#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Hey friends! Happy new week.
Here are the data highlights for this week:
15:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Sep)
15:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
16:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Sep)
21:50 US Fed's Williams speech
13:35 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
16:00 German Ifo Business Climate and US Consumer Confidence (CB)
17:55 RBA's Governor Lowe speech
07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
10:00 RBNZ Rate Statement REPORT
10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
20:30 US Final GDP
07:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Sep)
20:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)
20:30 US Core PCE Price Index; Core Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Spending and Income
Among next week’s data highlights, traders should watch closely: (1) Eurozone flash services and manufacturing PMIs, (2) RBNZ rate decisions and (3) US macro data released throughout the week.
Eurozone PMIs in focus
The #ECB restarted #QE and cut #InterestRates last week because of the Eurozone economy. The latest PMIs provide a leading indication of economic health. Businesses and their purchasing managers tend to react quickly to changing market conditions. If the PMIs – especially in the manufacturing sector – continue to paint a bleak picture, then the single currency could come under renewed pressure in early next week. The #EURUSD bulls huffed and puffed this week, but macro concerns kept a lid on the exchange rate. With the Fed turning out to be less dovish than expected, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for this popular exchange rate.
#RBNZ likely to hold rates steady after the surprise 0.5% cut
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to hold interest rates unchanged at the historically-low rate of 1.0% after delivering a shock 50 basis point cut when a 25bp cut was expected in the previous meeting in August. In total, rates have been trimmed by the RBNZ by 75 basis points since May. Going forward, the rate setters at the central bank will likely sit on theirs hands and monitor the ongoing trade situation between the US and China. However, if the RBNZ makes any hints of forthcoming rate cuts then the NZD/USD could drop further lower after it hit a new 2019 low below the old low of 0.6270 on Friday to drop to 0.6255 at the time of this writing.
US-China Trade and #Brexit back to forefront
Deputy trade negotiators from the US and China resumed talks for the first time in almost two months this week. Their aim is to lay the groundwork for high-level talks in early October. Will they finally bridge their differences and find a way out of the trade war? As the high levels talks near, expect more tweets and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, which could highs some risk-sensitive markets. However, for the time being, stock markets remain supported with US equity indices near record levels after a week of central bank bonanza, where the #message was loud and clear: global #InterestRates will remain at or near record #lows for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, hopes over an imminent Brexit breakthrough rose earlier this week and the GBP/USD shot above the 1.25 handle to trade 20 pips shy of 1.26 by early Friday session. However, it then sold off sharply after the Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney dashed those hopes by saying: “I think we need to be honest with people and say that we’re not close to that deal right now. But there is an intent I think by all sides to try and find a landing zone that everybody can live with here."
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