficit in Q2, worsening from -C$14.1 bln in Q1, courtesy of a deepening in the nominal goods deficit in Q2 relative to Q1.

US ADP and GDP-  August  ADP employment data should post a 185k headline following a 178k headline in July and 191k in June. Meanwhile, Prelim GDP q/q for Q2 expected to rise 0.1% from 2.6% released last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are hanging on to modest gains, as investors hold back ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report. Hang Seng and CSI stabilized, after being knocked back by profit taking yesterday and Hong Kong is set for a third weekly gain. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index completed is posting an eight-straight month of gains. U.S. futures are also slightly higher, U.K. futures are down, however, after European stocks were knocked back from highs in the PM session yesterday but still managed to close with solid gains. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings, with the Eurozone number expected to be confirmed at 57.4, and the U.K. reading seen nudging higher to 55.0 from 55.1.

US reports: revealed a largely as-expected personal income report, though with modestly stronger than expected path for “real” consumption, a small PCE chain price undershoot, and a savings rate drop to just 3.5%, alongside a 1k initial claims uptick to a still-lean 236k that signals upside risk for190k August nonfarm payroll estimate. The Chicago PMI remained at the lofty 58.9 July reading, versus a 37-month high of 65.7 in June, and this adds to Friday’s upside risk. Next Thursday an outsized spike in claims is expected with the impact of hurricane Harvey, given shutdowns across the Houston port and petro-chemical complex that could have far-reaching effects across the transportation sector. An assumption of 39k claims rise to 275k has been taken, but with risk of a much larger gain. For prior spikes, we saw gains of 96k with Katrina, 34k with Ike, 25k with Rita, and 22k with Isaac.

Canada‘s second half GDP outlook improved following the strong Q2 and June GDP reports. Consumption revealed the anticipated strong gain in Q2 after a robust Q1. Yet the June GDP report showed another solid month of retail output (+0.8%) after the firm 0.9% May gain, defying expectations that the households would temper spending going into Q3. M&E investment did slow to a 3.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, saar) but after a massive 28.9% surge in Q1. Also, this is the first back to back increase in M&E investment since Q3 and Q4 of 2014. And exports picked-up to a 9.6% clip in Q2 after anemic growth in Q1 (+1.5%) and Q4 (+0.8%). There were no tricks or special factors in Q2, Canada’s growth was/is simply robust. The  Q3 GDP estimate has been lifted to 2.5% from 2.1% and Q4 forecast to 2.3% from 2.1%. Growth is on track for a 3.1% pace in 2017, more than double the 1.5% rate in 2016 and above the BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet core inflation remains well below target and risks from abroad have perhaps intensified since July, which should keep the BoC on a gradualist rate hike path. Also, the loonie is likely a concern, as a more hawkish/aggressive path would strengthen the currency and temper the outlook for exporters.

Europe: revealed a steady unemployment rate at 9.1% in July. Jobless numbers have improved steadily and on the whole the labour market is looking better than hoped a year ago, although further structural reforms remain necessary to reduce underlying unemployment and bring countries closer together. At the moment jobless numbers still range from 2.9% in the Czech Republic to over 20% in Greece. The harmonised German rate stands at just 3.7%, while neighbouring France still reports a rate of 9.8%, which is actually up from 9.6% in the previous month. Macron’s government is set to present its plans for a reform of the labour market today, but so far the new French President has failed to live up to expectations. Eurozone Aug HICP inflation rose to 1.5% y/y, a tad higher than initially expected, but not a surprise after national data from Germany, Spain and France. The uptick in the headline rate was mainly driven by a renewed acceleration in annual energy price inflation, which jumped to 4.0% y/y from 2.2% y/y in July.

Main Macro Events Today

EU & UK PMI – The final August Manufacturing PMI is likely to be confirmed at a very strong 57.4 suggesting a fresh acceleration in activity over the summer. In UK, the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.0 outcome after 55.1 in the prior month. The manufacturing sector has been the relative bright spot in the UK economy, with businesses in the sector benefiting from the increased competitiveness the weaker pound has brought them in export markets, although the consequential cost pressures are being felt on bottom lines, while eroding real wages is curtailment on domestic market potential.

US NFP & Employment Rate – Payrolls should rise 180k after July’s 209k gain. That would bring the 2017 average to 185k, not too different than the 194k increase over the same eight months in 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, tying the lowest rate since May 2001. Earnings are expected to rise 0.2% following the 0.3% July increase. Data in line with forecasts would be consistent with solid economic growth as the second half of the year begins.

US Manufacturing ISM – The August ISM is expected to ease to 56.5 in August after sliding 1.5 points to 56.3 in July. The index is still holding firm and well above the 52.0 in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th September 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with stocks in Tokyo and South Korea still pressured by North Korea jitters, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to move higher. A stronger Yen added to pressure on Japanese exporters as did a weaker than anticipated Services PMI, and while war rhetoric has stepped up, global markets don’t seem in full on panic mode. The RBA left rates on hold, as expected and the ASX is moving sideways. U.K. stock futures are higher, after broad, but relatively modest losses in European markets yesterday. U.S. futures are in the red as Dow Jones and Nasdaq return from yesterday’s holiday. If U.K. stocks manage to stabilize, Gilts are likely to continue to move up from yesterday’s lows, while Eurozone markets could well outperform again, as tapering expectations are being pushed out amid rising geopolitical risks and a strong EUR. The European calendar has the final reading of the Eurozone services PMI, as well as the U.K. services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, and Swiss CPI and GDP numbers.

FX Update: The yen and franc retained a safe haven bid, although the degree of risk aversion was somewhat less than a run to the hills, and more of a weary expression of concern with regard to the North Korea’s ratcheting up of the geopolitical ante with nuclear testing. USD-JPY fell for a second day, logging a five-session low at 109.20. This extends the loss from the 110.67 peak seen before the disappointing employment report out of the U.S. last Friday. USDCHF declined to a four-session low at 0.9544, and EURCHF a five-session low, at 1.1367. EURUSD, meanwhile, settled to a narrow orbit of the 1.1900 level, holding below the1.1920 high seen yesterday. The USD index was near net steady, consolidating after dropping yesterday. AUDUSD saw some whippy price action into and after the RBA policy announcement and statement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% for the 13th straight month, as expected, while the governor’s statement was somewhat mixed in tone, but welcomed signs of slowing in the property market while jawboning about the high exchange rate (which, if sustained, would lead to slower economic growth). AUDUSD settled near 0.7950-60, down from the intraday high at 0.7985.

The UK’s August construction PMI disappointed, coming in with a headline reading of 51.1, down form 51.9 in July and the weakness level since August 2016. A sharp decline in commercial construction work drove the headline lower, which more than offset robust growth in residential building. Civil engineering activity was new stagnant. Reduced business investment and associated heightened economic uncertainty were reported by respondents to be crimping demand in the commercial sector. Job creation in the construction sector was its weakest since July 2016 (which was the month after the vote to leave the EU, which caused a temporary economic shock). The biggest take away from the survey is that new order volumes fell for a second consecutive month, as this portends sustained weakness in the construction sector. Eurozone July PPI inflation fell back to 2.0% y/y, more than anticipated and with June revised down to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y reported initially. However, preliminary August HICP data already showed a renewed uptick in energy price inflation that will likely be reflected in the PPI number for that month as well and at the same time, PMI readings suggest that the disinflationary phase in cost pressures has come to an end. So the overall tide in inflation seems to be slowly turning, even if the PPI number came in down in July.

Main Macro Events Today

EU PMI & Services – The final reading of August Eurozone Services and composite PMIs and July German manufacturing orders are out today. The final services PMI is expected to confirm the drop back to 54.9 in August from July’s 55.4, the composite reading should be confirmed at 55.8, up from 55.7 in July, which together with the much stronger than expected ESI confidence readings will back the arguments for the ECB to gradually reduce the additional amount of stimulus that is still being pumped into the economy every month.

Fedspeak – The generally dovish Governor Brainard kicks things off (07:30 ET) and discusses monetary policy and the economy at a breakfast speech before the Economic Club of New York. She’s been supportive of beginning the balance sheet unwind, but will probably counsel patience on rates. Uber-dove Kashkari attends two events, including a town hall meeting (at 12:30 ET and 13:10 ET). He’s also an advocate of patience. The hawk Kaplan speaks at the Dallas Business Club (19:00 ET).

RBA – Governor Lowe speaks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner in Brisbane.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

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