Topic: Russia RU Central Bank Key Rate July 23 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
Central Bank Key Rate 6.3
Today's trade plan
Please note that I am using a forcast based on the average predictions as follows.
1 x 5.5%
8 x 6.00%
9 x 6.25%
19 x 6.5%
If we see a reduction of 80 bps dev from average, i'll take a sell
If we see a hike of 55 bps dev from average i'll take a sell.
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
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