forex software

Create and Test Forex Strategies

forex software

Skip to forum content

Forex Forum

Forex Software, Forex Strategies, Expert Advisors Generator

You are not logged in. Please login or register.


Forex Forum → Your Announcements → United States Non-Farm Employment Change July 2 2021

Pages 1

You must login or register to post a reply

RSS topic feed

Posts: 2

Topic: United States Non-Farm Employment Change July 2 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


Historic deviations and their outcome

June 4 2021  -116 deviation with some minor conflicts that were not big enough to overpower the shock of the headline. The move was slow and sustained and would have been easy to make some money from this!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/57168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU3MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS02LTQlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

May 7 2021  Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50023/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDIzO3Q9MjAyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

April 2 2021  A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35213/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MjEzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE




I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M)  0.3
Change in NonFarm Payrolls  720
Unemployment Rate  5.6
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y)  3.6



Today's trade plan

Today the forecast range is smaller than last month, This is good for us as we can tighten the required deviation. I'll be looking for a 200k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


Tradable pairs

EURUSD
USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Post's attachments

shutterstock_1377926345.png 450.38 kb, file has never been downloaded. 

You don't have the permssions to download the attachments of this post.

Re: United States Non-Farm Employment Change July 2 2021

Today we saw a +130k deviation from the forecast on the headline, which is sizeable, however not sizeable enough to avoid a conflict from the Unemployment Rate, which today deviated by 0.2 in the opposite direction. We saw USDJPY spike in the direction of the headline before very quickly going in the opposite direction, a reminder of how this report can wipe out your accounts if you're not careful.No profits made, no losses taken. Try next month again.

See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=59294;t=2021-7-2%2012:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S1

Posts: 2

Pages 1

You must login or register to post a reply

Forex Forum → Your Announcements → United States Non-Farm Employment Change July 2 2021

Similar topics in this forum