Date : 30th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Markets are back in the grip of risk aversion and Asian stock markets headed south after losses on Wall Street and Europe yesterday. Eurozone stocks in particular sold off Thursday after the unexpected rise in German HICP rekindled ECB tapering concerns. Quarter end positioning that saw tech shares leading declines added to pressure on stock markets, while central bank concerns means bond futures are falling in tandem with stocks. Eurozone spreads blew out yesterday again and with global central banks eying exit steps yields are likely to continue to trend higher going ahead. Today’s busy calendar has June inflation data for France and the Eurozone, French consumer spending, the Swiss KOF leading indicator as well as German labour market data and the final reading of U.K. Q1 GDP.

US reports: revealed an upside Q1 GDP surprise led by big upward consumption and net export revisions and a downward set of deflator adjustments that also lifted Q1 “real” growth. We also saw surprising Q1 inventory weakness that boosts prospects for GDP growth in Q2 and Q3, though we will keep these estimates at 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. We saw a disappointing 2k uptick in initial claims to 244k to leave a relatively elevated start to the annual vehicle sector retooling period, which we still think will depress initial claims into mid-July, and the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to 48.6 from 49.4.

Japan’s core CPI improved to an 0.4% y/y pace in May from the 0.3% growth rate in April. The modest pick-up was roughly as expected. National CPI grew at a 0.4% y/y clip in May, matching the 0.4% rate in April. But Tokyo core CPI (ex-fresh food, but energy is included in Japan “core”) was flat (0.0%) in June after the 0.1% gain in May. Tokyo CPI was also flat in June on the heels of the 0.2% y/y gain in May. The lack of growth in both measures of Tokyo CPI during June suggests a similar sputtering of national CPI growth in June, which could further distance the BoJ from the hawkishness that has gripped the BoC, Fed and ECB recently. The unemployment rate rose to 3.1% in May from 2.8% in April. Household spending dipped 0.1% y/y in May following the 1.4% drop in April. Industrial production tumbled 3.3% m/m in May (preliminary) after a 4.0% rise in April. USD-JPY saw minimal movement on the reports — the pair ticked above 112.0 from just below, reversed at 112.11 to slip back to 112.0 currently. The Nikkei 225 is 1.1% lower, taking its cue from the losses on Wall Street during New York’s session Thursday.

German May retail sales came in a tad better than anticipated, with sales rebounding 0.5% m/m, after falling -0.2% m/m in April. The three months trend rate rose to 1.1% from 1.0% in the three months to April. The annual rate still fell back to 1.2% y/y from 1.4% y/y. Nevertheless, a robust number, although official retail sales are a volatile indicator and only cover a part of consumption. Consumer confidence indicators meanwhile have been buoyant, suggesting ongoing support from private consumption to domestic demand and overall growth.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Final GDP & Current Account – The final release of Q1 GDP, expect to come in unrevised at 0.2% q/q and 2.0% y/y (medians same). The Current Account for Q1 expected at £-17.250 B from £-12.088B.

EU CPI – A slight deceleration expected in the Eurozone headline rate to 1.2% y/y from 1.4%. The ECB already scaled down its inflation projections thanks to lower oil prices and even if there is an upside surprise, as with the German numbers yesterday, it won’t change the ECB policy path, as the QE schedule is already laid out for the rest of the year and tapering is widely expected to start in January 2018.

CAD GDP – GDP expected to improve 0.2% m/m in April after the 0.5% run-up in March. Projection is a notable slowing from the 3.7% growth rate in Q1, it would equate to still solid momentum in Canada’s economy. An as-expected report will underpin the Bank’s “encouraging” narrative on the economy, supportive of the BoC’s aggressively hawkish turn this month.

US PCE, Chicago PMI & UoM Sentiment (Revised) – Personal income is set to rise 0.3% in May from 0.4%, while PCE spending rises 0.1% from 0.4%. Also out are Chicago PMI, which may dip to 58.0 in June from 59.4, with Michigan sentiment (final) June read seen steady at 94.5.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed with losses of 1.7% and 1.0% respectivelyas after falling below the support line of 25500. The Yen strengthened as North Korea test fired a missile, which weighed on Nikkei and Topix together with fresh pressure on tech giants, while the ASX rallied and is up more than 1.5% as the central bank left rates unchanged. U.K. as well as U.S. futures are also heading south after broad gains in Europe yesterday, which were led by Eurozone markets after a source story suggesting the ECB is not ready to lift the implicit easing bias on QE. Oil prices have halted their winning streak and are down on the day. Today’s data calendar is quiet, with only Spanish unemployment and EMU PPI, as well as the U.K. Construction PMI. ECB’s Praet and Nowotny speak and the Riksbank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged in its latest policy assessment.

FX Update: The Australian dollar dove following the RBA announcement, with Governor Lowe’s statement giving a mixed prognosis of the economy and, in particular, highlighting that an “appreciating exchange would complicate” the transition of the economy from the mining investment boom. AUDUSD fell over 0.6% in making a four-session low at 0.7604, and AUDJPY shed over 1% in making a low at 85.85, which is also a four-session nadir. The RBA left the cash policy rate unchanged at 1.5%, as had been widely anticipated. Elsewhere, USDJPY tipped back under 113.00, putting in some space from yesterday’s seven-week high at 113.47. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action, with AUDJPY having led the way. EURUSD declined for a fourth-straight session following ECB efforts to correct its tapering message. The pair logged a four-session low at 1.1336.

US reports: revealed a June ISM pop to a 3-year high of 57.8, with a jobs index rise to a sturdy 57.2 that leaves upside risk for our 185k June nonfarm payroll estimate on Friday. Yet, we also saw a weak round of May construction spending data after annual revisions that lifted historic levels but that left a weaker entry into Q2, hence the Q2 GDP forecast trimmed to 2.4% from 2.6% with likely flat Q2 growth for both residential and nonresidential construction. The revised data show an even more dramatic home improvement surge since Q1 of 2016 despite some flattening in these gains in Q2, alongside a significant slowing in nonresidential construction growth since last August after a strong prior climb. Available vehicle sales figures suggest a June repeat of the 16.6 mln May pace, versus 16.8 mln in April, and an 18.3 mln cycle-high pace in December. A flat June headline and ex-auto retail sales figures can be assumed, with hits to sales from an estimated 4% June drop in gasoline prices and restraint in sales of building materials from a winter-boost.

The UK June manufacturing PMI came in much weaker than expected, at 54.3 in the headline reading, down from 56.3 in May, which itself was revised lower from 56.7. The new export orders component ebbed to a five-month low of 52.6 from 53.2 in the prior month, which is disappointing given the health of international economies and the significantly more competitive level of sterling following the Brexit vote last year. The pound and UK yields dipped on the data. Sterling markets are now looking to the services PMI survey for June (Wednesday) to better gauge any potential slowing in the broader economy that the manufacturing report might have portended, with the data arriving with BoE MPC members becoming increasingly eager to hike the repo rate from its record low rate of 0.25%.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – The UK Construction PMI expected to come in at 55.0 after 56.0 in the previous month.

ECBspeak –  Executive Board member Praet, who has been stalling attempts to change the guidance more decisively, is due to speak today, while on the opposite end of the spectrum, head of the Austrian central bank, ECB’s Nowotny  is scheduled to discuss the future of the Euro in Vienna.

CAD Manuf. PMI – The markets reopened, but the U.S. is closed for the July 4th holiday. The June Markit manufacturing survey is due today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Japan and Hang Seng down as the stronger Yen weighed on exporters and lower oil prices hit energy producers. the front end Nymex futures picked up a bit after supply concerns hit prices once again, but remains below USD 46 per barrel. The ASX is managing marginal gains. FTSE 100 futures are also marginally higher, despite the rise in Sterling after BoE’s Saunders warned of rate hikes ahead. This should continue to see Gilts underperforming versus Bunds, although a stronger Pound also reduces inflation risks going ahead. In the Eurozone yields also continue to trend higher as the ECB is cautiously heading for exit steps, and while the 10-year Bund closed slightly lower yesterday, Italian and Spanish bond as well as stock markets underperformed, and market jitters will back the doves at the council. Today’s calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session as well as ECB minutes and Swiss inflation data.

FOMC minutes showed most officials said “idiosyncratic factors” were responsible for the softer trend in inflation, though several were concerned that the progress on inflation may have slowed. A couple of policymakers, however, saw rising inflation risk from the “undershooting of the jobless rate.” They also noted some financial market conditions had eased even as policy accommodation was being reduced. Committee members were divided over when to begin the balance sheet unwind, expressing a range of views. There were no clear insights in the minutes to better assess the timing of the balance sheet unwind. But, given the Committee decided to announce the balance sheet details at this meeting suggests the start could begin, as Yellen said, “sooner.” The Fed continues to believe a well telegraphed, and gradual approach to shrinking the balance sheet will limit market reaction. The Fed is also expected to delay rate hikes when it initiates the shrinkage of the portfolio, and that will give the data time to improve and hence support views that it’s idiosyncratic factors weighing. The minutes didn’t materially add to the markets’ body of knowledge on the normalization path.

US reports: Disappointing U.S. factory goods data, with price-led May declines for shipments, orders, and inventories of nondurable goods after small downward April revisions, alongside small upward adjustments in the available durables data for orders, shipments, and equipment, though with weaker inventories. The May data still showed a transportation and defense-led orders drop with lean inventories and resilient shipments. Inventories have yet to recover from the big 2015-2016 petro-hit, beyond last year’s Q3-Q4 bounce that was mostly reversed in Q1.

Eurozone: services PMI revised up to 55.4 with the final reading for June from 54.7 in the preliminary estimate, but still down from 56.3 in May. This saw the composite PMI revised up to 56.3 from 55.7 and versus 56.8 in May. Despite the drop in June, Markit reported that the Eurozone economy enjoyed its best quarter for just over six years in Q1 and while output growth slowed slightly in June, “continued robust inflows of new work and elevated business confidence kept the pace of job creation among the best seen over the past decade”. The average reading over the second quarter was the best since Q1 2011. Good news then that will back the ECB’s increasingly optimistic view of the economy, although with inflation still low and key players like Draghi and Praet insisting that this is largely thanks to the ECB’s expansionary policy, the central bank is not ready yet to commit to QE tapering. The UK June services PMI missed expectations slightly, dipping to a 53.4 headline reading after 53.8 in May.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB minutes – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts have be scheduled for 11:30 GMT today.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims –  Initial claims data for the week of July 1 is out today and a dip  to 232k is expected from 244k last week and 242k in the week prior. Claims are always volatile this time of year as we move through auto sector retooling season and this year there are additional risks from the big build up in auto inventories.

Fedspeak – SF Fed’s Williams (non-voter) will be in Australia (03:45 ET) and Governor Powell is set to discuss housing finance reform from Washington (10:00 ET), while VC Fischer will speak from Washington on “Government Policy and Labor Productivity” (11:00 ET). Focus will then turn to Fed Chief Yellen from next week’s policy testimony before the House next Wednesday (10 ET), as her Q&A will follow-up her written testimony’s public release this Friday (11 ET).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2017.

FX News Today

The FOMC’s decision to outline its balance sheet unwind last month kicked off the beginning of the end for the central banks’ emergency QE programs. Other central banks, including the BoE, ECB, and BoC have been following suit now too. The shift in tone was surprising given the downtrend in global inflation pressures and this will be a challenge going forward. But central bank-speak suggests policymakers are willing to look through that dynamic, especially as growth remains relatively solid. Right on cue, inflation and growth data will dominate global calendars, while Fed chair Yellen will give her semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony.

United States: U.S. markets will have a lot on their plates this week as they continue to assess the June jobs data, global developments in the aftermath of the G20 meeting, while looking ahead to Fed chair Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony and a batch of key data on inflation, sales, and production. There are several important data releases on the calendar, though not until Friday, which could help clarify the near-term picture for the Fed and the markets. The June CPI report will be the focus, with the headline expected to fall 0.2% thanks to the drop in energy prices, while the core edges up 0.1%. The annual pace should slow to 1.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y on the overall reading, while the core remains steady at 1.7% y/y. The Fed remains disappointed by the sluggishness, but the comments from the June minutes that the slowdown is a function of “idiosyncratic” factors suggests officials will continue to look through the data and concentrate more on economic growth. June retail sales will be the other report of note and are expected to post an unchanged reading overall .Other data over the week includes consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan (Friday), the June NFIB small business survey is on tap (Tuesday), along with a Yellen favorite, JOLTS (Tuesday). Jobless claims and PPI, along with the June budget, are due (Thursday).

Fedspeak: Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday) and the Senate Banking Committee (Thursday) will highlight. Her comments will be scrutinized for any sign that the timing could be accelerated, with an announcement on the portfolio at the upcoming July FOMC, with the start of the shrinkage in September. Or given the weaker trend in inflation, we will listen to hear any indication the slowdown in inflation is giving her cold feet on further normalization, pushing off action on the balance sheet and rate hikes further into year end, or even 2018.  Fedspeak from various others on the Committee will be of interest too. SF Fed’s Williams speaks from Australia (Monday 23:05 ET). Governor Brainard’s remarks on monetary policy (Tuesday 12:00 ET) will be closely monitored too. On the other end of the hawk-dove spectrum is KC’s George who will discuss the balance sheet and the economic outlook (Wednesday 14:15ET). Chicago Fed’s Evans (a voter) also will speak on monetary policy and the economy (Thursday11:30 ET). The hawkish Dallas Fed’s Kaplan attends and speaks at a conference on monetary policy (Friday 09:30 ET). The Beige Book (Wednesday) will be overlooked in favor of Yellen’s testimony, and won’t deviate from the moderate growth outlook.

Canada: In Canada, the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference (Wednesday) comprise the main event this week. A hawkish U-turn by the Bank via several recent appearances and interviews by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins have left a widespread expectation that the Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%.The data calendar is lean this week. Housing starts (Tuesday) are seen improving to a 200k pace in June from the 194.7k clip in May. The June Teranet/National HPI (Wednesday) and the May new home price index are also due this week.

Europe: European bond yields continue to rise, while Eurozone spreads are widening as ECB officials continue to mull exit strategies, despite the fact that the Bank still has an easing bias on QE and that tapering won’t start until early next year. This week’s data round is unlikely to settle the argument over inflation one way or the other as there’s unlikely to be an major revisions to final price data for June. German HICP (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5% y/y, the French reading (Tuesday) at just 0.8% y/y, the Italian at 1.2% y/y and finally the Spanish at 1.2%. Those would all be sufficiently soft to back the doves’ arguments who maintain that the inflation remains too low and that the economy still needs a substantial degree of monetary support. Meanwhile, the hawks can find solace in May production numbers, which are expected to rise 1.2% m/m, more than doubling the 0.5% pace from April, supported by very strong German and French numbers. The data calendar also has German and Eurozone trade numbers. Germany issues 10-year Bunds (Wednesday).

UK: UK data has been flagging an onset of a stagnation in economic growth, with last week bringing unexpected weakness in production, trade, and house prices, and in all three of the PMI sector surveys. The new minority government, meanwhile, has managed to survive the early weeks of its existence, and negotiations with EU counterparts on Brexit will continue as planned. The “Great Repeal” bill will start to be debated in the coming weeks. The calendar this week is relatively quiet, highlighted by June labor data (Wednesday). The report is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at the cycle low of 4.6% in May. A key focus for policymakers and the markets alike, will be average household earnings, as any fresh signs of weakness will provide an offset to the hawkish stance of the BoE. The BRC June report on retail sales is also due (Monday), which will also be scrutinized for signs of weakness as incomes have tipped into negative growth in real terms in recent months.

Japan: In Japan, June PPI (Wednesday) is forecast slipping to 1.9% y/y from 2.1%, while the May tertiary index (Wednesday) is expected to fall 0.5% after rising 1.2% in April. Revised May industrial production will be released on Friday.

China: The June trade report (Thursday) should see the surplus widen to $42.0 bln from $40.8 bln. June retail sales are set for a Saturday release, and are forecast up 10.5% y/y from 10.7% previously.

Australia: In Australia, the pickings are slim this week. Top tier economic data is limited to housing investment (Tuesday), expected to bounce 1.0% m/m in May after the 1.9% drop in April. The Reserve Bank of Australia has nothing scheduled this week. The next event is the July 17 release of the July meeting minutes.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has June retail card spending (Tuesday), which we expect will rebound 0.5% after the 0.4% drop in May. REINZ house sales for June are due out during the week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting is on August 10. No change is expected to the current 1.75% rate through year-end.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Nikkei and ASX underperforming and heading south as the Dollar weakened ahead of Yellen’s testimony today. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher U.S. stock futures are mixed as markets remain in the ban of central bank comments. Yields rose again across Europe and with central banks eying exit trend occasional dovish comments are unlikely to provide more than a brief halt in the uptrends in yields. Today’s data calendar has U.K. labor market data as well as Eurozone May production numbers. Germany auctions a new 10-year Bund.

US reports: revealed U.S. NFIB small business optimism index fell to 103.6 in June from 104.5 in May. It’s the lowest since the 98.4 in November. The index was as high as 105.9 in January, which was the best since the 106.1 print from December 2004. The all-time high is 107.4 from November 2004. The percentage of firms reporting plans to hire fell to 15% from 18%. On the other hand, U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings slumped 301k in May to 5,666k after rising 182k to 5,967k in April. The rate slid to 3.7% from 3.9%. But, hirings increased 429k to 5,472k, rebounding from the 261k drop to 5,043k. The rate improved to 3.7% from 3.5%. And quitters increased 177k to 3,221k after falling 94k to 3,044k. The rate inched up to 2.2% from 2.1%. The headline figure is disappointing, but the quit numbers, a Yellen favorite, should offset. Lastly, the U.S. wholesale report revealed a disappointing 0.5% May wholesale sales drop after a 0.3% (was 0.4%) April decline, though we saw a 0.4% May inventory rise that beat the 0.3% climb in the advance indicators report after a 0.4% April drop. The May sales drop mostly reflected a 7.8% price-led petroleum plunge, though weakness was evident across the durables data as well.

BoE MPC member Broadbent kept mum on interest rates during a speech he delivered before the Scottish Council for Development and Industry earlier. Broadbent was among the majority of MPC members to vote for unchanged policy at the June meeting, which had been a surprise for markets as three of his colleagues voted for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate. He spoke mostly about his view on Brexit risks, concluding that “put simply, a significant curtailment of trade with Europe would force the UK to shift away from producing the things it’s been relatively good at, and therefore tends to export to the EU, and towards the things that it currently imports and is relatively less good at.” Broadbent argued that this, at least initially, would both lower income as trade shifts away from services exports, which the UK has a comparative advantage in, while raising costs as production shifted more towards food and machinery, areas where the UK has a comparative disadvantage. Sterling took a 15-20 pip tumble versus the G3 currencies, with markets appearing to take Broadbent’s words as meaning that he won’t vote for a tightening at the next MPC meeting on August 3.

Fed Governor Brainard: it’s “appropriate soon” to start balance sheet shrinkage, she said in her speech on Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization. That’s consistent with the messages from the June policy state, the minutes, and the SEP, though it’s important that the dovish governor echoed that sentiment. The Fed will continue to assess inflation, especially in light of the recent softening, before deciding on the rate path. Policymakers want to move cautiously on further rate increases. She also noted that the currency markets could be more sensitive to the Fed’s rate actions than on the balance sheet.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Labor Data -The U.K. labour market report for May is expected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at the cycle low of 4.6%. A key focus for policymakers and the markets alike, will be average household earnings, as any fresh signs of weakness will provide an offset to the hawkish stance of the BoE.

Fed Yellen – Yellen’s testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee (Thursday) will highlight .Her comments will be scrutinized for any sign that the timing could be accelerated, with an announcement on the portfolio at the upcoming July FOMC, with the start of the shrinkage in September. Or given the weaker trend in inflation, we will listen to hear any indication the slowdown in inflation is giving her cold feet on further normalization, pushing off action on the balance sheet and rate hikes further into year end, or even 2018.

BOC Statement –  The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference comprise the main event today. A hawkish U-turn by the Bank via several recent appearances and interviews by Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins have left a widespread expectation that the Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher overnight and are heading for a strong week, for Hong Kong the best of the year, helped by a rally in banks and underpinned by cautious comments from Yellen, who doesn’t seem to be in a rush to tighten policy. Central banks remain the key focus and the announcement that Draghi will be speaking at Jackson Hole shortly before the September policy meeting has sparked speculation that he will use the chance to lay out the ECB’s tapering plans, coupled with remarks from BoE’s MacCafferty that the BoE should revisit the guidance on the unwinding of QE sent European yields higher yesterday afternoon, while capping gains in Eurozone equities and seeing the FTSE 100 closing in the red. Stock futures are pointing to a rebound in the FTSE 100, and Yellen’s comments may help bond yields to come off highs at the end of the week. The European calendar has Eurozone trade data as well as final Italian HICP readings.

Fed Chair Yellen: has concluded her testimony yesterday. There wasn’t an attempt to walk back from the cautiously optimistic tone from yesterday’s testimony where she hedged the softer inflation dynamics. Other than her comment that the balance sheet is unwound is likely to push up rates at the long end, there weren’t any big revelations yesterday. That indication has seen the 30-year yield jump 5 bps to 2.925%, with the 5s-30s spread has steepened to 101.6 bps from 100.9 bps yesterday. It was as narrow as 93.5 bps on July 3. She said Q2 GDP growth should be “significantly stronger” versus Q1, but reaching a 3% pace would be “quite challenging.” Yellen on the balance sheet said that their intention is to shrink the balance sheet in a “slow, gradual, and predictable way. Fed has set out a detailed plan on how it will achieve that. Once triggered, the unwind is expected to run in the background. The run off should result in some increase in long term rates compared to the front end, she acknowledged, and the FOMC will take that into account as it sets the funds rate. She expects the funds rate to remain the principal tool of monetary policy. She repeated that the balance sheet and the quantity of reserves will be reduced over the next several years, but won’t go back to the pre-crisis levels.

U.S. reports: revealed a smaller than expected PPI downdraft into mid-year despite falling oil prices, with a lift from rising food prices thanks to hot and dry weather in the upper midwest. We also saw sustained lofty initial claims levels into the holiday week of July that defied the usual auto retooling headline, likely thanks to ongoing vehicle sector weakness and some extended summer plant shutdowns. For PPI, the 0.1% June headline and core price gain beat estimates thanks to a smaller than expected 0.5% energy price drop alongside a 0.6% food price rise. For claims, a 3k downtick to a still-elevated 247k trimmed a 6k rise to 250k (was 248k) in the prior week. Claims are averaging 247k in July, following lean prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. Next week’s BLS survey week reading should lie within the mix of 242k in June, 233k in May, and 243k in April, though the recent up-tilt may imply an overshoot.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Trade Balance – May Trade Balance for expected to post an increase at 20.3B from 19.6 B last month.

US Retail Sales – The June retail sales report expected to be a flat with the ex-autos figure up 0.2% This follows respective May figures of -0.3% for both the headline and ex-autos and 0.4% for both figures in April. There is possible downside risk from the recent declines in auto sales as well as declines in gasoline prices. Meanwhile. June CPI should post a flat headline as well with a 0.2% increase for the core. This compares to the May figures which had the headline down 0.1% and the core up 0.1% and April where the headline was 0.2% and the core 0.1%. An anticipated dip in gasoline prices could weigh on the release too.

US CPI and Industrial Production – June industrial production data is out today and should post a 0.3% increase for the headline following a flat rate in May and a 1.1% bounce in April. Capacity utilization should tick up to 76.8% from 76.6% in May and 76.7% in April. Mining and factory employment both climbed in the June which could provide a tailwind to the release.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south even as rate hike expectations are being pushed out, as investors turn their focus on U.S. politics and rising doubts over Trump’s reform agenda. In China markets continued to fret about the prospect of tighter regulations and Sunac China Holdings Ltd came under pressure in Hong Kong amid media reports that banks are looking into the company’s credit risk. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on exporters as markets re-opened after a long weekend, although it was the AUD that outperformed. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, while oil prices are holding marginally above USD 46 per barrel. Today’s calendar has German ZEW investor sentiment as well as the ECB’s bank lending survey, while the U.K. has inflation numbers for June. The ECB meeting on Thursday continues to hang over Eurozone markets, with investors concerned that Draghi may already drop the easing bias on QE.

U.S. reports: U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.0 points to 9.8 in July, lower than expected, after rebounding 20.8 points to 19.8 in June. The latter was the highest since September 2014. Declines were broad-based. The employment component fell for a third consecutive month, sliding to 3.9 from 7.7, with the workweek at unchanged from 8.5. New orders fell to 13.3 from 18.1. But, prices paid edged up to 21.3 from 20.0, with prices received at 11.0 from 10.8. The 6-month general business outlook index eased to 34.9 from 41.7, with employment at 11.8 from 12.3. The future new order index was 33.4 from 42.2, with prices paid at 30.7 from 33.1 and prices received at 15.7 from 13.8. Capital expenditures are at 15.0 from 20.8, with technology spending at 11.8 from 11.5.

Final June EMU HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.3% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.4% y/y in May. The breakdown confirmed that the deceleration in the headline rate was mainly due to lower energy price inflation, which dropped back to just 1.9% y/y from 4.5% y/y in the previous month. Services price inflation meanwhile accelerated to 1.6% y/y. Still, while core inflation moved up from the 0.9% y/y in May, at 1.1% y/y it remains far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability and prices for non-energy industrial goods rose just 0.4% y/y, so plenty there for the doves at the ECB to argue with. Against that background Draghi is likely to stick to the message from June at this week’s council meeting and try to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW  – ZEW investor confidence today is likely to reflect market concerns about the impact of tapering as global central banks eye exit steps. A slight decline in the headline July number to 18.3 is expected from June’s 18.6. Those are still strong level, indicating that optimists outnumber pessimists, and so should not spark fresh growth concerns, although after some disappointing U.S. data and cautious comments from Yellen, it will underpin the halt in the rise in yields.

UK PPI & CPI – The June inflation report expected with headline CPI to remain at 2.9% y/y, a four-year high. The sharp y/y weakening in sterling following the Brexit vote in June last year has kindled inflation, and at least three of the current eight-member MPC committee (normally nine, with one position currently vacant) are now itching to reverse last August’s 25 bp cut in the repo rate. The PPI for June expected to decrease at -1.0% from -1.3% last month.

BoE Gov. Carney – BoE Governor Carney will give a speech today at the unveil of the new £10 note, in Hampshire.

US Trade Data & NAHB – The June trade price data will be of interest. Import prices are forecast falling 0.5% after dipping 0.3% in May, with petroleum the main factor behind the weakness. Export prices should edge up 0.1% following a 0.7% drop in May where declines in food and ag prices weighed. Other releases for today are the NAHB homebuilder survey for July and May Treasury capital flows .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, led by Japan, as the BoJ kept its accommodative policy unchanged and the Yen weakened. FTSE 100 futures are also higher, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. The eyes are now turning to the ECB, which is expected to follow the BoJ’s lead and keep not only current policy, but the forward guidance unchanged. There is some lingering concern that the central bank could already drop the easing bias on QE at today’s meeting, so Bunds could get a boost from Draghi’s attempts to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break. The European data calendar has U.K. retail sales, as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data for May.

U.S. reports:. housing starts rebounded 8.3% to a 1.215 mln pace in June, better than forecast, after the 2.8% decline in May to 1.122 mln. The gain breaks a string of three straight monthly declines, and it’s only the second increase of the year. Single family starts rose 6.3% versus -2.9% previously, while multifamily starts jumped 13.3% from -2.4%. Building permits increased 7.4% to 1.254 after falling 4.9% to 1.168 mln. Regionally, starts surged in the Northeast (83.7%) and in the Midwest (22.0%), and were up in the West (1.6%), while they declined in the South (-3.8%). Housing completions improved 5.2% to 1.203 mln after increasing 4.2% to 1.144 mln.

Canada: manufacturing shipment values grew 1.1% in May, as expected, but after a sharp downward revision in April to a 0.4% gain (was +1.1%). A 4.2% gain in transport equipment sales and a 2.4% rise in chemical sales drove the increase total manufacturing shipments during May. Manufacturing sales slipped 0.1% when motor vehicles, parts and accessories are excluded. A total of 16 out of 21 industries reported an improvement in sales values. Durable goods sales grew 2.2% while non-durables dipped 0.3%. Notably, lower prices knocked petroleum and coal industry sales values 3.4% lower in May. Manufacturing sales volumes expanded 1.1% m/m in May, supportive of continued momentum in May GDP. A 0.2% m/m gain in May GDP is expected after the 0.2% rise in April. The report is supportive of the Bank’s upbeat growth outlook, in turn underpinning projections for a near term rate hike. Another 25 bp move is expected in October after no change in September.

German: PPI inflation fell back to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. A tad higher than anticipated, but still continuing the recent downtrend as oil prices turn out to be weaker than previously thought. Headline Eurozone inflation also fell back in June as energy price inflation eased, so there is no really new message from the German PPI numbers, although at 2.4% y/y, the numbers remain elevated.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – Official retail sales for June expected at a 0.2% m/m rebound after the sharp 1.2% contracting on May.

ECB Rate Decision, Monetary Policy statement & Conference – After the ECB removed the easing bias on rates in June, but still maintained an easing bias on QE, the central bank expected to keep policy parameters unchanged at today’s council meeting, which will be followed by a longer summer break. The message today is likely to remain that the economy may be improving but still needs a substantial degree of monetary support and cautious remarks from Draghi should underpin bonds, even if a no-change outcome is widely expected.

US Jobless Claims – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 245k in the week-ended July 15. Meanwhile the July Philly Fed index should dip to 24.0 following the 11.2 slide to 27.6 in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd July 2017.

FX News Today

Both the ECB and BoJ met expectations as each left policy unchanged last week, though the outlook for ECB remains under the dark cloud of future QE tapering, while the BoJ gave up the ghost on its inflation target near-term. The FOMC is set to follow suit and kick the policy can down the road this week, though the markets will remain highly attuned to any hints over the outlook on inflation, the economy, and the balance sheet unwinding timing/

United States: In the U.S., the FOMC is not likely to make any policy changes at the July 25-26 meeting. The slowing in inflation is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, there has been some speculation the Fed could announce the start of QT (quantitative tightening) this week. The economic calendar resumes with existing home sales (Monday) forecast to rise 0.4% to a 5.64 mln unit pace in June. Various May home price indices are due (Tuesday), including the Case-Shiller and FHFA readings. Consumer confidence is also on tap (Tuesday), but expected to slip to 117.0 for July from 118.9, while the Richmond Fed index is seen steady at 7. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday), along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June. Durable goods orders are forecast to snap back 2.7% in June vs -0.8% in May (Thursday). Advance Q2 GDP should be boosted to 2.6% from 1.4% in Q1 (Friday), given upside risk on consumption, while Q2 ECI is forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.8% and final Michigan sentiment may be revised up to 93.5 from 93.1 previously. Fedspeak continues to run silent into the FOMC decision midweek before Minneapolis Fed’s dovish dissenter Kashkari breaks the ice with a moderated Q&A Chamber of Commerce event from 13:20 ET (Friday)

Canada: In Canada GDP for May (Friday) is the centerpiece of this week’s calendar. An 0.2% m/m gain is projected for May, which would match the 0.2% increase revealed in April. An as-expected improvement in May GDP would leave real GDP growth on track for a roughly 3% gain following the 3.7% surge in Q1, which would match the BoC estimate for Q2 GDP and hence be supportive of the already widespread projection for a near tear rate hike. Wholesale trade (Monday) is seen improving 0.7% after the 1.0% gain in April. The report typically has little lasting impact on the market, but will be the final input into the May GDP projection. May average weekly earnings and the CFIB’s Business Barometer index of small and medium sized business sentiment are both due on Thursday.

Europe: The ECB went into the summer break with a parting shot that once again acknowledged stronger growth while stressing that substantial monetary accommodation remains necessary and that inflation is not where the ECB wants to it see yet. This week brings the first key GDP readings for Q2 and French growth seen steady, while Spanish growth is expected to come in unchanged at 0.8% q/q. A robust second quarter would tie-in with improved confidence indicators, although looking ahead, it may feel as though that is as good as it gets for now, with July confidence indicators expected to fall back slightly. A decline in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 expected and a marginally better service reading of 55.4 which would leave the July composite PMI unchanged at 56.2. Risks are to the downside though, considering the second consecutive dip in German ZEW investor confidence and as the euphoria over Macron’s election victory fades and political risks ease. July Eurozone Economic Confidence is expected to have eased to 110.9 from 111.1 in June.

Inflation, meanwhile, remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. Growth forecasts may have been revised up, but inflation forecasts are being scaled back with the latest surge in the EUR doing nothing to change the picture that a strong currency and weaker than projected oil prices will keep headline inflation subdued.

UK: The calendar this week features the first release of Q2 GDP (Wednesday), which it is expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy. Other data releases include the CBI’s July surveys, with the industrial trends report (Tuesday) seen ebbing to 11 in the headline total orders reading after 16 in the prior month, while the distributive trades report (Thursday) is expected to fall to a reading of 10 in the headline realized sales figure after 12 in June.

Japan: Japan’s docket gets under way on Wednesday, with June services PPI due. Prices expected at 0.5% y/y versus the previous 0.7% outcome. The remainder of the calendar comes on Friday, starting with CPI data. June national prices are seen slowing to 0.3% y/y from 0.4% overall, and up 0.3% y/y from 0.4% on a core basis. June unemployment is seen falling a tenth to 3.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is expected at 1.50 from 1.49. June personal income and PCE are due, with the latter forecast to have risen 0.5% y/y from -0.1% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at a 0.5% y/y rate from -0.6% for larger retailers, and up 3.0% y/y from 2.1% overall

Australia: In Australia, the Q2 CPI (Wednesday) takes center stage given the global focus on inflation. The latter was discussed at the July 4 policy meeting. Trade prices (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% in Q2 (q/q, sa) for imports and falling 6.0% for exports. The Q2 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy (Wednesday) form Sydney.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has June trade (Wednesday), expected to reveal a NZ$150 mln surplus following the NZ$103 mln surplus in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Positive leads from the U.S., including corporate earnings, and broad-based gains in commodities helped the global stock move higher to continue in Asia overnight at least in the first part of the session. The CSI 300 is in the red, however, and the Hang Seng underperforming with a meagre 0.17% gain, and Japanese markets are down from early highs while FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are in the red. So, some caution is settling in again ahead of the Fed announcement today with some speculation that the Fed could announce the start of quantitative tightening as early as today. In Europe, the ECB is still far away from reducing its balance sheet, and while QE tapering is on the cards for 2018, Nowotny yesterday argued against committing to an end to asset purchases. Today’s calendar focuses on the first reading of Q2 GDP from the U.K, while all eyes will be on the Fed’s post FOMC meeting announcement and guidance. The big question is whether the central bank will detail plans to unwind QE, though we think not as inflation data has been benign and there hasn’t been any rhetorical prepping by members for such a policy shift since the issue was brought up at the June policy meeting.

Australia: Earlier today, the Aussie dollar took a rap following sub-forecast CPI data out of Australia, which came in at 1.9% y/y in Q2 versus the median forecast for 2.2% y/y, while the underlying rate remained stubbornly below the RBA’s target range. AUDUSD is just off its lows, at 0.7884 bid presently, showing a 0.7% decline on the day as the London interbank market take to their seats. The Aussie is showing a similar magnitude of decline versus the yen and euro, too.

U.S. reports: revealed upside July surprises for both consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed, alongside a firm but largely seasonal 0.8% May rise for the S&P Case Shiller. For consumer confidence, we say a July pop to 121.1 from 117.3 (was 118.9) that left this measure at its strongest level since the 16-year high of 124.9 in March, with a rise in the current conditions index to a 147.8 new cycle-high, despite drops in other July confidence measures. For Richmond Fed, we saw a rise to 14.0, after revisions that lifted recent levels to 11.0 (was 7.0) in June and 3.0 (was 1.0) in May, versus a 7-year high of 19.0 (was 17.0) in February. This increase bucked declines in other producer sentiment measures, though the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys should still tick down to 55 in July from 56 in June, 55 in May, 56 in April, and a 57 cycle-high in February and March. Nevertheless, yesterday U.S. Senate voted to move ahead on repealing Obamacare. Initially fifty GOP senators voted yes, with two voting no, for a total of 50, while not a Democrat voted for the measure. Hence Vice president Mike Pence as Reuters reported, forced to cast the tie-breaking vote. The EURUSD had retreated from 1.1712 highs, after failing to take out the August 2015 high of 1.1714. Profit taking out of London had reportedly been in play, with the pairing dipping to 1.1657 lows.

ECB’s Nowotny against committing to end date for QE: Nowotny said in an interview yesterday that he considers it “wise to step of the gas slowly”, adding that “the U.S. central bank also implemented tapering without committing to a definite timetable”. The QE program currently runs until the end of the year and the ECB iw widely expected to reduce monthly purchase targets again with a follow up program, but Nowotny’s comments suggest that the ECB may not yet lay out a full-time table for a final end to QE and indeed given Draghi’s very cautious stance so far, it seems more likely that the ECB won’t commit to a fixed data for the end of QE. The IMf also urged the ECB to maintain stimulus as underlying inflation and wage growth remains weak and with inflation expected to ease again next year, Draghi seems to have room for a gradual approach.

German Jul Ifo index unexpectedly jumped to 116.0 from 115.2. Expectations had been for a slight correction in the headline reading, especially after Monday’s disappointing PMI readings. The breakdown showed that the overall improvement was entirely due to a sharp rise in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward-looking expectations index stagnated. So the message is not unlike that of the PMIs, which showed ongoing robust growth, but a slowdown in the pace of expansion. A strong German Ifo figure, upbeat ECBspeak and the release of the BoJ minutes from the mid-June meeting all failed to stir markets, with participants looking to tomorrow’s policy announcement and communication from the Fed as the next key risk event. The yen has been following its often-seen inverse correlation with global stock markets, which have been mostly buoyant this week, underpinned by incoming corporate earnings and guidance, yesterday’s record print in the latest German Ifo indicator, and expectations for the Fed to affirm its slow-go approach to tightening following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today. The minutes from the BoJ’s mid-June policy meeting, released yesterday, meanwhile showed that members discussed the idea of QE tempering, but were still worried about the persistence of well below target inflation.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC – FOMC began day 1 of its 2day meeting. No major changes are expected in Wednesday’s announcement (14 ET). The Fed is widely expected to leave its 1.00% to 1.25% rate band in place due to the slowing in inflation. Committee members have also indicated they want more evidence of a pick-up in growth after the disappointing 1.4% Q1 pace, though recent data should be fulfilling that need.

US Home sales, MBA & EIA – The MBA mortgage market indices are due today, along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June, down from 610k in May.

UK GDP – The calendar features the first release of Q2 GDP, which expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th July 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk appetite turned negative during the Asian session, with equity markets, including U.S. index futures, turning lower from record highs. This backdrop will likely put pressure on EGB yields from the open. The European calendar today features a flood of data releases, highlighted by advance Q2 GDP figures out of France and Spain, and preliminary inflation figures for July from various key economies out of the Eurozone, which will be a big focus for markets given the ECB’s course to taper QE. French HICP is expected unchanged at 0.8% y/y, and German HICP is seen at holding at 1.5% y/y, which would also be unchanged from the previous month. Data in line with our expectations would not likely elicit much market reaction. The Eurozone also has the latest business climate survey for July, where the headline is expected at 100.9, down from 111.1 in the previous month.

FX Update: The Swiss franc tumbled for a four-straight session, driving EURCHF to a 1.1363 high, a level not seen since the SNB abandoned its former 1.2000 floor in January 2015. USDCHF, meanwhile, rallied to a one-month peak, at 0.9721. The price action affirms the sentiment sea-change that’s been afoot this week, underpinned by a combo of a more confident euro outlook coupled with a -0.75% deposit rate in Switzerland. Elsewhere, EUR-USD has been playing a narrow range in the upper 1.16s, roughly a big figure below the 30-month high that was seen yesterday at 1.1776. USDJPY settled back near 111.00, a level that has seemingly been exerting gravitation pull over the last week or so, with attempted rebounds failing to sustain during the week. The six-week low seen on Monday at 1110.62 remains in the frame. A tumble in equity markets, with Asian bourses and U.S. equity index futures down today, provided the yen some support. A flood of data out of Japan were mostly encouraging, though CPI remained low, with the BoJ-monitored core figure coming in at just 0.4% y/y, unchanged from May and meeting the median forecast.

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for the durable goods and advance indicators reports for trade and inventories that boosted Q2 GDP estimates to 3.0% from 2.6%, though another lofty initial claims reading suggests that auto retooling is unlikely to boost this year’s July data. For durables, we saw a 6.5% June orders pop thanks to a 19.0% Boeing-led transportation orders surge, though we saw a 0.2% ex-transportation rise that tracked estimates. The report was robust thanks to strong equipment data. For the advance indicators, we saw an export-led $1.0 bln upside June trade surprise and big 0.6% June gains for both wholesale and retail inventories. Initial claims rose 10k to 244k in the fourth week of July, leaving what is now a 242k July average, following similar prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. The July nonfarm payroll forecast remains at approximately 190k.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. GDP & ECI – The first release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal a 2.6% headline for the quarter following a 1.4% pace in Q1. Consumption looks poised for stronger growth during the quarter and expected a 1.2%, up from 2.4% in Q1.  Q2 employment cost data expected at 0.6% headline that follows a 0.8% clip in Q1. This would have the y/y pace of growth at 2.3%, down from 2.4% in Q1. Wages and salaries as well as benefit costs are both expected to expand at a 0.5% clip for the quarter from 0.8% and 0.7% respectively in Q1.

Prel. German Inflation – Eurozone inflation remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. We see headline readings unchanged from June at 1.5% y/y in Germany, 0.8% y/y in France and 1.6% y/y in Spain, which would point to a steady Eurozone reading (due next week) of 1.3% in July.

Canada GDP – GDP is expected to improve 0.2% m/m in May after the 0.2% improvement in April. An 1.1% rise in May retail sales volumes followed a 1.1% rise in manufacturing volumes. There was a 0.8% gain in wholesale shipment volumes during May. But housing starts tumbled to 195.0k in May from 214.8k in April, suggestive of a negative contribution from construction. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is negative. Energy export values fell 9.0% m/m in May after growing 3.9% m/m in in April.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st August 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st August 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, with a rally in banks underpinned by earnings reports and helping to offset pressure on exporters and automakers. The ASX outperformed after the RBA left rates on hold and warned the strong currency will impact growth and inflation.100 and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher. The FTSE already managed to rescue slight gains into the close yesterday, while Eurozone markets mostly ended in the red. With the EUR above 1.18 against the dollar and political pressure on German carmakers mounting, the DAX is likely to continue to struggle. Bund yields ended little changed yesterday, while Gilt yields climbed ahead of tomorrow’s BoE announcement and positive sentiment on stock markets should keep core yields underpinned. Eurozone spreads narrowed as peripheral markets outperformed, so at least so far Draghi is managing to keep tapering nerves under control. Today’s local calendar has final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings for July which are not expected to bring any revisions and German Jul jobless numbers. Preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP is seen steady at 0.6% q/q and the calendar also has the U.K. manufacturing PMI for July.

FX Action: USDJPY has eased to new trend lows after reports that newly minted White House communications director Scaramucci is out of a job after just 10-days. The pairing fell under 110.00, before recovering to 110.20. The EURUSD continues to edge higher to north of 1.1830. Initial market take is the U.S. administration is off the rails, though the W.H. staff move may ultimately be a positive, perhaps indicating that new Chief of Staff Kelly is in charge.

US Data Yesterday: U.S. Chicago PMI dropped 6.8 points to 58.9 in July, more than giving back the surprising 6.3 point jump to 65.7 in June. The latter was the highest since the 66.1 from May 2014. The 2017 low is 50.3 from January. The index was at 51.8 in October. The 3-month moving average edge up to 61.3 from 61.1. U.S. pending home sales index bounced 1.5% to 110.2 in June, better than expected, after tumbling 0.7% to from 108.6 in May (revised from 108.5). The high for the year was hit in February at 112.3 with the low at 106.4 from January (with the cycle high at 113.6 on April 2016 and a low of 76.4 from June 2010). The index is still well off the all-time peak of 127.0 from July 2005. Lack of inventory remains a problem. On an annual basis, the index is up 0.7% y/y, the same as in May. U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index rose 1.8 points to 16.8 in July after sliding 2.2 points to 15.0 in June. The latter was the weakest since the 12.5 in November. Note that the index was at 0.6 in October and had been basically in negative territory from January 2015 through September 2016. It hit a cycle high of 24.5 in February.

Main Macro Events Today               

Eurozone Q2 GDP –   The preliminary reading of Q2 GDP is expected to show a quarterly growth rate of 0.6% q/q, unchanged from the previous quarter. Consumption remains supportive for growth as the labour market continues to recover and low inflation is underpinning real disposable income. At the same time investment is starting to pick up as spare capacity shrinks and PMI readings, while starting to level off, suggests still high orders and a backlog of work. So a robust start to the third quarter that underpins the ECB’s cautious move towards exit steps, although remaining risks and modest wage growth mean Draghi is still keeping his options open for now.

U.S. Manufacturing ISM  – The July ISM is expected to tick up to 55.5 from 57.8 in June. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in early month sentiment. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines. The ISM has shown a recent high of 60.0 in February ’11 and a low of 33.1 in December of 2008.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.