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Forex Forum → Your Announcements → Hungary HUF Interest Rate June 22 2021

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Topic: Hungary HUF Interest Rate June 22 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


Historic deviations and their outcome

July 21 2020  June 23rd 2020, We got a negative  -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x



I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement  0.9



Today's trade plan

Today we have a wide range of estimates as the Hungarian Central bank is expected to start hiking rates, but how much is unclear. Today we have the following forecast ranges.



High Forecast = 1.1

Low Forecast  = 0.6

Average Forecast  = 0.88



I will use a forecast of = 0.9 (Previous intetest rate = 0.6)



If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 0.6%, I will class this as a -0.3% deviation from the forecast of 0.9% and will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move.



If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.1% or more. I will class this as a +0.2%  deviation from the forecast of 0.9%, and I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.




Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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